Executive Summary

Q2 delivered $1.57B revenue and the first positive Adjusted EBITDA ($23M, 1.5% margin) in three years as management prioritized underwriting discipline and marketing efficiency; Contribution Margin was 4.4% and slightly below prior guide due to an older inventory mix .
Management moved rapidly from pilot to broad rollout of an agent-led platform: partner agents live in every market; early data show 2x more customers reach a final underwritten cash offer and 5x higher listing conversions; “Cash Plus” launched as a hybrid, capital-light product to improve risk-adjusted returns .
Macro deteriorated through Q2 (slowing clearance, rising delistings); spreads were raised and acquisitions slowed, exiting Q2 on a lower pace. Q3 guide embeds continued softness: revenue $800–$875M, Contribution Profit $22–$29M (2.8–3.3%), Adjusted EBITDA $(28)–$(21)M; Q4 revenue expected to decline sequentially similar to Q3, and marketing spend to be materially lower YoY .
Balance sheet/liquidity improved: $789M cash, $7.8B non-recourse borrowing capacity (of which $1.8B drawn), and a $325M 7.0% 2030 convertible issuance that extended maturities and added ~$75M cash .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- First positive Adjusted EBITDA since 2022: “we achieved our first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability… even as housing market conditions continued to deteriorate” (CEO) .
- Platform pivot traction: “partner agents are live in every market,” with “twice as many customers… to a final underwritten cash offer” and “5x” listing conversion; Cash Plus expands capital-light earnings potential .
- Liquidity and terming out converts: $325M 7.0% 2030 Notes exchanged/issued, extending $246M 2026 converts and adding ~$75M cash .
What Went Wrong
- Contribution mix headwind: Contribution Margin 4.4%, “just below” prior 4.5–4.9% guide due to older, lower-margin homes; Contribution Profit $69M vs $95M in 2Q24 .
- Macro weakening through quarter: slowing clearance, decade‑high delistings; spreads raised further; acquisitions fell 63% YoY to 1,757 and exited Q2 on a lower trajectory .
- H2 outlook resets: Q3 guided to lower revenue and negative Adjusted EBITDA; Q4 revenue to decline sequentially similar to Q3; marketing down materially YoY given spreads and seasonality .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.511	$1.084	$1.153	$1.567
Gross Profit ($MM)	$129	$85	$99	$128
Gross Margin (%)	8.5%	7.8%	8.6%	8.2%
Contribution Profit ($MM)	$95	$38	$54	$69
Contribution Margin (%)	6.3%	3.5%	4.7%	4.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$(5)	$(49)	$(30)	$23
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	(0.3)%	(4.5)%	(2.6)%	1.5%
GAAP Net Loss ($MM)	$(92)	$(113)	$(85)	$(29)
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$(0.13)	$(0.16)	$(0.12)	$(0.04)
Homes Sold (Units)	4,078	2,822	2,946	4,299
Homes Purchased (Units)	4,771	2,951	3,609	1,757

KPI and Operating Metrics

KPI	Q2 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Inventory ($USD Billions)	$2.234	$2.159	$2.362	$1.530
Homes in Inventory (Units)	6,399	6,417	7,080	4,538
% Inventory >120 Days	14%	46%	27%	36%
Contribution Profit per Home ($000s)	$23	$13	$18	$16
Advertising Expense ($MM)	$21	$23	$24	$7

Estimate Comparison

S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 revenue/EPS was unavailable; therefore, we cannot report beats/misses versus the Street. Note: Opendoor exceeded the high end of its own revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges for Q2 (revenue $1.45–$1.525B guided; Adj. EBITDA $10–$20M guided) .
S&P Global estimates for Q3/Q4 2025 were also unavailable via our source at time of analysis (no values returned).

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	Q3 2025	N/A	$800–$875M	New
Contribution Profit	Q3 2025	N/A	$22–$29M (2.8%–3.3% margin)	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q3 2025	N/A	$(28)M – $(21)M	New
Stock‑based Compensation	Q3 2025	N/A	$10–$12M	New
Revenue cadence	Q4 2025	N/A	Sequential decline similar to Q3	Lower sequentially
Marketing spend	H2 2025	N/A	Down materially YoY; heavier in Q4/Q1 seasonally	Lower YoY

Context: Q2 actuals vs Q2 guide (set on May 6) — revenue beat the high end ($1.57B vs $1.525B), Contribution Profit landed near midpoint ($69M vs $65–$75M), and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end ($23M vs $10–$20M) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q4 2024 (Q-2)	Q1 2025 (Q-1)	Q2 2025 (Current)	Trend
AI/Pricing tech	—	Enhanced segmentation, added home-level features (e.g., school district, competition) to sharpen pricing	“Proprietary data fuels our AI” powering offers; Key Agent app adds high-fidelity assessments to feed algorithms	Expanding AI inputs and field data
Platform shift (agent-led)	—	Piloted pairing Opendoor referrals with curated local agents to improve conversion and monetize leads	Partner agents live in every market; 2x more reach final cash offer; 5x listing conversion; Cash Plus launched and ramping	Rapid rollout; early signs positive
Macro/tariffs/mortgages	—	Rates near 7%, clearance down ~25% YoY, delistings up >30%	Worsening housing macro; rising delistings; lowered acquisition pace; maintaining above‑normal spreads	Deteriorated into Q2; cautious H2
Marketing cadence	Heavier in Q4/Q1 seasonally (strategy set heading into 2025)	Explicitly aligned spend to seasonality; Q2 marketing meaningfully lower than Q1	Q3 lighter; Q4 to ramp; FY H2 marketing materially down YoY	Efficiency focus; seasonal
Balance sheet/capital	—	Extended/renewed multiple facilities (mezzanine/senior)	Issued $325M 2030 converts; extended 2026 converts; +$75M cash; $7.8B capacity; $1.8B outstanding	Improved term/liquidity profile
Inventory health	—	Inventory up to 7,080 homes entering Q2; %>120 days 27%	Inventory down to 4,538 homes; %>120 days 36% amid slow clearance	Lower inventory; aging mix pressure

Management Commentary

Strategic shift: “We are making the most important strategic shift in our history, moving from a single product to a distributed platform with multiple offerings delivered through agents… This is a flywheel” (CEO) .
Early platform proof points: “Twice as many customers are reaching a final underwritten cash offer… Listing conversion rates are 5x greater… We unlock more capital‑light earnings via our share of listing commission revenue” .
H2 posture: “We believe housing market weakness will persist… we further raised spreads, exiting the quarter with a materially lower acquisition pace… we expect sequential acquisition and resale volume declines” (CEO/CFO) .
Profitability milestone: “At $1.6B in revenue, we achieved our first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability in three years” (CFO) .
Cash Plus economics: Better risk‑adjusted product: less upfront capital, greater downside protection, and targets similar Contribution Margin with higher likelihood of achieving it (CEO/CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

Macro run-rate and guide assumptions: Conditions deteriorated through Q2 but “seem… stable” near current weak levels; Q3 and Q4 assume this macro plus normal seasonality (CFO) .
Timing of platform impact: Expect improvements in conversion and contracts before P&L; meaningful P&L impact in 2026 due to lags from contract-to-sale and current ramp stage (CEO) .
Sequential revenue cadence: Q4 revenue expected to decline sequentially by a similar percentage as Q3 guide (CFO) .
Marketing cadence: Lighter in Q2/Q3; heavier in Q4/Q1 to acquire ahead of spring selling season (CFO) .
Spreads/home price dynamics: Spreads above historical norms to target Contribution Margin; HPA window in 2025 was unusually short; seasonal HPA expected to turn negative into fall/winter (CFO) .
Acquisitions outlook: Expect sequential pickup in Q4 vs Q3 subject to macro, spreads, and platform progress (CFO) .
Economics of Cash Plus/listing: Cash Plus lowers upfront capital and protects downside; listing outcomes are high‑margin, capital‑light revenue via commission sharing at the high end of industry standard due to lead quality (CEO/CFO) .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable for Q2 2025 and forward at the time of analysis (no values returned via our S&P Global data connection). As such, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs the Street for revenue or EPS.
Company vs self-guidance: Q2 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of guidance; Contribution Profit landed near midpoint; Contribution Margin slightly below the prior guided range due to older inventory mix .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution: The return to positive Adjusted EBITDA underscores operating leverage and expense discipline; however, H2 guide implies a step‑down with negative Adjusted EBITDA as lower acquisitions and older inventory mix weigh on margins .
Strategy pivot: Agent‑led distribution and Cash Plus broaden distribution and add capital‑light revenue streams; early conversion and listing data are encouraging, but management frames 2026 as the first year of more visible P&L impact .
Macro risk: Elevated spreads and weak clearance reflect a difficult housing backdrop; guidance assumes continued softness and seasonality; monitor clearance, delistings, and rate trajectory as key drivers of pace and margins .
Liquidity/term risk mitigated: $789M cash, long‑dated non‑recourse capacity, and 2030 converts improve flexibility to navigate macro and fund product/platform evolution .
Near‑term trading lens: Stock catalysts center on conversion metrics from the agent platform, Cash Plus rollout to all markets, and any macro inflection in clearance/rates; near‑term revenue and EBITDA headwinds are well telegraphed .
Medium‑term thesis: If platform ramp sustains higher conversion and monetization of leads while preserving target Contribution Margin via risk‑adjusted products, Opendoor can expand capital‑light earnings and improve durability across cycles .

Appendix: Additional Context and Cross‑References

Q2 press release headline metrics and Q3 outlook summarized here .
Non‑GAAP adjustments (what’s in/out) and reconciliations for Adjusted Gross Profit, Contribution Profit, Adjusted Net Loss, and Adjusted EBITDA detailed here .
CEO transition (post‑quarter) and interim leadership appointed Aug 15, 2025 (potential narrative overhang/interest) .

Segment disclosure: Opendoor does not present reportable segments in these filings; analysis focuses on consolidated results .

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary