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PI

Penumbra Inc (PEN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered revenue of $339.5M (+13.4% YoY) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.86; revenue and EPS both beat Wall Street consensus ($327.4M* revenue; $0.82* EPS), while gross margin was 66.0%, modestly below consensus (66.45%*) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.355B–$1.370B (from $1.340B–$1.360B in Q1), maintained U.S. thrombectomy growth of 20–21%, and reiterated full-year gross and operating margin targets .
  • U.S. thrombectomy remained the growth engine: $188.5M (+22.6% YoY), with U.S. VTE up 42% YoY on strong adoption of FLASH 2.0 and Lightning Bolt 12; embolization/access rose to $109.2M (+13.9% YoY), aided by the Ruby XL launch .
  • Margin trajectory remains intact despite front-loaded commercial hiring and XL launch costs; management reiterated the path to 70%+ gross margin by end of 2026 and expects sequential margin expansion in 2H25 .
  • Near-term catalysts: STORM-PE randomized trial results (fall), ongoing FDA process for Thunderbolt, and continued Ruby XL rollout; China headwinds showed signs of easing (small order placed after tariff pause) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Non-GAAP EPS and revenue both exceeded Street expectations; operating income of $40.8M (12.0% margin) and adjusted EBITDA of $61.4M (18.1% margin) demonstrated disciplined execution . Consensus: $0.82* EPS; $327.4M* revenue. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • U.S. thrombectomy revenue grew 22.6% YoY to $188.5M, with U.S. VTE +42% YoY; CEO: “We treated more VTE patients in the quarter than in any prior period” .
  • Commercial and product progress: Ruby XL FDA-cleared and launched; over 50 embolization reps and 40 vascular clinical specialists added to sharpen focus across thrombectomy and embolization .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin of 66.0% was slightly below consensus (66.45%*) and down sequentially versus Q1 (66.6%), reflecting XL launch investments and higher international mix; management expects sequential expansion in 2H25 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • International thrombectomy declined 16.2% YoY, primarily due to continued China weakness; CFO noted headwinds should ease in 2H25 .
  • Street flagged margin pressure from front-loaded hiring and potential near-term mix variability; CFO confirmed no impact to gross margin from commercial hiring but acknowledged timing/mix effects and maintained full-year margin guidance .

Financial Results

Summary vs prior quarters and YoY/Sequential

MetricQ4 2024 (oldest)Q1 2025Q2 2025 (newest)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$315.5 $324.1 $339.5
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.86 $1.00 $1.15
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.97 $0.83 $0.86
Gross Margin (%)66.8% 66.6% 66.0%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)19.8% 18.4% 18.1%
Revenue YoY Growth (%)+10.8% +16.3% +13.4%

Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus

MetricConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)$327.4*$339.5 Beat
Primary EPS ($, non-GAAP)$0.82*$0.86 Beat
Gross Margin (%)66.45%*66.0% Slight miss

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown – Q2 2025

SegmentU.S. ($M)International ($M)Total ($M)YoY (%)
Thrombectomy$188.5 $41.7 $230.3 +13.1% reported; +12.6% cc
Embolization & Access$72.3 $36.9 $109.2 +13.9% reported; +12.8% cc
Total$260.8 $78.6 $339.5 +13.4% reported; +12.7% cc

KPIs – Q2 2025

KPIValue
U.S. thrombectomy revenue ($M)$188.5
U.S. VTE YoY growth (%)+42%
Net income ($M) and margin (%)$45.3; 13.3%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M) and margin (%)$61.4; 18.1%
Cash & cash equivalents ($M, 6/30/25)$421.8
Cash + marketable securities ($M, Q2 end)$424.6

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 2025)Current Guidance (Q2 2025)Change
Total RevenueFY 2025$1.340B–$1.360B $1.355B–$1.370B Raised
U.S. Thrombectomy GrowthFY 202520%–21% 20%–21% Maintained
Gross MarginFY 2025>67% Maintained Maintained
Operating MarginFY 202513%–14% Maintained Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
U.S. VTE/Peripheral adoptionSustained thrombectomy growth; U.S. +21.7% in Q4; VTE momentum highlighted in Q1 U.S. VTE +42% YoY; record patients treated; share gains in DVT/PE Accelerating adoption/market share gains
Ruby XL launchFDA clearance expected; expedited build, launch late Q2/early Q3 FDA-cleared and launched; shipments began late Q2; expected accretive margin Product launched; positive early uptake
Thunderbolt (neuro)Clinical data submitted; 510(k); metrics to focus on clot removal time Active FDA process; management very positive, timing not guided Pending clearance; set-up via Red 72 Silver Label
Gross margin trajectory>67% FY25; toward 70% by end-2026 66.0% in Q2; sequential dip due to XL and mix; reiterates 70% by end-2026 and 2H25 expansion On track medium-term; near-term mix noise
China/internationalQ4: intl declines, China headwind ; Q1: removed ~$5M from forecast Intl thrombectomy -16.2% YoY; small China order post tariff pause; headwinds expected to ease in 2H Stabilization expected; selective recovery
Sales force strategyQ1: noted need for focus across portfolios Split thrombectomy vs embolization; 50+ EMBO reps and 40+ VCS hires, front-loaded investment Execution progressing; focus to drive growth

Management Commentary

  • “Gross margin of 66% was in line with our prior announced expectation as we executed on our planned accelerated Ruby XL inventory build… we remain on track… to achieve a gross margin profile of over 70% by the end of 2026.” — CEO .
  • “Revenue… $339.5 million… U.S. thrombectomy… increased 22.6%… led by 42% year-over-year growth in our U.S. VTE franchise.” — CEO .
  • “We have added over 50 embolization sales reps and over 40 vascular clinical specialists… [enabling] a team solely focused on our thrombectomy business, as well as a separate team focused on launching Ruby XL.” — CEO .
  • “We ended the second quarter… with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities… $424.6 million and no debt… driven by strong operating profitability.” — CFO .
  • “Due to our performance… we are increasing… total revenue to… $1,355 million–$1,370 million… maintain U.S. thrombectomy growth of 20%–21%… maintain… gross margin and operating margin.” — EVP Strategy .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margins/mix: Gross margin variability tied to XL launch/mix; commercial hiring does not impact gross margin; full-year margin guidance maintained despite front-loaded hiring .
  • U.S. thrombectomy guide conservatism: Despite 24% 1H growth, management kept 20–21% full-year guide to avoid “getting ahead of ourselves” .
  • China/international: Small China order after tariff pause; expectation of easing headwinds and return to intl growth in 2H25 .
  • Thunderbolt timing: Active FDA review; management reiterated strong enthusiasm but refrained from timing commentary .
  • Market share: Management indicated >50% share in DVT and meaningful gains in PE; continued share capture in neuro despite slower market growth .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 comparison: Revenue $339.5M vs $327.4M*; Primary EPS $0.86 vs $0.82*; Gross margin 66.0% vs 66.45%* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implication: Street likely raises FY revenue outlook incrementally following the guide raise; margin estimates may be fine-tuned for mix/sequential cadence given XL and international dynamics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS beat with guide raise should support near-term positive sentiment; slight gross margin miss viewed as mix/launch-timing rather than structural .
  • U.S. VTE momentum remains robust; continued CAVT adoption is driving share gains and higher patient volumes — a core medium-term growth pillar .
  • Ruby XL launch broadens embolization TAM and is margin-accretive; the sales force split should enhance focus and execution across both franchises .
  • Thunderbolt is a key neuro catalyst; near-term approval timing is uncertain, but Red 72 Silver Label is positioning accounts ahead of launch .
  • International normalization (especially China) could provide incremental upside in 2H25 if headwinds ease as guided .
  • Margin trajectory to 70%+ by end-2026 remains intact; expect sequential expansion in 2H25 as mix/productivity improves .
  • Near-term trading setup: Positive on beats and guide raise; watch for STORM-PE data (fall) and any Thunderbolt regulatory updates as stock-moving catalysts .