PESI Q3 2024: Sees $3-5M PFAS revenue in 2025, $8M backlog
- PFAS Treatment Rollout: The company is progressing with its PFAS treatment technology, anticipating $3-5 million in revenue in 2025, with an operational commercial unit now in place and plans to optimize capacity and margins further.
- Stable Operational Backlog and Improved Efficiency: Management highlighted a stable waste receipts outlook into Q4 and Q1, maintaining an $8 million backlog that can support near-term operations, alongside continued improvements in constraints at key facilities.
- Robust Contract and International Opportunity Pipeline: Strong progress in securing multiple contracts—including international projects in Mexico, Canada, and Germany—along with potential large-scale opportunities like the ITDC contract and new DOE procurements, positions the firm for diversified revenue growth.
- Limited Operating Margin Upside: Management is conservatively assuming typical margins despite opportunities from chemical recycling, implying that any future margin expansion is uncertain and subject to execution risk.
- Reliance on Cost-Saving Initiatives: The bear case could argue that the anticipated gains from recycling chemicals to lower operating costs may not materialize, leaving margins vulnerable to cost pressures.
- Execution Risk Underlying Margin Improvements: The fact that management is basing planning on current margins rather than projecting superior performance could signal that any unexpected operational disruptions or market challenges might keep margins flat or even deteriorate.
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PFAS Outlook
Q: PFAS revenue and margin prospects?
A: Management is cautiously optimistic about PFAS, projecting $3–5 million in revenue for 2025 as they optimize operations and scale up treatment capacity, though details on related projects like USS Enterprise and grouting remain fluid due to competitive and protest factors. -
Near‐Term Outlook
Q: How will Q4 and early 2025 perform?
A: The near-term outlook is positive with more stable waste receipts and a solid backlog setting up a better Q4 and smoother transition into Q1 of next year, reflecting operational stability. -
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Q: What’s the update on balance sheet and capacity?
A: Management reports a strong balance sheet with low debt and healthy working capital, alongside plans to invest further as capacity expands at key facilities like Hanford. -
TRU Waste Positioning
Q: How are you positioned on TRU waste?
A: As the sole commercial provider in this niche, they’re processing TRU waste—making between $500K–$1M monthly at Hanford—with expectations for growth as additional sites begin shipping. -
Hanford Grouting
Q: What are the plans for supplemental LAW grouting?
A: Recognizing limited capacity at the DOE DFLAW facility, management noted plans for grouting at West area tank farms to process supplemental LAW at around 3 million gallons per year, aiming to address a significantly larger waste volume over time. -
PFAS Pricing
Q: What’s the treatment cost per PFAS gallon?
A: Pricing is tiered by concentration, with low levels fetching around $10–$15 per gallon and concentrated waste reaching $45–$50 per gallon, indicating that volume and concentration greatly influence economics. -
PFAS Margins
Q: How attractive are PFAS operating margins?
A: While the margins are expected to be in line with typical waste treatment, there is potential for improvement via chemical recycling, but planning is based on standard profitability levels. -
International Projects
Q: What progress on international opportunities?
A: They have secured a contract at Mexico’s Laguna Verde reactor and expect shipments from Germany beginning December, totaling roughly $7 million in revenue between Q4 and Q2, boosting their international footprint. -
USS Enterprise Clarification
Q: Where will USS Enterprise material be treated?
A: Management clarified that while dismantling is underway, the material isn’t destined exclusively for Hanford; it may be processed at other commercial facilities based on the technical approach. -
Deferred Tax Write-Off
Q: Why the deferred tax asset write-off?
A: The write-off is a conservative measure reflecting recent operating losses under strict GAAP rules, essentially serving as a reserve without impacting actual cash flow.
Research analysts covering PERMA FIX ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES.