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DD

DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC (PLOW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 performance: Net Sales $115.1M (+20.3% YoY), gross margin 24.5% (+470bps), adjusted EBITDA $9.4M, and record adjusted diluted EPS $0.09; GAAP diluted EPS was breakeven .
  • Solutions delivered its fourth straight record quarter (Net Sales $78.6M, adj. EBITDA $9.1M, margin 11.6%), while Attachments rebounded on stronger parts/accessories and ice-control sales (Net Sales $36.5M, adj. EBITDA $0.3M) .
  • Guidance maintained for FY25: Net Sales $610–$650M, adjusted EBITDA $75–$95M, adjusted EPS $1.30–$2.10, tax rate ~24–25%, citing elongated replacement cycle, tariff uncertainty, and mixed commercial demand despite robust municipal backlog .
  • Key catalysts: revenue/EBITDA beats vs consensus, tariff mitigation strategy with predominantly U.S. supply chain, near-record backlog and capacity expansion plans; however, maintained guidance and preseason demand uncertainty temper the upside narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Solutions segment strength: fourth consecutive record quarter; Net Sales $78.6M (+9.5% YoY), adj. EBITDA $9.1M (+51.7% YoY), margin 11.6% (+320bps) .
  • Weather tailwinds and product momentum: “snowfall… ~30% higher than the previous winter… significantly higher than average ice events,” driving higher P&A and ice-control equipment sales; redesigned hopper spreaders resonating .
  • Balance sheet and liquidity: leverage ratio down to 2.1x (vs 3.3x), interest expense down 32% YoY to $2.4M after sale-leaseback and debt reduction; operating cash usage improved to $(1.3)M from $(21.6)M YoY .

What Went Wrong

  • Attachments still subdued: elongated replacement cycle and mixed plow demand by geography keep Attachments adj. EBITDA near breakeven ($0.3M); preseason uncertainty persists .
  • SG&A up $1.9M to $23.4M on higher stock-based compensation tied to performance; tax rate appeared unusual (69.8%) due to near-breakeven GAAP earnings, expected to normalize .
  • Guidance not raised despite beats: management cites lumpy project timing, commercial demand caution, and tariff uncertainty; preseason shipment mix shifts to 55% Q2 / 45% Q3 (vs 65%/35% last year) .

Financial Results

Consolidated quarterly trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($M)$129.4 $143.5 $115.1
Gross Margin %23.9% 24.9% 24.5%
Income from Operations ($M)$45.9 $13.0 $3.2
Net Income ($M)$32.3 $7.9 $0.1
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.36 $0.33 $0.00
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.24 $0.39 $0.09
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$15.3 $18.8 $9.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %11.8% 13.1% 8.2%

Segment breakdown (oldest → newest)

Segment MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Attachments Net Sales ($M)$60.2 $53.8 $36.5
Attachments Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$8.1 $9.0 $0.3
Attachments Adj. EBITDA Margin %13.5% 16.7% 0.9%
Solutions Net Sales ($M)$69.1 $89.8 $78.6
Solutions Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$7.2 $9.8 $9.1
Solutions Adj. EBITDA Margin %10.4% 10.9% 11.6%

KPIs and cash metrics

KPIQ1 2025
Net cash used in operating activities ($M)$(1.337)
Capital expenditures ($M)$2.161
Total inventory ($M)$171.5
Interest expense ($M)$2.384
SG&A ($M)$23.387
Dividend per share (paid)$0.295
Leverage ratio (x)2.1x
Effective tax rate (quarter)69.8% (unusual due to breakeven)

Q1 2025 vs prior year and consensus

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($M)$95.7 $115.067 $107.8*
Primary EPS ($)$(0.37) $0.09*$(0.005)*
EBITDA ($M)$(1.074) (GAAP) $7.025*$4.7*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company-reported GAAP diluted EPS was $0.00 and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.09; SPGI “Primary EPS” here aligns with adjusted reporting in this context .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($M)FY 2025$610–$650 $610–$650 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$75–$95 $75–$95 Maintained
Adjusted EPS ($)FY 2025$1.30–$2.10 $1.30–$2.10 Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 2025~24–25 ~24–25 Maintained
Preseason Shipment Mix (%)2025 Preseason65% Q2 / 35% Q3 (2024 actual) 55% Q2 / 45% Q3 (expectation) Shift to later

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Tariffs & macroLimited explicit guidance; general risk disclosures Domestic footprint: ~95% sales in U.S.; <10% materials sourced outside U.S.; China-sourced <5%; 2025 guidance includes expected exposure; plan to mitigate by YE25 Managed risk; mitigation underway
Supply chain & chassis“Stable to slightly improving supply of chassis” in 2024 outlook Chassis supply stable; backlog near record; booking into 2026; targeted 10% capacity expansion at Henderson by 2026 Strengthening supply; capacity add planned
Product performanceSolutions profitability improvements; cost program benefits Ice events boosted hopper demand; redesigned hopper spreaders gaining traction; new pusher plow line; more product news at SIMA Upcycle in targeted SKUs
Replacement cycleElongated cycle dampening Attachments demand Preseason off to decent start; plows mixed by geography; elongated cycle and tariffs keep caution; Attachments shipments assumed similar to 2023 at midpoint Cautious recovery
Segment marginsSolutions approaching double-digit margins in 2024 Solutions 11.6% record Q1 margin; 2025 roughly similar or slightly better than 2024; long-term low-teens target intact Sustained double-digit aspiration
Capital allocationDebt reduction via sale-leaseback; dividends maintained Open $40M buyback capacity; priority on small/mid M&A within Attachments; dividend stability emphasized M&A optionality; shareholder returns flexible

Management Commentary

  • “We rarely generate a profit in the first quarter… but this year, we produced record revenue and record adjusted EPS” – CEO Mark Van Genderen .
  • Weather context: “snowfall… ~12% below the ten-year average… ~30% higher than the previous winter… significantly higher than average ice events… driving higher sales of ice control equipment” .
  • Solutions momentum: “backlog remains near record levels… municipal sector being a particularly bright spot” .
  • Tariffs stance: “Our operations, supply base, and sales are primarily domestic… guidance reflects the comfort in our ability to offset the impact… we will continue analyzing… less than 10% outside the U.S.” .
  • Capital allocation: “focus… on operational cash generation to cover the dividend… position to consider small- and medium-sized acquisitions… open buybacks right now… $40 million” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Solutions margin trajectory: management reaffirms double-digit to low-teens long-term target; 2025 includes growth investments and some commercial demand uncertainty .
  • Capital allocation priorities: opportunistic M&A in work vehicle attachments; if targets don’t materialize, buybacks/dividend increases considered; $40M repurchase authorization available .
  • Timing effects: some municipal volume pulled into Q1 and a Canadian dealer pull-ahead; not “overly material” but lumpy projects can shift quarter-to-quarter .
  • Tariffs pricing & competition: pricing adjustments in place; Henderson’s U.S. footprint competitively advantaged with municipalities; tariffs embedded in guidance .
  • Capacity expansion: Henderson plans ~10% capacity add in 2026, prudently matched to backlog/contracts .
  • Product pipeline: hopper upgrades performing well; pusher plow line introduced; roadmap focused on efficiency and end-user productivity .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results vs consensus: Revenue $115.067M vs $107.8M* (beat ~6.7%); Primary EPS $0.09* vs $(0.005)* (beat); EBITDA $7.025M* vs $4.7M* (beat). Company-reported GAAP diluted EPS was $0.00 and adjusted diluted EPS $0.09 .
  • Narrative implications: Beat driven by stronger Solutions volumes/price realization and weather-assisted Attachments mix; guidance held given elongated replacement cycle and tariff/commercial uncertainty .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Beat-and-hold quarter; consider positive read-through to Solutions momentum and hopper/P&A demand while respecting preseason variability and tariff overhang .
  • Preseason mix shift: 55% Q2 / 45% Q3 suggests more Q3 contribution than last year; watch plow order cadence by geography and hopper momentum .
  • Tariff mitigation: Domestic footprint and limited China exposure (<5% of direct materials) reduce downside risk; pricing actions in place; monitor policy developments .
  • Margin trajectory: Solutions trending toward low-teens; Attachments lean cost base should leverage volume when replacement cycle normalizes; cost program benefits ongoing .
  • Balance sheet: lower leverage (2.1x) and reduced interest expense enhance flexibility; optionality for M&A and buybacks with $40M authorization .
  • Guidance discipline: maintaining ranges is prudent; upside optionality if preseason and municipal backlog translate to stronger shipments; downside risk from commercial softness/tariffs .
  • Trading lens: narrative favors Solutions strength and weather-assisted Attachments recovery; catalysts include SIMA product news, preseason order updates, tariff clarity, and backlog conversion .