PB
PDS Biotechnology Corp (PDSB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025: net loss of $9.0M and EPS of $(0.19), improving year over year from $(10.7)M and $(0.29) in Q3 2024 as OpEx fell to $8.1M; cash was $26.2M at quarter-end .
- Final VERSATILE-002 data strengthened clinical profile: median overall survival (mOS) 39.3 months (95% CI lower bound 23.9, upper bound not estimable) and progression-free survival (PFS) 6.3 months in CPS ≥1 patients, prompting a planned VERSATILE-003 protocol amendment to include PFS as a surrogate primary endpoint while keeping mOS for full approval; VERSATILE-003 is temporarily paused pending FDA discussions, with enrolled patients continuing on therapy .
- EPS beat consensus: Q3 $(0.19) vs $(0.1967) consensus (beat by ~$0.0067); Q2 and Q1 were also beats versus S&P Global consensus, driven by lower operating expenses and cost control, with revenue consensus at $0 given no commercial products *.
- Near-term stock catalysts: FDA meeting/outcome on PFS-based surrogate primary endpoint and accelerated approval path, plus continued translational updates (SITC biomarker data) and financing actions (registered direct offering of ~$5.3M gross; warrants repriced) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Robust survival/efficacy: VERSATILE-002 final mOS reached 39.3 months and PFS 6.3 months in CPS ≥1, supporting expedited regulatory strategy in VERSATILE-003 .
- CEO: “We believe the positive PFS data offers an important opportunity to shorten the trial duration and time to regulatory submission while maintaining mOS as the endpoint for full FDA approval.”
- Translational validation: NCI SITC data showed immune biomarkers predict benefit and PDS01ADC reprograms NK cells and expands stem-like T cells, reinforcing mechanistic underpinnings for combinations .
- Cost discipline: R&D down to $4.6M (from $6.8M YoY), total OpEx down to $8.1M (from $10.2M YoY), narrowing net loss .
What Went Wrong
- Trial pause: Temporary pause of VERSATILE-003 for protocol amendment introduces timing risk; FDA meeting outcome is uncertain .
- Financing/dilution and higher net interest: Registered direct offering (~$5.3M initial proceeds) and increased net interest expense ($0.9M vs $0.5M YoY) highlight funding needs and cost of capital .
- Cash burn trajectory: Cash declined from $31.9M (Q2) to $26.2M (Q3); while offering adds liquidity, runway remains a focal risk absent revenues .
Financial Results
Notes: Company did not disclose product revenues or margin metrics; no non-GAAP measures were presented .
EPS vs. Wall Street Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (on expedited pathway): “We believe the positive PFS data offers an important opportunity to shorten the trial duration and time to regulatory submission while maintaining mOS as the endpoint for full FDA approval.”
- CEO (on HPV16+ disease burden): “HPV has become the principal etiologic factor in oropharyngeal cancer… over 90% of HPV positive oropharyngeal cancers are HPV-16 positive.”
- CMO (on PFS conduct): “Investigators are trained… reviewed by a central review… sensitive to pseudoprogression… we will continue to follow them.”
- CFO (on quarter): “Net loss of $9 million or $0.19 per share… R&D expenses $4.6 million; G&A $3.6 million; cash balance $26.2 million.”
Q&A Highlights
- Protocol amendment logistics: Enrolled patients continue treatment; sample size not disclosed pending FDA discussion; aim to reach readouts earlier via PFS .
- Control arm PFS assumptions: Conservatively ~3 months based on KEYNOTE-048 (3.2 months CPS ≥1) and LEAP-10 (2.8 months), with worse prognosis for HPV16+ noted in literature .
- PFS assessment rigor: Training across expanded sites; central imaging review; awareness of pseudoprogression to avoid premature calls .
- Post-protocol therapy in ICI-resistant setting: Expect short mOS (3–4 months published), implying prolonged survival likely attributable to PDS0101 regimen .
Estimates Context
- EPS beats:
- Q3 2025: Actual $(0.19) vs Consensus $(0.1967)* → beat by ~$0.0067; driven by lower OpEx and cost control *.
- Q2 2025: Actual $(0.21) vs Consensus $(0.2333)* → beat by ~$0.0233 *.
- Q1 2025: Actual $(0.21) vs Consensus $(0.2467)* → beat by ~$0.0367 *.
- Revenue: Consensus $0.0* in each quarter; company reports no product revenue in releases; focus remains on OpEx and clinical milestones *.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Financial and Clinical KPI Trends
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clinical strength is the core driver: mOS 39.3 months and PFS 6.3 months in CPS ≥1 materially de-risk the biology and support an accelerated path via PFS in VERSATILE-003 .
- Regulatory inflection ahead: FDA feedback on PFS as a surrogate primary endpoint is pivotal; a positive outcome would be a major catalyst and could shorten the timeline to submission .
- Execution focus: Central review/training to manage pseudoprogression risk should improve PFS data integrity, aiding regulatory case .
- Funding posture improved but dilution risk remains: ~$5.3M offering and warrant repricing supplement cash; watch runway vs trial timelines .
- Estimates likely drift modestly better on EPS given OpEx discipline; revenue remains at $0 as the company advances toward registrational milestones *.
- Competitive positioning favorable in HPV16+ HNC with limited direct competition and industry shift recognizing HPV+ prevalence .
- Trading implications: Stock likely sensitive to FDA meeting scheduling/outcomes, additional clinical/translational disclosures, and any clarity on amended sample size/timelines .
Citations:
Quarterly results, cash, OpEx, and expenses: .
VERSATILE-002 survival/PFS: .
Regulatory/accelerated pathway and trial pause: .
SITC translational data: .
Q&A protocol/PFS control assumptions/training: .
Offering/warrant changes: .
EPS consensus and counts: S&P Global estimates.*