Plains All American Pipeline - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PAA and PAGP Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Blake Fernandez. Please go ahead.

Blake Fernandez (VP - Investor Relations)

Thank you, Tanya. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide two.

An overview of 2024 results and recent announcements are highlighted on Slide three. A condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix. Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chang, Chairman and CEO and Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of our management team. With that, I'll turn the call over to Willie.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me start with a few comments about our results and our outlook on 2025, and then I'll provide an update on our recent announcements. Let's start with the results. We just demonstrated another strong quarter of execution. We exceeded our expectations for the fourth quarter and for the full year, reporting adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $729,000,000 and $2,780,000 respectively, with full year results just above the high end of our guidance range and exceeding our initial 2024 guidance by approximately 105,000,000 or 4%.

Looking to 2025 and as highlighted on Slide four, we provided adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,800,000,000 to $2,950,000,000 approximately 3% growth year over year at the midpoint of our guidance range. As shown on Slide five, we expect Permian crude production to grow 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day year end '24 to year end '25 with overall basin volumes growing to approximately 6,700,000 barrels a day by the end of twenty twenty five. We believe this sets up for a very constructive long haul market over the next several years as volumes grow towards our full utilization, efficient operating capacity. In regard to our Permian long haul assets for 2025, we expect continued high utilization on our Corpus Christi bound assets, increased volumes on Basin pipeline and a modest MVC increase on Wink to Webster. Our Permian Gathering JV continues to benefit from the embedded operational synergies and consistent producer activity on our over 4,700,000 dedicated acres.

Our outside Permian business tends to get less attention externally, but it continues to perform well and generate significant excess cash flow for Plains. We have selectively acquired complementary assets along this footprint over the past couple of years, including the recently acquired Midway Pipeline and Ironwood Gathering System, and we continue to explore and develop additional bolt on opportunities. Before turning the call over to Al for more detail on our guidance and results, I want to provide an update on our recent announcements. Turning to Slide six, we've completed the acquisition of Ironwood Midstream Energy on January 31, which extends and expands our integrated asset base in the Eagle Ford. As seen on Slide seven and as previously announced, we acquired the remaining 50% interest in Midway Pipeline and a subsidiary of our Permian joint venture acquired the Medallion Delaware Basin crew gathering business.

These transactions exemplify Plains' efficient growth strategy, which is focused on expanding our integrated asset base, streamlining operations, all while generating attractive returns for unitholders. Additionally, on January 31, we closed the purchase of approximately 12,700,000 units or 18% of our outstanding Series A preferred units at par value of $26.25 which is reflective of our continued effort to not only optimize our asset base, but also our capital structure. Lastly, we accelerated the return of capital framework and announced a 20% increase in the quarterly distribution payable on February 14 for both PAA common units and PAGP Class A shares. On an annualized basis, the distribution represents a $0.25 per unit increase from the distribution we paid in November 2024, bringing the annual distribution to $1.52 per unit representing a yield of approximately 7.5% based on the current equity price for PAA. With that, I'll turn the call over to Al.

Al Swanson (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Willie. We reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $729,000,000 which includes crude oil segment benefits from higher volumes and pipeline tariff escalation. Our NGL segment benefited from higher than expected border flows leading to increased C3 plus spec product sales. Slides eight and nine in today's presentation contain segment EBITDA walks which provide details on our fourth quarter performance. All in all, we executed well in 2024 and are well positioned as we enter 2025.

A summary of 2025 guidance and key assumptions are on Slide 10. Looking at 2025 guidance compared to 2024 results and as illustrated by the EBITDA walk on Slide 11, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $2,800,000,000 to $2,950,000,000 with year over year growth in our Crude Oil segment and slightly lower NGL segment contributions. Growth in our Crude Oil segment is primarily driven by contributions from bolt on acquisitions, volume growth and pipeline tariff escalation, partially offsetting these tailwinds on the previously discussed reset of certain long haul contract tariffs that stepped down in the second half of twenty twenty five. While our NGL segment adjusted EBITDA is expected to be slightly lower year over year, the business is shifting to approximately 45% fee based in 2025. I would note that our C3 plus spec product sales volumes are approximately 70% hedged for the year in the low $0.7 per gallon level.

We remain focused on making disciplined capital investments and expect to invest approximately $400,000,000 of growth capital and approximately $240,000,000 of maintenance capital in 2025 net to PAA. This includes growth capital for the PAP JV well connections and intra basin improvements, integration of our recently completed acquisitions and capital related to our Fort Saskatchewan debottleneck project. As illustrated on Slide 12, in addition to capital discipline, we remain committed to significant returns of capital and maintaining financial flexibility. For 2025, we expect to generate approximately $1,150,000,000 of adjusted free cash flow, excluding changes in assets and liabilities, which is reduced by $580,000,000 for the previously announced bolt on transactions that closed in January. Regarding our balance sheet, we recently raised $1,000,000,000 of senior unsecured notes at a rate of 5.95% maturing in 02/1935.

Proceeds were used to fund the recently announced transactions. Regarding our senior note maturity profile, we have $1,000,000,000 maturing in October 2025, which we would expect to refinance all or a portion of during the year. Before I turn the call back to Willie, I wanted to provide detail on two charges that impacted our fourth quarter GAAP results. Our 2024 results include a $140,000,000 non cash impairment related to two U. S.

NGL terminal assets. These are excluded from our adjusted results. Separately, regarding our claim for reimbursement from insurance carriers of $225,000,000 that arose out of a 2022 class action settlement relating to our 2015 Line nine zero one incident, an arbitration panel ruled that we are not entitled to reimbursement of our $175,000,000 claim against several of the insurers. With respect to our remaining 50,000,000 claim against different insurance carriers, we now regard collection of those claims as being less than probable and GAAP therefore requires that we write off the entire $225,000,000 receivable and recognize any future collections as and if they are received. While disappointing, we still expect to operate at or below the low end of our leverage target ratio of 3.25 to 3.75 times in 2025. With that, I'll turn the call back to Will.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Al. Twenty twenty four was another solid year of execution for Plains and we remain confident as we enter 2025 with strong operational momentum and are well positioned to play offense and continuing to deliver value to our unitholders. As we show on Slide 11, we've made meaningful progress on our financial objectives and we've positioned ourselves to be the investment of choice. In summary, first, our balance sheet strength provides significant financial capacity and flexibility. Secondly, we continue to demonstrate capital discipline and the ability to execute on our efficient growth initiatives, including growing the business both organically and inorganically through accretive and synergistic bolt on acquisitions.

And finally, as demonstrated with our recent distribution increase announcement, we remain very focused on increasing return of capital to our unitholders through our multiyear capital allocation framework, while still preserving financial flexibility. From a broader perspective, we're optimistic about a new administration that values energy security and energy independence and one that also supports consumer choice and a level playing field for all sources of energy, including hydrocarbons. We believe the world will continue to need North American energy to maintain today's quality of living standards and to help elevate those that are less fortunate. Plains is well positioned to support domestic energy growth with critical infrastructure to connect supply to demand centers across North America. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Blake, who will lead us into Q and A.

Blake Fernandez (VP - Investor Relations)

Thanks, Willie. As we enter the Q and A session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. For those with additional questions, please feel free to return to the queue. This will allow us to address as many questions as practical in our available time this morning. The IR team will also be available to address any questions you may have. Tonya, I believe we're ready to go to Q and A session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our first question will come from Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research. Your line is open Keith.

Keith Stanley (Director)

Hi, good morning. Thank you. To start maybe can you give a little background on how some of these tuck ins came together in January? It was a long process or it came together pretty quickly. And then give a sense on if there's other meaningful opportunities you're working on currently or that you think are likely you'll be able to execute on this year?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Pete. This is Willie. We entered 2025 with a lot of momentum and obviously these deals don't happen overnight. So our organization, as you know, is constantly looking for opportunities and we had a number of these that came together at same time. It was a lot of work for our team, but we're able to execute on all of it.

We can't as with these things, you can't pick the timing. So, it was we were pleased to be able to come in strong in the year. And I think that just reinforces the comment that we've really moved from defense to offense. As far as more activity, we've been pretty public about that. We think there are more opportunities.

And when you think about Plains' footprint and our integrated asset base, we're an infrastructure company. So we connect supply to demand. And in that process, we have a lot of people that we talk to. And that opens up opportunities for us to create some of these options for opportunities to bolt on into our system. A lot of opportunities for synergies.

And so as we go forward, we're nurturing a number of these. The one common thing is we're not growing for growth sake and all of these have to go through the lens of capital discipline and strategic need and our ability to pull through the entire system getting more synergies. So I think you can expect more of these to come, but again, it's going to be hard to predict timing. And most importantly, we're only going to bring the projects forward that give us a good return for the unitholders.

Keith Stanley (Director)

That's great.

If I could shift gears for second question, wanted to ask on tariffs. We got the one month pause here, but if we eventually do get tariffs on Canada, can you walk through some of the dynamics of how that could play out for both your NGL and crude business and potential impacts for Plains?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Well, Keith, I think we only have an hour for this call. So maybe I'll try to keep it pretty general. There are as everyone on the call knows, there's literally a million scenarios that could play out.

And we've been working on this for a number of months going through the scenario planning for what could come for us. The short answer is, as you look at our guidance range, we think that guidance range easily encompasses the probable outcomes of what the tariffs may be. But as far as jumping to the conclusions of what they might be and when they may take effect, I think it's just best to know that we've been spending time on it and we've tried to mitigate a lot of these proactively. And until the tariffs come out on what they might be or if they come out at all, it's really a scenario planning exercise of what might happen in our system. But you should know that we're ready for it.

And again, if it comes, our impact is going to be within the guidance range.

Keith Stanley (Director)

Great. Thank you.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Keith.

Operator (participant)

And one moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Manav Gupta of UBS. Your line is open.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Good morning, teams. You when you provided the initial 2024 guide versus where it came, the number was much stronger. And I'm just trying to understand, again, if the macro is supportive, when we look at 2025 guide, what could drive you towards the upper end of that guide and possibly go with it as you did in 2024?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Well, Manav, this is Willie. I'll start and maybe others can jump in. When we look at 2025, I think it's important to throw the macro views that I talked about on the administration. Clearly, a big factor for us is volume growth and oil price. So more activity would certainly drive higher volumes.

And we have a 200,000 to 300,000 barrel day guidance for our growth in the Permian. But as we go forward and you listen to some of the calls of some of the producers out there, there's a lot of activity that's going on. It's been consistent. It's also been more productive. They've been able to produce more volumes with lower rigs and completion rigs completion activities. So if I were to take the over or under on momentum, I would take the over into 2025. And those are some of the key factors I see.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is on Ironwood, like you're highlighting the fact that it bolsters your Western footprint, but it's also giving you a little bit of opportunity extending the footprint into the East. So given your strategy of bolt on, can we think that maybe you could add do more deeps to further enhance this East footprint now that you have got a hold to this Ironwood Midstream bolt on?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Manav, this is Jeremy. Thank you for the question. The easiest way to think about it is we had a strong footprint in Eagle Ford, the Western assets of Ironwood, overlay our existing system and create a number of synergies between capital and extending our value chain there. On the East Side, it is a new area for us. It was basically an asset base run by a private equity company.

We're trying to integrate it into our broader footprint and run it like a full integrated midstream business like we do. So over time, what happened this year's guide is more about integrating, getting under our foot and getting those investments in place to allow us to be integrated. I think you'd see just like we've proven with other acquisitions, the ability to compress the multiple over time by driving additional businesses and opportunities through that footprint.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Perfect. Congratulations. I think your strategy of going from defense to offenses is really working. Thank you.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Manav.

Operator (participant)

And one moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Michael Blum of Wells Fargo. Your line is open, Michael.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, everyone. So I wanted to ask you previously guided flat EBITDA from 2024 to 2026, growth projects will offset Cactus recontracting. Here you're up a little bit in 2025. So just wanted to get a sense of do you now expect EBITDA is going to increase gradually from here on out or are there other puts and takes that we should be considering over the next couple of years?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Michael Willey again here. Thanks for the question. I really want to get away from this '24 to '26 flat guidance. I'll give you context again on why we talked about it back then. We had long term contracts that were rolling off.

These were very good contracts that rolled off back to market rates, which we expected. And the purpose of the guide at that point in time was taking a point in time outlook of the business as we had it. We wanted people to realize there was not a clip that was coming. And that's why we talked about the flat '24 to '26 on the crude sector on the crude segment. Now clearly, as we build our business and continue to grow, our expectations would be that '26 is going to be over '24.

And so with the just even with the deals we just announced, as far as this first tranche, as we think about playing offense, that obviously adds to the base business. So going into '26, I would say at this point in time, '26 is going to be higher than 2024. The next question you'll likely ask is what's the pace and trajectory of that growth. And I would tell you, we're going to continue to grow our base business. We've got a lot of integration and footprint to be able to capture synergies.

We've got streamlining efforts that are ongoing with this whole efficient growth strategy that we've embarked upon. And any bolt ons that we might be able to do beyond that would just would add to it. And so that's a little bit of lumpiness in growth, but clearly our plan and our mission is to increase enterprise value for the unitholders and going forward we're just going to continue to execute against this strategy.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thanks for that. That's helpful. The other question I wanted to ask, in December, you talked about initiatives to streamline operations, you talked about it could lead to higher margins, expense savings. I wonder if you could just provide an update on that, any details and whether any of that is baked into the guidance for 2025? Thanks.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Yes, Michael. The way we would I would think about the cost and streamlining effort is it's a continuous process. So this is not something we're going to come out and proclaim a program on how much cost we can cut out of the organization, how we can streamline our business. It's what we do. So there are some efficiency streamlining numbers in our numbers this year.

But most importantly, as we kind of build our business with the synergies on some of the things that we bring into the system as far as bolt ons and we have a ERP project enterprise risk enterprise kind of consolidating our financial programs, we think that's going to give us an opportunity to drive some more synergies and opportunities synergies and get some opportunities to further streamline. So it's really something that's baked into what we do every day. And I think what you'll do is you'll see continuous progress as we go through the year and even into next year.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Michael.

Operator (participant)

And our next question will be coming from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan Securities LLC. Your line is open, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Good morning, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks for all the color today. Just want to expand a bit more on the M and A strategy. And clearly, all these bolt on plans can drive very nice synergies just by connecting this system. But just curious, I guess, as you think about an asset in the Mid Con and maybe you can get a bunch of synergies that's kind of a one time step up versus something near the Permian where maybe there's like kind of more continuous organic growth opportunities, how that factors maybe into your process and also just the opportunities that in front of you, do you see more of one of the other?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Jeremy, I'm not sure we heard all that, but the question was really how we think about bolt ons and M and A across our footprint. Is that right?

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Sorry about that. Just like in the Mid Con might be more mature one time step up in synergies versus in the Permian where there could be the synergies for connecting, but also organic growth on top of it.

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sure. A couple of examples from last year, the Stroud acquisition earlier in the year, that's creating a new platform and long term contracted business. We're bringing wax in, it creates throughput and blending into our terminal system through Cushing. It extends customers reach within our facilities and their contracts and adjacent facilities that hit blending. So that's a new platform and a step up.

And so that has synergies to the asset itself, which you take an asset that has zero EBITDA and turn it into something that's a long term business and then create stickiness to your terminal. And you take the recent transaction with CVR, which was a win win for them and us. We brought them in in 2017. They needed some financing for the projects that they're working on and the turnarounds. We get very long dedications through our terminal and through the pipeline and significant commitments to that pipeline to allow us to have a very long term relationship with them at mutually agreeable rates.

So I think it's Willie talked about it, but Mid Con is a great long term asset and our outside Permian assets for free cash flow generation. And this just ensures they'll be that way for decades.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Jeremy, this is Willie. Just to add something on to Jeremy's comments. If you think about our system and you know well, it's very dynamic. It gives us a lot of opportunity to do different things. And earlier, we had the question around what might happen around Canadian crude tariffs or for example, crude tariffs.

And if you just look at our footprint, you could see if volumes didn't find their way to The U. S, which is not what our outlook is. But we do have a big system that could swing and bring volumes from the Permian ultimately into Cushing, Cushing into the Mid Continent North. So you can see there's a broad system that's very flexible that we think about lots of different option values and it's good to have choices and options as we go forward.

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Optionality makes sense. And maybe just taking a step back, if I could, if we could if you could share your views, I guess, more on the macro side, crude oil prices, how you see unfolding in just kind of, which basins you see growth in over time, I guess, just a longer range look at the macro, how you guys feel about that?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sure. It's constructive. We've heard a lot of our peers' calls about low distillate inventories, globally lower crude inventories. You've got the supply and demand fundamentals, which were in this neighborhood, but you've got a lot of policy that's driving crude prices right now. And a lot of that could be more sanctions on Iran, more sanctions on Venezuela, tariffs, all of those things could lead to price increases filling the SVR.

So there's a lot of things that are balancing. And so the headlines are leading to driving price and people are a little bit confused as to which way it's going. But we think the backdrop is constructive from a physical standpoint, from a demand standpoint and then policies only enhancing that. And then from which basins are growing, there's pockets in The Rockies that are growing, there's Canada that's growing, the Permian is growing and then we're even seeing new developments in the Eagle Ford area and the Mid Continent area that are drawing capital. So we see pockets of growth around the existing assets and then we see more broad longer term.

We see Canada, The Rockies and the Permian as growth by different areas and that's where you're seeing a lot of the investment from us as well.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Jeremy and Willie again, you notice again, but if you think about our footprint and Jeremy outlined that we expect flat growth in outside the basins of the Permian and in Canada, but we're in great ZIP Codes. The Permian is the growth engine for The U. S. One could argue it's probably broader for the world even. And then Western Canada, let's not forget that we've got a footprint there that's able to take additional NGLs out of gas to produce NGLs that are needed.

So two growth areas, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Permian Basin, we're in both of those ZIP Codes.

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Makes sense. Thank you for that.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And one moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank. Your line is open Brandon.

Brandon Bingham (Associate Director - Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I was just wondering maybe, excuse me, if we could kind of go back to the EBITDA guide. If you could just maybe talk about what the underlying Till Pop count looks like that's going into that guide? Are customers generally increasing the well counts year over year, decreasing?

Is it flat? Just how does that compare versus where it came in for 2024? I know you said and it's obvious guys are doing more with less now, but I was just curious if the tone of those conversations with your customers is maybe incrementally more positive with, I don't know, Trump administration now or Chris Wright getting in there as Secretary of Energy. Just what are kind of some of the moving pieces there that are underpinning the EBITDA guide and the macro outlook?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Hi Brandon. I would say it's very consistent if you stick to the Permian Basin where our largest lease gathering activity and then the Eagle Ford work where we have the Ironwood very consistent to from last year to this year, consistent pace. There's not a bunch of chasing one and two well locations, which is very much more efficient for us and them. So I'd say it's steady state to last year, this year, very similar new connections, very similar behind pipe connections, gives us additional confidence in the forecast that Willie outlined at the beginning of the call.

Brandon Bingham (Associate Director - Equity Research)

Awesome, great. And then maybe if we could just turn to the CapEx guide for this year. Could you just help us understand some of the moving pieces embedded in the guide? If there's anything related to the deals from January that's in there for this year that might be even dropping lower next year? Was there any slippage from '24 into this year?

I know Q4 CapEx came in a little light versus our expectations. Just any detail you guys could provide would be helpful.

Chris Chandler (EVP and COO)

Hey Brandon, this is Chris Chandler. I'd be happy to answer your question. You actually hit on a number of our points, so we do appreciate that. We were able to defer some capital out of '24 into '25 and we always try to optimize our capital spend and not spend it before it's needed. So that's contributing to a higher spend in '25 and '24.

We also touched on we've grown our acreage dedication in the Permian much like Jeremy just answered and that's driving some additional investment, which will drive additional volume of course. And then as far as our larger projects in 2025, the two big ones outside the Permian are the Fort Sask expansion project and that's going to come online here in the second quarter of twenty twenty five. And then we're making some investments in the Mid Con as Jeremy just mentioned to be able to offload crude from the Uinta Wax Basin and that's a nice new business platform for us and driving some of the CapEx spend as well. But to summarize, we're still within our long term $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of investment capital net to Plains. So we remain committed to capital discipline and are still within that range.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

And Brandon, all of these projects go through our investment committee. So we stressed out all these on returns to make sure that we're only doing the ones that have the best benefit for us.

Brandon Bingham (Associate Director - Equity Research)

Awesome. Great to hear. Thanks.

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And one moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Spiro Dounis of Citi.

Spiro Dounis (Director)

Wanted to touch on the long haul open position first. Last time we chatted, you had a fairly open position heading into 2026. Just curious where that stands now given the tightening egress you guys pointed out in the slides and maybe any plans to firm up that capacity?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Thanks, Biro. This is Jeremy. I'd say it's very consistent. Long haul to Corpus is contracted. Our Houston positions are largely contracted with the exception of BridgeTex, but we make progress in continuing to extend those contracts or restructure those contracts.

And then with respect to Basin, we're seeing incremental demand, which we've put into the guide. And we'll stick to shorter term contracts until we see the tariffs where we want them to be longer term and expect them to be as the basin continues to fill. So I'd say it's fairly consistent, but it's definitely constructive.

Spiro Dounis (Director)

Great. Good to hear. Second one, just moving on to the distribution. You guys once again chose an accelerated growth level. Historically, you sort of talked about growth expectations being surpassed as the main driver on why it accelerate that growth a little bit each year.

But going forward, it does sound like bolt ons are going to be perhaps maybe a really meaningful driver of growth. And so just sort of curious, like all else equal, is it fair to say that each bolt on increases your ability to push that next distribution increase above your baseline amount?

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

That's

Obviously, as you think about our business, we've got the base business growth and then we've got bolt ons. So we factor all of that as we go forward. And I mean, we've been very pleased to be able to return more back to the end holders. On November, we came out with this framework targeting the $0.15 and we've been able to do $0.2 increases in $0.23 and $0.24 and now the $0.25 increase in $0.25 So I think the framework works and when we do better, more money goes back to the unitholders. But there's a lot of moving parts, but generally speaking, you're absolutely right.

We have a little bit of coverage buffer over this period of time to allow us to continue to grow even if the bolt ons and growth may not have been there. But as we go forward and shrink some of that buffer, it's going to be more dependent upon our base business and the timeliness of some of those bolt ons.

Spiro Dounis (Director)

Great. I'll leave it there. Have a good weekend, guys.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Yes. One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Sunil Sibal of Seaport Global. Your line is open.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director)

Yes. Hi, good morning, everybody, and thanks for the clarity on the call. So I just wanted to start with your volume guidance or expectations in Permian. How should we be thinking on cadence on those volumes in 2025? And then you guys mentioned the Permian overall volume growth of 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day.

How do we think of that growth versus your guide if the basin comes out to be towards the higher end of that range, should we think of upside in terms of your volume numbers in Permian?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sunil, this is Jeremy. First, your cadence on the production growth, I'd say it's consistent with last year. If you think about last year, weather in the beginning of the year led to flattish through the first part of the year and growth July through November was strong and then we start to flatten out towards the end of the year, same thing we'll see this year. So I'd say it's second half weighted, but very similar. I think in the context of does it impact our guide?

The way I think about it is 300,000 barrels in that day in the context of a 6,500,000 barrel a day plus basin, that's really small on a relative basis. So I think the range certainly encompasses the 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day. We look at it as a buildup from all the producers we have in a top down and those both marry pretty well. So I'd say that you're not going to see material value variation based

Jeremy Tonet (ED - Equity Research Analyst)

on that range $200,000

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

to $300,000 It will be within our guide.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks for that. And then on the NGL business, seems like there have been some changes in the competitive landscape and are happening as we speak in the NGL business in Canada. How should we think about planes positioning in that area?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sunil, I'd say a lot of the positioning that you've seen in The Gulf Coast and even Kiara's announcement today, that's not going to have a significant impact in the positioning from ours. We have very unique assets that can't be replicated and we're very happy with our Canadian NGL footprint and our competitiveness.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks for that.

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Thanks, Sunil.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Jean Ann Salisbury of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Jean Ann Salisbury (Managing Director)

Hi, good morning. I have a question about the guidance for long haul on Slide five. So you show overall Permian growth of around 300,000, but then that Plains long haul will grow by 170, so kind of getting over half of that growth. It's a little more market share than I would have expected you to gain this year, given Gray Oak expansion and Seminole returning to crude service. I was wondering if you could give any more color on the assumptions there, about how much I don't know how much toll to Cushing there will be or if it's driven by the bolt ons or contract adds or just anything underlying that?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sure. So length of lecture is easy. That's just a step up in contracts. Physical flow on the Cactus pipelines due to some connecting carrier downtime led to some artificial downtime last year, but that will be full. So Cactus I and Cactus II where they had some physical lag last year won't have that this year.

And then the Pulte Basin is pretty unique on our system. So I think it's a function of timing and some unique circumstances that happened last year.

Jean Ann Salisbury (Managing Director)

Okay. That makes sense. That's all for me. Thank you.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Jean Anne.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment. Our next question will be coming from A. J. O'Donnell of TPH. Your line is open.

Andrew O'Donnell (Director - Equity Research)

Good morning, everyone. Maybe just going back to some of the comments on basin that Willie talked about in his prepared remarks. Just given where Cushing inventories are and how low they are, curious if you guys to shift around earlier this year, where you could see some of that growth be front weighted versus back half weighted how you've indicated?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sure. With respect to Basin, remember it's a refinery pool pipeline and so you have peak maintenance season right now. So typical for basements, you'll see lower first quarter volumes unless there's an upset and then you'll see higher through the driving season. So I think you'll see more full artificial things that could impact that tariffs could certainly impact the pull to domestic refiners to substitute for Canadian barrels. But I would say by and large volume growth once the Gulf Coast gets filled, you're going to see more push up basin just from a pricing standpoint.

But basin will typically follow refining utilization. So think of it that way.

Andrew O'Donnell (Director - Equity Research)

Okay. And then just one more for me on the NGL segment. Looks like hedges kind of improved. They stepped up a little bit from 60% to 70% and are at $0.7 a gallon. I'm just curious about if you could talk where you're seeing current rates in the market and maybe your ability to hedge the exposed volumes at higher rates?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

Sure. That's certainly the reason why we typically hedge more in the front than the back because you've been in really steep backwardation. So 2026 would be in the low to mid-60s, prompt would be closer to $0.8 And so for us, that's why you've seen more hedging in the front and the back and this year is no different than we've explained in the last couple of years.

Andrew O'Donnell (Director - Equity Research)

Okay. That's all for me. Thank you, guys.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks A. J.

Operator (participant)

And our next question will be coming from Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities. Your line is open Neal.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director - Energy Research)

Good morning guys. Thanks for the time. My first question just you've mentioned this already, Will, in Ironwood. You all have talked about some of the potential Eastern Eagle Ford opportunities around this. I'm just wondering what would the timing be on some of these potential opportunities?

Is this something relatively near term or are you thinking more next year?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

The way I look at it is we've just closed January 31, thrilled to have it. We're canvassing all the customers and looking at opportunities on the integration. So I think it'd be more of next year. So the multiples the teams talked about and returns have been more predicated on what the current cash flows are, not what we can do with the asset. So we're excited about the opportunity set.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director - Energy Research)

That makes sense. And then just a second quick one on capital allocation. Just wondering beyond your targeted sustainable distribution growth and you talked about the bolt on potential, where would opportunistic buybacks fit into this? I mean, again, I think your stock still seems shares seem to see a little discounted versus some of the peers. So I wonder how this would fit in?

Al Swanson (EVP and CFO)

This is Al. We've had really no change in our view with regard to that. Any buybacks would be opportunistic and really kind of think of market dislocation and with the trading of our stock, we would need to see a material kind of change in that valuation. Our preference is to continue to return cash to shareholders or unitholders through distributions like you've seen with this $0.25 increase for 2025.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director - Energy Research)

Got it. Thanks, Hal.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from John McKay of Goldman Sachs and Company. Your line is open.

John Mackay (VP - Equity Research)

Hey guys, good morning. I know we've kind of picked us to death a little bit, but I want to ask one more just on the Permian guide. You're kind of framing Permian as 55% of crude EBITDA this year. We obviously have the Cactus step down later in the year. I was just wondering if you could kind of pick apart the implied Permian EBITDA for the year balancing what's coming off for Cactus I versus what you see kind of underlying EBITDA growth is offsetting that?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

That's where I understand the question. Are you asking for a specific Permian EBITDA guide?

John Mackay (VP - Equity Research)

I guess if we're trying to isolate the Cactus impact, just what you're looking at for overall Permian kind of EBITDA growth year over year relative to that volume guide?

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

The way to think about that is tariff volumes and physical volumes can be different. And so a lot of cases we were paid for volumes that didn't move. And so for Cactus II, some of that will be incremental just as the pipe fills. Cactus I will largely just be a step up in rate for some of the spot. I don't think we're given a specific guide for that piece.

John Mackay (VP - Equity Research)

All right, fair enough. And then, okay.

Al Swanson (EVP and CFO)

And it gives you a little bit the Slide 11 in the deck gives you a little bit of kind of color behind it as far as the cactus impact and some of the growth that it doesn't split it out exactly. I'll take a look at that.

John Mackay (VP - Equity Research)

All right. That's fair. And then just in the context of your view of kind of capacity out of the basin getting tighter next year, and this goes back to I think Spiro's question, but when would you guys expect to be able to come out with something on that recontracting tailwind? Is that a kind of this summer conversation? Do you need to get into next year?

Just trying to think of when we could get an update there? Thanks.

Jeremy Goebel (EVP and CCO)

I think it's just going to be gradual over time. This is also part of the continuous improvement mindset that Willie outlined. This is something we don't have to rush on. Current differentials wouldn't support it, so we would sign shorter term contracts. So we'll let you know if there's something to talk about.

Otherwise, we'll continue to optimize the space. And just because it's not contracted, doesn't mean we're not filling it or finding ways to do shorter term deals and generate revenue from it. So I'd look at it as we are absolutely trying to generate as much margin and revenue as we can and we'll optimize the value of that space. But I wouldn't expect any grand unveil of re contracting for that asset. Asset.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

And John, this is Willie. The way I think about it from a macro standpoint, you've got the capacity and you've got economic capacity. It's going to be hard to build a new long haul pipeline to the Gulf Coast. If you think about the commercial commitments it takes, the permittingsupply chain issues, so I think our view is, then you have to balance it with what you think ultimately Permian growth is going to be. So my guess is we're going to get to this point where it is going to get tighter capacity and we're probably going to live in that space for a while.

And whether or not a new long haul line gets built, it's really going to be dependent upon kind of a broader view of can the Permian go the next step. So I think we're going to be in a pretty good place in the next number of years. We certainly have struggled in the overcapacity years in the past number of years. So I think we're in that whole different sector of time here as we get closer to the full state.

John Mackay (VP - Equity Research)

All right. That's great. I appreciate the thought. Thank you, guys.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, John.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question will be coming from Theresa Chin of Barclays. Your line is open Theresa.

Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst)

I was reminded of what your PLA volumetric exposure is at this point, just as we try to frame up the sensitivity to the $75 WTI assumption within your 2025 guidance.

Blake Fernandez (VP - Investor Relations)

Hey, Theresa, it's Blake. The last update we've given is 4,000,000 barrels a year. So call it a $10 move equates to roughly $40,000,000 of EBITDA.

Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And I would now like to turn the conference back to Willie Chang for closing remarks.

Willie Chiang (Chairman and CEO)

Well, listen, thanks to all of you for dialing in and for your continued interest in Plains. We'll look forward to seeing you soon as we get out on the road. Have a safe weekend.

Operator (participant)

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.