Executive Summary

Massive beat vs consensus driven by EPA small refinery exemptions (SRE) and strong distillate markets: Adjusted EPS $5.95 vs $1.96 consensus; revenue $2.01B vs $1.76B; Adjusted EBITDA $372.5M vs $162.8M consensus. Management quantified SRE boost at ~$196M to adjusted net income and ~$203M to adjusted EBITDA * . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Core business also strong: combined throughput 197.7 Mbpd, record-low production costs of $6.13/bbl, record logistics EBITDA, and steady retail performance; CEO highlighted “exceptional” results with core adjusted EBITDA ~$170M and core adjusted EPS ~$2.10 excluding SRE .
Cash flow and balance sheet improved: CFO highlighted $219M CFO (with working capital outflow), liquidity up ~14% to $735M; $16.4M buybacks; $100M cash proceeds in Oct from Hawaii Renewables JV closing .
Q4 setup constructive: combined refining index averaged $15.55/bbl in October (up vs Q3), with Q4 throughput guided to 184–193 kbpd; Hawaii crude differential expected $5.50–$6/bbl; margin capture normalization expected in Washington as jet/diesel spread compresses .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Refining execution and indices: System throughput 197.7 Mbpd; record-low production costs $6.13/bbl; Hawaii, Montana, Washington indices materially higher YoY; CEO: “organization fired on all cylinders” .
- Record logistics and solid retail: Logistics Adjusted EBITDA a record $37.3M; Retail Adjusted EBITDA $21.9M with +1.8% same-store fuel and +0.9% inside sales .
- SRE tailwind and RIN monetization: SREs granted for 2019–2024 lifted adjusted net income by $195.9M and adjusted EBITDA by $202.6M; CFO expects WC reversal as excess RINs are monetized .
What Went Wrong
- Mix/capture in Washington: Q3 capture impacted by unusually wide jet-to-diesel spread; management estimated ~15% capture hit; expect normalization in Q4 .
- YoY revenue down: GAAP revenue declined to $2.013B from $2.144B YoY despite margin strength; demonstrates volume/mix and crack dynamics vs prior year .
- Higher production costs in Wyoming and Washington YoY: Wyoming $8.11/bbl vs $7.00; Washington $4.31/bbl vs $3.50; partially offset by strong margins/SRE .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($)	$2,143,933,000	$1,893,438,000	$2,012,936,000
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.13	$1.17	$5.16
Adjusted EPS ($)	$(0.10)	$1.54	$5.95
GAAP Net Income ($)	$7,486,000	$59,460,000	$262,631,000
Adjusted EBITDA ($)	$51,428,000	$138,000,000	$372,481,000
Net Income Margin (%)	0.35%	3.14%	13.05%

Notes: Q3’25 Adj EPS/EBITDA include SRE impacts of ~$196M and ~$203M, respectively; management cited core (ex-SRE) Adj EBITDA ~$170M and Adj EPS ~$2.10 .

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Segment	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Refining	$20,139,000	$337,592,000
Logistics	$32,950,000	$37,311,000
Retail	$20,954,000	$21,928,000
Corporate & Other	$(22,615,000)	$(24,350,000)

Key Operating KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Total Refining Throughput (Mbpd)	198.4	197.7
Adj GM per bbl ($/bbl)	$7.79	$24.76 (incl. SRE $11.14/bbl)
Production Costs ($/bbl)	$6.62	$6.13
Combined Index ($/bbl, avg)	$8.89	$14.72

Estimates vs Actuals (Q3 2025)

Metric	Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean	1.9646*
Primary EPS Actual	5.95
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)	1,760,844,120*
Revenue Actual ($)	2,012,936,000
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($)	162,823,570*
Adjusted EBITDA Actual ($)	372,481,000
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)	46.625*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
System Throughput (kbpd)	Q4 2025	n/a	184–193 kbpd	New
Hawaii Throughput (kbpd)	Q4 2025	n/a	84–87	New
Washington Throughput (kbpd)	Q4 2025	n/a	35–37 (lower due to crude unit inefficiencies; fix in Q1’26 outage)	New
Wyoming Throughput (kbpd)	Q4 2025	n/a	15–16	New
Montana Throughput (kbpd)	Q4 2025	n/a	50–53 (routine coker maintenance)	New
Hawaii Crude Differential ($/bbl)	Q4 2025	n/a	$5.50–$6.00	New
Combined Refining Index ($/bbl)	Oct 2025	n/a	$15.55 (up vs Q3)	New
Full-year Capex+Turnaround ($)	FY 2025	~$240M (upper end)	Trending to upper end of $240M	Maintained
Working Capital/RINs	Next few quarters	n/a	Expect WC reversal as excess RINs monetized	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Market outlook & margins	Asia mid-cycle/+; West Coast tight; combined index ~$13/bbl entering Q3	October combined index $15.55/bbl; strong distillate cracks; optimistic outlook	Improving
SRE / RINs	Petitioning; retroactive SREs would be cash upside; balanced RIN position	SREs granted 2019–2024; +$196M ANI, +$203M Adj EBITDA; monetize excess RINs, reverse WC	Realized upside; cash tailwind ahead
Capture dynamics	Hawaii ~110–120% sustained; WA capture below range due to mix in Q2	WA capture hit by jet/diesel spread; expected to normalize in Q4; Hawaii ~110% guidance	Normalization expected
SAF/renewables strategy	SAF JV announced; 36.5% partner equity for $100M; startup 2H’25; contributions ramp in 2026	JV closed in Oct; $100M proceeds; pretreatment unit started; mechanical completion targeted late Q4	Executing; de-risked financing
Capital allocation	Aggressive buybacks ($51M Q1; $28M Q2); liquidity $525–$647M	$16.4M buybacks Q3; liquidity $735M; opportunistic repurchases + growth projects	Continued flexibility

Management Commentary

“Record combined retail and logistics contribution and strong refining operations led to exceptional third quarter financial results for the core business… Results were further bolstered by the small refinery exemption gain of approximately $200 million.” – CEO Will Monteleone .
“Core financial results of $170 million and $2.10 in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, respectively.” – CEO Will Monteleone (ex-SRE) .
“Third quarter combined throughput was a strong 198,000 barrels per day… We also achieved a new record low in refining production costs at $6.13 per barrel.” – EVP Refining & Logistics Richard Creamer .
“We expect the working capital impact to reverse over the next few quarters as we monetize our excess RIN position.” – CFO Shawn Flores .

Q&A Highlights

Washington capture headwind: Unusually wide jet-to-diesel spreads (~$20/bbl) cut capture by ~15%; spreads have normalized to ~$4–$5 discount, supporting Q4 capture .
Throughput guidance: Q4 system 184–193 kbpd; Hawaii 84–87, Washington 35–37 (to be addressed in Q1’26 outage), Wyoming 15–16, Montana 50–53 (seasonal/coker work) .
Cash priorities: With improving balance sheet and JV proceeds, management will pursue growth projects (notably Montana debottlenecking/logistics) while remaining opportunistic on buybacks; “can really do all of the above” .
RINs/SRE approach: Will avail opportunities consistent with law/DOE scoring; commercial RIN strategy not disclosed; SREs seen as consistent with law but acknowledge policy tail risks .
Outlook: Distillate-oriented system well-positioned amid tight inventories, geopolitical disruptions; Singapore gasoil cracks strong; favorable October index .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted EPS $5.95 vs $1.96 consensus; revenue $2.013B vs $1.761B; Adjusted EBITDA $372.5M vs $162.8M. The beat was primarily driven by ~$200M SRE benefit, plus strong distillate cracks and record-low production costs *.
Implications: Street models likely to lift near-term EBITDA/EPS (ex-SRE) on stronger indices/capture and improved Q4 setup, while normalizing out the one-time SRE impact; watch for upward revisions to logistics and Hawaii capture assumptions . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

One-time windfall, strong core: SREs created a step-up in Q3 earnings, but core ex-SRE metrics (throughput, costs, capture) also improved—supportive for sustained cash generation .
Positive Q4 momentum: October index above Q3, capture normalizing in Washington, and guided throughput supports sequential resilience despite seasonal gasoline/asphalt softness .
Cash catalysts: JV $100M closed; RIN monetization should reverse Q3 WC outflows; NOLs reduce cash taxes—liquidity already up to $735M .
Distillate leverage: System’s high distillate yield benefits from tight global balances and geopolitically influenced cracks; Hawaii and Rockies remain advantaged .
Capital allocation: Management remains opportunistic on buybacks while funding high-return debottlenecking and logistics projects, especially in Montana .
Watch list: Q1’26 Washington outage (crude unit efficiency fix), Hawaii SAF mechanical completion/startup ramp, and policy developments around SRE/RFS and credits .
Risk balancing: Non-recurring SRE tailwind and mix/capture volatility remain factors; focus on ex-SRE run-rate EBITDA (~$170M in Q3) to gauge core trajectory .

Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Citations:

Q3 2025 8-K results/press release:
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared & Q&A):
Prior quarters call transcripts: Q2 2025 ; Q1 2025
Q3 2025 financial statements tables in release:
JV closing 8-K: –

PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary