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PG

Paramount Group, Inc. (PGRE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Core FFO per share of $0.17 beat Street by roughly $0.03; revenue materially topped consensus, while GAAP EPS was a slight miss. Management raised full-year Core FFO, leasing volume, and year-end occupancy guidance, citing better portfolio operations and lower G&A .
  • Same-store leased occupancy fell 80 bps sequentially to 85.4%, driven by Google’s scheduled move-out at One Market Plaza; mark-to-market on second-gen space was +2.6% GAAP but -5.4% cash, reflecting elevated concessions to secure long-term tenancies .
  • Liquidity remains strong ($535M PGRE share of cash/restricted), with no core maturities until 2026; refinancing of the $860M 1301 Avenue of the Americas loan is underway, supported by >97% leased occupancy and functioning debt markets .
  • Strategic alternatives review remains active; management declined further commentary and said the ongoing SEC inquiry (historical disclosures) is not expected to impact timing .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: guidance raise and leasing momentum in NYC, signs of stabilization and AI-driven demand in SF, plus potential update on 1301 refinancing next quarter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We delivered a strong second quarter with a core FFO of $0.17 per share, exceeding consensus by $0.03,” supported by robust leasing and operational discipline .
    • Raised FY25 Core FFO ($0.55–$0.59), leasing (1.2–1.4M sf), and YE same-store leased % (86.9–88.9%), reflecting better-than-expected operations and lower G&A .
    • Balanced leasing across markets (404,710 sf; 52% NY/48% SF) with initial rent >$90/sf and 12.9-year terms; pipeline >275K sf in active stages .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Same-store leased occupancy declined 80 bps q/q to 85.4% on Google’s move-out; SF same-store leased fell 720 bps q/q to 75.1% .
    • Cash mark-to-market on second-gen space was -5.4%, indicating net effective rent pressure amid concessions to secure long-term deals, particularly in SF .
    • GAAP net loss widened to $19.8M (-$0.09/share), including $7.5M severance/accelerated equity awards; net loss per share guidance moved lower (more negative) given non-core items and slightly higher interest expense .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total revenues ($USD thousands)$187,408 $187,019 $177,045
Net (loss) income to common ($USD thousands)$(7,819) $(10,026) $(19,785)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.04) $(0.05) $(0.09)
FFO per diluted share ($USD)$0.20 $0.17 $0.12
Core FFO per diluted share ($USD)$0.20 $0.17 $0.17
Same Store Cash NOI – PGRE share ($USD thousands)$84,168 $84,121 $84,616
Same Store NOI – PGRE share ($USD thousands)$88,306 $92,369 $84,266
Same-store leased occupancy (weighted avg, at share)86.3% 86.2% 85.4%

Segment breakdown (NOI and Cash NOI)

Segment Metric ($USD thousands)Q2 2024Q2 2025
PGRE share of NOI – New York$63,396 $58,023
PGRE share of NOI – San Francisco$28,158 $26,102
PGRE share of Cash NOI – New York$58,084 $56,584
PGRE share of Cash NOI – San Francisco$29,554 $27,891

KPIs and leasing

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025
Total square feet leased283,874 404,710
PGRE share of leased sf186,447 255,621
Initial rent ($/sf)$76.52 $91.93
Weighted avg lease term (years)12.9 12.9
TI + commissions ($/sf per annum)$13.74 $15.61
Second-gen mark-to-market (GAAP)+7.1% +2.6%
Second-gen mark-to-market (cash)-1.5% -5.4%
Same-store leased occupancy (at share)86.2% 85.4%

Vs. Wall Street consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD millions)162.165*177.045 +14.880 (+9.2%)*
EPS (GAAP) ($)-0.08*-0.09 -0.01*
FFO / Share (REIT) ($)0.138*0.12 -0.018*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Management additionally highlighted Core FFO/share of $0.17 beat consensus by ~$0.03, consistent with commentary on the call .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Core FFO per shareFY 2025$0.51 – $0.57 $0.55 – $0.59 Raised
Net loss per share (GAAP)FY 2025$(0.36) – $(0.30) $(0.37) – $(0.33) Lowered (more negative)
Leasing activityFY 20250.9M – 1.1M sf 1.2M – 1.4M sf Raised
YE same-store leased % (at share)FY 202584.4% – 86.4% 86.9% – 88.9% Raised
Same-store Cash NOI changeFY 2025(11%) – (7%) (10%) – (6%) Improved
Same-store NOI change (GAAP)FY 2025(13%) – (9%) (12%) – (8%) Improved
General & administrative ($000)FY 2025$67,000 – $64,000 $62,500 – $60,500 Lowered
Interest & debt expense ($000)FY 2025$145,000 – $142,000 $145,500 – $143,500 Slightly higher
Fee & other income ($000)FY 2025$(28,000) – $(30,000) $(30,500) – $(31,500) Higher
NOI ($000)FY 2025$304,000 – $311,000 $306,500 – $311,500 Slightly higher
Cash NOI ($000)FY 2025$296,000 – $301,000 $300,000 – $304,000 Higher

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Flight to quality (NYC)Paramount Club cited as differentiator; rising demand in Midtown core submarkets NYC same-store leased up 70 bps q/q to 88.1%; pricing power on upper floors; concessions stabilizing Improving
SF market stabilization & AI demandAI-led activity, tours up; planning amenities at 1 Market/1 Front; significant 2025 expirations (Google/JPM) 193K sf leased in SF; tours accelerating; multiple leases out; occupancy down on Google move-out Gradual recovery, still mixed
Concessions & net effective rentsQ4 spike driven by turnkey lease; expectation of stabilization; free rent elevated near-term TI % of initial rent eased vs prior quarters; concessions stable; expecting net effective rent uplift in NYC Stabilizing
Balance sheet & liquidityJV sale of 900 Third; credit facility modifications; strong cash ~$535M cash/restricted (PGRE share); no core maturities until 2026; 1301 refi in process Strong/liquid
Strategic alternatives & SEC inquiryNot discussed in Q4’24; initial FY25 guidance provided Review active; SEC inquiry on historical disclosures not expected to affect timing Ongoing
Leasing pipeline~350K sf leases out post-Q4; robust NYC pipeline >275K sf active; mix of vacant and upcoming expirations; balanced between NY and SF Robust

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered a strong second quarter with a core FFO of $0.17 per share, exceeding consensus by $0.03…driven by robust leasing activity, continued operational discipline, and a focused approach to capital allocation” — Albert Behler, CEO .
  • “Our New York portfolio is now 88.1% leased…we are exercising pricing power…starting to push rents…concessions have remained fairly flat” — Peter Brindley, EVP Real Estate .
  • “We ended the quarter with approximately $534 million in cash and restricted cash…no core debt maturities until 2026…on track to refinance 1301 Avenue of the Americas” — Ermelinda Berberi, CFO .
  • “The Board’s review of strategic alternatives remains active…we will not be commenting further…[the SEC inquiry] is reviewing certain historical disclosures…I don’t expect…any significant impact to the strategic review.” — Tom Hennessy & Albert Behler .

Q&A Highlights

  • 1633 Broadway leasing and rents: asking rents $70–$90/sf; active paper on Showtime block; amenities and retail performing well (Din Tai Fung cited) .
  • Concessions: NYC concessions stabilized; anticipate free rent to normalize and TI to trend down as market tightens; SF TIs elevated in select long-term deals to stoke momentum .
  • SF demand: increased tours and proposals; AI tenants and professional services contributing; backfill plans for Google and JPMorgan underway with leases out .
  • Financing: 1301 Avenue of the Americas expected to refinance smoothly given asset profile and leasing success; debt markets functioning .
  • Strategic review and SEC: active process; SEC inquiry on historical disclosures not expected to affect timing .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat: Actual $177.0M vs consensus $162.2M; beat of ~$14.9M (+9.2%)* .
  • EPS (GAAP): Actual -$0.09 vs consensus -$0.08; miss of $0.01*.
  • FFO/share (NAREIT): Actual $0.12 vs consensus $0.138; miss of $0.018*.
  • Management highlighted Core FFO/share beat: $0.17 exceeded consensus by ~$0.03 .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus forward (for context): FFO/share ~0.116 (Q3–Q4’25), GAAP EPS (-$0.08 to -$0.09), revenue ~$168–169M next quarters*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core FFO/share beat and FY25 guidance raise are positive catalysts; management cites stronger operations and lower G&A as drivers .
  • Revenue outperformance vs consensus underscores leasing momentum and fee/other income strength; monitor sustainability amid SF occupancy headwinds .
  • NYC continues to tighten in prime submarkets; upper floors scarce, enabling rent pushes; watch net effective rent trajectory as concessions stabilize .
  • SF is recalibrating; near-term occupancy risk from expirations (Google/JPM), but AI/professional services demand and amenity upgrades support gradual recovery .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity provide flexibility (PGRE share cash/restricted ~$535M); no core maturities until 2026; upcoming 1301 refinancing a potential de-risking update .
  • Strategic alternatives review ongoing; while timing/terms are unknown, process could surface value realization or portfolio actions .
  • Non-core items (severance/equity acceleration) impacted GAAP loss; Core FFO remains the key REIT earnings lens; track non-core expense normalization and interest expense trajectory .

Appendix: Additional Portfolio and Operations Data

  • Same-store Cash NOI change: +0.5% y/y in Q2; -1.8% ytd; Same-store NOI (GAAP) -4.6% y/y in Q2; -5.0% ytd .
  • YTD leasing through June: 688,584 sf (PGRE share 442,068) at $85.43 initial rent; GAAP MTM +3.7%, cash MTM -4.5% .
  • Transactions: sold 25% interest in One Front Street at $255M gross valuation; $40.5M seller financing; $11.5M net proceeds; credit facility terminated post-sale .