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Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2025 revenue was $534.5M and diluted EPS was $0.24 GAAP; adjusted EPS was $0.69. Relative to S&P Global consensus, EPS modestly beat, while revenue missed; consensus EPS $0.683 and revenue $545.8M. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals: revenue and EPS .
- Adjusted EBITDA was $127.2M (23.8% margin). Consensus EBITDA was $128.3M; company reports Adjusted EBITDA while consensus is EBITDA, implying a slight shortfall on a non-like-for-like basis. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual Adjusted EBITDA .
- Management flagged execution missteps by prior leadership (marketing, menu, remodels, game investment) and outlined “back to basics” actions; March–April trends improved meaningfully, with sequential SSS recovery from February through April and continued progress into June .
- FY25 outlook reiterated: capex < $220M, pre-opening ~$20M, cash interest $130–$140M; plan to open 10–12 new stores plus one relocation; management focused on converting operating cash flow to free cash flow. Liquidity ended Q4 at $510.4M; net total leverage ratio 2.8x .
- Catalyst: visible operational reset (TV back in mix, Eat & Play Combo push, new game slate including Human Crane), remodel discipline (lower hurdle rates), and improving traffic drive near-term sentiment; evidence of sequential comp improvement supports potential estimate revisions once sustained .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Reintroduction of TV advertising and return to historical promotion cadence (including Eat & Play Combo) driving traffic and attach; management noted improving March–April trends and further progress in June .
- New game rollout (Human Crane and six premium titles) showing strong early performance with expected payback <6 months; supports refresh cadence and experiential appeal .
- Strong liquidity and capital access: $510.4M available liquidity at Q4 end; sale-leaseback proceeds of $111.4M in Q4; ability to repurchase shares ($85M in Q4; ~$172M FY24; $23.9M in Q1 FY25) .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 comparable store sales down 9.4% YoY (like-for-like calendar); revenue down 10.8% YoY with a tougher prior-year 53rd week contributing $39.5M to Q4 FY23 baseline .
- GAAP profitability compressed: operating margin 8.3% vs 15.0% prior year; diluted EPS $0.24 vs $0.88; Adjusted EBITDA down 16.2% YoY .
- Execution issues from prior leadership (eliminated TV, overcomplicated promos/menu changes, remodel overspend, deemphasis of new games) pressured brand perception and operations; company now unwinding these changes .
Financial Results
Quarter-over-Quarter Trend (oldest → newest)
Year-over-Year Comparison (Q4)
Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q4 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA; consensus figure reflects EBITDA, not directly like-for-like.
Segment Breakdown (Q4 2025)
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Management also guided to no material changes to working capital as a cash source in FY25 due to Power Card timing dynamics .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Previous leadership... made significant and ill-advised changes to marketing, food and beverage, operations, remodels and games investment... The current leadership team has been systematically unwinding these mistakes and pursuing a back to basics strategy.” — Kevin Sheehan .
- “Results in March and April have notably improved... We expect results to continue to improve in the coming months.” — Kevin Sheehan .
- “We currently expect total capital expenditures to not exceed $220 million... preopening expense of approximately $20 million, interest expense within the range of $130 million to $140 million.” — Darin Harper .
- “Leading the new lineup attractions is our all-new Human Crane... The initial performance has been electric, and we expect to see a less than 6-month payback.” — Kevin Sheehan .
- “We’re moving back towards half [TV], and if we get good returns... we’ll move up from there.” — Kevin Sheehan .
Q&A Highlights
- Sequential improvement: March–April traffic and F&B tickets improved; management “~55% of the way” toward desired performance; calendar timing (spring break/Easter) mixed but near-term weeks favorable .
- Capex/SLB: FY25 net capex guide assumes typical landlord TI and sale-leasebacks; flexibility across buckets, with breakdown deferred; remodels planned at 16 stores in FY25 .
- Value proposition: Testing to extend time-of-play on games; driving F&B attach via kiosks and Eat & Play Combo upgrades (~90% upgrade rate) .
- Competitive landscape: Management views recent top-line pressure as mostly internal execution rather than category competition; pursuing lunch tests and seven-day traffic initiatives (e.g., $11.99 lunch with timed play) .
- Remodel ROI: Lowering hurdle rates to mid–high single digits via value engineering; TV mix targeting ~50% initially .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2025 EPS modestly beat consensus: $0.69 vs $0.683*. Revenue missed: $534.5M vs $545.8M*. EBITDA (consensus 128.3M*) compared to company-reported Adjusted EBITDA of $127.2M; metrics are not strictly comparable. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals .
- Consensus breadth: 7 EPS estimates* and 10 revenue estimates* for the quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Sequential comp improvement and early success of new games/marketing reset may drive upward revisions to revenue and EPS if trends persist; near-term margin trajectory depends on remodel discipline and F&B/menu optimization .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term setup: Narrative pivot to “back to basics” with tangible actions (TV back, promo simplification, menu restore, game refresh) and improving weekly trends is a potential positive catalyst if sustained in Q1–Q2 prints .
- Margin path: EBITDA margin compressed YoY; disciplined capex and remodel ROI (lower hurdle rates) plus attach initiatives provide levers to stabilize/improve margins without materially adding SG&A .
- Cash flow and capital allocation: Strong liquidity, sale-leaseback proceeds, and ongoing buybacks (authorization ~$104M remaining) support total shareholder return amid operating reset .
- Watch KPIs: SSS trajectory (monthly cadence), Eat & Play attach, Human Crane payback and game ROI, TV/digital ROAS, and store-level productivity; these will shape revenue recovery and estimate revisions .
- Risks: Macro/tariffs and lower-income consumer sensitivity; execution risk in remodels/menu/pricing changes; potential non-GAAP adjustments (impairments, property transactions) affecting reported EPS volatility .
- Strategic optionality: Franchise expansion (India) and pipeline of 10–12 new stores plus a relocation provide unit growth; lunch/daypart tests could unlock incremental traffic on underutilized periods .
- Trading lens: Expect stock to react to evidence of sustained comp recovery and margin stabilization; near-term beats likely anchored on sequential improvement and operational KPIs, while any slippage in comps or remodel ROI could pressure sentiment .