Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Oxy expects to generate $1.7 billion of incremental cash flow in 2026 from OxyChem projects and midstream cost reductions, significantly enhancing financial performance.
- The company added 700 million BOE of reserves, primarily from the Permian Resources and Algeria, indicating strong future production growth potential.
- Oxy is advancing its Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, with ongoing progress on its first facility and preparations for a second, positioning the company as a leader in low-carbon ventures.
- Asset sales and share repurchases are delayed: Occidental will not make any asset divestitures until after the CrownRock acquisition closes, postponing deleveraging efforts. Additionally, share repurchases are on hold until debt goals are met.
- Regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CrownRock acquisition: The FTC's second request for information may delay the acquisition to the second half of the year, adding regulatory risk.
- Delays in key projects due to supply chain issues and inflation: The Battleground project has been pushed out to 2026, delaying the anticipated $300 million to $400 million EBITDA uplift and cash flows from this expansion.
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Deleveraging Post-CrownRock
Q: How will you reduce debt after acquiring CrownRock?
A: We plan to deleverage by selling non-core Permian assets after closing the CrownRock acquisition. There's significant interest from companies wanting to enter the Permian, and we believe divestitures will go well. We won't make any divestitures until the acquisition closes, and then we'll proactively proceed. -
FTC Review of CrownRock Acquisition
Q: What's the status with the FTC on CrownRock deal?
A: We're working diligently with the FTC to provide all requested information. Although they've asked for extensive details, we are progressing and expect to close the acquisition in the second half of this year. -
Shareholder Returns and Debt Reduction
Q: Will shareholder returns be limited until debt is reduced?
A: Yes, we'll accumulate cash flow to pay down debt and the term loan related to the CrownRock acquisition. Share repurchases will resume once we achieve our debt reduction goals, targeting $15 billion in debt. The CrownRock acquisition will help us start a more robust share repurchase program of both common and preferred shares. -
Capital Allocation Strategy
Q: Why invest more in Rockies and EOR rather than Permian?
A: We're balancing investments to ensure sustainable dividends. The CrownRock acquisition adds high-margin Permian growth with a 35% decline rate. In the Rockies, we're completing drilled but uncompleted wells, offering low capital intensity. Our capital allocation considers margin, base decline, and flexibility, optimizing cash flow across diverse assets. -
EOR Growth Plans
Q: How significant is EOR in future growth?
A: Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) will be a significant part of our portfolio over the next 5–10 years. With 2 billion barrels of resources to develop, EOR using atmospheric CO₂ will produce some of the most sustainable barrels globally. We're investing in CO₂ capture to support this growth, expecting peak production from new EOR wells in the third year, tripling initial output. -
Gulf of Mexico Production Outlook
Q: What's affecting Gulf of Mexico production guidance?
A: Lower guidance is due to factors like pipeline outages. We're leaving updates to the operator but expect production to return to normal this year. Our teams are preparing facilities for full operations, and we completed 2024 turnarounds ahead of schedule, avoiding outages next year. -
Reserve Additions
Q: What's driving the 700 million BOE reserve additions?
A: The bulk of reserve additions comes from our Permian Resources business, with significant contributions from productivity improvements and development of secondary benches outperforming averages. We also added significant reserves in Algeria due to contract extensions. Every business unit increased reserves except Al Hosn. -
Midstream Guidance
Q: Why is midstream guidance lower for 2024?
A: Lower guidance is due to assumed compressed gas transportation spreads and lower sulfur pricing at Al Hosn. Last year's results benefited from optimization opportunities that we can't predict for 2024. We believe this is the low point for midstream income, expecting significant uplift in the next few years as certain contracts expire. -
DJ Basin Permits and Regulations
Q: Are you concerned about Colorado regulations impacting the DJ Basin?
A: We feel we're in a strong position with permits, currently holding about 1.5 times our activity level. Recent large permit packages have progressed well, and we've received positive feedback due to our focus on emissions reduction and community engagement. We're not overly concerned about potential regulatory changes at this time.
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