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PI

PAVmed Inc. (PAVM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.74), with GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $(13.3) million; total operating expenses were $4.7 million, and cash was $4.0 million at quarter-end .
  • Lucid Diagnostics processed 2,756 EsoGuard tests and recognized $1.2 million in revenue, with a MolDX multi-jurisdictional CAC meeting scheduled for September 4—a key catalyst toward a Medicare LCD draft .
  • Sequentially, PAVmed revenue was $0.006 million (ex-Lucid) vs. $0.008 million in Q1 and $0.010 million in Q4; GAAP EPS moved from $0.34 (Q1) and $0.12 (Q4) to $(0.74) (Q2) as mark-to-market and other items normalized .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q2 Primary EPS was a beat (actual -$0.05* vs. -$0.25*), while revenue was a miss ($6k* vs. $10k*). The upcoming Medicare CAC and continued commercial traction (Highmark policy, health-system partnerships) are near-term stock catalysts *.
  • Veris advanced commercialization via a strategic partnership with OSUCCC–James (EHR integration underway) and completed $2.5 million financing; PAVmed signed an LOI to license endoscopic imaging tech from Duke—expanding adjacencies .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Lucid sustained target test volumes (2,756) and recognized $1.2 million revenue; management highlighted focus on Medicare patients and cash-pay/contracted channels: “Revenue was $1,200,000…40% increase…matches our previous quarterly high” .
    • Reimbursement momentum: multi-jurisdictional CAC set for Sept 4 and positive commercial coverage (Highmark) with active payer dialogues; “We really are confident that we are gonna get Medicare coverage, not a matter of if but when” .
    • Strategic progress: Veris OSUCCC–James partnership moving to full commercial integration; $2.5 million financing secured; PAVmed LOI with Duke for endoscopic imaging technology .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Reported GAAP results: Q2 GAAP diluted EPS $(0.74) and net loss attributable $(13.3) million; revenue remains de minimis at the parent level due to Lucid deconsolidation and revenue recognition constraints .
    • Revenue recognition headwinds persist (variable consideration, out-of-network claims): only ~17% of invoiced amounts recognized; allowable out-of-network average ~$17.86/test; 49% of adjudicated claims deemed non-covered .
    • Timing uncertainty: While CAC is a major step, Medicare LCD finalization still requires draft → 45-day comment → final; management refrained from pinning exact dates, implying potential delays vs. investor expectations .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.010 $0.008 $0.006
GAAP Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Common ($USD Millions)$1.346 $17.695 $(13.308)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.12 $0.34 $(0.74)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$5.198 $5.454 $4.721
Cash And Equivalents ($USD Millions)$1.2 $2.7 $4.0

KPIs (Subsidiaries and Commercial Progress):

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Lucid EsoGuard Tests Processed (Units)4,042 3,034 2,756
Lucid EsoGuard Revenue Recognized ($USD Millions)$1.2 $0.8 $1.2
Invoiced Amounts ($USD Millions, Lucid)——~$6.9
Adjudication Rate (% of Q2 claims, Lucid)——65%
Allowable per Test ($USD, out-of-network, Lucid)——~$17.86

Versus Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Estimate ($USD Thousands)10,000*10,000*
Revenue Actual ($USD Thousands)8,000*6,000*
Primary EPS Estimate ($USD)-0.29*-0.25*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)-0.07*-0.05*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Medicare LCD (EsoGuard)Coverage pathwayAwaiting MolDX review; comprehensive data package submitted Multi-jurisdictional CAC on Sept 4; expect draft LCD after CAC, then 45-day comment, final potentially ~3+ months post-comment; 12‑month lookback billing upon final Advanced (process milestones defined)
Cash Runway2025–2026“Runway well into 2026” post financings Reiterated ability to fund through key milestones; focus on Medicare-targeted commercialization; optionality via ATM noted Maintained
Veris CommercializationOSUCCC–JamesPilot concluded; long-term partnership imminent Strategic partnership executed; EHR integration in process; registry launching; trial post-FDA clearance; target ≥1,000 patients 1st year and 300 implants post-clearance Raised (from pilot to commercial)
Endoscopic Imaging (Duke LOI)New initiativeN/ALOI to license a/LCI+OCT tech to detect/treat esophageal dysplasia; supports downstream workflow post non-endoscopic screening New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Medicare LCD (MolDX)Draft/non-coverage history; clinical utility data strengthened (NCCN update) “Imminent” coverage belief; full package submitted; awaiting response CAC scheduled; draft expected relatively soon; 45-day comment; final follows; high confidence Advancing toward decision
Commercial CoverageHighmark BCBS policy; RI biomarker payment Starting full-package payer engagements incl. HEOR Active weekly MD-to-MD discussions; pipeline beyond Highmark; some plans may not wait for Medicare Increasing traction
Sales ChannelsConcierge medicine and employer contracts ramping Cash-pay concierge and employer gaining traction; expected 2H revenue impact Sustaining cash-pay and contracted revenue; targeting Medicare patient mix post-coverage Scaling pragmatically
Veris PlatformFinancing to resume implantable monitor; OSU pilot extended Reengaged FDA; strategic/commercial agreement near; 1,000 patients/300 implants targets Partnership executed; EHR integration; registry launch and trial plan Commercial transition
Capacity/COGS——Lab and manufacturing capacity 5×+ scalable with minimal capex; ~90% contribution margin per test at Medicare rate Ready to scale
Nasdaq ComplianceRegained minimum bid compliance —180-day extension to regain minimum bid price (to Jan 19, 2026) Risk monitored

Management Commentary

  • “We really are confident that we are gonna get Medicare coverage—not a matter of if but when. And this CAC meeting is sort of an indicator that we’re in the late stages” .
  • “EtherCAT [EsoGuard] test volume for the second quarter was 2,756…Revenue was $1,200,000…40% increase…matches our previous quarterly high” .
  • On payer dynamics: “It’s helpful…we have two physicians on our side talking to physicians…conversations have been very positive…some regional plans won’t wait for Medicare” .
  • On economics: “Next patient drives a ~90% contribution margin…under $200 to process…fixed lab cost ~$1.2 million/quarter” .
  • On scale: “Laboratory has plenty of excess capacity…fivefold capacity…manufacturing lines can scale…no significant capital investment needed” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Medicare CAC and LCD timeline: CAC → draft LCD → 45-day comment/public meeting → final; management expects relatively quick draft LCD following CAC; 12‑month lookback billing on Medicare tests once final .
  • Targeting Medicare patients: Historically ~10–15% of test volume; plans to pivot resources (digital targeting, high-Medicare geographies) post-coverage without material OpEx increases .
  • Revenue recognition mechanics: Variable consideration under ASC 606; only ~17% of ~$6.9 million invoiced recognized in Q2; 65% adjudicated, ~49% non-covered; allowable avg ~$17.86/test out-of-network .
  • Commercial coverage pipeline: Highmark precedent aids discussions; some regional/BCBS plans likely to move pre-Medicare; broader LBMs may await Medicare .
  • Capacity and margin: Ample lab/manufacturing capacity; high unit economics; scaling sales/marketing tied to reimbursement milestones .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 comparison: Primary EPS actual -$0.05* vs. consensus -$0.25* (beat); revenue actual $6k* vs. consensus $10k* (miss). Q1 2025 Primary EPS actual -$0.07* vs. -$0.29*; revenue $8k* vs. $10k* [GetEstimates]*.
  • Implications: EPS likely benefits from non-cash/mark-to-market items at the parent, while revenue recognition remains constrained until coverage expands; consensus may need to reflect timing of LCD and commercial conversion rates .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The Sept 4 multi-jurisdictional CAC is a pivotal catalyst; management sees it as the “late stages” toward a Medicare LCD draft, unlocking revenue recognition (including 12‑month lookback) and accelerating volumes post-final .
  • Lucid’s operational momentum continues (2,756 tests; $1.2m recognized), with payer dialogues and Highmark policy providing near-term commercialization bridges even ahead of Medicare .
  • Parent-level GAAP results are currently dominated by non-operating items and revenue recognition constraints; expect improved visibility once coverage policies mature and variable consideration headwinds abate .
  • Veris is transitioning to commercial deployment at OSUCCC–James with EHR integration and registry; financing de-risks development toward 2026 clearance and provides a second growth vector .
  • New Duke LOI extends PAVmed into endoscopic imaging for dysplasia—complementary to non-endoscopic screening—creating downstream synergy and optionality with potential strategics .
  • Capacity and unit economics are favorable; management cites 5×+ lab capacity and ~90% contribution margin at Medicare rates, implying scalable profitability as reimbursement solidifies .
  • Risk monitor: Nasdaq minimum bid price extension to Jan 19, 2026 underscores urgency to execute reimbursement and commercial milestones to support the equity story .