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PE

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Reported GAAP net income of $171.7M ($1.45 diluted EPS) driven by a $250M insurance recovery and a $94M gain on terminal asset sale; underlying adjusted fully-converted EPS was a loss of $(0.52), showing sequential improvement versus Q2 and a sizable YoY improvement .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus on normalized EPS, revenue, and EBITDA; Q3 2025 EPS of $(0.52) vs $(0.75), revenue $7.65B vs $7.47B, and EBITDA $129M vs $102M*; the market narrative should focus on the improving capture rates late in the quarter and into Q4 as crude differentials widen. Bold: EPS beat, Revenue beat, EBITDA beat (S&P Global)
  • Guidance maintained for FY2025 capex ($750–$775M) and Q4 throughput ranges were provided (total 860–910kbpd), while RBI savings targets were raised to >$230M run-rate by YE25 (from >$200M previously), supportive of operating efficiency and reliability .
  • Key catalysts: Martinez full restart targeted by year-end with permits in place and sequential startup in December, stronger product cracks, and widening light-heavy differentials; dividend maintained at $0.275 per share .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Martinez restart plan remains on schedule for December; management: “We have all our permits… commence startup during the month of December and be up and running in December” .
  • Efficiency initiatives gaining traction: RBI on track, with ~$210M run-rate savings implemented YTD and >$230M targeted by YE25; trajectory to >$350M by YE26 .
  • Market backdrop improved late in Q3 and into Q4: “significant positive step” in September; strong product cracks and widening crude differentials expected to enhance capture rates .

What Went Wrong

  • Core operations still pressured: adjusted fully-converted EPS of $(0.52) and EBITDA excluding special items of $136M reflect ongoing headwinds despite sequential improvements .
  • West Coast margin pressure and higher costs: gross margin per barrel negative at $(7.78) and refining OpEx $12.81/bbl due to Martinez/Torrance dynamics; throughput and yields impacted .
  • Renewable diesel JV (SBR) underperformed and contributed equity loss ($19.7M); production averaged ~15,400 bpd, with tariffs and policy uncertainty adding volatility .

Financial Results

Headline GAAP vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$8.38 $7.48 $7.65
Diluted EPS ($)$(2.49) $(0.05) $1.45

Adjusted and Operating Metrics

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Adjusted fully-converted EPS ($)$(1.50) $(1.03) $(0.52)
Income from operations excl. special items ($USD Millions)$(231.5) $(110.0) $(27.1)
EBITDA excl. special items ($USD Millions)$(69.2) $51.8 $136.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(60.1) $61.8 $144.4

Margins and Cost per Barrel

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Consolidated gross margin per barrel ($/bbl)$(3.35) $(0.76) $0.49
Gross refining margin per barrel, excl. special items ($/bbl)$6.79 $8.38 $9.00
Refining operating expense per barrel ($/bbl)$7.22 $7.96 $7.35

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentRevenue Q3 2024 ($MM)Revenue Q3 2025 ($MM)Income from Ops Q3 2024 ($MM)Income from Ops Q3 2025 ($MM)
Refining$8,372.8 $7,641.6 $(341.2) $232.3
Logistics$94.6 $97.5 $51.3 $149.2
Corporate$— $— $(96.4) $(95.6)
Eliminations$(85.1) $(88.0) ——
Consolidated$8,382.3 $7,651.1 $(386.3) $285.9

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Production (kbpd)945.4 845.8 876.2
Throughput (kbpd)935.6 839.1 871.0
Effective RIN basket price ($/unit)$3.89 $6.14 $6.38
Total gross refining margin ($MM)$429.6 $640.1 $721.1

Estimates vs Actual (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensus Q3 2025Actual Q3 2025
Primary EPS (normalized)$(0.75)*$(0.52)*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$7.47*$7.65*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$102.0*$129.4*

Values retrieved from S&P Global

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RBI run-rate savingsYE 2025>$200M (cost savings) >$230M (operating, capital, turnaround, corporate) Raised
RBI run-rate savingsYE 2026>$350M >$350M Maintained
CapexFY 2025$750–$775M (excl. Martinez) $750–$775M (excl. Martinez) Maintained
Throughput ranges (East Coast)Q4 2025—320–340kbpd New
Throughput ranges (Mid-continent)Q4 2025—140–150kbpd New
Throughput ranges (Gulf Coast)Q4 2025—170–180kbpd New
Throughput ranges (West Coast)Q4 2025—230–240kbpd New
Throughput ranges (Total)Q4 2025—860–910kbpd New
SBR Renewable diesel productionQ4 2025—16–18kbpd New
Dividend per shareQ3/Q4 timing$0.275 (Q2) $0.275 declared for Nov 26, 2025 Maintained
Interest expenseFY 2025$165–$185M Not updated in Q3 releaseNo update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Martinez restartPartial ops restored; initial insurance installment ($250M net); restart targeted Q4 2025 Permits in place; deliberate sequential restart in December; full ops by year-end Improving; timeline confidence strengthened
Crude diffs & captureNarrow light-heavy diffs pressured capture Diffs widening late Q3; expect continued improvement; buying heavier barrels not seen in years Improving
RBI savings>$200M YE25 target (program launch, procurement, turnarounds) ~$210M implemented YTD; >$230M YE25; >$350M YE26; continuous improvement Improving, scope expanded
West Coast market dynamicsHeadwinds from Martinez downtime; higher OpEx All-bid market after competitor shutdown; import needs; local crude implications; PBF well positioned Tight market supports margins
Renewable diesel (SBR)Ramp with catalyst changes; Q3 guidance 16–18kbpd 15.4kbpd; market challenged due to tariffs/policy; risk of higher RINs Mixed; policy headwinds

Management Commentary

  • “We are on schedule for a December restart… have all our permits… commence startup during the month of December and be up and running in December” – Matt Lucey, CEO .
  • “There was a shift in September… product cracks are quite strong, and crude differentials continue to widen” – Matt Lucey, CEO .
  • “We’re close to about $210 million of implemented savings on a run-rate basis… on track to meet our previously announced goal to implement $230 million by year-end 2025” – Mike Bukowski, Head of Refining .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA of $144.4 million… incremental OpEx at Martinez of $14.6 million… second unallocated insurance payment agreed at end of Q3” – Joe Marino, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Martinez restart confidence: Management reiterated permitting and safety-first approach; sequential startup in December targeted for full-year-end ops .
  • Heavy-light differentials: Management expects ongoing widening, with heavier discounted barrels re-entering the system, improving capture rates across regions .
  • West Coast supply and pipeline discussion: Imports/pipes likely high-cost and slow; PBF’s in-state position is advantaged amidst capacity closures; all-bid market noted .
  • Renewable diesel landscape: Policy/tariff shifts weigh on economics; risk of higher RINs as supply falls and RVO persists; PBF views its asset as top quartile .
  • Balance sheet normalization: Repair costs largely covered by insurance; downtime impacts to be offset by BI insurance over time; exact pro forma net debt impact TBD .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 normalized EPS, revenue, and EBITDA all beat consensus: $(0.52) vs $(0.75), $7.65B vs $7.47B, $129M vs $102M*. Bold: EPS beat, Revenue beat, EBITDA beat.
  • The sequential improvement in capture and efficiency plus Q4 throughput guidance and Martinez restart should support upward revisions to normalized EPS/EBITDA, while West Coast OpEx normalization post-restart is a key lever (S&P Global).

Values retrieved from S&P Global

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Martinez full restart by year-end is the pivotal near-term catalyst; operational execution and safety are central, with permits secured .
  • Efficiency momentum: RBI savings lifted to >$230M YE25, offering durable OpEx and capex reductions and underpinning margin resilience into 2026 .
  • Macro tailwinds: Strong cracks and widening heavy-light diffs should enhance Q4 capture, particularly at complex refineries .
  • SBR and RINs: RD economics remain challenged; watch for policy developments and potential higher RINs affecting both RD and compliance costs .
  • West Coast dynamics: Tight PADD 5 product market and capacity closures favor in-state refiners; import reliance supports margins, but logistics and tariffs matter .
  • Capital discipline: Capex maintained; dividend sustained at $0.275; management prioritizes deleveraging and balance sheet strength (insurance proceeds supportive) .
  • Estimate revisions: Expect positive adjustments to normalized EPS/EBITDA as capture rises and Martinez returns; monitor OpEx per barrel normalization and throughput ramp (S&P Global).