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PL

Piedmont Lithium Inc. (PLL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record operational quarter: Q4 2024 shipments reached ~55.7k dmt at $818/dmt realized price ($909 on SC6 eq), driving revenue of $45.6M and gross profit of $6.8M (15.0% margin) despite a soft lithium market .
  • Profitability improved quarter-over-quarter with higher volumes; GAAP net loss narrowed to $11.1M (-$0.55 EPS) driven by merger-related transaction costs ($5.5M) and restructuring charges ($3.2M); adjusted net loss was $3.6M (-$0.17 adj. EPS) .
  • Operational execution at NAL remained strong: 50,922 dmt produced, 90% mill utilization, 68% recovery; cash operating costs ex inventory reached $709/ton, supporting price realization and margin resilience .
  • 2025 outlook guides shipments of 113–130k dmt and reduced project spend (CapEx $6–9M; JV advances $7–13M); cost savings plan achieved $14M annual run-rate vs $10M target, positioning for downcycle durability .
  • Strategic catalyst: definitive all-stock merger with Sayona Mining (expected mid-2025), aiming to create the largest current lithium producer in North America with $15–20M annual synergies and stronger funding support .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record shipments and industry-leading realized pricing: Q4 shipments ~55.7k dmt, $818/dmt realized ($909 SC6 eq), reflecting hedging and commingled shipments strategy to reduce transport costs; “another quarter of strong price realizations” .
  • NAL operations sustained high performance: 50,922 dmt produced, 90% utilization, 68% recovery; management highlighted “NAL continues to operate at an impressive level,” supporting volume and cost improvements .
  • Cost discipline accelerated: achieved $14M annual savings (workforce reduced 62%, third-party spend lower), enabling downcycle resilience and reduced JV/CapEx outflows .

What Went Wrong

  • Continued GAAP losses: Q4 GAAP net loss of $11.1M (-$0.55 EPS) due to $5.5M merger transaction costs and $3.2M restructuring charges; adjusted EBITDA still negative at -$3.7M .
  • Price/macro headwinds: Management cautioned contango narrowing and contract pricing lags could limit future realized price outperformance; lithium market remains volatile with uncertain 2025 recovery timing .
  • Project deferrals likely: Ewoyaa FID and Carolina advancement paced to market conditions; management indicated new greenfield investments are unlikely at current spodumene prices ($700–$900/t) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.2 $27.7 $45.6
Shipments (dmt thousands)14.0 31.5 55.7
Realized Price ($/dmt)$945 $878 ($976 SC6 eq) $818 ($909 SC6 eq)
Realized Cost of Sales ($/dmt)$900 —$696
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.69 -$0.86 -$0.55
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)——$6.8
Gross Profit Margin (%)——15.0%
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$59.0 $64.4 $87.8
MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Shipments (dmt thousands)14.3 55.7
Revenue ($USD Millions)-$7.3 $45.6
Diluted EPS ($)-$1.32 -$0.55
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)-$1.23 -$0.17
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)-$18.1 $6.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$24.4 -$3.7

Segment/Operations

ItemQ4 2024
NAL Concentrate Produced (dmt thousands, 100%)50.9
NAL Concentrate Shipped (dmt thousands, 100%)66.0
Piedmont Concentrate Shipped (dmt thousands, 100%)55.7
NAL Mill Utilization (%)90
NAL Lithium Recovery (%)68
Cash Operating Cost ex inventory ($/ton)$709 (Q4’24)

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
SC6 Equivalent Realized Price ($/ton)$976 $909
Li2O Grade (%)~5.4 5.4

Notes: Q2/Q3 gross margin figures not disclosed in transcripts; Q4 margins per press release .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Shipments (dmt thousands)Q4 202441–55 Actual 55.7 Met high end
Shipments (dmt thousands)Q1 2025—25–30 New
Shipments (dmt thousands)Full Year 2025—113–130 New
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)Full Year 2025— (FY24 actual $11) $6–9 Lower vs FY24
Investments in/Advances to Affiliates ($USD Millions)Full Year 2025$27–29 (FY24 guide) / $26 actual $7–13 Lower vs FY24
Cost Savings Plan (Annual Run-Rate)FY 2024$10 target $14 achieved Raised/Achieved

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (8/8/24)Q3 2024 (11/12/24)Q4 2024 (2/20/25)Trend
Commercial strategy / pricingInitiated refined H2 strategy; contango hedging and commingling to boost realized prices Industry-leading SC6 realized price via hedging and larger shipments Strong realized prices again; caution contango narrowing may limit outperformance Effective, but future uplift may moderate
Shipping/logistics cost mgmtPlan to co-ship to save up to $60/t Deferral to co-mingle saving ~$1.3–$1.4M Ongoing commingling with JV to improve profitability Structural cost focus sustained
Tariffs/macro——Potential 10% tariff on critical minerals; impact limited due to non-U.S. destinations; customer flexibility Monitoring policy risk
NAL operationsSteady-state achieved; rising production, recoveries, utilization Record production >50k dmt; 91% utilization 50,922 dmt; 90% utilization; 68% recovery; $709/t cash costs ex inventory Stable high performance
Cost savingsAchieved $10M run-rate savings Expanded plan; workforce reductions 48% YTD; expect further $14M savings achieved; 62% workforce reduction; restructuring costs Elevated savings realized
Regulatory / project permitsCarolina mining permit; evaluating 45X economics; DOE ATVM pre-app restarts Ewoyaa EPA permit; Mine Operating Permit in Oct; Carolina air/water permits targeted Ewoyaa MOP secured; Carolina air permit/stormwater ongoing; 45X supports economics Permitting progress sustained
M&A / consolidation—Industry consolidation as positive; funding strategy Definitive merger with Sayona; synergies $15–$20M; RCF committed Strategic combination catalyst
Market demand / ESSCyclical view; growth intact; ESS rising EV sales growth; ESS +46% YoY ESS could be ~34% of demand by 2030 (CATL); long-term bullish Strengthening medium/long-term demand

Management Commentary

  • “NAL continues to operate at an impressive level… While the lithium market remains challenging, we were pleased with the consistent performance achieved during the December-end quarter.” — Keith Phillips, CEO .
  • “Our realized price of $909 on an SA6 equivalent basis once again led the industry… the narrowing contango… means our comparatively strong price realizations may not always be achievable.” — Keith Phillips .
  • “We shipped approximately 55,700 dry metric tons… recognized $45.6 million in revenue… GAAP net loss was $11.1 million… adjusted net loss of $3.6 million.” — Michael White, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs risk: Potential 10% U.S. critical mineral tariffs would be borne by U.S. importers; majority of JV shipments not destined for U.S.; customer could divert to other geographies to avoid tariffs .
  • Supply/demand outlook: Management expects continued volatility with medium/long-term bullish view; plans on spot-price budgeting for a challenging 2025; ESS demand likely to become a major lithium driver .
  • Merger timeline: Target mid-2025; main hurdle is SEC review; positive indications on Investment Canada; CFIUS and HSR not expected to be issues; shareholder votes required .
  • Ewoyaa progress: Ratification expected in 2025; funding likely via debt/DFI and offtake financing; FID contingent on stronger market pricing; project seen as fast-ramp, low CapEx per ton .
  • Quebec processing partnerships: Emphasis on local conversion to save transport costs; potential partners like Rio Tinto; NAL brownfield expansion seen as low CapEx per ton opportunity .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for PLL were unavailable via our data connection at this time; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus consensus for Q4 2024 (Revenue/EPS/EBITDA). Values retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible due to a mapping issue.
  • Observationally, PLL delivered strong volume and realized pricing in Q4; in absence of consensus, modelers should update revenue/EPS with $45.6M and -$0.55 respectively and reflect continued negative adjusted EBITDA (-$3.7M) while considering lower 2025 spend and shipment guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Volume-led quarter: Q4 shipments of 55.7k dmt at resilient realized pricing improved revenue and gross profit; sustained NAL performance underpins 2025 shipment guidance .
  • Downcycle positioning: $14M annual cost savings achieved, materially reducing OpEx, CapEx, and JV spend; cash increased to $87.8M by year-end, aided by facility/financing .
  • Strategic merger: Sayona combination (mid-2025 target) enhances scale, synergies ($15–$20M), and funding flexibility; potential NAL brownfield expansion is a key medium-term lever .
  • Policy tailwinds/risks: 45X manufacturing credit supports Carolina economics; tariff risk manageable given shipment geography and customer flexibility .
  • 2025 setup: Shipments guided to 113–130k dmt with reduced CapEx ($6–9M) and JV advances ($7–13M); commingled shipping to mitigate freight and support margins .
  • Project pacing to price: Ewoyaa and Carolina advancement tied to price recovery; expect debt/offtake funding strategies to minimize equity dilution when market improves .
  • Trading implications: Near-term narrative favors operational execution, cost control, and merger path; watch realized pricing relative to contango narrowing, tariff developments, and SEC merger milestones for stock reaction catalysts .