Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Growth in U.S. Thrombectomy Business Driven by New Products and Market Share Gains : Penumbra's U.S. thrombectomy revenue grew by 25% year-over-year in Q2 2024, fueled by new products like Flash 2.0 and Lightning Bolt. The company reported gaining market share and anticipates continued momentum in the second half of the year.
- Robust Performance in Mature Neurovascular (Stroke) Segment : Despite being a mature segment, Penumbra's U.S. stroke business grew by 19% year-over-year in Q2 2024. This strong performance underscores the effectiveness of their products and positions them well for future success with upcoming launches like Thunderbolt.
- Positive Outlook for 2025 with Upcoming Product Launches and Easing Headwinds : Penumbra expects that new product launches, continued market share gains, and the resolution of temporary challenges—such as delays in Europe and economic conditions in China—will drive favorable prospects in 2025, potentially leading to accelerated growth. The company has taken a more conservative approach to guidance, which may set the stage for potential outperformance.
- Reduced 2024 Revenue Guidance and Lowered U.S. Thrombectomy Growth Expectations: Penumbra lowered its 2024 total revenue guidance by $60 million, attributing $20 million of this reduction to decreased expectations for U.S. thrombectomy growth, now projected at 23% to 25% year-over-year instead of the previously guided 27% to 30%, indicating potential growth challenges ahead.
- Product Launch Delays in Europe Affecting Short-term Revenue: The company announced delays in regulatory approval for key products Lightning Flash 2.0 and Lightning Bolt 7 in Europe, which will defer expected revenue contributions to 2025, impacting international thrombectomy growth in the near term by approximately $50 million.
- Competitive Pressures in VTE Market Could Impact Market Share: Penumbra acknowledged facing "particularly competitive tactics in the second half of the quarter" in the VTE market, which may affect its ability to gain market share and achieve projected growth rates.
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U.S. Thrombectomy Growth Outlook
Q: How confident are you in achieving U.S. thrombectomy growth guidance?
A: Management expressed confidence in achieving the 23% to 25% annual growth guidance for U.S. thrombectomy, citing strong momentum from new products like Flash 2.0 and Lightning Bolt. They believe the momentum is on their side and wouldn't project numbers they don't think are achievable. -
Guidance Philosophy Change
Q: Why did you lower U.S. thrombectomy growth guidance from 27%-30% to 23%-25%?
A: As the company has grown with more variables affecting performance, management decided to adopt a more conservative guidance philosophy to build comfort into projections. They prefer to focus on innovation rather than constant discussions about guidance. , -
OUS Thrombectomy Growth and China Impact
Q: What's the outlook for OUS thrombectomy growth given delays and China issues?
A: Delays in European regulatory clearance for Lightning Flash 2.0 and Lightning Bolt 7 will shift expected revenue to 2025 and beyond. In China, economic conditions are affecting distribution and royalty streams, impacting about $20 million of revenue in the second half. China represents about 2% of total business, so it's not a substantial risk. -
Operating Margin Outlook and Impacts
Q: Will the exit from immersive healthcare change your operating margin guidance?
A: Despite the decision on immersive healthcare, operating margin guidance remains at an improvement of 100 to 200 basis points year-over-year, depending on the timing of savings realization in the second half. The updated revenue guidance reduces gross profit by approximately $30 million, impacting operating profit, but first-half performance was strong with over 200 basis points expansion already achieved. -
Competitive Dynamics and Market Share in VTE
Q: How are competitive pressures affecting your VTE market share?
A: Management stated they grew at the high end of their pre-stated range in VTE, taking market share as the market grew significantly. With the full launch of Flash 2.0, they expect continued share gains and improved performance in the second half. They acknowledged competitive tactics but believe having the best products and physician focus on safety puts them in a strong position. , , -
Product Launch Delays in Europe
Q: How are European product launch delays impacting revenue?
A: Slight delays in regulatory clearance for Lightning Flash 2.0 and Lightning Bolt 7 in Europe mean these products will launch later this year, but without sufficient time to generate the full expected revenue in 2024. This revenue is not lost but will contribute more in 2025 and beyond. -
Thrombectomy Volume Trends and ASP Impact
Q: How are underlying thrombectomy volumes trending as ASP benefits lapse?
A: Underlying volumes are up in correlation with reported growth numbers. The vast majority of growth is now driven by volume and unit-based increases, as the company has anniversaried prior price increases. This trend is expected to continue going forward. -
2025 Outlook and Growth Acceleration
Q: Should we expect growth acceleration in 2025 after transient headwinds?
A: While management declined to provide quantitative guidance, they indicated that with transient headwinds like issues in China and delayed product launches behind them, and new products coming to market, 2025 is expected to be a strong year with potential acceleration in growth. , -
Coronary Performance and Potential Trials
Q: Do you plan to run new trials to drive coronary thrombectomy growth?
A: Currently, conducting new randomized trials in coronary thrombectomy is not seen as cost-effective due to reimbursement dynamics and the existing effectiveness of their product. The company is focusing efforts on areas like VTE, PE, arterial, and stroke, where they can have a bigger impact. -
Margins and Gross Margin Target
Q: How will you achieve your long-term gross margin target of 70%?
A: The exit from immersive healthcare has minimal impact on gross margin. Continued gradual expansion is expected due to favorable product mix since the launch of CAVT and operational improvements in manufacturing processes. These factors will help achieve the 70%+ gross margin target in the longer term. -
Plans to Address Competitive Tactics
Q: How are you responding to competitors' tactics in the market?
A: Management emphasized that having the best products is key to competing effectively. They are engaging with customers about their products' benefits and safety, and believe that physicians ultimately choose the best and safest products, which positions them strongly against competitive tactics. ,