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PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue beat while EPS missed: Revenue was $1.75B vs S&P Global consensus $1.48B, but normalized/adjusted EPS was $(0.94) vs $(0.79) expected; Adjusted EBITDA was $10.1M (S&P EBITDA consensus ~$10.4M; S&P recorded EBITDA “actual” $13.3M) *.
  • Refining headwinds and outage: Off-season cracks, lower regional indices, and the February Wyoming incident drove a Refining operating loss $(24.7)M and segment Adjusted EBITDA of $(14.3)M; retail and logistics remained resilient (Retail +$18.6M, Logistics +$29.7M Adjusted EBITDA) .
  • Operations trajectory improving: Wyoming restarted a month early (late April), Montana turnaround near completion, and management noted the combined index up ~$6/bbl early in Q2 with tighter West Coast supply-demand dynamics .
  • Capital allocation: Liquidity was $525M; Par repurchased $51M (3.6M shares) in Q1 and is operating under a refreshed $250M buyback authorization with no end date; management emphasized dynamic, opportunistic repurchases .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Early Wyoming restart: “Safely bringing the facility back to full rates approximately 1 month early compared to our initial plans” (late April vs prior end-of-May plan) .
    • Retail/Logistics resilience: Retail Adjusted EBITDA rose to $18.6M (vs $14.1M LY) with same-store fuel +0.5% and inside sales +1.8%; Logistics Adjusted EBITDA improved to $29.7M (vs $28.1M LY) .
    • Capital returns and balance sheet: $51M repurchases reduced shares by ~5% in Q1; liquidity ended at $525M, supporting opportunistic capital allocation .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Refining margin compression and outage: Refining segment swung to $(24.7)M operating loss and $(14.3)M Adjusted EBITDA (vs $81.3M LY) driven by weaker regional indices and the Wyoming incident .
    • Lower per-barrel economics: Hawaii index fell to $8.13/bbl (from $12.07), Montana to $7.07 (from $17.09), Washington to $4.15 (from $5.16); per-barrel adjusted gross margins declined year-over-year .
    • Elevated unit costs in Wyoming during downtime: Production costs rose to $34.35/bbl (vs $7.86 LY) with low throughput (6 Mbpd), reflecting outage friction costs .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.144 $1.832 $1.745
Operating Income (Loss) ($MM)$36.4 $(47.0) $(15.8)
Net Income (Loss) ($MM)$7.5 $(55.7) $(30.4)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.13 $(1.01) $(0.57)
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$51.4 $10.9 $10.1
Adjusted EPS ($)$(0.10) $(0.79) $(0.94)

Vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025):

  • Revenue: $1.48B estimate vs $1.745B actual (beat)*.
  • EPS (Normalized): $(0.79) estimate vs $(0.94) actual (miss)*.
  • EBITDA: $10.4M estimate vs S&P-recorded “actual” $13.3M; company-reported Adjusted EBITDA $10.1M (definition differences)* *.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Refining$20.1 $(22.3) $(14.3)
Logistics$33.0 $33.0 $29.7
Retail$21.0 $22.2 $18.6
Corporate & Other$(22.6) $(21.9) $(23.9)

Refining KPIs (Throughput, Mbpd)

RefineryQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Hawaii80.7 83.3 79.4
Montana57.2 51.9 51.7
Washington41.1 39.0 38.6
Wyoming19.4 13.6 6.3
Total Segment198.4 187.8 176.0

Per-Barrel Economics (Selected)

MetricQ1 2025Q1 2024
Hawaii Index ($/bbl)$8.13 $12.07
Hawaii Adj. GM ($/bbl)$8.90 $14.00
Montana Index ($/bbl)$7.07 $17.09
Montana Adj. GM ($/bbl)$5.04 $13.82
Washington Index ($/bbl)$4.15 $5.16
Washington Adj. GM ($/bbl)$2.09 $6.13
Wyoming Index ($/bbl)$20.31 $17.23
Wyoming Adj. GM ($/bbl)$19.83 $14.84

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Wyoming restart timingQ2 2025Restart mid-April at reduced rates; full by end-May (Q4 release) Returned to full operations late April, ~1 month early Raised (timing earlier)
System throughput (Mbpd)Q2 2025n/aHawaii 81–85; Washington 40–42; Wyoming 13–15; Montana 44–47; Total 178–189 New detail
Hawaii crude differential ($/bbl)Q2 2025n/a$5.00–$5.50 New detail
Capture (margin capture) rangesForwardHawaii 100–110%, Tacoma 85–95%, Montana 90–100% (turnaround slightly lower), Wyoming affected by FIFO lag Reiterated/clarifiedMaintained/updated nuance
2025 Capex + Turnarounds ($MM)FY 2025$210–$240 (Dec-2024 guide) No change; mgmt noted 2H capital requirements decline Maintained
Share repurchase authorizationOpen-endedNew $250M authorization (Feb 2025) Active; $51M repurchased in Q1 Implementing

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Hawaii SAF projectEntered construction phase (Q3) ; positioned for earnings growth (Q4) On schedule for 2H startup; low capex ~$1.50/gal; strong airline interest, logistics advantages (HI + WA network) Execution progressing; constructive outlook
West Coast/Rockies supply-demandQ3: “challenging summer refining margins” Reduced supply from planned/unplanned outages tightening West Coast and western Rockies; import parity dynamics Improving market backdrop
Outages/maintenance cadenceQ4: Wyoming incident, restart by end-May Wyoming back a month early; Montana turnaround nearing completion; no major maintenance rest of year Operations normalizing
Capital allocationQ3: $21.9M buybacks; liquidity build $51M buybacks; “excess capital position,” dynamic approach with improving outlook More aggressive repurchases
Retail resilienceQ3/Q4: strong retail results LTM Retail Adj. EBITDA >$80M for first time; SSS fuel +0.5%, inside sales +1.8% Stable-to-improving

Management Commentary

  • Strategic posture and market: “Market conditions are improving and our combined index is up by $6 per barrel so far this quarter… West Coast is benefiting from reduced supply… tightening the western portions of the Rocky Mountain region.” – CEO Will Monteleone .
  • Capital allocation: “Our balance sheet's in good shape… our outlook's improving… gives us the flexibility to be opportunistic,” driving aggressive repurchases when price/outlook align – CEO .
  • Wyoming restart: “Safely returned to normal operations in late April… a full month ahead of our previous guidance” – EVP Refining & Logistics Richard Creamer .
  • SAF economics: Competitive opex leveraging existing assets, low ~$1.50/gal capex, and advantaged logistics in HI/WA; “encouraging interest from international airlines” – CEO .
  • Cost program: “On track to achieve $30–$40M in annual savings vs 2024… consolidated operating costs down $22M YoY excluding Wyoming repair” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Wyoming: Earlier-than-planned restart credited to “efficient team effort” and swift stabilization amid cold weather; outage-related OpEx ~$6M in Q1 and ~$4M expected in Q2 .
  • Canadian heavy differentials: Tight discounts due to excess pipeline capacity; likely persists until production grows to absorb capacity – CEO .
  • West Coast imports and knock-on effects: Persistent import parity from Asia supports Tacoma and adjacent Rockies markets; benefits PARR’s periphery-of-California positioning – CEO .
  • Capture/throughput in Q2: Hawaii capture 100–110% reiterated; Tacoma trending back to 85–95%; Montana slightly below 90–100% during turnaround, mitigated by inventory draw; Wyoming impacted by FIFO lag into mid-May .
  • Flat price oil sensitivity: Net tailwinds in falling flat price (fuel burn, asphalt netbacks, hedged hydrocarbon inventory) – CFO .
  • M&A vs buybacks: Few opportunities compete with stock buybacks at present – CEO .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025): Revenue $1.48B vs actual $1.745B (beat); EPS (normalized) $(0.79) vs actual $(0.94) (miss); EBITDA $10.4M vs S&P-recorded “actual” $13.3M, while company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $10.1M (definitions vary)* *.
  • Implication: Street likely revises near-term EPS modestly lower on capture/outage dynamics, while revenue expectations may lift given stronger realized sales; medium-term models should incorporate improved Q2 indices and earlier Wyoming restart .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mixed quarter with clear path to recovery: Revenue outperformed but EPS missed on refining margins and outage; operational cadence is improving into Q2 with indices up and assets normalizing .
  • Segment diversification is cushioning volatility: Retail and Logistics delivered stable growth, underscoring a more durable earnings profile vs prior cycles .
  • Capital returns remain a central catalyst: $51M in Q1 repurchases under an open-ended $250M authorization, with management signaling continued opportunism given balance sheet strength and improving outlook .
  • Watch Q2 execution: Throughput ramp (178–189 Mbpd guide), capture normalization (HI 100–110%, WA 85–95% targeted), and FIFO lag roll-off should support sequential EBITDA/EPS improvement .
  • SAF optionality: Low-capex, in-plant Hawaii SAF project with advantaged logistics and emerging airline demand provides incremental earnings upside in 2H 2025+ .
  • Macro monitors: Canadian heavy diffs likely to stay tight; West Coast import parity supportive for Tacoma and Montana marketing positions .
  • Cost-down and capex cadence supportive of FCF: On-track $30–$40M annual savings vs 2024 and declining 2H capital requirements bolster free cash flow potential into the back half .

Footnote:

  • S&P Global consensus and “actual” figures are from S&P Global; methodology may differ from company-reported Adjusted EBITDA. Values retrieved from S&P Global.