PG
Paramount Group, Inc. (PGRE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Core FFO per share was $0.17, a $0.01 beat vs consensus, driven by strong New York leasing; GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.05 given higher operating and interest expense .
- Revenue performance was resilient: total revenues of $187.0M vs S&P Global consensus of $177.0M, a clear beat; GAAP EPS (-$0.05) missed consensus (-$0.02) while FFO/share ($0.17) exceeded consensus ($0.158) *.
- FY25 Core FFO guidance was reaffirmed at $0.51–$0.57 per share; operating assumptions were raised: leasing activity to 900k–1.1M sf and year-end same-store leased occupancy to 84.4%–86.4% (midpoint +50 bps) .
- Leasing momentum accelerated: 283,874 sf signed (PGRE share 186,447 sf) at $76.52 psf with 12.9-year WALT; same-store leased occupancy rose 140 bps q/q to 86.2% .
- Capital markets actions support flexibility: 45% interest sold in 900 Third Avenue (~$95M net proceeds) and, post-quarter, sale of 25% interest in One Front Street ($255M valuation, $11.5M net proceeds, seller financing at 5.50%)—supporting repositioning plans and balance sheet liquidity .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Robust leasing drove occupancy higher: same-store leased occupancy increased 140 bps q/q to 86.2%, with 278k sf in NYC; “We executed leases totaling approximately 284,000 square feet, marking our strongest first quarter of leasing since 2019” .
- High-profile wins: Kirkland & Ellis expanded to 179k sf at 900 Third Avenue, lifting building leased occupancy from 68.9% to 90.2%; Benesch signed 121k sf at 1301 Sixth Avenue, taking the asset to 90% leased .
- Guidance confidence: Management reaffirmed FY25 Core FFO $0.51–$0.57 and raised leasing and occupancy operating assumptions; “Based on year-to-date results…we are increasing our leasing guidance to 900,000–1,100,000 square feet” .
What Went Wrong
- Same-store performance softness: Same-store NOI declined 5.4% YoY and same-store Cash NOI fell 4.1% YoY, reflecting lease roll and San Francisco pressures .
- GAAP earnings headwind: Diluted GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.05 due to higher operating and interest expense, and lower fee income vs prior year .
- San Francisco drag and heavy 2025 roll: SF same-store leased fell 150 bps q/q to 82.3%; ~490k sf (27.7% at share) expires in 2025, ~80% from Google/JPMorgan, likely pressuring near-term occupancy before improvement later .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown (Q1 2025):
Key KPIs (Q1 2025):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We executed leases totaling approximately 284,000 square feet, marking our strongest first quarter of leasing since 2019… core FFO of $0.17 per share for the first quarter, exceeding consensus by $0.01” — Albert Behler (CEO) .
- “Kirkland & Ellis… totaling 179,000 square feet… improving the leased occupancy of the building… from 68.9% to 90.2%” — Albert Behler (CEO) .
- “We are increasing our leasing guidance to now be between 900,000 square feet and 1.1 million square feet… [and] increasing our same-store leased occupancy guidance to 84.4%–86.4%” — Wilbur Paes (COO/CFO) .
- “Upper floors… command rents in excess of $120 a foot [at One Market]” — Peter Brindley (EVP, Head of Real Estate) .
- “More than half of the AI-based tenants that transacted in the first quarter are new to the market” — Peter Brindley .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital allocation: Management is “disciplined and opportunistic,” open to transactions like 900 Third Avenue to enhance flexibility and shareholder value .
- San Francisco leasing: Law firm backfill on “Google floors” at One Market with upper floors “in excess of $120/ft”; broader pipeline ~7M sf with tenants of varying sizes, including AI .
- Large expirations and backfill: Active paper trading for Visa (portion backfill in advanced discussions), Morgan Lewis, Autodesk in 2026; Showtime block (~250k sf) at 1633 Broadway seeing multi-tenant interest .
- Guidance mechanics: Same-store NOI guidance unchanged despite higher leasing due to commencement timing; management expects potential refinement “to the better” as year progresses .
- NYC pricing power: Scarcity on upper floors in Midtown provides rent push opportunities; tenants engaging earlier driven by “fear of loss” .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Street will likely raise leasing/occupancy assumptions and revenue run-rate given Q1 beats and raised operating assumptions, but GAAP EPS may remain pressured near-term by SF lease roll and interest expense headwinds .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Leasing outperformance and occupancy gains in NYC underpin the reaffirmed FY25 Core FFO guide; execution on upper-floor pricing supports rent roll-ups over time .
- Q1 delivered a clean FFO/share and revenue beat vs consensus; GAAP EPS miss reflects the REIT reporting construct and interest/operating cost dynamics, not core cash performance *.
- Raised operating assumptions (leasing and occupancy) signal confidence; commencement timing tempers immediate same-store NOI guidance, but trajectory is positive .
- San Francisco remains a near-term drag (82.3% same-store leased; heavy 2025 expirations), yet AI and legal demand plus civic engagement point to medium-term recovery catalysts .
- Balance sheet flexibility improved via minority sales (900 Third, One Front) and ample cash/restricted cash (~$499.3M at quarter end excluding non-core debt); 2026 maturities (notably 1301 Sixth) are being proactively de-risked .
- Dividend remains suspended, prioritizing balance sheet strength and capex/leasing investments; reinitiation likely contingent on sustained NOI recovery and leverage normalization .
- Near-term trading: Favorable setup given leasing momentum and beats; watch SF lease roll headlines. Medium-term thesis: Flight to quality in NYC, amenity-led differentiation (Paramount Club), and policy tailwinds in SF to drive NOI stabilization and eventual growth .
Additional Data Points and Transactions
- Q1 portfolio operations: Same-store NOI $87.34M (-5.4% YoY), same-store Cash NOI $84.12M (-4.1% YoY); PGRE share of Adjusted EBITDAre $77.9M .
- Benesch lease (121k sf, 16.5-year term) lifts 1301 Avenue of the Americas to 90% leased, supported by Paramount Club amenity offering .
- Post-quarter One Front Street 25% sale at $255M valuation; seller financing $40.5M at 5.50% fixed; $11.5M net proceeds retained .
Notes: Where noted with an asterisk (*), values retrieved from S&P Global.