OI
OptiNose, Inc. (OPTN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 net revenue was $22.4M, up 13% year over year; OptiNose delivered its first positive income from operations ($0.4M), while reporting a small net loss of $(0.36)M and diluted EPS of $(0.03). Note: the press release text references $(0.04) EPS, while the attached financials show $(0.03) EPS, indicating a minor discrepancy .
- Prescriptions accelerated: NRx rose 12% sequentially (approx. 25.6K → 28.7K) and TRx rose 23% (approx. 63.9K → 78.5K), reflecting improving commercial execution and coverage pull-through .
- FY2024 guidance was lowered in November to $75–$79M revenue and raised for average net revenue per Rx to ~$270; full-year results came in at $78.2M revenue, consistent with the range .
- The Q4 earnings call was canceled following a definitive agreement for Paratek to acquire OptiNose for $9.00 in cash plus up to $5.00 in CVRs (potential total $14.00 per share), a ~50% premium—an immediate stock reaction catalyst and narrative shift toward integration and primary care expansion .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Prescription momentum: “An inflection in prescription demand first observed in September 2024 NRx continued in fourth quarter 2024 and extended to TRx,” with NRx +12% q/q to ~28.7K and TRx +23% q/q to ~78.5K .
- First quarter of income from operations ($0.4M) amid tighter cost control and improving mix; FY net revenue grew 10% to $78.2M .
- Management raised FY2024 average net revenue per Rx guidance to ~$270, citing improved business mix from co-pay program revisions and coverage enhancements (e.g., Express Scripts formulary wins) .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance reset: FY2024 revenue guidance was cut to $75–$79M in November (from $85–$90M in August) as launch uptake in chronic sinusitis ramped more slowly than expected .
- Going concern language: All outstanding principal and fees were classified as current liabilities, and FY2024 audited financials will include a “going concern” paragraph given expected covenant non-compliance absent waivers/modifications .
- Q3 benefitted from ~<$3M inventory stocking, complicating sequential comparisons; 2025 full-year profitability commentary was removed pending better visibility on the ramp and trajectory .
Financial Results
P&L and EPS vs prior quarters
Notes:
- Press release narrative cited Q4 diluted EPS of $(0.04), while the financial table shows $(0.03); we anchor to the attached financials but flag the discrepancy .
- Q3 net revenue was aided by channel inventory build of a little under $3M; average net revenue per Rx was $320 in Q3 vs $309 in Q2 .
Balance Sheet Snapshot
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on Q4 preliminary: “Our preliminary unaudited fourth quarter net product revenue of $22.4 million is in line with our prior guidance and demonstrates a sustained growth in XHANCE prescriptions through the fourth quarter of 2024.” — Ramy Mahmoud .
- CEO on Q3 inflection and peak potential: “We believe we are now observing a clear inflection in new prescription demand… we believe peak annual net revenue will exceed $300 million with our specialty-focused efforts…” — Ramy Mahmoud .
- CFO on Q3 average net revenue per Rx: “In 2Q, it was $309. And yes, that’s correct, $320 in Q3.” — P. Terence Kohler .
- CEO on payer policy updates: “We believe that at this point, most plans have updated their coverage to be inclusive of both approved indications.” — Ramy Mahmoud .
Q&A Highlights
- Sequential Q4 guide context: Q3 revenue included < $3M of channel inventory; Q4 implied demand step-up but average net revenue per Rx seasonally lower, and refill lag expected in chronic disease .
- Coverage inclusion for new indication: Most plans have updated; qualitative changes often occur within prior auth forms rather than headline coverage changes .
- Profitability outlook: 2025 full-year profitability commentary withdrawn pending better visibility on the ramp; management cited uncertainty following positive demand inflection .
- Revenue per Rx cadence: $309 (Q2) and $320 (Q3) with full-year ~ $270 guidance; Q2 uplift aided by change healthcare disruption mix; Q3 aided by inventory stocking .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024, but estimates were unavailable due to missing SPGI/CIQ mapping for OPTN. As a result, we cannot provide quantitative beat/miss vs Wall Street consensus for Q4 at this time [SpgiEstimatesError; GetEstimates attempt].
- Directionally, Q4 revenue of $22.4M fell within the company’s implied Q4 revenue range (approx. $19–$23M) set in November guidance, but we cannot compare to analyst consensus without S&P Global data .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Commercial momentum improved: NRx and TRx accelerated in Q4, supporting revenue growth and the first positive operating income quarter; watch sustainability of demand and refill stacking into 2025 .
- Mix and pricing dynamics: Average net revenue per Rx improved materially in 2024 on co-pay program changes and coverage; expect Q4 seasonality and inventory normalization effects to temper quarterly ARx metrics .
- Balance sheet risk flagged: Going concern language related to covenant compliance and current classification of debt-related liabilities warrants close monitoring of waivers/modifications and liquidity runway .
- Corporate catalyst: Paratek acquisition (up to $14/share total) shifts narrative to primary care expansion and integration; potential to accelerate adoption via broader field force reach .
- Execution focus areas: Continued payer pull-through (ESI and beyond), HUB optimization, and prescriber education are critical to sustain the trajectory; management emphasized time and frequency of calls for behavior change .
- Guidance reset executed prudently: Lowered FY2024 revenue, raised revenue per Rx, lowered OpEx—aligns with quality of revenue focus; subsequent results landed within revised ranges .
- Near-term trading lens: Expect stock to be driven by M&A path, covenant developments, and prescription momentum data; acquisition premium provides downside support while closing risk and CVR milestones create event paths .
Appendix: Additional Q4 2024 Press Releases
- Earnings call cancellation (March 19, 2025) due to Paratek transaction; results reported via press release/8-K .
- Preliminary Q4 revenue (Jan 15, 2025) indicated $22.4M, consistent with final results and sequential prescription growth .