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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Origin secured a convertible debt facility with an initial $15M cash tranche and capacity up to $90M, plus a non-binding term sheet for $20M of equipment financing, strengthening liquidity to fund CapFormer build-out and PET cap scale-up .
  • Q3 revenue was $4.7M, down 42.9% YoY due to the planned wind-down of the supply chain activation program; net loss improved to $(16.4)M vs $(36.8)M YoY; adjusted EBITDA loss was $(11.6)M .
  • Guidance was maintained: 2026 revenue $20–$30M; 2027 revenue $100–$200M; adjusted EBITDA run-rate breakeven in 2027; CapFormer build-out on track with Line 7–8 start-up now potentially extending into Q1 2027 .
  • Commercial momentum: first order placed by Berlin Packaging; progress on impact resistance and multi-day heated horizontal stress testing for CSD; “water-first” strategy building global pipeline .
  • Litigation settlement reached with no finding of liability; settlement fully covered by insurance—removes distraction risk; strategic review with RBC progressing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Financing flexibility: “We have executed a secured convertible debt facility… with capacity for additional tranches, up to a total of $90 million… Also… a non-binding term sheet… $20 million… bringing our total equipment financing capacity to approximately $30 million” .
  • Commercial traction: first order from Berlin Packaging; global sales efforts across North America, Europe, South America, and Asia; clear lead in PET cap commercialization .
  • Technology progress: exceeded performance requirements for impact resistance and multi-day heated horizontal stress tests; plan to consolidate into a single cap design .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue decline: Q3 2025 revenue fell to $4.7M from $8.2M YoY, primarily due to the planned reduction of the supply chain activation program .
  • Tariff headwinds increasing “soft costs”: equipment financing coverage now expected at the low end of the 50–70% goal; FAT and start-up timing for later lines stretched, with Line 7–8 potentially into Q1 2027 .
  • Burn and profitability: adjusted EBITDA still negative at $(11.6)M; management indicated burn split around OpEx ~$10M and CapEx ~$5M in Q3 and similar profile expected into 2026 .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Profitability vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$8.202 $5.813 $4.657
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(36.763) $(12.747) $(16.382)
Net Loss per Share (Diluted)$(0.26) $(0.09) $(0.11)
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$32.466 $15.148 $17.091
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(11.954) $(9.904) $(11.643)

Margins

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cost of Revenues ($USD Millions)$8.141 $5.631 $4.500
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$0.061 $0.182 $0.157
Gross Margin %0.7% 3.1% 3.4%
Net Margin %(448.1%) (219.3%) (351.8%)

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Type ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Products$8.202 $5.813 $4.657
Services$0.000 $0.000 $0.000

Balance Sheet and KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$43.835 $35.295 $34.061
Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$39.213 $34.106 $20.279
Net Accounts Receivable ($USD Millions)$19.120 $17.888 $15.534
Land Held for Sale ($USD Millions)$11.282 $9.114 $9.125
Shares Outstanding (Millions)149.5 150.2 150.5
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(11.010) $(9.904) $(11.643)

Results vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)
Revenue ($USD)N/A$4,657,000
EPS (Primary)N/A$(0.11)

S&P Global consensus estimates for ORGN EPS and revenue were unavailable for Q3 2025; we queried and no values were returned.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2026$50–$70M (Q1) $20–$30M (Q2 maintained in Q3) Lowered in Q2; Maintained in Q3
RevenueFY 2027$150–$210M (Q1) $100–$200M (Q2 maintained in Q3) Lowered in Q2; Maintained in Q3
Adjusted EBITDA run-rate breakevenTimelineEnd of 2026 (Q1) 2027 (Q2 maintained in Q3) Pushed out in Q2; Maintained in Q3
CapFormer Lines 7–8 Start-upTimingQ4 2026 (prior) Could extend into Q1 2027 Delayed
Equipment Financing CoverageCoverage Goal50–70% coverage goal Expect coverage at low end due to tariffs Lower coverage expectation

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Financing strategyPursuing equipment and corporate debt in 2H 2025; tariffs may require more cash; non-dilutive majority targeted Secured $15M initial convertible debt tranche (up to $90M) and $20M equipment financing capacity; optional servicing with equity; additional tranches discretionary Strengthened liquidity; flexible structure
Manufacturing capacity and tariffsFAT delays 30–90 days; tariffs raised to EU 15%, Switzerland 39%; impact on financing and schedules Maintaining build-out; FAT through Line 6 by YE 2025; Line 7–8 start-up could extend into Q1 2027; equipment financing coverage at low end due to tariffs Execution continues; later-line timing stretched
Go-to-market (“water-first”) & customersFirst caps on shelves; Berlin Packaging announced; strong pipeline; strategic segmentation (water, CSD, others) Berlin Packaging placed first order; global marketing; more than half of water brands are potential CSD customers Pipeline broadening; first order shipped
Regulatory/legalInvestor legal reminders; litigation ongoing Settled securities litigation with no liability; fully covered by insurance Legal overhang reduced
NASDAQ listing/complianceDetailed grace period and reverse split path if needed Not discussed in Q3 callNeutral (topic absent)
R&D execution (CSD tests)Focus on impact resistance; multi-day heated horizontal stress testing; belief CSD qualification a matter of “when” Exceeded requirements in separate designs; plan to consolidate features into one cap Technical progress
Strategic review (RBC)Strategic review launched to accelerate capacity, distribution, capital access Review progressing with productive engagement; additional equipment financing options Ongoing; optionality building

Management Commentary

  • “We are announcing financing that strengthens our balance sheet… secured convertible debt… initial close of $15 million… capacity up to $90 million… and a non-binding term sheet… $20 million… bringing our total equipment financing capacity to approximately $30 million.” — John Bissell .
  • “We are maintaining revenue and run-rate Adjusted EBITDA guidance… 2026: $20–$30M; 2027: $100–$200M; Adjusted EBITDA run-rate breakeven: 2027.” — Company .
  • “We successfully exceeded performance requirements for impact resistance and multi-day heated horizontal stress testing… expect to consolidate… into a single cap design.” — John Bissell .
  • “Berlin Packaging placed its first order… represents a sales and distribution partner… broad and deep distribution footprint… opens the door for all our forthcoming formats.” — John Bissell .
  • “Combination of equipment financing and convertible debt is the optimal funding strategy… we anticipate drawing additional tranches in 2026 as needed… at our discretion.” — Matt Plavan .

Q&A Highlights

  • Financing details and tranches: Management deferred detailed instrument terms to a forthcoming 8-K; reiterated discretionary access to additional tranches subject to conditions .
  • Cash burn outlook: Q3 burn approx $15M split ~50/50 OpEx ~$10M and CapEx ~$5M; similar split expected into 2026 until gross profit ramps with capacity .
  • CapFormer start-ups & qualification timing: Lines 2 and 4 making good progress; qualification requires both Origin line output and customer line runs; expect significant progress through end of Q1 (no single-customer commitments) .
  • Berlin Packaging order: First order shipped; feedback pending; customer support readiness emphasized given variable end-customer mix .
  • FAT/SAT and customer qualification processes clarified: Detailed distinctions between factory/site acceptance testing and customer bottling line qualifications; emphasis on dialing equipment to spec before customer runs .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus coverage for Q3 2025 appeared unavailable for ORGN revenue and EPS; our query returned no estimate values and only the actual revenue figure (see Financial Results table for actuals). Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Liquidity and funding optionality improved: $15M initial cash from convertible debt and up to $90M total plus $20M equipment financing capacity provide runway to fund CapFormer deployment and scale PET caps; optional equity servicing offers flexibility .
  • Commercial inflection emerging: First Berlin Packaging order and global marketing of PET caps support the “water-first” strategy and create a path to CSD as technical milestones are met .
  • Near-term revenue remains constrained by legacy program wind-down and capacity timing; profitability path tied to CapFormer throughput ramp and customer qualifications .
  • Tariffs and “soft costs” likely to keep equipment financing coverage at the low end of the 50–70% goal, nudging later-line timing (Line 7–8 potentially Q1 2027) and capital needs .
  • Legal overhang reduced via settlement covered by insurance; strategic review with RBC continues and could accelerate capacity/distribution access .
  • Cash collections from legacy receivables ($15.5M) and land sale proceeds ($9.1M) are expected incremental cash sources aiding liquidity .
  • Monitoring Q4/Q1 milestones: FAT completion through Line 6 by YE 2025, early 2026 financing draws as needed, and consolidation of CSD performance features into a single cap design will be key narrative drivers .