Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- PagSeguro is successfully growing its credit portfolio, focusing on secured lending, with growth from BRL 2.9 billion to BRL 3.2 billion, driven by the secured portfolio, showing strong potential for future revenue increases in a risk-managed way.
- The company's strategic focus on attracting profitable clients, especially in the LMEC segment and SMBs, with a complete platform and improved offerings, is resulting in increased TPV and revenue growth, indicating successful execution and continued market expansion. ,
- Despite macroeconomic challenges such as higher interest rates, PagSeguro is confident in delivering or surpassing its net income guidance, demonstrating resilience and effective management in navigating a challenging environment.
- Exposure to the gaming industry poses regulatory risk: PAGS admits to having clients in the gaming sector, which could be affected by regulatory changes in Brazil. Although management claims this exposure is marginal and not material, any tightening of regulations could negatively impact revenue streams ( , ).
- Expansion into unsecured lending could increase credit risk: The company is piloting nonsecured credit products and plans to offer them in the near future. Introducing unsecured lending in a high-interest-rate environment may expose PAGS to higher default rates and affect asset quality and profitability ( ).
- Uncertainty in capital allocation and shareholder returns: Despite holding a significant net cash balance of over BRL 12 billion, management has not committed to accelerating share buybacks or initiating dividend distributions. The cautious approach to capital deployment and limited execution of the buyback program may raise concerns about the efficient use of capital and shareholder value creation ( , ).
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Net Income | FY 2024 | BRL 2.1B to BRL 2.2B | Confident in delivering or surpassing the top of the range | raised |
SELIC interest rate | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 10.5% | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Credit Portfolio Growth and Lending Strategy | Previously, earnings calls in Q1–Q4 emphasized moderate growth in the credit portfolio driven mostly by secured lending, a gradual resumption of unsecured lending in pilot phases, and steady improvements in NPL90 ratios ( , ). | In Q3 2024, there is strong credit portfolio growth with secured products now representing 85% of the loan book and an impressive drop in the NPL90 ratio to 2.5%, with cautious testing of unsecured lending continuing ( ). | Consistent emphasis on secured lending, with a marked improvement in asset quality and further cautious exploration into unsecured lending. |
Total Payment Volume (TPV) Growth and Segmentation | Q1, Q2, and Q4 discussions highlighted robust TPV growth across segments with steady gains in both MSMB and LMEC groups and detailed segmentation, despite pressures on net take rates ( , , ). | Q3 2024 reported BRL 136 billion TPV with strong growth in both segments—particularly a 62% growth in the LMEC segment—reflecting a continued focus on profitable, diversified merchants ( ). | Recurring strength in TPV growth with an increased emphasis on profitable online and cross-border channels and continued robust multi-segmentation strategy. |
Client Acquisition and Market Expansion | Earlier periods discussed expanding the client base by focusing on high-quality, profitable merchants and increasing presence through diversified channels, including online and cross-border payments ( , , ). | Q3 2024 reaffirmed targeting profitable clients and deepening expansion into online and cross-border payments, despite a slight contraction in active merchants overall, emphasizing a quality-over-quantity strategy ( ). | Persistent focus on quality client acquisition with an escalating push into digital and cross-border markets, signifying strategic refinement over mere volume growth. |
Deposit Growth and Strengthening Funding Base | Q1–Q4 consistently underscored robust deposit growth—ranging from 33% to 87% increases-Year-over-Year—with deposits being pivotal for lowering funding costs and supporting credit portfolio expansion ( , , ). | In Q3 2024, deposits surged by 59% compared to Q3 2023, reinforcing the strategy of lower funding costs and backing both prepayments to merchants and credit growth ( ). | Steady and robust trend in deposit growth, enabling a stronger funding base and aligning with broader strategic objectives in credit and funding economics. |
Profitability and Earnings Performance | Across Q1–Q4, the company reported consistent record-setting net income and EPS trends with maintained guidance amid cost pressures and macroeconomic challenges ( , , ). | Q3 2024 marked record quarterly net income on both GAAP and non‐GAAP bases, with impressive growth in EPS and ROAE, underscoring resilience even as macro challenges persist ( ). | Most positive sentiment so far, with continued record earnings and maintained guidance bolstering confidence despite challenging macro conditions. |
Operating Expenses and Investment Efficiency | Previous calls (Q1, Q2, Q4) noted rising marketing and selling expenses as part of growth investments, with stable operating expense ratios and emphasis on future operating leverage ( , , ). | In Q3 2024, operating expenses decreased to 16.8% of revenue, reflecting effective cost management and a stabilized expense trajectory amid strategic marketing and personnel investments ( ). | Improvement in efficiency as current period shows a lower ratio and better alignment of expenses with revenue growth, supporting a more optimistic outlook on investment returns. |
Regulatory and Compliance Risks | Earlier periods (Q1, Q2, Q4) did not address this topic explicitly. | Q3 2024 introduced a mention of exposure to the gaming industry – noted as marginal and not material – signaling limited regulatory risk in this niche area ( ). | Newly introduced topic with a neutral sentiment indicating minimal impact, suggesting close monitoring but no significant risk at present. |
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns | Discussions in Q1–Q4 revealed a cautious, flexible approach with mention of share buybacks, limited dividend commentary, and an emphasis on reinvesting cash for growth alongside opportunistic buyback programs ( , , ). | Q3 2024 highlighted executed buyback programs (first of $250 million and a second of $200 million, partially executed) with continuous reassessment of capital allocation, while maintaining a cautious approach amid volatile conditions ( ). | Recurring cautious strategy with an increasing tilt towards opportunistic share buybacks, reflecting the balancing act between reinvestment and returning capital to shareholders. |
New Product Initiatives and Service Diversification | In previous reports (Q1, Q2, Q4), the company underscored efforts to resume working capital loans, launch overdraft products, and diversify payment solutions through integrated platforms including online and cross-border channels ( , , ). | Q3 2024 continues the trend by gradually resuming working capital loans and pushing for service expansion in online and cross-border payments, though overdraft products were not re‐emphasized in this period ( , ). | Consistent diversification efforts with continued rollouts in lending and digital services, suggesting a cautious yet optimistic testing phase for new revenue engines. |
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Impact of Increased SELIC Rate
Q: What's the impact of a 100bps SELIC rate increase?
A: A 100 basis point rise in the SELIC rate would increase our financial expenses by approximately BRL 300 million over 12 months, before taxes. We are working to mitigate this impact through measures like increasing prices, diversifying funding sources, and adjusting yields paid on RCDs. We remain confident in delivering our net income guidance despite the higher rates. -
Buyback Program and Capital Allocation
Q: What's the status and future plans for the buyback program?
A: We concluded our first $250 million buyback program in August and initiated a second $200 million program, of which 20% has been executed. There is no expiration date for this program, and we are executing it without rush, focusing on market conditions. We are also continuously assessing our capital structure to balance opportunities for investment and potential changes in 2025. -
Long-Term Growth and Profitability Outlook
Q: Can you discuss your long-term financial profile and midterm guidance?
A: While the market is changing rapidly, we plan to continue growing revenues beyond payments by expanding our banking side. Payments will keep growing, but midterm, the banking segment will become increasingly important for us. -
Lending Appetite and Credit Business
Q: Has your lending appetite changed recently?
A: Our lending appetite has changed slightly; we're piloting non-secured products, though nothing material yet. Our secured portfolio grew from BRL 2.9 billion to BRL 3.2 billion. Despite the macro environment, we see opportunities with low-risk clients but believe it's not the right time to fully expand into non-secured lending. -
Prepayment Revenues Growth
Q: What's driving the strong growth in prepayment revenues?
A: The prepayment portfolio's outstanding balance reached BRL 41 billion, growing 52% year-over-year, higher than TPV growth. This is due to reclassifying some revenue transactions to prepayment revenue and aligning the prepayment business with TPV growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming quarters. -
Exposure to Gaming Industry
Q: Do you have exposure to the gaming or gambling industry?
A: We have some online clients in the regulated gaming industry, but it represents a low single-digit percentage of our bottom line and is not material. Any changes in this sector would not significantly affect our financials. -
Client Mix and Revenue Sources
Q: How does client mix shift affect revenue sources?
A: As we onboard more LMEC clients and PIX usage increases, we analyze total revenue rather than splitting between transaction and financial income. Growing revenue consistently at 20% year-over-year is our primary focus, regardless of shifts between prepayment and transaction fees. -
Cost of Deposits and Checking Accounts
Q: Can you explain the decline in checking account balances?
A: The sequential decline from BRL 11.5 billion to BRL 10.5 billion is due to seasonality, with the last day of Q2 being a Sunday and Q3 ending on a Monday, affecting withdrawal patterns. Daily average deposits are actually growing. We continue initiatives to reduce cost of deposits successfully. -
Administrative Expenses Increase
Q: What's behind higher personnel expense provisions?
A: The higher provisions are for employee bonuses, as we are performing above our guidance. This increase is company-wide and not specific to any department. -
Driving Client Engagement
Q: What is driving increased client engagement?
A: Our comprehensive digital bank offers many features, with the most common being cash in/out, transfers via PIX, card usage, and bill payments. Engagement is also growing in investments and insurance products. Users are accessing our app 35 times per month, up from 31 times, indicating higher engagement.