PH
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 results were broadly in line with company outlook: Same-Property Hotel EBITDA was $105.4M; Adjusted EBITDA re was $99.2M (roughly $2.2M above midpoint); Adjusted FFO per diluted share was $0.51 (about $0.03 above midpoint) .
- Revenue modestly beat Wall Street consensus, while GAAP EPS missed: Revenue $398.7M vs $396.7M estimate*; GAAP diluted EPS to common was -$0.37 vs -$0.02 estimate* ; S&P Global values*.
- Guidance narrowed/trimmed due to a prolonged federal government shutdown impacting demand in D.C. and San Diego: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA re high-end lowered by $6.0M; Same-Property Total RevPAR high-end lowered by 60 bps; Adjusted FFO/share range narrowed with midpoint unchanged .
- Balance sheet actions are a positive catalyst: Completed $400M 1.625% converts due 2030 and retired $400M 2026 notes at a 2% discount; instituted a new $150M common share repurchase program; ended Q3 with $232M cash and net debt/TTM EBITDA of 6.1x .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong market recovery in San Francisco (+8.3% RevPAR), with occupancy up sharply; Chicago also grew RevPAR (+2.3%) .
- Cost discipline remained exceptional: Same-Property hotel expenses before fixed costs rose just 0.4% YoY; per-occupied-room costs fell ~2% .
- Redeveloped resorts delivered: Newport Harbor Island Resort EBITDA rose strongly (Q3 leadership within portfolio), and Estancia La Jolla and Jekyll Island Club posted RevPAR gains, fueled by comprehensive transformations .
Management quotes:
- “Our third-quarter results were in line with our outlook, reflecting strong operating execution and continued outperformance in driving portfolio-wide operating efficiencies…” — Jon E. Bortz, CEO .
- “San Francisco once again led the portfolio…” .
- “Total expenses before fixed costs increased just 0.4% year-over-year…” .
What Went Wrong
- ADR pressure and mixed urban performance: Occupancy rose ~190 bps, but ADR declined 5.4%, driving -3.1% RevPAR and -1.5% Total RevPAR vs Q3 2024 .
- Los Angeles (-10.4% RevPAR) and Washington D.C. (-16.4%) were headwinds, with demand disruptions and a prolonged federal shutdown dampening travel .
- Group attendance softness and shorter booking windows pressured near-term rates; group occupancy down ~2% and attrition ticked up modestly .
Financial Results
Core P&L and Operating Metrics
KPI Trends
Segment/Market Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs 2024 Same-Property RevPAR variance)
Performance vs Wall Street Estimates (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “San Francisco… fueled by robust citywide conventions and healthy business and leisure transient demand growth. Chicago also exceeded expectations…” — Jon E. Bortz .
- “We achieved a key strategic milestone with the successful completion of our $400 million convertible notes offering at a very attractive 1.625% rate…” — Jon E. Bortz .
- “Same property hotel expenses before fixed costs rose just 0.4% year-over-year… per-occupied-room basis, expenses declined about 2%.” — Management remarks .
- “We are working closely with Curator to identify and implement the most impactful [AI/robotics] solutions. We expect the hotel operating model to look quite different in a few years...” — Management .
Q&A Highlights
- San Francisco rate confidence: Compression outside citywide dates enabling rate push; AI/tech events and corporate-led conventions (e.g., Microsoft Ignite) bolster demand .
- LA outlook: Expect improvement in 2026 due to easier comps and ramping film/TV production credits; short-term stabilization underway .
- Expense trajectory: Expect moderating wage increases and continued offset from efficiency initiatives; targeting every expense line, aided by AI/automation .
- Government shutdown impacts: Material travel drag nationwide, especially in D.C.; expected tailwind in 2026 as travel normalizes .
- Dispositions/transactions: One hotel under contract held-for-sale ($72M); broader transaction market showing pent-up demand awaiting macro clarity .
Estimates Context
- Revenue: Beat by ~$2.1M versus S&P consensus* ($398.7M actual vs $396.7M estimate), consistent with modest top-line resilience .
- EPS: Miss on GAAP diluted EPS (actual -$0.37 vs -$0.02 estimate*), reflecting ADR pressure, DC/LA demand headwinds, and impairment charges .
- EBITDA: S&P Global “EBITDA” actual came in below consensus (90.0M* vs 99.2M*), while company’s Adjusted EBITDA re was $99.2M (above midpoint) .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates may adjust:
- Street models likely reduce FY25 top-line/EBITDA assumptions for DC/LA and adjust Q4 run-rate for shutdown-related softness; increase 2026 ramp assumptions for SF and LA given events and film credits .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cost discipline is a durable differentiator; continued efficiency gains and AI-enabled tools should protect margins into 2026 despite wage pressures .
- Market mix matters: SF’s recovery and redeveloped resorts are offsetting DC/LA headwinds; portfolio positioning should drive outperformance as comps ease and event calendars strengthen in 2026 .
- Capital allocation is supportive: New $150M buyback and convert refinancing at 1.625% extend maturities and enhance FFO/NAV per share at discounts to NAV .
- Near-term caution: Q4 guidance reflects shutdown-related risk and continued leisure rate sensitivity; however, cost control and diversified demand channels provide downside buffers .
- 2026 setup looks favorable: World Cup, Super Bowl (SF), America 250 events, and easier LA/DC comps align with improving convention calendars and potential macro clarity .
- Watch for asset sales and redeployment into buybacks/debt reduction as the transaction market thaws; one property is already classified as held-for-sale .
- Track ADR recovery in SF and LA production ramp; pricing power on high-occupancy nights and policy tailwinds could accelerate RevPAR normalization .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 2025 window)
- Dividend declaration: $0.01 per common share and preferred dividends per series for Q3 2025 .
- Earnings call scheduled and webcast details .
Cross-References and Non-GAAP Notes
- Non-GAAP reconciliations for Adjusted FFO, EBITDA re, and Same-Property metrics are provided in exhibits; LaPlaya BI insurance income affects Adjusted EBITDA re/FFO but is excluded from Same-Property EBITDA .
- Balance sheet snapshot: Cash and restricted cash $232M; weighted-average interest rate 4.1%; 96% effectively fixed; net debt/TTM corporate EBITDA 6.1x .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*