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    OneSpan (OSPN)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 11, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$16.22Last close (Feb 27, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$15.75Open (Feb 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.47(-2.90%)
    • Improved Profitability & Cash Generation: The company has restructured its cost base to generate record adjusted EBITDA, strong operating cash flow, and improved free cash flow conversion. This operational efficiency supports reinvestment in growth and capital return to shareholders. ** **
    • Robust Recurring Revenue Metrics: With 8.5% ARR growth in 2024, a maintained net retention rate of 106%-108%, and double-digit subscription revenue growth across both segments, the business has a strong foundation for predictable and scalable revenue. ** **
    • Diversified Product Portfolio & Market Opportunity: The broad range of solutions in both security (software and hardware) and digital agreements, along with initiatives to expand through channel partnerships, positions the company to capture new logos and capitalize on emerging market trends despite a transition away from hardware revenue. ** **
    • Continued decline in hardware revenue: Executives noted that the traditional hardware segment, especially for Security, has been experiencing a multi-year downward trend—with planned further declines in 2025—and the impact of end-of-life contracts could further pressure overall revenue.
    • Currency headwinds affecting revenue: Approximately 40% of revenue is in euros, and a notable shift in the euro-dollar exchange rate has already resulted in about a $5 million drag, prompting more cautious revenue guidance for fiscal 2025.
    • Slower new logo acquisition in key segments: While Digital Agreements shows stronger new logo growth, the Security segment largely relies on existing customers and faces challenges in acquiring new logos, which may limit overall revenue expansion.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    –2.8% (from $62.93M to $61.17M)

    Total revenue declined slightly as gains in Digital Agreements revenue were partially offset by declines in the Security Solutions segment, highlighting the overall impact of the company’s strategic shift toward subscription offerings at the expense of hardware and associated services versus.

    Digital Agreements Revenue

    +8% (from $14.51M to $15.71M)

    Digital Agreements revenue increased due to growing cloud subscription revenue, expansion of renewal contracts, and the strategic relocation of identity verification products into the unit, reflecting a continued emphasis on digital, SaaS-based solutions compared to the previous period versus.

    Security Solutions Overall

    –6.2% (from $48.42M to $45.46M)

    Security Solutions revenue dropped mainly because of a significant decline in hardware, Maintenance & Support, and Professional Services revenues; however, this drop was partially mitigated by a strong boost in subscription revenue, indicating a continuing transition away from legacy revenue streams that dominated in the past period versus.

    Security Solutions – Subscription Revenue

    +32% (from $27.30M to $36.12M)

    Subscription revenue surged as existing customer adoption accelerated, conversions from legacy perpetual contracts boosted pricing, and the focus on software-based solutions became increasingly dominant compared to the previous quarter, supporting the move to a more profitable subscription model versus.

    Security Solutions – Maintenance & Support

    –15% (to $9.63M)

    Maintenance & Support revenue declined in line with the deliberate transition from legacy perpetual maintenance contracts to subscription licenses, reflecting ongoing strategic adjustments that resulted in lower recurring revenue from maintenance services compared to the previous period versus.

    Security Solutions – Professional Services

    –40% (to $0.98M)

    Professional Services revenue fell sharply, driven by lower per-unit contributions from bundled perpetual software licenses and hardware-related services, which had a more significant role in the prior period versus.

    Security Solutions – Hardware Products

    –36% (to $14.44M)

    Hardware revenue declined markedly due to reduced hardware volumes sold and a strategic shift away from hardware-centric products in favor of higher-margin, software-based offerings, contrasting with previous periods where hardware contributed more significantly versus.

    EMEA Revenue

    –5.9% (from $30.98M to $29.18M)

    EMEA revenue contracted as a result of lower hardware volumes and the impact of end-of-life products, reflecting softer demand in the region compared to the previous period.

    APAC Revenue

    –9.1% (from $10.72M to $9.74M)

    APAC revenue slipped primarily due to decreased hardware sales, which contrasts with earlier periods where hardware and increased average selling prices had driven stronger revenue growth.

    Americas Revenue

    +4.8% (from $21.26M to $22.25M)

    Americas revenue grew owing to stronger Digital Agreements performance, which compensated for lower hardware revenue, highlighting region-specific success in digital solution adoption relative to Q4 2023 versus.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue Guidance

    FY 2024

    $238M to $246M

    $238M to $242M

    lowered

    ARR Guidance

    FY 2024

    no prior guidance

    $166M to $170M

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2024

    $55M to $59M

    $65M to $67M

    raised

    Net Retention Rate (NRR)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    106% to 108%

    no prior guidance

    ARR Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    10%

    no prior guidance

    Total Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    2%

    no prior guidance

    Hardware Revenue Decline

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    8% year-over-year

    no prior guidance

    Subscription Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Double-digit growth

    no prior guidance

    Cash Flow Generation

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Modest improvement

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Modest increases

    no prior guidance

    End-of-Life Products Impact

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Higher revenue impact

    no prior guidance

    Foreign Exchange (FX) Impact

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Factored into guidance (≈40% of revenue in euros; exchange rate shifts could impact revenue growth by a couple of percentage points)

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Recurring Revenue Growth & Subscription Transition

    Q3, Q2, and Q1 earnings consistently highlighted ARR growth, strong subscription revenue increases, and the strategic transition from perpetual models to SaaS/subscription licenses.

    Q4 continued to emphasize strong recurring revenue growth with explicit metrics (e.g., ARR grew 8.5% to $168 million, subscription revenue up over 30%, transitioning to SaaS/term licenses).

    Consistent and positive. The focus remains on robust subscription revenue growth and a smooth transition to higher-margin SaaS models.

    Operational Efficiency, Cost Management & Margin Expansion

    Across Q3, Q2, and Q1, discussions centered on cost reduction, restructuring activities, and improvements in both gross and operating margins, with detailed references to EBITDA and cash flow improvements.

    Q4 reported further improvements with initiatives like restructuring, cost savings, and better product mix leading to a gross margin of 75% and higher segment-level margins.

    Steady improvement. Continued positive sentiment with ongoing cost efficiencies and margin expansion across all periods.

    Declining Hardware Revenue

    In Q3, Q2, and Q1, there were clear mentions of a decline in hardware revenue (e.g., DIGIPASS token declines, seasonal effects, and a long-term shift to software) with explanations on strategic transitions.

    Q4 reaffirmed the long-term decline with hardware revenue down by 36% in Q4 and expectations for continued declines in 2025, while emphasizing the shift to higher‐margin software solutions.

    Consistently negative. The long-term decline in hardware revenue is an ongoing challenge, with the strategy to mitigate this by focusing on software and subscription offerings.

    Currency Headwinds & FX Exposure

    Q3, Q2, and Q1 earnings calls did not mention or provide details on FX exposure or currency headwinds.

    In Q4, detailed commentary was introduced regarding the impact of the euro-dollar exchange rate (noting a roughly $5 million revenue impact) and a more cautious revenue guidance for 2025 because 40% of revenue is in euros.

    Newly emerging. This is a new topic in Q4 reflecting evolving concerns about FX fluctuations that were not previously discussed.

    Customer Retention, Acquisition, and Churn Dynamics

    Each of Q3, Q2, and Q1 included detailed discussion on NRR, new logo acquisition, and churn dynamics stemming from end-of-life products and transitions, with steady NRRs in the 106–112% range.

    Q4 maintained a focus on customer metrics by reporting an NRR of 106%, improved on-time renewals, and noting churn impacts from end-of-life products, with new logo growth concentrated in Digital Agreements and channel initiatives in workforce authentication.

    Steady but nuanced. Overall strong retention with consistent challenges from legacy product churn, balanced by ongoing acquisition efforts and a focus on expansion.

    Strategic Partner Expansion & Diversified Product Portfolio

    This topic was not discussed in Q1 and Q2. However, in Q3 there was significant discussion regarding channel partner growth and product portfolio adjustments (e.g., relocating identity verification products).

    In Q4, there was further emphasis on channel partner expansion for workforce authentication and subtle references to product portfolio adjustments, though not explicitly diversified, building on the Q3 narrative.

    Emerging focus. While absent in early quarters, discussions in Q3 and Q4 indicate a growing strategic emphasis on expanding through partners and refining the product mix.

    Pipeline Visibility & Demand Uncertainty

    Q3 and Q2 (and to a lesser degree Q1) contained detailed analysis on pipeline visibility, particularly for hardware revenue, seasonal booking challenges, and demand uncertainty, with candid remarks on the difficulty of separating demand from execution.

    Q4 did not feature specific commentary on pipeline visibility or demand uncertainty, with discussions shifting more toward revenue outcomes and strategic guidance rather than detailed pipeline metrics.

    Diminished discussion. Previously a significant focus, conversation on pipeline visibility and demand uncertainty has notably decreased in Q4, suggesting either stabilization or a change in focus.

    Macro Environment & Regional Performance

    Q3, Q2, and Q1 provided extensive commentary on macro conditions and regional performance, including detailed revenue mixes by region and qualitative assessments of economic conditions in Europe, APAC, and North America.

    Q4 focused primarily on providing updated revenue mix by region (EMEA, Americas, Asia Pacific) with less qualitative discussion of the overall macro environment compared to earlier periods.

    Reduced emphasis. While regional performance remains a reporting element in Q4, broader macro environment commentary is less prominent, shifting the focus toward updated quantitative mixes over qualitative macro insights.

    1. ARR vs Revenue
      Q: How do ARR and revenue guidance reconcile?
      A: Management clarified that while ARR is set to grow around 10% driven by subscription revenue, overall revenue guidance remains modest (around 2%) due to hardware declines, end-of-life revenue timing, and FX headwinds.

    2. Free Cash Flow
      Q: What are free cash flow expectations?
      A: The team is very pleased with the dramatic improvement in cash generation and expects modest increases in free cash flow for 2025, balancing continued investments in Security software.

    3. Performance Comparison
      Q: How do results compare to last year?
      A: Management noted that the company is in a much stronger position than 12 months ago with a more rigorous cost structure and improved profitability, particularly in the Security segment.

    4. Customer Metrics
      Q: What about net retention and new logos?
      A: They expect steady net retention of 106-108% and see solid new logo growth on the Digital Agreements side, reflecting consistent renewal performance.

    5. Hardware Decline
      Q: Is hardware revenue decline expected in 2025?
      A: Management confirmed that they anticipate a continued decline in hardware revenue, roughly around an 8% year-over-year drop as the market shifts toward software-based solutions.

    6. Product Roadmap
      Q: What progress on product roadmap and channels?
      A: They are advancing their digital identity offerings and actively expanding channel partnerships for hardware tokens, with progress unfolding gradually.

    7. Inorganic Growth
      Q: How active is the targeted M&A approach?
      A: The focus remains on selective, targeted acquisitions that add strategic technology rather than merely buying revenue, aligning organic growth with key opportunities.

    8. New Logo Trends
      Q: How is new logo acquisition trending?
      A: New logo growth is more pronounced in the Digital Agreements segment, while Security maintains strong retention with slower new customer gains.

    Research analysts covering OneSpan.