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OI

OppFi Inc. (OPFI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record results: Total revenue $155.1M (+13.5% y/y), Adjusted EPS $0.46 (+39% y/y), Net income $75.9M (+136.9% y/y); ending receivables hit $481.0M (+16.3% y/y) .
  • Consensus comparison: Revenue slightly above S&P Global consensus ($155.1M vs $154.6M*), while Primary EPS (aligned with Adjusted EPS) beat by $0.14 ($0.46 vs $0.32*) — a meaningful upside on profitability .
  • Guidance raised for the third time in 2025: Revenue to $590–$605M, Adjusted net income to $137–$142M, Adjusted EPS to $1.54–$1.60; management cites strong originations, automation, and disciplined expense control .
  • Capital and funding catalysts: New $150M revolving facility lowered financing spread by 150 bps (SOFR+6.0% vs SOFR+7.5%), enhancing forward interest expense trajectory and growth capacity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarterly revenue and profitability driven by originations growth, higher automation (auto-approval 79.1%), and cost discipline; management raised guidance for the third time this year .
  • Expense leverage: total expenses as a % of revenue fell to 36.2% (−490 bps y/y) and interest expense declined with proactive debt actions; CFO emphasized strong net revenue growth and expense control .
  • Funding cost improvement: new four-year $150M revolver at SOFR+6.0% (from +7.5%) strengthens unit economics and supports receivables growth .
    • CEO: “We are raising earnings guidance for the third time this year... auto approval rates increased to 79%” .
    • CEO: Model 6.1 refit “designed to identify riskier borrower populations better... enhance risk pricing” .

What Went Wrong

  • Credit modestly tighter: net charge-offs as % of revenue ticked up to 35.1% (from 34.3% y/y), reflecting elevated charge-offs from early summer vintages, partly offset by higher recoveries .
  • Slight yield compression: average yield decreased to 133.2% (from 133.9% y/y), as losses impacted accrual dynamics; management expects yield stability/rebound into Q4 .
  • Early payment stress in quarter prompted selective tightening; management flagged potential seasonal elevation in charge-offs into Q4 while maintaining strong unit economics via risk-based pricing .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$140.268 $142.443 $155.089
Net Income ($USD Millions)$20.390 $11.480 $75.933
Net Income Attributable to OppFi Inc. ($USD Millions)$(11.372) $(20.780) $41.635
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$33.817 $39.401 $40.727
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.38 $0.45 $0.46

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Net Originations ($USD Thousands)$189,168 $233,873 $246,109
Total Retained Net Originations ($USD Thousands)$168,963 $205,706 $215,237
Ending Receivables ($USD Thousands)$406,579 $437,750 $481,037
Net Charge-Offs as % of Total Revenue34.6% 31.9% 35.1%
Net Charge-Offs as % of Avg. Receivables, Annualized47% 43% 46.7%
Average Yield, Annualized135.8% 136.1% 133.2%
Auto-Approval Rate79% 80% 79.1%

Notes:

  • OppFi reports consolidated results without segment revenue disclosure; KPIs above primarily reflect the OppLoans product (excludes SalaryTap and OppFi Card) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$578–$605 $590–$605 Raised (low end)
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025$125–$130 $137–$142 Raised
Adjusted EPS ($USD)FY 2025$1.39–$1.44 (≈90M diluted shares) $1.54–$1.60 (≈89M diluted shares) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Credit & Risk-Based PricingQ1: credit modeling refinements, improved charge-off metrics, raised FY ANI guidance . Q2: Model 6 performance, dynamic pricing, charge-offs as % of revenue improved; cautious macro stance .Model 6.1 refit enhances segmentation and risk pricing; selective tightening amid early payment stress; expect annualized charge-offs as % of revenue to decline y/y .Improving tools; vigilant stance; seasonal credit elevation acknowledged.
Yield/Unit EconomicsQ2: Yield hit 136% (+130 bps y/y); management guided stable-to-slightly increasing yields .Yield dipped to 133.2%; management expects stability and rebound in Q4, with strong unit economics via pricing/recoveries .Near-term seasonal pressure; expectation of stabilization.
Automation & Tech (LOLA, AI)Q2: Introduced LOLA, “loan origination system of the future,” to integrate AI, boost approvals, reduce cycle times .LOLA in testing; migration planned Q1 2026; expected to improve funnel metrics, approvals, servicing, recoveries .Execution advancing; migration timelines set.
Marketing ChannelsQ2: Higher CAC as growth lever; investments in partnerships, direct response, search .Connected TV testing began; direct mail 4.2% of originations with runway; CAC up $20–$30 per, acceptable ROI .Diversifying channels; measured scaling.
Funding & Capital AllocationQ2: Funding capacity ~$603M, debt reduction; discussed buybacks/dividend .New $150M facility lowers spread; buybacks continued post-Q3 ($3.2M); focus on defending share price and M&A optionality .Strengthened funding; ongoing capital returns/optionality.
Regulatory/MacroQ2: Macro watch on jobs, inflation; dynamic model response .Government shutdown hardships monitored; fair programs; no alarm in bank data; watch auto delinquencies impact on ability to repay .Monitoring; no major operational changes.

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “OppFi achieved another record quarter of revenue, profitability, originations, and ending receivables… we are raising earnings guidance for the third time this year” .
  • CEO on Model 6.1: “Refit is designed to identify riskier borrower populations better while incrementally improving volume… enhance risk pricing across segments” .
  • CFO: “Adjusted net income surged 41%… Adjusted EPS grew to $0.46… GAAP net income benefited from a $32M non-cash gain related to warrants; this does not impact underlying profitability” .
  • CFO on capital: “$75M cash and restricted cash; $600M total funding capacity; we repurchased 710k shares for $7.4M in Q3 and an additional 317k shares for $3.2M since quarter-end” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Credit tone: Slightly higher early payment issues, selective tightening; expect annualized charge-offs as % of revenue to decline y/y; focus on dynamic risk-based pricing and recoveries to preserve unit economics .
  • Yield expectations: Seasonally lower yields in Q3; management anticipates stabilization and rebound in Q4 under risk-based pricing .
  • Marketing: Direct mail early-stage at 4.2% of originations with potential to scale; connected TV testing underway; CAC up $20–$30 per with acceptable returns, especially for lower-risk segments .
  • Recoveries: Strong recoveries sustained for two years, performing at/above plan, embedded in unit economics .
  • Capital allocation: Ongoing buybacks when shares are undervalued; active M&A evaluation; balanced growth and profitability priorities .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$137,710,330*$141,194,750*$154,564,000*
Actual Revenue ($USD)$140,268,000 $142,443,000 $155,089,000
Variance vs Consensus ($USD)+$2,557,670*+$1,248,250*+$525,000*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.25333*$0.295*$0.32*
Actual Primary EPS/Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.38 $0.45 $0.46
Variance vs Consensus ($USD)+$0.12667*+$0.155*+$0.14*
  • Significant beat: Primary EPS in Q3 ($0.46 vs $0.32*) — bolded in implications below.
  • FY 2025 Revenue consensus $597,925,250* is consistent with raised guidance $590–$605M .

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Profitability beat: Primary/Adjusted EPS materially outperformed consensus; revenue was slightly above expectations — implies upward estimate revisions focused on EPS/margins rather than top line. Bold: EPS beat of $0.14 vs $0.32* .
  • Guidance momentum: Third raise in 2025 (ANI/EPS) signals confidence in originations growth, automation, and cost control — a positive narrative driver near term .
  • Credit managed actively: While charge-offs ticked up seasonally, Model 6.1 and risk-based pricing/tightening aim to preserve unit economics; watch Q4 loss rates vs management’s annualized downtrend assertion .
  • Funding tailwind: New $150M facility at lower spread enhances interest expense trajectory; supports receivables expansion without heavy equity needs .
  • Operating leverage intact: Expense ratio improvements (and lower interest expense) continue to drive net revenue and adjusted profitability; watch LOLA migration timing for incremental gains .
  • Capital returns: Ongoing buybacks post-Q3 underscore management’s view of undervaluation; potential M&A optionality for multi-product expansion .
  • Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 yield stabilization, confirmation of credit trends, and LOLA progress; guidance credibility and cost-of-funds reduction are supportive to multiple expansion.

Implications vs Estimates and Trajectory

  • Estimates likely need to move up for EPS while revenue remains close to prior forecasts; durability of margin improvements (expense and funding) plus recoveries underpin EPS upside bias .
  • Monitor seasonal credit in Q4 and the effect of risk-based pricing; any deviation from the expected annualized downtrend in charge-offs vs revenue would be a key risk to EPS trajectory .
  • Execution on connected TV/direct mail and LOLA migration may extend automation benefits and originations quality, supporting 2026 double-digit growth ambitions (credit permitting) .

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.