Pampa Energía - Earnings Call - Q2 2025
August 7, 2025
Transcript
Speaker 1
Part of the 2025 Results Video Conference. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. All participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation. After the company's remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Questions can only be sent in writing through Zoom. Should any participant need assistance, please send us a chat message. Before continuing, please read the disclaimer on the second page of our presentation. Let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on Pampa Energía's management beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they are related to future events that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic and industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energía and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.
Now I will turn to Lida. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Raquel. Hello everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I will make a real quick summary of the Q2 so we can have more time for questions with the management. Today, for the Q&A, we have our CEO, Mr. Gustavo Mariani, our Head of Oil and Gas, Mr. Horacio Turri, and our CFO, Mr. Adolfo Zuberbuhler. Going to slide three, several key developments mark the second quarter of 2025. First and foremost is the successful production ramp-up in Rincón de Aranda, thanks to the tightening of new paths in coordination with the commissioning of supporting infrastructure, such as the temporary processing facility, internal and trunk pipelines, and so on. Also, the contribution of the new 140 MW wind farm PP6 and the higher spot prices boosted the quarter's figures. However, colder temperatures started in June, which delayed the spike of the winter.
The winter spike in both power and gas demand. Petcam contributed positive EBITDA, continued gradually recovering, returning to a positive EBITDA. Finally, in a proactive liability management transaction, we extended the 2029 notes to 2034 with a $140 million recap issued at the lowest spreads over U.S. treasuries in Pampa's history. Let's move into the quarter's financial results. The adjusted EBITDA amounted to $239 million. This is up a 17% decline year-on-year, driven by soft gas sales, falling pet-cam prices, and higher operating expenses weighted on the performance. The headwinds were partially offset by contributions from the new PP6, the wind farm, increased gas exports to Chile, and higher production at Rincón de Aranda. Quarter-on-quarter EBITDA improved due to the seasonality and growing output at Rincón de Aranda. CapEx surged 144% year-on-year, reaching $354 million. The majority, which is $249 million, was invested in the development of Rincón de Aranda.
Moving on to slide four, the oil and gas adjusted EBITDA was at $87 million, down 28% year-on-year, largely due to reduced domestic gas sales to retail and thermal power as the colder weather arrived later than usual. The expiration of winter peak contracts between May and September under the planned gas GSA also impacted the results, though in June, that performed very strongly as if the GSA remained in place. Higher lifting costs, especially from Rincón de Aranda, also affected EBITDA performance. However, increased gas exports to Chile and stronger crude oil production at Rincón de Aranda helped to balance this decline. The lease of temporary facilities at Rincón de Aranda and gas treatment fees pushed the lifting costs up to $7.6 per BOE. In particular, gas lifting costs rose to $1.1 per million cubic. This is influenced also by the lower output.
Quarter-on-quarter lifting costs per BOE increased moderately, explained by the transition from trucking to in-house and leased facilities, offset by the seasonality. Total production averaged 84,000 barrels per day. This is down 7% year-on-year due to the output decreases at El Mangrullo and non-operating loss, partially offset by Rincón de Aranda and Sierra Chata gas field. Quarter-on-quarter, the production is up 16%, again explained by the seasonal effects and shale oil. The production mix continues to shift with oil rising to 9% of the total production output and contributing 18% of the oil and gas revenues, entirely due to Rincón de Aranda ramp-up. Also, we tied in two shale wells targeting Vaca Muerta at Río Neuquén block, the block's first shale development alongside new tight gas wells. Río Neuquén is not operated by Pampa. Crude oil prices averaged nearly $62 per barrel in Q2.
This is 14% lower than last year, mainly explained by the Brent underperformance affecting exports mostly. However, our hedging strategy around Rincón de Aranda's rising production helped to mitigate the price drop. Total gas sales fell 11% year-on-year. This is to almost 14 million cubic meters per day, but rose 10% from Q1, less as explained recently again by seasonality. The Mangrullo block continued to lead the output, though its share declined to 58% of the total gas volume in Q2. Meanwhile, Sierra Chata increased its share to 29% of the gas output in Q2 with a 14% production gain year-on-year. In Sierra Chata, we drilled four wells and tied in three year-to-date. 57% of the Q2 output is considered shale gas. In line with our commitments with the exploratory block in Pampa Negra Este, we drilled a horizontal shale well, which is currently awaiting completion and testing.
Pampa extended Pampa Negra Este exploratory license until 2027. In the gas prices, they averaged $4 per million cubic in the quarter, remaining steady year-on-year due to the Brent prices that affected export prices and offset by improved retail prices and improved marginally in the industrial segment. Half of our gas was delivered to CAMMESA for power thermal generation under the planned gas GSA. If you see the nationwide gas, we contributed 17% of the gas consumed totally in the country for power generation. Since May, we have increased our flows to Chile through two pipelines, right? Gas Andes and Gas Pacífico, capitalizing on the competitiveness of our gas relative to LNG. By June, the exports had reached 1.1 million cubic meters per day, same as today. Though Q2 gas sales were soft, June rebounded sharply with the colder temperatures.
On July 24, we hit a new all-time high daily production, high at 17.4 million cubic meters per day, driven by the outstanding shale wells at Sierra Chata. The most recent tied-in pad of three wells we peaked at 2.7 million cubic meters per day in June, highlighting its solid productivity and competitiveness. Focusing now on Rincón de Aranda, we have five pads having drilled, four of which are online. During Q2, the block produced an average of 5.3 thousand barrels per day, exiting June at 8.8 thousand barrels per day. This growth was mainly driven by the pads number two and number four. The latter began really producing in late June, and it didn't by then completely clear out the water, so it wasn't tested. Currently, Rincón de Aranda is delivering almost 16,000 barrels per day from four pads.
The last two pads were tied in during July, and they're still under well testing. For 2025, we budget $800 million in total capex, having already invested over $360 million year to date. We expect it to reach 20,000 barrels per day at Rincón de Aranda by Q4 and aim to reach a target of 45,000 barrels per day by 2027 when Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline is online. To support this ramp-up, we secure trunk pipelines, transportation agreements in Vaca Muerta Sur, and demos and duplicates. In June, we applied to the RIJI framework for the Central Processing Facility, AKA CPF, and all related infrastructure needed to evacuate the target production level as shown in the video on the screen. The CPF flow lines, pipelines, water treatment pools, and all required investment is approximately $426 million, of which the CPF is slated to begin by next year.
Switching to power generation on slide nine, we posted an adjusted EBITDA of $112 million in the Q2. This is a 5% increase year-on-year, mainly explained by PP6 performance and higher spot prices measured in dollars, partially offset by increased operating costs and scheduled outages. Generation volumes declined 7% year-on-year and availability stood at 92% due to the maintenance at Loma de Lata. Upgrade works in Barragán CCGT for efficiency and lower gas emissions, and the hydro's newly listed outages in two out of the three dams since January of this year. Still, increased gas supply and PP6 helped to offset the decreases. Capacity payments, particularly under the taker pay PPAs, continue to support 70% of the segment's EBITDA. Turning to slide 10 about the cash flow, we only show restricted growth figures because they are aligned with the bond parameter.
In Q2, we posted a free cash flow outflow of $307 million. This is mainly driven by the CapEx that we're doing at Rincón de Aranda, which accounted for 75% of the total investment, along with an uptick in seasonal working capital as gas sales peaked during Q2 and Q3, right? As a result, cash and cash equivalents stood at $879 million at the quarter end. Finally, in the balance sheet, gross debt was nearly $1.6 billion, down 23% since December 2024, thanks to the redemption of the 27th and the 29th notes. Debt rose to $712 million. This is 1.1 times net leverage ratio, reflecting the cash flow for CapEx and the working capital needs. Our successful liability management efforts extended the net debt average life to 6.2 years from 4.2 years, significantly improving the maturity profile and the high drawdown in cash from Rincón de Aranda.
This concludes our presentation. Now the floor is open for questions. If you have a question, please send it to the Zoom chat. We'll read it and answer them in order received. Make sure your name and the company is correctly displayed to introduce you to the audience. Should any participant need assistance, just write it through the Zoom chat. We are calling for questions, so please wait a little bit. Thank you. All right, cool. Let's head it off. No, no, we have already received questions.
Speaker 1
Okay.
Speaker 2
Horacio, is open? Yeah.
Speaker 1
No, todavía, pero por eso.
Speaker 2
Because the first question goes to you.
Speaker 4
I'm 99%.
Speaker 2
I'm 99% target to Horacio Turri, which is, could you give us more color from Jonathan's work from that wire? Could you give us more color of the CPF in Rincón de Aranda, please?
Speaker 0
Good morning everybody. Thanks for joining the meeting. The CPF stands for Central Processing Facility and basically has three different, I would say, purposes. One obviously is the oil and water separation and the disposal of that flowback water, the possibility of having the oil ready to be dispatched to the YPF facility in order to get it in spec for injection in the main pipeline, and also the separation of natural gas, which is currently being sent through a gas pipeline to the Vista facility in Batería 3, which has already been connected. This Central Processing Facility has a total output of 7,000 cubic meters per day, and we expect it to be finished by the end of 2026.
Speaker 2
Which is 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Speaker 0
Which is 40, yeah, it's a little bit less than 45,000 barrels per day, 42 or something.
Speaker 2
Which is our plateau.
Speaker 0
This is our expected plateau. That is right.
Speaker 2
Awesome. The next question, yes, it's for Gustavo. Have you already started self-producing with your own fuel, meaning self-producing power, right? With your own fuel, if not, when do you expect to begin? Which is the spread between CAMMESA's reference price and your own procurement price?
Speaker 3
Okay. Good morning everybody. Yes, we have begun to self-procure our own gas to our facilities, but on a marginal basis because, as you know, the deregulation has not occurred yet. There are some opportunities for us to self-procure our fuel on some of our facilities, those that do not require firm gas transportation or whether those days we find a firm transportation capacity. The answer is yes, we have begun to do it on a marginal basis. You ask about this.
Speaker 2
The price.
Speaker 3
The price.
Speaker 2
What's the spread against the plant gas price, I guess?
Speaker 3
Yes. Currently, correct me, it's $9, is what?
Speaker 0
No, no, it's what?
Speaker 3
Currently, it's $8. Yeah, the word CAMESA has been changing this regulation or this pricing has been initially allowed generators to buy natural gas up to $11 per million BTU, then to $9 per million BTU. This current two weeks, because it's a system that changes every two weeks, it's $8 per million BTU. The spread to winter gas price is about $3.50 or something like that. Winter gas price for CAMESA is around $4.50, I would say.
Speaker 2
It's in Loma de Lata, right? Specifically.
Speaker 3
That's the facility that we are able to take advantage of this opportunity because it doesn't require gas transportation.
Speaker 2
Awesome. Next question comes from Guido Bizosedo from Alaria, and he asks again, Horacio, regarding Rincón de Aranda, could you give us any color on the expected evolution of the lifting costs throughout the second half of the year and 2026, considering the ramp-up expected in production and until the processing plant is constructed?
Speaker 0
Second quarter of 2025, we were a little bit below $16 per barrel, basically due to the fixed cost of the TPF, of the temporary production facility, which has a lease that has to be paid annually and is fixed. The production rate at the second quarter of 2025 was 5,000 barrels per day. That explains the high lifting cost. Moving to the first half of 2025, due to the increase in production, as Lida mentioned before, we are close to 15,000 barrels per day. We are reaching around $8.50 per barrel in terms of lifting cost. We also reduced significantly the figure from the first quarter due to the connection of our oil pipeline. We were evacuating oil through trucks at the very beginning. By 2026, with the increase in production to 20,000 barrels per day, we should be hitting around $7 per barrel.
The final stage would be the installation and construction of the CPF, and that will move down the lifting cost to $5 per barrel with a plateau of 45,000 barrels per day.
Speaker 2
Awesome. Thank you. You mentioned the average price would have been $58.50 per barrel without the hedging strategy in Q2 2025, because I mentioned that, despite the $67.50 Brent average in the period. Are you planning to hedge production during 2026?
Speaker 3
it $58? It's net.
Speaker 2
Neto.
Speaker 3
Previsado. Bueno, está comparando el Brent con el neto.
Speaker 0
Go ahead. I think that the main difference is that the brand has two discounts in order to be transformed in the well.
Speaker 3
Well priced.
Speaker 0
The wellhead price, one is the export tax, which is 8%, and also there's a premium for Medanito quality, which ranges, but it's around $2 to $1.50 per barrel.
Speaker 3
A discount, not a premium.
Speaker 0
A negative premium.
Speaker 3
A negative premium, yes.
Speaker 0
This is basically the explanation. Regarding the hedging for 2026, we already started hedging. We are already hedged until September, but July is the exercise month.
Speaker 3
Yeah, basically we have one year forward. We are hedged at currently around 70% to 75% of our expected production at a price of $69.
Speaker 2
Do you expect better prices, Horacio? I mean, less discount versus brands. When you reach the 20,000 barrels production target by year-end, a little bit of futurology, but.
Speaker 3
It's impossible to predict it at all. We don't feel that we can predict it. We look at the future prices of Brent as the best indication of where prices are going to be. We cannot say anything better than what the future market curves predict.
Speaker 2
Great. Guido asks about the CESA project, which is the floating LNG project. Do you expect any participation in the construction and maintenance of the required new gas pipelines for TGS?
Speaker 0
We are still in discussions and trying to put together the best solution for that. Eventually, TGS could be part of the consortium to build and operate that gas pipeline.
Speaker 2
How much gas may Pampa add in sales for these two ships in 2027 and 2028? How much capex do you need to achieve it?
Speaker 0
Okay. The total amount of gas at the end of the two vessels being operational in Argentina is around 6 million cubic meters per day. That is by the end of 2028. The CapEx associated is for the ramp-up and the construction of a new facility in Sierra Chata. We are talking about $400 million, out of which 50% is facility, 50% is per drilling and completion. We will have around $60 to $80 million per year on a plateau basis to keep up with the $6 million.
Speaker 2
Right. The $6 million, it's breakdown between $2.5 million for the first ship and the.
Speaker 0
Yeah, that's the total amount at the end of the two vessels being operational. It's approximately 40% with the first vessel and 60% with the second vessel.
Speaker 2
Awesome. He asked the last question about the TGS private initiative. How much annual EBITDA contribution for TGS do you expect for this project?
Speaker 3
No, I don't have that figure in my mind. Should I ask that too.
Speaker 2
Over $1 million. That's what they said.
Speaker 3
Yeah.
Speaker 2
You can.
Speaker 3
I should ask that to TGS once.
Speaker 2
Once it's done.
Speaker 3
Once it's awarded.
Speaker 2
Yeah, because the award, it's in October.
Speaker 3
In October.
Speaker 2
It's the sole bidder, so I don't know if they are going to wait until October. How much gas may Pampa add in the production considering the 14 million cubic meters per day new capacity for the Perito Moreno pipeline?
Speaker 0
Eventually, Pampa Energía has reserves to supply all that gas. How much, what market share of that new market will Pampa Energía gain? It's a question that we still don't have an answer. We expect that this increase in the capacity of the pipeline, these 14 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, are going to be used for a short period of time, something like around 100 days per year, mostly during wintertime. It will replace imports of LNG and diesel oil that the country does at much higher prices. Pricing for this gas should be close to that import parity. We will see once that market develops.
Speaker 2
Let's see. Are you good on? No, I want to talk to the floor. I want to see it later. Sorry. This is a new streaming room. Something that we always ask in every quarter is what prices of natural gas are you forecasting for this project?
Speaker 0
That is why.
Speaker 2
Ale Michelis from Jefferies is asking something about the lifting costs and drilling costs that we already answered, right? Drilling costs, we didn't answer though. He's asking how the drilling costs are evolving.
Speaker 0
Okay. Drilling costs are going down. Specifically talking about drilling, we moved from a drilling efficiency of around 500 to 600 meters per day to around 900 meters per day. We are improving significantly in our drilling efficiency. On top of that, we also made some improvements in our stage fracking per day, moving from 6 or 7 to around 8 or 10 to 11. In all, with the improvements in completion and drilling, we should be able to reduce our total cost per well from $15.5 million to something around $13 million. This is going to take some more time, probably one more year.
Speaker 2
Okay. What level of shale oil production do you expect from Rincón de Aranda? This is what we already mentioned.
Speaker 0
Already mentioned.
Speaker 2
Quarterly, I guess, but no. Next quarter, it says.
Speaker 0
Next quarter.
Speaker 2
Next quarters.
Speaker 0
Next quarters. Okay. No problem. We are currently in, I mean, in the range of 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and we should be increasing our production in order to reach 18,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the year, by the last quarter. That's more or less what we have in our minds as a ramp-up.
Speaker 3
We could say that before we were expecting to reach that by year-end, and now the average of the fourth quarter is going to be around that. It's like the good results of Rincón de Aranda have anticipated.
Speaker 0
Yeah. There is a mixture there, but all in all, we're going to be reaching the 18,000 or 19,000, 20,000 barrels per day by year-end. There might be a gap in the next quarter, but by the end of the year, we should be definitely reaching the 18,000 to 20,000 barrels per day.
Speaker 2
Ale Michelis is also asking the devolution of Río Neuquén. I don't know.
Speaker 0
Rio Neuquén in terms of shale oil?
Speaker 2
No, in the.
Speaker 0
The Rio Neuquén shale oil project is very, very, I mean, it's at the very early stage. It's exploratory. There have been two wells that have been drilled already, and still a long way to go. I mean, it's not a project. It's just a pilot.
Speaker 2
It's on the border of Vaca Muerta, right?
Speaker 0
It's a border of Vaca Muerta. The results have not been that bad. I mean, it's okay. We still have a long way to go in order to decide whether to move steady ahead.
Speaker 2
Julian Casas from Latin Securities also asks about the lifting trends, so we already answered that. Bruno Montarelli from Morgan Stanley, though, he is asking, can you comment on the expectations for cash generation in the second half of 2025? In particular, should we see the same CapEx intensity as Rincón de Aranda? What about the working capital? Should there be any reversal for the pressure observed in the second half of 2025?
Speaker 3
The cash generation in the second half of 2025 is going to be negative, as we have been saying for a few quarters. 2025 and 2026 are going to be years where basically because of the money that we will be deploying in Rincón de Aranda, that I remind you is going to be $1.5 billion between 2025 and 2026, we will be having negative free cash flow in Pampa, investing in excess of our free cash flow generation. The intensity will continue in the second half of this year, and in the first half of next year, you should be expecting negative free cash flow. Anything else he asked?
Speaker 2
Working capital. What do you think about working capital? Usually, it gets better in the second half of the year, right?
Speaker 3
I don't know.
Speaker 2
Guido, would you like to comment?
Speaker 3
Capital? We don't project to have more working capital. Should we recover all the production from the third quarter and the fourth quarter, it should improve.
Speaker 0
Yeah, because sales will increase, there will be a little bit more working capital involved in the coming quarters, but that's something natural because of the increase in sales.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I'll remind you all that Pampa Energía, it's a golf course, right? This is our peak moment, Q2 and Q3. Also, can you comment on the company's learning curve in operating shale oil? Horacio?
Speaker 0
Yeah, we are definitely learning a lot. As I mentioned before, we were able to take advantage of this productivity increase both in drilling and completion. We are now trying to understand a little bit better whether the long-range sand versus the short-range sand and the spacing between stages have to remain constant or if that is something that we can keep on trying to understand better and eventually improve some more dollars in our total cost per well.
Speaker 2
Yes, also, what positive surprises have you been seeing or any main challenges since the beginning of the operation at Rincón de Aranda?
Speaker 0
Okay. I would say that the most interesting surprise we had in Rincón de Aranda is that originally we had two landing zones, the Cocina and the Orgánico Inferior. We had some expectations on the Orgánico Superior, but with a lot of uncertainty, we drilled. In the part number six, we drilled as well to the Orgánico Superior target, with a very, very good performance. That opens up the possibility of developing as well a third layer that was not before taken into account.
Speaker 2
Right. Basically, cut the company's confidence with the growth profile to reach the peak production as planned.
Speaker 0
Yeah.
Speaker 2
All right. Next question comes from Lida Wang from HSBC, and she asked, for Horacio, could you give us more color of the LNG projects going on in Argentina, specifically on the timing and your interest in participating?
Speaker 0
Can comment only on the one we're participating. The other two projects are YPF projects, and I'd rather ask them what they're going to do about that.
Speaker 2
Yeah, she asks if we are interested in participating.
Speaker 3
We have, as we always say, very competitive gas reserves. We are always interested in projects that could allow us to develop these extraordinary gas reserves that we have. Today, we are 100% focused on the CESA project, the one that is already underway. We are discussing with YPF and the other partners the other possibility, but there's not much to say there.
Speaker 2
She asks, where do you see high upside potential? Power, TGS, or E&P? Very straightforward.
Speaker 0
I think there is upside potential in all the three segments. Obviously, in the near term, E&P is where the growth on the adjusted EBITDA of Pampa Energía is going to come from in a very significant way because of the development of Rincón de Aranda. In the case of power, we are waiting for the deregulation. There are no news there, but we are waiting for that. It's not something, as we said, that's going to be a game changer for Pampa Energía, but we expect an improvement in the power business because of the deregulation. In the short term, we should be also expecting the need of additional and increasing the capacity of the country on big projects that take a long time to develop, like three years. There is going to be an opportunity for Pampa Energía to continue growing in power generation after the deregulation.
TGS also has a lot of infrastructure projects on the pipeline to continue growing. We see upside potential in all the three segments.
Speaker 2
Great. Oh, and then obviously the more synergies between power and E&P gas.
Speaker 3
I love this.
Speaker 0
That's quite small, no?
Speaker 3
Yeah, we are.
Speaker 2
We are.
Speaker 0
Are we referring to the DES?
Speaker 2
Battery energy storage.
Speaker 0
Yes. Yeah, battery storage auction that we participated with a project of 50 MW. We are waiting to see whether we will be awarded or not. It's a very competitive project. Three times more offers than what CAMMESA was requesting. In the specific case of our project, it's even more competitive because we are competing with like six or seven projects. It's very, very competitive. We don't know whether we are going to be awarded or not.
Speaker 2
Nacho Sinicovski from Invertida Bolsa, he's asking about the hedging strategy. We already talked about that, so we're going to skip it. The second question is regarding the increase in dollar-denominated costs within the oil and gas segment, particularly lifting costs as well as selling or SG&A. Is this trend primarily driven by the FX dynamics and inflationary pressures, or it's another factor I might be overlooking?
Speaker 0
We discussed the lifting cost of Rincón de Aranda.
Speaker 2
Yeah, but he's asking if the peso share might have a dollar inflation, right?
Speaker 0
Yeah, we had a dollar inflation.
Speaker 2
We do have in Pampa Energía. It's smaller than other companies in the sense that we are not a peso cost company. That would be worse. My first question is about the renewal of the hydroelectric concessions. What is the current status of the process? Have there been any developments regarding the terms of the timeline?
Speaker 0
The second year?
Speaker 2
The hydroelectric concessions. I guess the big ones, the ones that want to be tendered, not the Enisa and Elisa.
Speaker 0
Yeah, the first, they should go, the tenders of the new hydro concessions should go first with the Comahue concessions, the ones that are basically Chocón, Piedra del Águila, Alicurá.
Speaker 2
Those ones.
Speaker 0
Those are the ones that are going to be auctioned first because they were the first that matured. After, there is going to come the auction for Nivules y Diamantes, which will impact us. We don't have any clarity on the timing of this process.
Speaker 2
Great question goes to Vemos. The syndicated loan has been granted. When are the divestments expected to begin? What is the project timeline for the projected timeline, including the start of construction and operations?
Speaker 3
The financing was already deployed around $400 million, so we already started the use of cash of the financing. The advancement of the project is scheduled at different stages. The first stage has an advancement of 25%. The second and third stages are around, I don't remember exactly, 10% and like the like. The project is, everything is going as planned.
Speaker 2
He's asking the recent operations regarding the acquisition of 10% of Hill Park, the purchase of the debt in Intersemen that was released out there. What strategic objectives are driving these transactions?
Speaker 3
I would say I think we talked about this in the previous quarter. There's no strategic objective on neither on these investments. They are financial.
Speaker 2
Investments.
Speaker 3
Yeah, financial investments. It's part of our portfolio management that we do on our cash position. There's not much to say there other than the financial transactions.
Speaker 2
There is.
Speaker 3
Strategic ones.
Speaker 2
There is really, really tiny out of % on our $1 billion, all close to $1 billion cash, right?
Speaker 3
Yes, absolutely.
Speaker 2
This question always comes out, and it's coming from Francisco Cascador from Domcap. He's asking, are you looking to change the capex or production forecast due to the weaker oil prices? Again.
Speaker 0
No, we are not.
Speaker 2
Obviously.
Speaker 0
We are not. No, definitely not. That's why we are hedging our production so we have some more or less uncertainty regarding the future of the project.
Speaker 3
If I can add, I would say that we are not surprised by current prices because a year ago, when you were looking at what the future curve of rent was forecasting, was lower prices than last year. This is not a surprise. Rincón de Aranda is a profitable project at these levels. We will, as Horacio said, reach the plateau of 20, close to 20,000 barrels. No, not a plateau. We will reach a production of 20,000 barrels of oil per day by year-end. Once we have the Central Processing Facility by the end of 2026, we will double, more than double that production. Even at these prices, we are evaluating whether to reach another step in production.
Speaker 0
Intermediate step.
Speaker 3
We haven't taken a final decision on that, but we are evaluating whether having an intermediate step next year as a temporary, with an additional temporary facility before the definitive facilities are online by year-end 2026.
Speaker 2
All right. Gustavo Faria from Bank of America, he's asking, local news mentioned that you presented a bid for Total assets in Argentina. Do you plan to bid for new brownfield projects, oil projects, or the focus on oil should rely solely on Rincón de Aranda? What were the synergies with Total assets?
Speaker 3
As you know, in all the M&A transactions, we always sign NDAs that restricted us about giving much information. I don't want to breach what we have signed. What I can say is that we are interested in increasing our acreage of oil reserves, where we would like to continue increasing production beyond where Rincón de Aranda is going to leave us on an opportunistic basis. We will continue, we will look to participate in any opportunity that may arise in the future.
Speaker 2
What total?
Speaker 3
Regarding synergies, I would say there are not any synergies between totals, between La Escalonada and Rincón de Aranda. It's another field to develop without any synergy.
Speaker 2
They're pretty far away, actually.
Speaker 3
They're far away, 70 kilometers away.
Speaker 2
70 kilometers. All right. Completely another nature of question is about the power sector liberalization. This is a very, could you give us any update in the timetable about the, yes, every quarter actually.
Speaker 3
Question for the Secretary of Energy. No, I don't have any idea on the timetable.
Speaker 2
The real one.
Speaker 3
Last year, when the issue, I don't recall the number of the resolution, but it was before November of this year, was supposed to be published, all the new rules. We are optimistic that in the next few months, we will have news about the upcoming new regulation.
Speaker 2
Yes. What's the marginal cost of operation in dollar terms, in dollar per mile, for Pampa Energía assets? What do you estimate as an uptake potential for this trigger? Upside potential, it should be for this trigger, I guess.
Speaker 3
That's a question for you if you understood it.
Speaker 2
I guess we have the deregulation is for the thermal, right? For the thermal units. It's not the market marginal system. It's for the thermal units. Obviously, the peaking or the peakers, known as the peakers, the open cycles are way off the league in a normal day, right? In a normal Argentina's normal day, it's around, what, four, if sometimes the average cost is $70 last year. I guess with more gas supply, less imports, and so on, it should be going down. Let's say in the long term for a period of time is $60. In a normal day with no extreme weather, it should be around $40, $50 marginal cost. Marginal cost, yeah, more or less. Right now, it's like $200. We are at 10 degrees Celsius, right? This is winter season. That's the opportunity line for the CCGTs.
Our CCGTs, the one that is in Loma de Lata, it's $30, $35 per megawatt hour of marginal, the average cost, variable cost. The other ones, the one that it's very close is Ginebra. A little bit out of the league, but this is still competitive. It's in La Barraga. Totally out of the league, in a normal day, should be the peakers. That's it. I can't say more.
Speaker 3
A lot of information.
Speaker 2
A lot of information to digest, yes. Matías Catarusi from ADCAP is asking, now the FID is approved for the MK2 in the floating LNG project. What are the key milestones, the next key milestones for the CESA project? Can you share more details on Pampa's expected equity and EBITDA contribution for an upstream and the project itself? From the LNG project, once it's operational, I guess first in what kind of next movements it's in the CESA project, I guess.
Speaker 0
We are in the process of building the pipeline to.
Speaker 3
The dedicated pipeline.
Speaker 0
Yeah, first, the interconnection with the San Martín pipeline.
Speaker 3
Oh, sorry.
Speaker 0
We are now in the construction of the interconnection with the San Martín project and the installation of the compression plant for the first stage. That should be ready by 2027 in order to be able to feed the first triad of the HILI, EPISEJO. The HILI is moving from Cameroon to shipyard in Singapore by mid-next year and will be.
Speaker 2
Coming to Argentina.
Speaker 0
Coming to Argentina by September 27.
Speaker 2
Brief.
Speaker 0
Building already been building the shipyard. It's doing, I mean, the project is advancing as was expected and should be online by, again, third quarter of 2028. At the same time, we should make a final decision regarding the construction of the dedicated pipeline from Neuquén to the Golfo San Matías, which is currently under consideration.
Speaker 2
Great. EBITDA and equity, it's 20%.
Speaker 0
20%.
Speaker 2
Yeah, 20%. EBITDA, until this is online, right? Yeah, obviously.
Speaker 0
EBITDA will depend very much on LNG prices. It's going to be very, very variable, and yeah, it's impossible to see at this moment.
Speaker 2
Is there any chance of shareholder distribution resuming in 2027? I guess he's talking about the buybacks because he didn't know. In 2027, once CapEx levels are normalized and the free cash flow turns positive.
Speaker 0
We are far away from 2027, but I'm sure there's going to be a lot of new things going on by 2027. It's too early to answer that.
Speaker 2
We have to keep it up because we have a lot of questions. Carol Carnero from Safra, she's asking, we saw highlights of possible new projects and developments that Pampa could participate in, like the application to the RIGI for the Central Processing Facility, the BES, the battery standard, the GPM. Can you comment on the next possible infrastructure projects that can materialize in Pampa?
Speaker 0
Yeah. If we move ahead with, we are moving ahead with the floating LNG project, we will have to supply those 6 million cubic meters per day to the vessels. We will have to increase our treatment facilities in Sierra Chata to reach those 6 million per day. That will definitely be a possibility for filing for the RIGI for that investment project, as we did for Rincón de Aranda, as a midstream project.
Speaker 2
Awesome. The second question of Carol is about it because we already talked about it. Santiago Herrera from Alaria is asking what level of debts and leverage ratios are projected for 2026 and 2027, considering the projects already approved and underway.
Speaker 3
For this year, we are actually at 1.1 times net leverage EBITDA. We are expecting to maintain around this leverage this year. Hopefully, by next year or by the end of next year, this level of leverage will decrease a little bit as Rincón de Aranda continues to generate new EBITDA to the company. I think we will reach the peak of net leverage, other things being equal, during the next quarter by year-end.
Speaker 2
The other question is about the scheduled maintenance works at the power plants that will take place in 2025 and 2026. We are going through a big one right now, the outbreak works in Sinalvaragán.
Speaker 3
Qué más?
Speaker 2
Okay. Santiago keeps asking. Usually, we do maintenance overhauls in the October area when there's a fall.
Speaker 3
Usually, either during the
Speaker 2
April?
Speaker 3
Yeah, the fall or the spring.
Speaker 2
That's right. Santiago Herrera is asking another question. What do you see the opportunity for improvement in the discount versus brand on brand? You see the discount is $1, I guess?
Speaker 3
1.5.
Speaker 2
Do you see shrinking?
Speaker 0
It's very difficult to say. It's just a market.
Speaker 2
It's not.
Speaker 0
It's not.
Speaker 2
At least when we reach the year-end target again.
Speaker 0
Yeah, yeah. It's not related to our production. It's a market discount.
Speaker 3
It's a Medanito for the Medanito quality. I don't know. It depends on the Medanito demand around the world.
Speaker 2
It improved, though. It was.
Speaker 3
From 3 to 1.5. Now it may go again back to 2.2. I don't know. We don't know.
Speaker 0
It ranges between 3 and.
Speaker 3
3 and 0. Yeah. Not 0, but 3 and 1, let's say.
Speaker 2
Last year was 5, I think.
Speaker 0
Maybe it got to 5 for a small period of time.
Speaker 2
Time, yeah. Jorge Mauro from Fundamenta, he's an investor and he's asking my questions regarding other operating income in oil and gas segment. This was $12 million versus $28 million last year. Can you comment? Can you explain why? This is because of the plant gas income. You know, the higher the prices to retail that we charge in the sales, the lower the compensation to the plant gas price that we agree. Last year was the way because the tariff increases were in midway. I think it was $2 per million BTU, while in the winter it was $4.5. The subsidy covers that gap between $4.5 and $2. Now that there's constant and frequent tariff increases to the retail, that gap shrinks.
Speaker 3
That's right.
Speaker 2
Any other preguntas, Jorge? Calm down. How much do we, how much should we expect going forward? It should be shrinking. It should be zero, right? With this government's target of no fiscal changing so abruptly because of the tariff increases. You know, there's monthly increases in the tariffs in the regulated side and also in the, in the cost of gas, it's not so frequent, but it's pretty, pretty often. We're down.
Speaker 3
Okay.
Speaker 2
Lower gas production for El Mangrullo this quarter is around 19%. Should we expect peak gas production until CESA comes online in 2028?
Speaker 3
Do we expect what again?
Speaker 2
He says, there's a lower production in El Mangrullo this quarter. Should we expect to repeak when CESA comes online in 2028? I think, I guess he's asking that.
Speaker 0
El Mangrullo will increase its production when CESA is online.
Speaker 2
Yeah.
Speaker 0
This is something that we still need to understand because obviously we're going to be feeding CESA with the most efficient.
Speaker 2
Gas.
Speaker 0
Gas we have.
Speaker 2
All right. Can you tell us what is the actual strategy of the company? Where do you see more value? I think the same.
Speaker 3
We already talked about the three segments of the company.
Speaker 2
Oil and gas, what are the plans? Do you want more exposure to oil and gas? We already talked about. Juan Ignacio López de Puente, from Puente, sends congratulations on Rincón de Aranda. He asked about the capex and the free cash flow guidance. We already talked about that. He asks about the coolant placement after this ramp-up specifically. How much are you placing locally and how much are you exploring?
Speaker 0
Okay. By the time we reach the peak product or the plateau production, we will be exporting almost 100% of the production. Until that, we are in a mixture between local market and export market because we don't have enough transportation capacity of our own. We are buying transportation capacity to third parties, and those third parties don't sell transportation capacity, but the possibility of selling crude oil at the export party price. We are selling at the export party price. Now, we don't know whether that oil is being exported or is being redirected to the local market. Economically speaking, it's as if we were exporting.
Speaker 2
Yeah.
Speaker 3
That is, I think, the main point to clarify. There is no difference today between the local price of crude vis-à-vis the export parity.
Speaker 2
Yeah, actually, this quarter, we exported most.
Speaker 3
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2
Another question is from Murilo Riccini from Bradesco. He asks, recently, we've seen news mentioning a potential slowdown in oil production growth in Argentina due to the financial equipment constraints.
Speaker 3
Financial?
Speaker 2
Equipment constraints.
Speaker 3
Financial restructuring. We don't have financial constraints.
Speaker 0
Equipment doing.
Speaker 2
Equipment doing. How does Pampa view this trend?
Speaker 0
No, we are not slowing at all.
Speaker 3
No, it is not our case. We do agree and we do see that.
Speaker 0
There might be a reduction in the second half of 2025 of drilling and completion activity. There might be some reduction.
Speaker 2
Actually, you forecast that before. You said it. It's not going to be.
Speaker 0
You said that the duplicate project was not going to be filled completely, and this is happening.
Speaker 2
That forecast was accurate.
Speaker 3
It was accurate in terms of that. That is why we went forward with Rincón de Aranda, even without having secure transportation capacity. We felt that there was going to be spare capacity after the duplicate project came online.
Speaker 2
He's asking beyond the oil prices, what do you think it could be the potential factors of this slowdown in Vaca Muerta? Not us, of course, but Vaca Muerta as a whole, why is it happening?
Speaker 0
There are some, and this is just a personal view, but there are some companies that go through a process of acquiring new blocks, and those new blocks need to be developed, and it takes time to plan and to deploy that. Maybe that's what's.
Speaker 2
Lack.
Speaker 0
Yeah. I would say making a bit low, not so fast, or slowing the increase in drilling and completion. They're still trying to digest what they already acquired.
Speaker 2
All right.
Speaker 3
The lower Brent price gives the speed of the growth. Argentina will continue growing its production of oil, probably at a lower pace because of the lower price.
Speaker 2
Edward Palma from, I don't know where, he asks, "Power generation, do you see any increase in the spot prices? Any change in your energy matrix?" I guess what he's asking, the spot prices, is the increases so far in this scheme going to be higher than the inflation and devaluation. So far?
Speaker 3
So far.Has
Speaker 1
For the last 12 months or a year and a half, there have been dollar increases because the peso prices have been increased above the devaluation of the exchange rate. Particularly this month, it happened the opposite. I don't expect any significant change going forward.
Speaker 2
Another question from Pedro del Atelier, which I don't remember where he works for, but are you interested in the stake that the government wants to sell in Transener? Is there any priority or shareholders' agreement given that you are a controlling partner, co-controlling partner?
Speaker 1
It's not an issue of shareholders' agreement. It's an issue of the law, the electricity law in Argentina that restricts us from controlling the transmission. If you are either a power generator or a distributor, you cannot fully control the transmission. You can have co-control. That is what we currently have, but we cannot go beyond that.
Speaker 2
All right. Juan Terciano Yesio from Santander, he asked straightforward, any chance that Pampa guys no manegra?
Speaker 1
No.
Speaker 2
That's it. I arranged all the questions to all 10. Gus, Horacio, Vito, would you like to comment something else that we didn't cover in this very broad Q&A session?
Speaker 1
Nothing. Nothing more.
Speaker 2
Nothing more. Expect us to our next call is in November, so I hope we have a better glimpse on Pingonera. Any questions you may have, please let us know. Raquel and I are fully available for you. Have a good time. Bye. Thank you.