PotlatchDeltic - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Dee, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic first quarter 2024 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides, and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to the presentation slides and on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com. I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our first quarter results and our outlook.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Well, thank you, Wayne, and good morning, everyone. Looking at our first quarter results, we reported total adjusted EBITDA of $30 million after the market closed yesterday. I'm pleased with the solid operational performance delivered by our team despite market and weather-related challenges during the quarter. Our Timberland segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $35 million in the first quarter. We harvested 1.9 million tons, achieving the upper range of our Q1 harvest plan. Our Wood Products segment's adjusted EBITDA was break even in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $6 million in the fourth quarter. The year kicked off to a challenging start for lumber markets as severe weather across the country restricted construction activity in January. Despite this difficult start to the typical inventory building season, lumber prices modestly trended upward throughout the first quarter, driving the improvement in our Wood Products results.

As for our elevated 2024 capital plan, we are approaching the final phases of our $131 million Waldo, Arkansas sawmill modernization and expansion project. Vertical construction and equipment installation is well underway, with project completion continuing to remain on track and within budget for startup early in the third quarter. Following completion of the project, we anticipate a ramp-up in production through Q4 and into next year. Based on other brownfield additions in the industry we have seen, we expect it will take 6-12 months to reach the mill's new capacity of 275 million board feet per year. As a reminder, the project will increase the mill's annual capacity by 85 million board feet. It will improve recovery by 6% and reduce cash processing costs by about 30%.

Once the ramp-up phase is completed, we expect the mill to generate approximately $25 million of incremental EBITDA annually. Our Real Estate segment generated $6 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. On the development side of the business, we sold 24 residential lots at an average price of about $120,000 per lot in our Chenal Valley master plan community in Little Rock, Arkansas. On the rural side of our real estate business, we completed the sale of 1,800 acres at nearly $3,100 an acre. It's important to note that the volume of transactions in rural real estate can fluctuate significantly from quarter-to-quarter. Although we experienced a subdued level of rural real estate transactions in this period, we expect the sales pace to accelerate as we move through the second quarter.

The interest in our rural land remains quite high. The highlight of our anticipated rural real estate activity in the upcoming second quarter includes the previously announced deal to sell 34,000 acres of Southern plantation timberlands, which have an average age of just under four years, for a total of $58 million or $1,700 per acre. Now let me transition to our emerging natural climate solutions business. Our collaboration with solar developers continues to grow, as evidenced by the optioning of an additional solar deal in the first quarter. Currently, our option contracts for solar land sales and leases are valued at nearly $200 million on a net present value basis, representing roughly 1% of our total timberland ownership. Additionally, we are in the process of finalizing negotiations on several more lease options.

At the end of 2024, we expect to have approximately 30,000 acres of solar land sale and lease options under contract, valued at over $300 million on a net present value basis. Our Southern Timberland Carbon Credit Initiative continues to move forward. We're anticipating generating in excess of 500,000 carbon credits in the first year, with an estimated 100,000 credits each year for at least a decade thereafter. The extensive scope and high-quality nature of these credits necessitates a thorough verification process, which is lengthy and complex. We have initiated preliminary marketing activities and are targeting placement and sale of credits in the market towards the end of the year. Nonetheless, the completion of this project timeline is heavily dependent on various third parties involved in the accreditation process.

We've also identified potentially valuable prospects in carbon capture and storage, as well as bioenergy. These opportunities, along with other natural climate solutions, are currently under discussion with various other parties. Although they are not imminent, we are optimistic as to their potential value. Furthermore, we continue to believe that all of these natural climate solutions opportunities will boost the demand for our rural land, likely driving timberland values higher. Moving to capital allocation, we continue to be committed to our disciplined and opportunistic approach, and we constantly evaluate all our capital allocation opportunities to grow shareholder value over time. Timberland M&A was our main priority during the quarter. As we previously announced, in Q1, we acquired 16,000 acres of high-quality, mature timberlands in Arkansas through a privately negotiated one-on-one transaction for $31 million, or about $1,900 per acre.

Also, the acquired timberland has strong rural real estate potential, including solar opportunities. We employ stringent criteria when evaluating timberland M&A, and for this particular transaction, we expect to achieve an approximate 8% real IRR, which is well above our cost of capital. We did not purchase any shares in the first quarter. However, share repurchases remain an important component of our capital allocation strategy, especially when we are trading well below our estimated NAV. We consistently assess and prioritize our capital allocation options, taking into consideration the economic backdrop. We have $125 million remaining on our $200 million share repurchase authorization. Turning our attention to the U.S. housing market, existing home inventories for sale continue to persistently hover at historically low levels. The scarcity in this segment of the market poses challenges in meeting housing demand.

However, new housing has emerged with an affordability advantage over existing housing. Large home builders are enticing buyers with rate buy-down incentives, making new home construction more financially attractive, especially given today's mortgage rate environment. Consequently, new single-family residential construction demonstrated resilience by maintaining over 1 million starts for the fifth consecutive month, providing some level of stability to the market. In addition, home builder confidence has been steady and in positive territory, in spite of the recent uptick in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, new residential construction continues to underperform as challenges in the economy persist, driven by the uncertainty of inflation and the direction of interest rates. In particular, the multifamily segment of new residential housing has been under pressure, in large part due to excessive financing costs. The timing and pace of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve add to the level of uncertainty.

However, we anticipate that once rates begin to decline, possibly later this year, it will likely spur pent-up housing demand, ultimately benefiting lumber markets. Longer term, we retain a positive outlook on housing fundamentals. An underlying shortage of housing stock, which some pundits estimate at 4 million units, and favorable demographic trends will provide tailwinds to the housing market. We continue to expect that U.S. housing starts will return to levels above the long-term average of 1.5 million units per year once mortgage rates decline and homes become more affordable. Turning to the repair and remodel segment, demand in this market appears to have moderated somewhat, with some weakness in the DIY segment. That said, our home center business remains solid.

The overall resilience in the repair and remodel market is underpinned by several factors, including strong consumer balance sheets, record home equity levels across the U.S., steady labor markets, and existing homeowners staying in their homes due to the prevailing higher interest rate environment. Looking ahead, long-term trends indicate that the fundamentals of the repair and remodel market will be favorable. This optimism is bolstered by an aging housing stock, leading to increased repair activity, as well as elevated home equity levels and the ongoing prevalence towards remote work. In closing, we remain committed to enhancing operational and financial performance across all of our business segments.

As part of this commitment, we are diligently focused on completing our strategic modernization and expansion project at the Waldo sawmill on schedule and within budget. Also, returning capital to our shareholders remains a core tenet of this strategy. With our investment-grade balance sheet and ample liquidity, we possess the flexibility and the solid foundation to continue creating long-term shareholder value. I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our first quarter results and our outlook.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Thank you, Eric. Starting with page four of the slides, adjusted EBITDA was $30 million in the first quarter, compared to $41 million in the fourth quarter. The sequential quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDA resulted from fewer rural real estate sales, partially offset by improved wood product segment results stemming from higher average lumber prices. I will now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our first quarter results. Information for our timberland segment is displayed on slides five through seven. The segment's adjusted EBITDA increased from $33 million in the fourth quarter to $35 million in the first quarter. EBITDA benefited from improved per-unit log and haul costs and seasonally lower forest management costs, which more than offset a decline in Idaho sawlog prices.

Our sawlog harvest volume in Idaho was 327,000 tons in the first quarter, which is consistent with our fourth quarter harvest volume. Harvest volumes in the first quarter were adversely impacted by mild winter weather, limiting available haul days. Our Idaho sawlog prices were 5% lower on a per-ton basis in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. The price decline is primarily a result of the effect of seasonally heavier logs. Turning to the South, we harvested 1.6 million tons in the first quarter. This level of activity slightly exceeded our Q1 planned harvest volume as we benefited from favorable logging conditions. Additionally, demand for sawlogs and pulpwood in the South generally remained stable throughout the quarter. Our Southern sawlog prices were 3% lower in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

The decline was primarily driven by a seasonally lower mix of hardwood sawlogs and higher mix of smaller diameter softwood sawlogs. Moving to Wood Products on slides eight and nine, Adjusted EBITDA increased from a loss of $6 million in the fourth quarter to breakeven in the first quarter. Higher average lumber prices and lower per-unit cash processing costs drove the improvement. Our average lumber price realizations increased $15 per thousand board feet, or approximately 4% in the quarter. This price increase is comparable to the Random Lengths framing lumber composite on a percentage basis. Our lumber prices increased each month during the quarter. Specifically, our average lumber price realizations per thousand board feet were $405 in January, $427 in February, and $443 in March.

Lumber shipments in Q1 totaled 271 million board feet, compared to 285 million board feet in Q4 of last year. The sequentially lower shipment volume in Q1 was influenced by seasonal factors, but nonetheless, marks the company's second-highest Q1 shipment volume on record. Shifting to Real Estate on slides 10 and 11, the segment's adjusted EBITDA was $6 million in the first quarter, compared to $22 million in the fourth quarter. EBITDA generated by our rural real estate business decreased due to the sale of fewer acres. EBITDA generated by our Chenal Valley Master Plan Community declined primarily due to the lack of commercial land sales this quarter. Commercial sales tend to be lumpy, but our pipeline of potential future land sale opportunities continues to remain attractive.

We closed on the sale of 24 residential lots in the first quarter at a 12% higher average price than in the fourth quarter, due to a different mix of lot price points. Turning to capital structure, which is summarized on slide 12, our total liquidity was $479 million. This amount includes $180 million of cash on our balance sheet, as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. This level of liquidity is after utilizing cash on hand to acquire 16,000 acres of bolt-on timberlands in Arkansas for $31 million, as Eric previously discussed. We have $176 million of debt that is scheduled to mature in October and November of this year. Our decision to pay off a portion or refinance all this debt will occur later this year.

We still have $200 million of notional forward swaps valued at $36 million on our balance sheet, which we can deploy to issue debt at below-market rates. Capital expenditures were $14 million in the first quarter. That amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement. For the full year, we continue to expect CapEx spend of $100 million-$110 million, excluding potential timberland acquisitions. That estimate includes approximately $44 million for the final installments on the Waldo, Arkansas, sawmill modernization expansion project. I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on slide 13. Harvest volumes in the North are planned to be seasonally lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter due to spring breakup.

We expect Northern sawlog prices to increase approximately 6% in the second quarter due to resetting the price of index volume to reflect improved Q1 lumber prices and seasonally lighter logs. In the South, we plan to harvest approximately 1.4 million tons in the second quarter. We expect our Southern sawlog prices to decrease modestly, primarily due to seasonally smaller sawlogs in the mix. We plan to ship 275 million-285 million board feet of lumber in the second quarter. Our average lumber price thus far in the second quarter is flat compared to our first quarter average lumber price. This is based on approximately 115 million board feet of lumber.

As a reminder, a $10 per thousand board foot change in lumber price equals approximately $12 million of consolidated EBITDA for us on an annual basis. Shifting to real estate, we expect to sell approximately 43,000 acres of rural land, which includes the sale of 34,000 Southern acres for $58 million, as Eric previously mentioned. Additionally, we expect to sell approximately 24 Chenal Valley residential lots in the second quarter. Additional real estate details are provided on the slide. Overall, we expect our total adjusted EBITDA will be higher in the second quarter, primarily attributable to more rural land sales, driven by the Southern land sale to FIA. That concludes our prepared remarks. Dee, I would now like to open the call to Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Again, press star one to join the queue. And your first question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please ask your question.

Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)

Good morning.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Hi, Anthony.

Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)

Hey, you know, obviously, you know, lumber prices are pretty dynamic, and it's early in the year, but I'm just wondering, as you think about the kind of cash flow that you could generate this year and with the spending on Waldo, can you just talk a little bit more around kind of capital allocation and, you know, supporting the dividend potential opportunities to delever, you know, at a time when the stock does seem like it's trading at, you know, maybe near record discount to, to NAV? Just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that, given, you know, it seems like there's a few options here.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Anthony. So, you know, regarding capital allocation, you know, I think first and foremost, we're gonna protect our balance sheet. You know, we're gonna maintain investment-grade status. But, you know, moving beyond that, you know, as a REIT, we view our dividend as sacrosanct or nearly sacrosanct. So that's always gonna be the highest priority for us. I will say that, you know, as our stock drifts lower in a tough lumber market environment, share repurchases look more attractive to us than otherwise. But I would also say that we're constantly thinking about M&A. And in the first quarter, we completed what we call Project Ridgewood, our $31 million acquisition in Arkansas.

And I think that kind of pushed share repurchases to the back burner a little bit. We also like investing in our mills quite a bit. We like wood products CapEx. Obviously, it might not feel good doing it right now when we're in such a tough lumber price environment, but, you know, lumber prices are, they're historically very volatile, and, you know, this too shall pass. The industry cannot continue to run at breakeven or, for a lot of mills, below breakeven levels. So continuing to keep our fleet of mills as first or second quartile mills is always gonna be our objective, assuming we can find projects to generate, you know, the needed returns.

So, I think that's CapEx is always given strong consideration amongst our capital allocation levers. Regarding debt paydown, you know, I think it all comes down to what our refinance costs are gonna be and how do those refinance costs compare to other options that we have. We're just now really getting into those discussions with our banking partners. And so it's a little premature to speak to delevering at this point. And we also have those, you know, as Wayne mentioned, we still have $200 million of swaps sitting on our balance sheet that we can deploy to bring down our borrowing costs. So it's a little bit premature to talk about delevering at this point, but certainly that'll be in the mix of our capital allocation decisions.

Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just picking up on one thing you mentioned, I mean, you know, if you're running EBITDA break even in lumber, presumably there's a lot of other producers who are burning cash here. And, you know, obviously not asking you to speak for other competitors here, but I'm just wondering if you are surprised that we haven't seen more capacity curtailments in lumber year to date. Are you starting to see them? And just any kind of industry dynamics that would keep some of this capacity on maybe for longer. Is there an import dynamic? I'm just wondering if you could talk generally about the supply side of the supply-demand in lumber.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, that's, that's a great question, Anthony. You know, so, so capacity utilization across the industry, I think it's running in the high 70% kind of range, which is, you know, frankly, quite low. It hasn't been this low since, I don't know, 2012, 2013, something like that. Relative to demand, there is a lot of excess supply in the industry, particularly, in southern yellow pine, where we've seen a lot of, new capacity come online. So far this year, we have seen nine mills close up. And, you know, several were in BC, but you also had some in the Pacific Northwest, and then you had some in the South.

But, you know, given where we sit today with pricing, where it's at today, and I've seen cost curves for the industry, there's no doubt that there are a lot of mills that are hemorrhaging cash right now. And so I would not be surprised if we see more curtailments in the coming months, especially when you take into consideration the fact that duties are going up on Canadian lumber, you know, from 8%-14% here in just a couple of months. So there's still more pain yet to be felt. So yeah, to answer your question, I'm almost certain there'll be more curtailments. Everybody's got to make their own decision, but nobody likes hemorrhaging cash, that's for sure.

Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Morning.

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

Maybe, can you talk a little bit about sort of your operating rate in lumber in the first quarter? Perhaps talk about sort of, you know, how your order books are trending thus far, given that we are, you know, pretty close, if not already, we are in the busiest time of the year.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah. So, Ketan, we've been running our mills as hard as we possibly can, producing as much volume as we can, and it's because we've got good, efficient mills. Now, you might look at it and say, "Wow, you had break-even EBITDA, you know, why would you bother running so hard?" But you have to take it one step further, 'cause there are administration costs to running your mills. If you look at each mill individually, each mill individually can make money. But then you add up the earnings from those individual mills, and they have to offset administration costs. And after you offset those administration costs, we ran at a break-even level in the first quarter.

The point is that the mills themselves are individually doing just fine, barely doing just fine. In this environment, it still makes sense for us to run as hard as we can. Now, I will say, our mills are better than a lot of mills, and I generally know where they sit on the cost curve as it relates to, you know, industry-wide competition. I know that there are a lot of mills that are not covering their cash variable costs, and those are the mills that I'm sure the owners are having tough discussions about what to do. You know, for us, we're continuing to run as hard as we can, but I'm sure it's a different discussion at other mills.

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

Got it. No, that's helpful. How are your order books for this time of the year, Eric, in lumber?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

You know, I would say our order books are... They're adequate. You know what, what will generally happen is, when we have a point of view that markets are gonna get better, we'll keep our order book short, you know, basically saving lumber that we can sell at what we think is gonna be at a high- at a higher price. When prices are really strong, we'll tend to extend our order books and, and sell lumber out as much as, I don't know, four weeks out into the future. Today, our order books are relatively short, and the reason it's short is not necessarily because of lack of demand, it's because our sense is that things are bottoming, and we wanna save lumber to sell at a future higher price. Does that make sense?

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

It does. No, that's helpful. And then just one last one from me. I want to come back to capital allocation again. You talked about sort of during Q1, you know, you were going through the asset purchase, and to that to some degree, that, you know, sort of pushed the share repurchases to the back burner. So as we sort of think about, you know, as you move past that, how do you approach that? And I'm just curious, how does this, sort of, the net leverage, which is, of course, driven by depressed lumber prices, which is sitting at, you know, 5x right now, how does that sort of influence sort of your decision as you think about share repurchases in particular?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah. So, Ketan, we started out the year, we were, we were pretty optimistic on where markets were headed. You think back, you know, I, I think the market was expecting, six interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. Suddenly, that went to three interest rate cuts. Last I heard, we were down to maybe one interest rate cut, perhaps in December. And I don't know, after some Employment Cost Index data this morning, we may be at zero cuts for the year. So, you know, what kind of an economic environment are we in? Is this... Are we gonna have a hard landing? Are we gonna have a soft landing? Is there gonna be no landing? It's, it's really murky what the outlook for the economy is right now.

So it's hard, it's hard to have a lot of conviction about where markets are headed, with this kind of a, kind of a backdrop. So you know, I think that, that's, that's one of the factors that weighed into the discussion. The board meets every quarter to talk about, share repurchases, and, and certainly, that'll, that'll be a topic of conversation at an upcoming board meeting. Now, I would, I would also tell you that what we look at, we don't. We, we think about, our five-year plan, our five-year model for what, our dividend ought to be and what leverage ought to be.

There are gonna be periods of time where markets are blowing and going, like they were during COVID, and there are gonna be periods of time where the industry gets stressed, and we get stressed like we are right now. This too shall pass. I do think markets are gonna get better. I do think lumber markets are gonna get better. I do think supply is gonna come down. I do think demand is gonna come back. Capacity utilization in the industry will come back, and earnings are gonna come back to our wooden products business.

And I would also add that, you know, as I think about, you know, interest coverage and leverage and all that, you know, our current forecast has our cash balances running higher than where they are today by the end of the year. So I feel pretty good about where we're at in the environment. The only question I have is: Where is the economy headed? It's very, very unclear at this stage.

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

No, that's fair. Do you still have a 10b5-1 program in place, Eric?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, we still have one in place.

Ketan Mamtora (Director)

Okay, perfect. I'll turn it over. Thanks for all the, all the clarifications.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yep, thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Thank you, first question: So in the slides, it indicates you're expecting higher lumber prices 2Q v 1Q. You mentioned that they're to date, flat, and presumably, the spot is lower than where it was on average. So that seems to convey some optimism that there's going to be some improvement. Can you kind of just clarify? Because that'd be pretty soon. I totally understand the conversation about why we're at lows or toward lows over the cycle. What gives the confidence that we're gonna get some improvement, hopefully sooner rather than later?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, we do expect prices to improve, and we do think we're feeling some weakness right now. You know, particularly in multifamily, we've seen project finance costs move up. Also, R&R and treated markets in particular in the South is under a bit of pressure. You know, I think the one thing that gives me hope or optimism, Mark, is that we are moving into the spring demand build time of the year. Markets haven't completely fallen out of bed. Demand has not fallen completely out of bed. Single-family starts are hanging in there at over 1 million, as we said, for several months in a row now. You know, I think Home Depot said their comp store sales are gonna be down 1% for the year.

I think Lowe's was maybe -2% to -3% for the year. So things haven't completely fallen out of bed. And as we get into the summertime and people start taking on more and more, repair and model projects, and I think demand will come back, and there's an opportunity for prices to move higher. It's just, it's hard for me to see prices not getting better, given that so many mills across North America are below breakeven right now.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Totally understood. But it just that—so there's nothing, though, that you're seeing right in this moment... I'm overreading it if I conclude that you're seeing something that's gonna lead to, like, a near-term improvement, necessarily. Reasons you gave, all very valid, although the timing, I guess, unclear on most of them, or am I missing something?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, our forecast is things dip in May, and then they come back in June. We'll see.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Okay. And then second, kind of on the almost flip side of this is nice to see sawlog prices expected to be up 6%. I guess the strength that we've seen in the West. I would have thought there would have been a bigger increase given the way, you know, the way it lags through. Maybe if there's just a word on the dynamics or if there's something that's going on there that wouldn't be obviously apparent.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, looking at the North on the sawlog prices, I think it did actually trend pretty close to where we see the... You know, when you lag the Random Lengths to where, to where we came out, I think it paralleled fairly close, actually. So, really, the story was for the quarter, just the dynamics around, you know, heavier logs. It was really the density issue more than, you know, the indexing pricing itself.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Yeah. Wait, I apologize. I meant the second quarter outlook, the 6% improvement, when I would have thought you would have been positioned for a bigger increase given what happened in, like, you know, inland hemlock and et cetera, over, and then the lag. I apologize. We can take this offline and go through it.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Um-

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Well, yeah, I mean, as it looks for the outlook, you know, where we head into Q2, I think there is, again, you know, you've got the seasonal lighter log mix. There is an improvement, but I think the other consideration is there is the lag there, but you also have to think about, you know, where spring breakup is, and, you know, there's no hauling in that period as well. And so the timing of the lag is a bit extended, so I think that factors in.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Okay. And then lastly, so when is the FIA sale expected to be completed?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Second quarter. Yeah.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Can you give us kind of more specifically within the quarter? Is that very soon, or might it be toward the end of the quarter?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

I mean, mid to later in the quarter is the expectation.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Okay, great. And then, presumably, you know, that... Does that then is that likely to put share repurchase more to the front burner, given... You know, I guess you'd given the explanation in the first quarter that you had the acquisition, and, you know, now the share price is lower, and you'd have the monies coming in. Or, I mean, is the consideration of how things work with the refi need to be kept in, you know, as a part of the equation as well? What... How would you have us kind of understand your sentiment on priorities, as that-

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

... $58 million comes in?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

I think that clearly is a move, the likelihood of share repurchases a little bit more forward. But you got to remember, there's a couple other big factors that are in the back of our minds. One is the Waldo startup. How does that go? Because we've seen some mills in the South have disastrous startups, and others have gone well. We expect ours to go well, but that remains a little bit of an unknown. I'd also like to see lumber markets improve. We'll see how that goes, and then part of it's gonna be what happens with the refinance equation, what happens to our view on our expected borrowing costs.So, there's a couple of moving pieces there, but certainly, all things equal, completing the FIA sale will de-risk things for us.

Mark Weintraub (Senior Analyst)

Okay, appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Matthew McKellar (VP)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First-

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Morning.

Matthew McKellar (VP)

I think last quarter you talked about modest signs of slowing and takeup of lots in Chenal Valley. Your guidance for 24 lots in Q2 and 130 lots for 2024 seems to imply a significant pickup in sales in the second half of the year. Can you just talk about the visibility you might have to stronger sales in Q3 and Q4?

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

... Yeah, Matt, this is Wayne. You know, the timing of our outlook on real estate lots is really driven off of inventory availability. So we expect to bring more lots to market in the later half of the year. I mean, real-- you know, we try to-- we really closely manage our CapEx for real estate. You know, we don't try to get out over our skis and create excess inventory, so we really try to stay just in front of demand. And yeah, our outlook for the rest of the year is when we're bringing a couple sub developments to the market. Those will be completed here in the coming months, and then be available for market later this year. So that's really, it's lot availability and what we're bringing to market, and that's what's driving the timing.

Matthew McKellar (VP)

Great. Thanks for the detail there. And then, I was wondering if you could just provide a bit more commentary on the state of the timberlands markets, for M&A. Maybe just what you're seeing, whether there's been any changes in sentiments in the markets and what have you, maybe since your last update.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Yeah. So I think the best way to describe it is that the market is relatively quiet right now. You know, I would say in general, $3 billion-$4 billion of timberland changes hands each year, and, you know, we'll see where we wind up this year, but I think it's gonna wind up being a relatively light year. So far, the trade rags in the industry have highlighted the fact that we've had four busted deals in the industry so far this year, deals that did not get done.

Now, I would also say that they were, generally speaking, from what I know about them, they were very low-quality deals, so it's no surprise that they didn't get done. But I do think demand for high-quality timberland remains quite high. And it's just that right now there isn't a lot of high-quality timberland on the market. So we'll see how the market shakes out, but I think there's no doubt demand is still out there.

Matthew McKellar (VP)

Great. Thanks for that. That's all on my end. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Nico Pacini from Truist Securities. Please ask your question.

Nico Pacini (Analyst)

Hi, guys. This is Nico on for Mike Roxland today.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Morning.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Morning.

Nico Pacini (Analyst)

Morning. First off, can you talk about any, any early indications on demand for carbon credits, realizing that you're a little ways away from actually placing in the market? And then, has that changed at all since you began pursuing forest carbon credits?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

No, you know, our carbon credit deal, it's gonna be a voluntary project, and you know, we've had price discussions with our broker and with the party that we think is gonna wind up buying them. And we think the price talk is still in this $20-$30 a ton range, and we feel pretty good about it. I don't know, Wayne, do you have anything to add to that?

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Yeah, no, I think, again, it's more of, you know, the updates we gave in the past. We're still on track and you know, moving the project forward, you know, trying to target later this year, but we'll see. You know, it's a complex, and we're developing high-quality credits, and, you know, that takes time, and we're also dependent on, you know, third parties that are involved in the accreditation process. So ultimately, that'll drive completion. But yeah, definitely, we think there's strong demand there.

Nico Pacini (Analyst)

Understood. Thank you for that. And then just realizing that so far, solar and carbon credits seem to be the more mature NCS initiatives, not just for Potlatch but in the industry, Can you give any update or maybe an estimate of when we might see those other initiatives come into play, like bioenergy or carbon capture and sequestration?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, certainly we're in the early innings on, you know, biomass, maybe, you know, brine lithium, we're looking at, you know, carbon storage and sequestration. Yeah, those are, you know, we're developing all those opportunities. We continue to make progress. I think it's difficult to put a exact timeframe on where we would see, monetizing some of these type of projects, but we're all, you know, we're very active in each one of those and, pursuing, pursuing each of those opportunities with, outside parties. You know, we, we're under some NDAs as it relates to CCS, as we continue to, look at that opportunity.

I think we estimate, you know, in CCS, we, we may have, you know, around or up to about, you know, 150,000 acres that are suitable for CCS, and, you know, we're active in looking at that geological formations that I think will support CCS. So we're, we're active in all those areas and, you know, aggressively pursuing each of those opportunities.

Nico Pacini (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you, guys. I'll turn it over.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes to the line of George Staphos from Bank of America. Please ask your question.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Hi. Thanks, everybody. Good morning.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Morning.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

How are you doing? So the harvest levels in the first quarter were a touch better, I think, than your initial guidance. Was that just a weight issue, or were there other things that were driving the slightly better harvest profile? And then, you know, maybe staying on that same, you know, topic, as we look to the South, and, you know, again, we all know that these are local markets. We can't look monolithically. Nonetheless, pricing remains relatively flat in the South. It's been relatively flat, flat for a long time. When do you see the inflection coming in, in timber pricing in the South?

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

... Yeah, George, so your first question on harvest volume. Yeah, we were, I would say, slightly ahead in the South this first quarter compared to what we had planned. And, you know, we had just favorable harvest conditions, and we took advantage of those conditions, and it drove a slight uptick in our, in our harvest volume. But we continued to maintain, you know, our overall outlook for harvest volumes for the year, you know, somewhere around probably 0.6 million. Yeah. So no, no real change there. I think it's just, you know, taking advantage of conditions when you, when you can. And as far as pricing is concerned, yeah, I think you're right. You know, we're—we've been in a pretty stable environment. I think that's our near-term outlook, both on the demand side and the pricing side.

Even when we look across, you know, kind of digging deeper into both of our markets, whether that's, you know, kind of on the Gulf, Gulf South side or the Southeast, I think we see, you know, pricing relatively stable, across the board. You know, when that can turn? Yeah, I think, you know, as markets continue to tension, especially, you know, in the Southeast side, where we see a premium because markets are more tension, I think when, when lumber demand picks up, those tension markets, you'll see a bigger increase in pricing, in that region, probably compared to where we're a little bit less tension in, in the Gulf South region, so that'll probably lag.

But, you know, there is additional capacity coming online, so, you know, timing is difficult to ultimately say, but we do think those markets will tension over time as well. But, yeah, I think as soon as we see demand picking up, you could see those, especially those tension markets, really turning around much quicker.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

I mean, the log and the lumber markets have decoupled in the South for a long time. Is your view that we're getting to a point maybe within the next year that they will recouple? And so as we start to see lumber prices moving higher, we actually will see a higher propensity to pay for logs? Or is that still kind of too hard to call at this juncture?

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Yeah, I would-

George Staphos (Managing Director)

If that was the answer.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Yeah, I think that's a bit difficult. I mean, look, we, we haven't... Prices have been fairly stable. I mean, you know, when we saw the historic run-up in lumber prices, we didn't see a huge increase in log prices in the South. I mean, but, you know, we continue to add capacity in the South, and, you know, I think as those tension, you'll see prices come up over time, but it's difficult to, you know, pinpoint exactly when that'll be. I mean, there's a lot of variables involved.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

I think, George, you got to, you got to step back and think about, like, what happened after the Great Financial Crisis. All those mills closed in the South. And you think about what happened to growth and drain, you know, the forest was growing much faster than the harvest each year. So a lot of standing inventory went on the stump each and every year for 15 years. And the latest industry data that I saw, it had drain actually equaling or maybe even slightly exceeding growth. So now the standing timber inventory in the South has now reached an equilibrium. And if you look out over the next 5 years, in fact, drain is going to be higher than growth. So you'll start to see those standing inventories come back down again.

Now, to Wayne's point, every market is going to be a little bit different, right? The already tension markets are going to show more tension, you know, assuming lumber demand continues to improve. And you'll see those tension markets show better price appreciation than the non-tension markets. But the reality is, even the non-tension markets are expected to get better over the coming years as the drain exceeds growth.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Would you be maybe more willing now than in past years to consider selling in areas where you're not going to see that tension in the next several years, given that, you know, again, you know, 15+ years since the crisis?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Well, you know, as portfolio managers, we're always open to selling. I mean, just take a look at our FIA transaction, where we sold 4-year-old trees for $1,700 an acre. That's good core timberland for sure, but it's just really young trees that have no cash flows or virtually no cash flows for 20-some years. So we're always open to the idea of selling. But, you know, I think the thing you got to keep in mind is you don't want to be just in the tension markets. Look at the pullback that we've just had over the past year or two. Which markets have taken it the hardest in the South? It's been those most tensioned markets, 'cause those are the areas where capacity comes out first.

So I think you want to play in both tensioned and non-tensioned markets, frankly. The sawmill expansions, the additions that we're seeing, they tend to be in more of the weaker markets, and the fact that capacity is going in those weaker markets is what in turn is going to drive log prices higher. But at the end of the day, like I said at the start, we're portfolio managers. You know, at the right price, we'll sell just about anything.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

No, understood, and I appreciate the thoughts on that, Eric. I guess my final question, I'll turn it over. Recognizing the land sales will make for a nicely improved 2Q versus 1Q. If we hold that aside and we look just at timberlands and wood products, you know, wood products, lumber, volumes might be up a touch from what we saw in the first quarter, but pricing right now is relatively stable, and actually May, you're expecting to be lower. In timberlands, you know, harvest lines are, you know, recognizing you're going to be opportunistic, will be a touch lower than the first quarter, where you've got Northern prices up, Southern prices down. So it seems like, you know, operationally, EBITDA is kind of flat, 2Q versus 1Q. Would you agree with that, that very, very quick analysis?

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

I think that was pretty quick analysis. I mean, my expectation is, yeah, lumber markets are weak. We actually had a decent April, not a great April, but it was certainly better than, say, the first quarter. So, you know, I think wood products could be a little bit better. I think timberlands, I don't know, it may be flattish, but yeah, real estate should be up significantly.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you very much, guys, for the thoughts. Good luck in the quarter.

Eric Cremers (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I'm showing there are no more questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Wayne Wasechek.

Wayne Wasechek (VP and CFO)

Thank you for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. That concludes our call.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.