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    Paramount Global (PARA)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 18, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$11.06Last close (Feb 28, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$11.38Open (Feb 29, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.32(+2.89%)
    • Paramount expects significant profitability improvements in their direct-to-consumer (D2C) business in 2024, driven by subscriber growth, ARPU growth, and content efficiencies, positioning Paramount+ to reach domestic profitability in 2025.
    • The company is proactively reducing costs through restructuring actions, including a $1 billion charge in Q1, aiming to transform their cost base and enhance efficiency, which will drive overall earnings growth and free cash flow in 2024.
    • Paramount has a robust content slate for 2024 across TV and streaming, featuring popular franchises and major sports events like the NFL, Super Bowl, UEFA, and NCAA, which is expected to boost subscriber growth and engagement, supporting revenue growth in Paramount+.
    • Paramount Global expects Paramount+ subscriber growth to be lower in 2024 than in 2023, with a potential loss of a couple of million international subscribers due to exiting some hard bundle relationships and reducing investment in local content and marketing. This slowdown may impact overall revenue growth.
    • The company is incurring a substantial $1 billion charge in Q1 2024, including approximately $200 million in restructuring charges related to workforce reductions and changes in international content strategy. This indicates significant cost pressures and challenges in their international business.
    • Advertising revenue declined 11% in Q4 2023, including a 400 basis point headwind from the decline in political advertising. Linear advertising was negatively impacted by the strikes, a decline in political spend, and unfavorable FX, suggesting continued softness in the advertising market that may affect future revenues.
    1. Paramount+ Profitability and Sub Growth
      Q: How will Paramount+ profitability and sub growth trend?
      A: Most of the year-over-year improvement in D2C profitability in 2024 will be driven by the domestic Paramount+ business. While sub growth in 2024 will be lower than in 2023, we expect very healthy Paramount+ revenue growth. Revenue is more important than subs, and we're feeling very good about the revenue growth trend on Paramount+. We anticipate domestic profitability in 2025.

    2. Programming Costs and Strikes Impact
      Q: How will programming costs evolve post-strikes?
      A: Programming cost growth for Paramount+ in 2024 will be significantly lower than the ARPU growth of over 20%. We plan to only spend about 50% of the strike savings back in 2024, helping drive healthy free cash flow growth. The $1 billion charge includes programming and restructuring costs, with about $200 million in restructuring.

    3. Licensing Revenue Outlook
      Q: Will licensing revenue return to previous levels?
      A: We expect licensing revenue to grow in 2024, as the impact from the strikes subsides. Licensing was impacted last year, so this should be a more normal year, though likely back-half loaded. Licensing helps drive both OIBDA and cash flow, contributing to our goal of delivering free cash flow growth in 2024.

    4. M&A Interest and Strategic Options
      Q: Any comments on M&A and strategic options?
      A: We're always looking for ways to create shareholder value, but we won't comment on speculation or timelines. We're focused on disciplined execution to return to significant earnings growth this year.

    5. Distribution Contracts and Bundling Strategy
      Q: Thoughts on upcoming distribution renewals and bundling?
      A: Our content offering is strong and must-have for U.S. pay-TV consumers. We have many levers in distribution deals, including linear networks and streaming products. We're big believers in bundling, which can strengthen the consumer proposition, drive subscribers, reduce churn, and lower subscriber acquisition costs. We have substantial experience with bundling in streaming, both internationally and with partners like Walmart+ in the U.S..

    6. Sports Streaming JV and Competitive Positioning
      Q: How does the sports JV affect your competitive stance?
      A: We believe an integrated sports entertainment strategy creates value, as consumers engage with both sports and entertainment content. Our sports offerings like NFL, NCAA, and UEFA are locked up into the next decade, providing a sustainable advantage. The sports JV lacks a full complement of sports, missing half the NFL and other key sports, making it less ideal for true fans.

    7. Advertising Market Trends
      Q: What are the current advertising market trends?
      A: We're seeing signs of stabilization in domestic advertising, with healthy scatter premiums. Sports remains a bright spot, and we're seeing growth in categories like consumer products, quick service restaurants, and retail. Digital ad revenue is strong, up 14% in the fourth quarter. We continue to enhance our capabilities in data and measurement to strengthen our position in the digital space.

    8. Licensing Paramount+ Originals to Third Parties
      Q: Will you license Paramount+ originals to third parties?
      A: While we recognize the value of our content and know others do too, we continue to believe that building a scaled streaming business is the right path. We see optionality in licensing but believe using our content to drive asset value creation in the form of Paramount+ is the right plan A.

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