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    PERMA FIX ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES (PESI)

    PESI Q2 2024: Gen 2 PFAS to Deliver $10M in ’25, $20M in ’26

    Reported on May 12, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$10.21Last close (Aug 7, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$9.71Open (Aug 8, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.50(-4.90%)
    • Diverse PFAS Partnership Strategy: The company has established multiple partnering agreements—with universities, competitors, larger firms, and federal agencies—to accelerate PFAS technology commercialization and drive early revenue, demonstrating a clear strategy to capitalize on this growing market.
    • Long-Term Government Contract Potential: PESI is well positioned as the go-to alternative for treating DFLAW effluent, with contracts expected to span a minimum of 10 years and potentially extend through 2060, ensuring a long-term revenue stream.
    • Significant Upside with Next-Generation PFAS Unit: The anticipated deployment of a Gen 2 PFAS system is projected to generate about $10 million annually in the latter half of 2025 and potentially increase to $20 million annually in 2026, representing a strong growth catalyst for the company.
    • Subcontracting Requirement Pressure: The mandate to subcontract 20% of a $45 billion cumulative task order value could pressure margins and constrain profitability by forcing the company to allocate a significant portion of work to third parties.
    • Extended Production and Delivery Timeline: The process for finalizing and delivering new systems may take 12 weeks after contract signing plus installation time (potentially up to 4–5 months total), introducing risks of delays that could negatively impact revenue recognition and operational efficiency.
    1. Gen 2 Revenue
      Q: What are Gen 2 revenue targets?
      A: Management expects the Gen 2 system to generate about $10 million annually in late 2025, potentially rising to $20 million in 2026, reflecting a cautious but promising outlook.

    2. DFLAW Volumes
      Q: What are initial DFLAW volumes?
      A: DFLAW is anticipated to start hot commissioning in summer 2025, with early operations likely producing a couple of million dollars monthly as volumes gradually ramp up.

    3. Tank Waste Extraction
      Q: When will tank waste extraction begin?
      A: The design calls for approximately 3.5M gallons/year of waste, with operations starting in December 2025 and our expected share at around half that volume over 15 years.

    4. Settlement Agreement
      Q: How does the settlement affect DFLAW?
      A: The rates are set through WRPS, ensuring DFLAW operates with a long-term commitment through 2060 and a minimum engagement of 10 years, reinforcing a stable revenue foundation.

    5. PFAS Q4 Revenue
      Q: What PFAS revenue is expected in Q4?
      A: Forecasts are conservative, anticipating close to $1 million in Q4 from PFAS operations, based on processing roughly 700 gallons per day.

    6. PFAS Partnerships
      Q: What partnerships are in place for PFAS?
      A: Management has established collaborations with universities, complementary competitors, large firms, and federal agencies to build a robust PFAS treatment program.

    7. Capital Investments
      Q: What CapEx is planned?
      A: Planned capital expenditures total around $11 million for upgrading systems across PFAS and other facilities, alongside short-term maintenance allocations.

    8. Backlog Trends
      Q: How is the backlog evolving?
      A: There is a clear uptick with strong receipt trends in Q3, multiple service bids underway, and expectations for improved revenue by Q4 moving into next year.

    9. Richland Readiness
      Q: Is the Richland plant ready?
      A: New system designs and permit modifications are in progress at Richland, positioning the facility to handle higher volumes by 2026.

    10. RTO Repair
      Q: What was the RTO repair cost?
      A: The Florida plant’s RTO repair was handled as a maintenance expense of about $100K, allowing operations to resume smoothly.

    11. PFAS Licensing
      Q: Could PFAS technology be licensed?
      A: Licensing is being considered for after 2025 once the Gen 2 system is fully proven and performance data is solidified.

    12. OSMS Update
      Q: Any update on OSMS?
      A: There is still no new information on OSMS, with delays continuing and details remaining undisclosed.

    13. International Opportunities
      Q: What’s the status internationally?
      A: Efforts in Europe are progressing with bids in Hungary, Norway, and Italy, while new projects in Canada and Mexico are expected to start shortly.

    14. Hanford Timeline
      Q: Any changes in Hanford timing?
      A: Despite minor cold commissioning delays, hot commissioning for Hanford remains on track as DOE shows strong optimism for progress.

    15. Trucking Permits
      Q: Are permits required for trucking waste?
      A: Yes, shipping untreated radioactive liquid waste requires permits at state and local levels, highlighting higher risks compared to rail transport.

    16. ITDC Legal Impact
      Q: What about the ITDC lawsuit?
      A: The lawsuit may influence procurement timing, but it is unlikely to affect the DFLAW startup since Bechtel is managing its operations.

    17. Small Business Requirement
      Q: What’s the small business quota?
      A: At least 20% of the cumulative value under the ITDC must be subcontracted to small businesses, which benefits PESI.

    18. U.K. Plant Update
      Q: What is the U.K. plant status?
      A: Discussions with Westinghouse are ongoing, with the aim to establish a U.K. facility within about 18 months, subject to evolving market conditions.

    19. Gen 2 Fabrication Time
      Q: How fast can Gen 2 be built?
      A: Once the design is finalized, the Gen 2 unit can be delivered and installed in roughly 12 weeks from contract sign-off.

    Research analysts covering PERMA FIX ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES.