Plug Power - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings, and welcome to the Plug Power Q2 call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press * 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Teal Hoyos, Senior Director of Marketing and Communications. Thank you, Teal. You may begin.

Teal Hoyos (Senior Director, Marketing and Communications)

Thank you. Welcome to the 2023 second quarter earnings call. This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements contain projections of our future results of operations or of our financial position or other forward-looking information. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on forward-looking statements, and such statements should not be read or understood as a guarantee of future performance or results.

Such statements are based upon the current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections, as well as the current beliefs and assumptions of management, and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors, including, but not limited to, the risk factors and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A, Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022. Quarterly results on Form 10-Q and other results we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements speak only of the day in which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call or as a result of new information.

At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug's CEO, Andy Marsh.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thank you, Teal, and thank you everyone for joining the Plug second quarter conference call. Plugs in the process of developing an unparalleled hydrogen fuel cell platform. This encompasses a diverse array of products, extensive international collaborations, backing from government and entities, financial partners, and our robust infrastructure. Our second quarter outcome reveals noticeable growth in several of our recently launched products, particularly in our cryogenic sector, which garnered $69 million in revenue, making a more than threefold rise over the previous year. Our international collaborations are yielding positive results as well. Through our joint venture with Renault, the initial product from HYVIA garnered positive reviews. Kilomètres Magazine, a renowned authority in the realm of commercial vehicles in France, bestowed the Heavy Commercial Vehicle of the Year 2023 award upon the HYVIA fuel cell electric vehicle Master van.

Through our partnership with SK, our joint venture, Hyverse, achieved a significant milestone as the first megawatt-scale electrolyzer to be certified in Korea. Our strong governmental backing spans across key global capitals, from Washington, D.C. to Brussels, Helsinki, Paris, and Seoul. Plug has cultivated robust connections with government authorities. Given the vital intersection of energy and climate change with governmental policies, we are proving ourselves as trustworthy experts, capable of offering insights and impartial analysis on the path towards a carbon neutral world. This strategic policy alignment is reaping rewards in the present. As an American manufacturing company, Plug generated a $10 million increase in gross margin dollars during the second quarter, attributed to the provisions promoting American-made products under the IRA. We anticipate further advantages as we tack into manufacturing incentives within the IRA, along with the production tax credit for hydrogen.

The IRA is starting to pay dividends to Plug. Furthermore, we have actively secured multiple sources of non-dilutive capital as we diligently expand our global green hydrogen generation network. Presently, Plug is in the final stages of the second round of due diligence with the DOE Loan Programs Office for a billion-dollar project financing facility. We have a term sheet, term sheet framework, and we're working through final processes to get this structure approved and launched. Simultaneously, we're assessing various options, including corporate debt facilities for major financial institutions, alternative infrastructure, project financing, and solutions for ITC project financing. Lastly, the unmatched nature of our manufacturing infrastructure is substantiated not only by our internal evaluation, but also by feedback from customers and potential clients.

Initially designed to support 2.5 gigawatts of MEAs, our Rochester facility now hosts a scalable potential of up to 7.5 GW as we advance the production process. I had the privilege of personally touring our Vista facility, our 400,000 sq ft integration factory, with a customer this past Tuesday, and quite honestly, they were astonished because they've been at everybody else's facilities. Additionally, our hydrogen plant in Georgia, for which we're hosting an investor day on August 23rd, stands as the largest green hydrogen plant in North America. Navigating the process of scaling our business presents its own set of challenges, and our ability to surmount these challenges serve as a distinct advantage for Plug. One's been our gross margin challenges.

What's not readily apparent is that excluding one-time charges, our margins in the second quarter would have been -12%, over 20% better than Q1. Throughout the rest of 2023, we will see continual margin expansion. An industry leader shared with me recently, the endeavor is truly valuable when it comes with its share of challenges, and this, in the end, provides a differential advantage. The journey of mastering the construction of hydrogen plants, expanding factory capabilities, developing customers, and concurrently introducing an array of new products has undoubtedly been demanding. However, we firmly believe that the efforts investing in these undertakings will yield substantial benefits for all those vested in Plug's success. At this point, Paul, Sanjay, and I are prepared to address any questions you may have. I think we're open for questions.

Operator (participant)

All right, thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press * 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press * 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Bill Peterson with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Bill Peterson (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hi. Good afternoon, team. How are you doing this afternoon?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay, Bill, good afternoon.

Bill Peterson (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good afternoon. Lots of digest and release, forgive me if we miss some things here, I wanted to talk about the, the upcoming guidance from the U.S. Treasury related to the IRA. I know you've expressed confidence in the past, and it seems like there may be some positive, you know, news forthcoming. First of all, when should we get some resolution on the, on the, on the additionality and matching things? I guess if, if it was going to be unfavorable, I guess, without this PTC, how would, how would the economics compare between a U.S. hydrogen plant and a plant in Europe?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Really good question, Bill. Let me answer the first part of your question. It's our assessment and it's the assessment of many people that we will see guidance in September. I think that, from what we can tell from the guidance, there was a good article by Bloomberg, which is consistent with discussions we've had with many senators, with people in the White House, that, you know, I think that the regulations will be, I think very reasonable in the end. We look at these plants today; there are differences between the energy costs in Europe versus the energy costs in the U.S. If you take, for example, green hydrogen itself, you know, if you think about and I'm gonna talk about generation without liquefaction, transportation.

I think at 3 cents a KWh, you're talking probably around $2.50 in the U.S. to generate at a spot like Texas. If you think about Europe, that would include the cost of production and the cost of depreciation, Bill, would not include the cost of liquefaction or transportation. Liquefaction probably adds to that facility $0.75, just to kind of give you a gauge. In Europe, with the PTC, obviously, you know, the PTC was structured to make sure that hydrogen was cost competitive with natural gas. When you start adding on liquefaction, transportation, you're really probably talking about costs around you know, $4.50-$5.00 at a customer site for the best case, which would be Texas, which really puts hydrogen in the realm of natural gas.

I think that's the goal of the IRA. If you look at Europe, the support will be different. It's really more geared to. If you really look at the total dollars that Europe is putting towards hydrogen fuel cells, we think those numbers sit around $870 billion, but much more how you work the government grant process. That's why our international collaborations is real important, because I know this is a long answer, Bill, but, you know, if you take, for example, our JV with HYVIA, we've been able to leverage over EUR 200 million in government grants to support the development of that business. Does that help, Bill?

Bill Peterson (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, no, that's super helpful. You know, maybe the second question for me is, it sounds like you're, you're moving to the next step and some, a potential, a good promising outcome, maybe with the DOE Loan Programs Office. I guess, what remains to be done? It sounds like you're in the second phase of due diligence, and what would be the timing, assuming you successfully, you know, pass that bar?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm going to hand that off to Paul, Bill.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah. Hey, hey, Bill. There's a, there's a couple of things. Well, first and foremost, you know, the good news is that we've come together, as Andy alluded in his comments, with an outline of a term sheet that we think will work for us and that they can get passed. That's a big hurdle. They're in the final... Now, now they're off to the races, doing the final due diligence around, you know, market studies and technical studies and things, that they, they just got to kind of finish that process.

Then once we get through that, we'll, we'll, we'll, you know, there's a little bit of more polishing to finalize the term sheet, in a format that they can submit through their, you know, their process, that they've got to go through the government agencies to get approved. At this point, our best guess is that, you know, we would have something approved and be able to announce something, you know, hopefully mid-November to early December. We're all. They, they are equally motivated to get it done fast as we possibly can. We've got weekly meetings and efforts to try and push over those final hurdles. We'll see, you know, how it plays, but that's, that's kind of the timeline and, and where we're at in that process.

Bill Peterson (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Helpful. Thanks a lot, guys.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thanks, Bill.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, everyone.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hey, good afternoon.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks for taking the questions here. Good afternoon.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Good to hear you, Eric.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Good afternoon.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

You too. Good afternoon. I have not, well, haven't been able to digest the entire letter here, so I might come back to some questions. From your Investor Day, you had talked about $4 billion in overall electrolyzer opportunities that you saw over the next 12 months. You know, I'm curious whether that still holds, you know, whether that's accelerated and maybe what areas of the market where you are seeing the most traction with that business?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Eric, I'm going to turn it over to Sanjay. Sanjay?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Of course. Thank you, Andy. Hey, Eric, how are you? Since we last talked about that, the number is actually, if anything, gone up a bit. We are actually tracking about 7.5 GW of opportunity, as much as $5 billion of potential revenue opportunity for us on that business. By the way, Eric, one of the things we've done is, rather than talk about just the big funnel, we have actually identified project by project, right? These are the projects we believe could actually get to FID, final investment decision, over the next 18 months. Look, some of them might not materialize, some of them move faster than expected, but that's what the funnel sits at right now. The mix is really...

When you really think about sort of the mix, there's a lot of opportunity here in the U.S., actually, quite sizable projects. You know, we're actually very, very far along with some of the sizable opportunity here. There is actually, you guys all saw that we announced this pretty big opportunity with a major oil and gas company in Europe, which we had talked about on our last earnings call. There's lots of those opportunities in Europe as well as in, broadly speaking, in the Asia Pacific market as well. You know, again, we are certainly looking to close several more large electrolyzers deals here, you know, before the year is over, and that's, that's where the funnel sits right now.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Maybe, Sanjay, probably this is yours as well. I know a big topic a few months back was in terms of green hydrogen, and although you've got very extensive plans, you know, whether that actually is going to end up being enough. Also, kind of the open question of, you know, how much do you keep for your customers and how much do you keep open that you might sell in the market? Maybe some updated thoughts on that would be great.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Yes, sure, Eric. Right. A couple of things. Look, I mean, our bringing our green hydrogen plants online is a key to really expanding and improving our fuel business margin. We've talked about that again and again, right? I think once we start to produce internally, you know, that actually reduces our cost of green hydrogen by 1/3 versus what we're having to pay right now in the market. It's a step change, if you will, right? The way the cadence of that is really Georgia, then Louisiana, then Texas, then New York, right? Obviously, our existing plant in Tennessee. Once we have Texas up and running, that's when you actually start to see our fuel business turn profitable. That is still buying from the third party under some of the existing contract right now.

Our primary goal is to really make sure that we're supporting our customer in our existing application business, to make sure that the resiliency is there, we're supporting them 24/7. You know, it's a mission-critical application for them, and simultaneously expand our fuel margin. From the third-party opportunity perspective, Eric, I mean, the funnel is actually bigger than 500 tons.

... opportunity, near-term focus is really how do we make sure that we have enough for our material handling business? How do we make sure we have enough for our application business, so that the application business, in terms of your stationary product, ends up really having a good total cost of ownership for our end customer? We really start to think about swap opportunity. No real change in the view. We still want to have about 20% reserve capacity to be able to support all the force majeure that we've seen here in this liquid hydrogen market in North America. That's really where we are right now, Eric. Andy, would you like to add anything?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

No, I think you covered it, Sanjay.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

All right. Thank you very much.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thanks, Eric.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from James West with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hey, James. How are you?

James West (Senior Managing Director)

I'm doing all right. How are you doing, Andy?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Curious how you guys are thinking about green hydrogen production in Europe. We obviously know the strategy in the U.S. You've got a variety of projects in Europe, but I suspect there's more to come. What's the, I guess, what's the broader strategy to attack the European market with green hydrogen?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Yeah, good question, Eric. Let me take a step back. We believe that when you look at the cost of energy and the availability of green molecules, most of that's going to exist in the northern cone and the southern cone of Europe. As we mentioned in the letter, with ACCIONA, you know, we're looking to have the first 15-ton plant commissioned by the end, later half of 2024. You know, the Port of Antwerp will support a good deal of our activities, which are going on in France, as well as supporting some activities in Germany, which will be a 35-ton plant, with initial hydrogen production in 2025.

As we've talked about, Finland is a area we're spending a good deal of time, where we feel we'll be able to support up to 10% of European internal goals by 2030, with FID in 2026. That's a big focus. There are smaller activities going on for smaller plants in France and Germany to support especially our material handling and stationary customers. That's kind of... You know, I think you'll see most of the activity. We have land we own now in Denmark and other places, which provides opportunities that we've looked at, which could become sites for building out large hydrogen plants. The key item in Denmark and Finland is that both of them are looking to put hydrogen pipelines into Central Europe. That is a real that is the real focus of Plug.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Okay. Okay, guys-

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Does that help?

James West (Senior Managing Director)

That's very helpful. That definitely does. Yeah. Thanks, Andy. Then, do you guys see a scenario, playing out in, in the EU, or Europe broadly, that's similar? I mean, they have the green industrial plan, which is kind of the, the counter to the IRA, but there's not a ton of detail out there. Do you see something similar to what the IRA is doing for... There could be something similar to what the IRA is doing for, green hydrogen in the U.S., you know, it's kind of supercharging the market?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

We do, Eric. We do, James. When we look at it, you know, and I'm going to say on paper, it appears to us the dollars that have been allocated in Europe are larger than the dollars allocated in the U.S.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Right.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

You know, the advantage the U.S. has is the fact that, you know, it's a much more of a, you know, public market activity, so that, since it's based on tax credits, it, it's easier to navigate. We do see in Europe that the overall dollars between now and 2030 could exceed the U.S. Look, that's why we have partners like ACCIONA. That's why we partner very closely with the Port of Antwerp. Now, we're, you know, you really need the right, for a company like Plug, you really need the right European partners to really leverage that expansion.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Got it.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I think we got the right partners.

James West (Senior Managing Director)

Okay, great.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi. Sanjay kind of alluded to this, but refining is a massive market opportunity as it relates to replacing gray hydrogen. You actually announced an order in Europe, one of the bigger ones to replace gray hydrogen with green hydrogen. Do you see this segment and market growing, and someday even U.S. refiners looking to source green hydrogen and replace their gray hydrogen? I'm not sure if you saw yesterday, but there's a public independent refiner who basically, on their earnings call, said, "We are looking for electrolyzers to make green hydrogen, to support our staff." As an end market for U.S. refining or Europe refining, how are you thinking about that?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm gonna let Sanjay take that. We were asked for it, right?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Sorry. Let me look. A couple of comments, Manav, right? Short answer is yes.

... We certainly see that as a pretty meaningful opportunity. It absolutely makes a lot of sense, and frankly, this is where production tax credits really play a major role to make it a level playing field, as Andy was talking about, from a price competitive standpoint versus gray hydrogen and green hydrogen in some of these markets, right? Where the economics start to make sense, pricing start to make sense, economic value proposition for the customer that are looking to really decarbonize makes a lot of sense. As you know, from the industrial opportunity perspective, you know, refining industry is actually a very large user of gray hydrogen and existing opportunity today. We do see this as a major electrolyzer sales opportunity, number 1.

Second, it could even lead into something like a build own operate model for us, and we do have several of those discussions going on, not just in Europe, but also in the U.S. market. Hard to say exactly when they materialize and end up becoming a concrete opportunity, but we have multiple of that opportunity, and these are gigawatts and gigawatts of electrolyzer that that industry is going to need in terms of really going from gray to green hydrogen. One thing that's actually somewhat very unique for Plug, if you would, right, and this is what we talked about as our enterprise sales opportunity and really trying to serve to the customer's need. If they want to buy hydrogen, we can certainly approach it as a build, own, operate model, where we own the electrolyzer, supply them hydrogen behind the fence, if you would.

We can do that. If they are just looking to buy it as a capital equipment, of course, we are the company that has the scale and, you know, the gigafactory that can support the kind of the demand and the needs that they have. Rest assured, we got a lot of those discussions going on, both in U.S. as well as in Europe, and we certainly see this being a big opportunity.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you. I have one quick follow-up. Recently, you introduced your HL 1500, the market's first portable hydrogen refueler. I wanted to follow up on it. How are the conversations with potential customers going with that product? Do you see that product making an impact to your top line in 2024 and 2025? Thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm going to hand that one over to Sanjay also. Sanjay?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Thanks, Andy. Again, we're actually sold out with that product for this year. That's how the demand is. We have transit companies that are super interested in it. We actually have that even opens up some of the traditional existing market for us, even on a smaller size, because of that mobile refueler. It actually has a lot of applications for fuel cell electric vehicle companies that are looking to launch Class Seven and Class A trucks before the whole infrastructure gets built out, right? We're completely sold out. It's a very good margin business for us as well within our cryogenic business. You will see a big impact in Q4 this year with that revenue.

We see substantial growth coming out of that business, both in 2024 as well as 2025. This product already has a gross margin that is within our corporate target that we have articulated in the past.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you so much. This is all very positive. Thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I would just add, Sanjay, it is so critical to transition-

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Absolutely.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Because if you're thinking about going with 5 or 6 buses to start, or you're trying to think about using 4 or 5 vehicles.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

This is a tailor-made product.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

This is a tailor-made product to really support the development of the industry, and, it is really a unique offering.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Thank you for that.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thanks, bye.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.

Colin Rusch (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research)

Thanks so much, guys.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Afternoon, Colin.

Colin Rusch (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research)

Good to hear you, your voice, Andy. I appreciate the time.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Yeah.

Colin Rusch (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research)

As you guys look at some of the challenges in and around, you know, interconnection for, for renewables and some of the larger power systems, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of incremental project development demand on the stationary power side, but also how folks are thinking about potentially diverting some of that power into into hydrogen to avoid some of the interconnection challenges?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

It is. Jose, who's not with us today, is we are seeing substantial demand and activity to so say it, you know, with especially powering EV vehicles for folks who want, you know, fleets for delivery vans, people want bus, buses which are electric vehicles, where the availability of the grid just is not there. You know, we have orders that, you know, we could ship up to 17 megawatts this year. Next year, you know, our internal forecasts show 50-75 megawatts. I think everywhere we go, that is the challenge and that the stationary product really helps people overcome that challenge.

I really like that market because it's really, to me, like the work we're doing with SK and for HYVIA, it's really, to us, the future peaker plant, that we're getting all this learning, developing these products, which eventually will replace gas turbines and will sit side by side with solar and wind, you know, generating hydrogen during the off when the wind's blowing, using the stationary to back up wind and solar farms, as well as, you know, ultimately how nuclear rolls out. There's really a close correlation for peakers. We think it's the perfect product. I always like to say to our team, "This is generation number 2 at the moment," and it's, it's quite a product. I expect that this will go through learning curve after learning curve, and there'll be generation after generation.

That demand is, that demand is real, and that is a real headache to the development of EVs. It's a real and which we, which we think is important for climate change, but it is a real, real problem. It's also, this connection issue, is why this debate going on with additionality really doesn't make any sense to us. That it is, it's something that we know that the White House and others know it is a huge problem. When you sit with Senator Manchin, we talk a lot about in-interconnect and permitting and what it means for electric vehicles, as well as what it means for how you meet the 2050 U.S. climate goals.

Colin Rusch (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research)

Great. Thanks so much. You know, then as you guys continue to scale and look at shorter time frames on some of these projects, can you talk a little bit about the evolution of your supply chain and their willingness to invest, in incremental capacity to support your growth?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I spent, that's actually what I spent my whole afternoon on, and we have, you know, we, we've announced, obviously, 1 critical supplier, Johnson Matthey, who's moving forward with us. We have others, you know, as in the electrolyzer business. Let's take an electrolyzer. What do I worry about? I worry about items like rectifiers and making sure suppliers are well positioned to support our own internal needs. I worry about control panels. I worry about fabricators. For all those 3 items, I think Plug, and I think we should probably publicly go more about who those partners are. Probably can't do 1 on this call. We need to kind of clear it with them.

We have been developing relationships, and we do see people making investments. I think what you'll see is that we've been trying to think through a campus approach at facilities like our Rochester facilities, leveraging our government relations to really help bring companies into places like New York and West Virginia to support our future needs.

Colin Rusch (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research)

Great. Thanks so much, guys.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay, Tom.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Osborne with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hey, Jeff.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Couple questions on, yeah. Thanks for taking the time, Andy, on the Georgia facility. I was wondering if you could give us an update on how the commissioning process is going. I seem to recall that I was expecting that to be up and running, I thought in early August or July. Now it still seems like you're making gaseous hydrogen. I was just curious, have you actually liquefied anything at this point or run it at full steam? Is there any comments you can give us on utilization or capacity factors on how it's performing?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Yeah, sure. Sure, Jeff. Again, I think we're fairly... Look, we feel pretty confident that we're going to be producing liquid in Q3. Right now, we're essentially going through ramping up electrolyzer, right? We've actually turned electrolyzers on. You know that we've been producing gaseous hydrogen there with our gaseous hydrogen plant. We're in a process of actually ramping up our liquefiers, in a process of cooling down the liquefaction trains. You know, again, that's why we're hosting our analyst day there on August 23rd, right? That we can actually show to you all exactly what's happening there and what's going on. At the moment here, are we producing liquid? We're not producing liquid today, but we are essentially ramping up the electrolyzer on path to be able to produce that liquid.

Jeff, one of the key things here, right, I do want to stress this one particular point, is, you know, obviously, look, and I'm just gonna make the point that's the elephant in the room, if you would. We clearly recognize that we've been 3-6 months behind than what we originally wanted it to be. Having said that, this plant is still coming online in 12 months since we actually issued the EPC contract, number one. Number two, we also wanted to make sure this is a first-of-a-kind integrated electrolyzer, liquefier, on-site storage. There are steps we want to make sure that we're taking from a safety standpoint, from the long-term operational benefit of the plant. Long story and a quick comment, we are going to be producing liquid here in the month of August.

We're very much looking forward to hosting you all on August 23rd, and we're essentially ramping up the plant at this point in time.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Filling trailers.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Absolutely.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Look forward to the being there in person. Just one quick clarification on Georgia and then a second question. Is this, you're in the release of the 2.5 tons a day? Have you run it full steam on the electrolysis side?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Yes, that is correct, Jeff. We actually have filled high-pressure tube trailers for third-party customers many times at that site. The way we wanted to do that, right, and this is very important for us to do, make sure that we're running that first gas plant, optimize the gas plant, get the learnings from that gas plant so that we can take all of that learning from a control perspective, ramp up the electrolyzer perspective, all the safety perspective, when you actually are now ramping up the entire 40 MW of electrolyzer to support 15 ton of liquid production. Jeff, to a point where we've actually initiated expansion of that 15 ton now to a 30-ton liquid plant at the site because of how we felt about what has gone so far from a 15-ton production perspective.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

The electrolyzers aren't really anything we're really thinking much about. We know they work.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Absolutely.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

That's great to hear. Just my follow-up-

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Sorry, go ahead.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Quick follow-up was just on, on the hydrogen hubs. How are you positioned for that, and what do you think the timing of the awards are from the government process there?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Jeff, I think the hydrogen hub and the IRA are really closely connected. There was a letter which was released by the State of New York, the State of Massachusetts, State of Connecticut, State of Maine, that, you know, the hydro- the-- to make this a nationwide hydrogen hub, the IRA regulations need to be, for the PTC, need to be, phased in over a long period of time. I spoke to the New York governor about that actually just yesterday, and it is-- I think, you know, we see, you know, more activity come the fourth quarter, for some initial grants. For this to become a nationwide network, it's not just the hubs, it's the hubs coupled with the IRA.

This is something that if you read the letter, the State of New York and the other states put into Treasury, really makes clear that if they really limited the IRA regulations, which I don't think will be the case, that the impact will be much more modest. Because the $9 billion, quite honestly, is a good deal of money, but it's not really what's going to drive a hydrogen economy. It's kind of like I look at it, $50 billion for chip facilities seem like a lot of money, but you really need large support from other elements to make that successful. The same thing holds true for hydrogen. We expect some announcements the fourth quarter, but it'll be a little bit of dollars in and more and more will start flowing out.

Jeff Osborne (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks much, Andy. Go ahead.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay, Jeff.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ameet Thakkar with BMO Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Ameet Thakkar (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hello, Ameet.

Ameet Thakkar (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Just real quick, just thinking about kind of the cadence of kind of cash needs for the balance of the year. It looks like between kind of cash flow from operations and your, your CapEx to date, you've kind of or you're kind of burned about $1 billion in cash. I know you guys mentioned maybe $1 billion from the DOE program. Would that be funded all at once, and then kind of cover your Georgia, New York, and Texas funds? Is that how we should think about it?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm going to turn the cash questions over to Paul here. Paul?

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Hey, thank you. Thanks for the question. I guess a couple of things I would share with you. First and foremost, when you look at the volume that we're projecting, you know, it's, it's almost double or more in the second half. It was a pretty heavy investment in working capital, preparing for all of these new offerings, scaling up electrolyzers, scaling up stationary, scaling up mobility solutions, pretty heavy investment in inventory. We actually expect that to come down, so I, I expect to have that, you know, from an impact standpoint, be the flat to actually generating cash for us in the second half.

Second thing is, when you look at, as, as Andy shared, you know, all of the traction we're making with growing volume as well as the cost downs, you know, that's gonna impact our operating, you know, our, our margin profile, so that helps as well. You, you should see a softening of that in the second half. The short answer to your question is on the, on the DOE program, you know, it will, we're, we're, you know, until it's done, it's not done. You know, we, we, the timing of exactly how that will play, you know, will be to be determined in terms of the inflow. We are actually working, again, as Andy mentioned, with other solutions as well.

You know, I think, if you look at the next couple of years, there's gonna be a combination of debt solutions, from corporate debt to project finance, to enhanced ITC financings, and all of those things you will see more of, from us in, in the coming months as we start to unroll some of those solutions. So, it's gonna, you know, come from one of those programs in the short term, midterm, and long term as we roll all of those solutions out.

Ameet Thakkar (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Just 1 quick housekeeping question. In the investor letter, I know you guys reiterated kind of the, the revenue guide for the year. Didn't see that for the gross margins. I was just wondering if you could kind of level set us on, on that for, for the year. Thank you.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah, we, we didn't necessarily give specific updates on, on the full year margin profile, but I think, you know, when you look at the second half, you know, you're gonna see tremendous sequential progress. I mean, it, it's gonna be, you know, really, you're gonna see big step function in Q3, the volume growth, and then even more substantial step function in, in Q4, you know, as we, as we deliver the back half. You know, it's probably in the, you know, 30%-40% range of sales for the back half and, and, and Q3, and then kind of the 50%-60% range, you know, giving you rough ranges there in terms of volume in the fourth quarter.

When you get to that high level of sales, it's very accretive, and especially when you think about the complement of equipment programs that are in there. We expect sequential growth, and you're gonna see, you know, strong performances and strong growth in the margin profile as we as we progress through the year.

Ameet Thakkar (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question, Oh, sorry. As a reminder, please press * 1 to ask a question at this time. Our next question comes from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Please proceed with your question.

Amit Dayal (Managing Director, Senior Technology Analyst)

Thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Amit, how are you? Good to hear you. Very good.

Amit Dayal (Managing Director, Senior Technology Analyst)

Andy, you, you highlighted, you know, moving selling prices higher in your investor letter. Can you talk a little bit about, you know, which product offerings you're targeting first for this effort, and then, you know, how this translates into the rest of the portfolio?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Yeah. I will... Yeah, let me, I'll highlight one platform that we think there's real opportunities because we have our capabilities far exceed the competition. We know, we know, and we've seen that, as we tested the market, that there are real opportunities in the electrolyzer business. That's a platform that we've seen that, based on the fact that, the demand is there and the supply, when you really look at people's infrastructure, doesn't exist. We think there is a good opportunity to raise prices, and we know that because we have been, and, and we've been winning orders. That's the one-- that's one area that's clear to me that there's real opportunities.

I think that we've seen across all of our segments, again, because I think because of our unique position, and our experience, that there are more opportunities than we've been able to take advantage of in the past. Look, it's really closely tied to all the investments we've made in infrastructure, with facilities, with our hydrogen plants, with our resources around the world, that, you know, we sit at the table with a great deal of credibility that we can deliver, which I think uniquely positions us and which creates additional value for Plug.

Amit Dayal (Managing Director, Senior Technology Analyst)

Understood, Andy. Thank you so much. Then maybe for Paul, I know you are, you know, anticipating significant improvements on the margin side in the second half. You know, the cadence of this, are we looking at sort of breakeven levels in 3Q and then moving to, you know, positive gross margin in the fourth quarter? Or how should we think about this, Paul?

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah, I don't know if it'll be quite breakeven in Q3, but it should be, you know, low, low teens kind of range. You absolutely will see positive in Q4. Pretty, pretty meaningful, you know, accretion on the rate in Q4 as these cost downs continue to kick in. Equally more important, you know, the sales volume that we're talking about and how substantial it is, that'll be very accretive since it's the composition of equipment.

Amit Dayal (Managing Director, Senior Technology Analyst)

Longer term, as your infrastructure comes online, Paul, I mean, is there a possibility where gross, cost of goods sold will actually begin declining for you guys? You know, just trying to see from a modeling perspective, how we should think about it, as you know, the infrastructure around all of these products, comes online.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, I, I give you an analogy. You know, when we built and designed the Rochester facility, you know, we thought we could do kind of 2 gigawatts of, of various products, you know, between GenDrive product and, and stacks and, and electrolyzer products. The learnings we've gone through, we now think we could do anywhere from 4-5 times that volume through that facility. I mean, you can only imagine that the overhead leverage that you can get out of that, that, you know, you know, by, by leveraging that up. We think that's going to happen very fast.

We're, we're, you know, to your point, the infrastructure we've built and, and scaling, you know, the range of things that we're doing, you know, it's, it's going to be substantially, you know, accretive as we continue to ramp up the business just in overhead level. That doesn't even account for supply chain cost reductions. I mean, Andy mentioned today, we spent three hours today just as we do all the time, working on, you know, operational enhancements, focus on things. You've got supply chain cost downs, you've got, you know, overhead leverage, and, and then as Andy mentioned before, there's various products that we're looking at, price management around and ASP management. All those things combined is what's going to drive that margin profile in, in the coming quarters.

Amit Dayal (Managing Director, Senior Technology Analyst)

Understood. That's all I have here. Thank you so much.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thanks, Amit.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg Lewis with BTIG. Please proceed with your question.

Greg Lewis (Managing Director, Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, thanks-

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Good morning, Greg. Good, good afternoon.

Greg Lewis (Managing Director, Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)

Yeah. Thanks. You know, my first question was around, you know, how we should be thinking about the cadence of electrolyzer orders, as we kind of go forward from here. You know, I, I mean, I guess projects are going to continue to be big and lumpy, but, you know, is the, are kind of the more smaller projects building a base that could kind of maybe smooth out?... the cadence of orders here over the next 12 months? Or, I mean, what kind of, what are we seeing out there in the market?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Greg, I'm going to turn that over to Sanjay.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Thank you, Andy. Greg, I think here's how you should think about it, right? You know, I think it's going to be a mix of three key things, right? One is our continued strategic stack sale, which actually carry good pricing and good margin for us. Second piece of that is our 5 megawatt containerized turnkey product, which really makes electrolyzer easy for our customer, right? Now, with the 5 megawatt product versus stack, there is, you know, sort of your site acceptance tests and things like that, fabrication management. That's the piece we're continuing to refine and continue to get better at. Then you got large scale projects, which goes under percentage of completion revenue accounting. As you keep adding more and more of those, that gives you that stable base, right?

Obviously, in 2023, you've seen, you know, Q1 versus Q2 be a lot more lumpy. You will see that pick up in Q3 as you start to see more contribution from some of the, you know, I mean, some project business, some incremental electrolyzer business, as well as some of this 5 megawatt project business. You will see that step change again in Q4. From the bookings cadence standpoint, if you're looking next 12 months out, you should see a lot of 5 megawatt containerized product booking. You should see a lot of stack sales opportunity booking, and you should really see substantial large scale project bookings that we've talked about, right? On our last earnings call, we said we're actually at the very final pages of a major project, announced one.

Clearly, there's two more that we're going through legal documentation right now. These are the types of the things you should see, which will make 2024 smoother. As more and more of this project goes into the backlog and the bookings, then you actually will have that stable base with 5 MW and the stack sale kind of adding on top of that. That's how you should think about the stack of that revenue should unfold for that business.

Greg Lewis (Managing Director, Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)

Super helpful. Thank you very much.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Of course.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thanks, Greg.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hi, Kashy.

Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)

Good evening. Hey, Andy, good evening team, and thanks for taking the questions. So I wanted to... Yeah, thanks. I wanted to ask about the timing and then value of any and all financing transactions that we're discussing here. Specifically, how much capital do you think you're going to raise, you know, either in the second half of 2023 or 2024 from, you know, pick, you know, pick your source, DOE, corporate bonds, ITC, monetization, infrastructure funds? Like, what is the absolute amount that we're looking for here? Is it $500 million, $1 billion, $2 billion? Just trying to get a sense of that.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm going to let Paul take that one.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah, I guess what, what I would tell you is when we look at debt capital, and I, and I think about it in kind of like the next 18-month timeframe, you know, across the various sources that you've made reference to, I'm targeting $1 billion-$1.5 billion. That's where I'm targeting. In that timeframe, you know, exactly the timing of when it rolls in and, and how, you know, that, that is to be determined, we're pretty confident. I mean, we, we could go get debt today. I mean, it's not that we don't have access to debt capital. We're being very opportunistic in thinking about the best terms, best costs, best all the different dynamics. There's debt available. It's just, you know, I've had term sheets from lots of players.

It's just we're trying to be very thoughtful about what we do and when we do it. In that timeframe, that's roughly kind of what I'm thinking about in terms of magnitude.

Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)

That's, that's, that's, that's helpful, Paul. Thanks for that. Then, and then maybe just a quick follow-up question for Sanjay on Georgia. You know, as you, as you indicated, that it's taken a little bit longer to hit, you know, the targeted capacity. Can you walk us through exactly what the gap has been more recently between, you know, the analyst day back in June and what's actually happened? Then when Georgia is online, Is the output for that facility earmarked for materials handling, or is it earmarked for stationary power?

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

Let me take the second part of the question first, right? It's obviously earmarked for our internal use and for both of those applications, right? That's, that's the first piece. Now, in terms of the timeline here as to. Again, I think, you know, from last we met versus where we are right now in the month of August here, we are fully planning to produce liquid here this quarter and certainly this month and hosting the analyst day on the 23rd, right? We've actually, you know, as we continue to make sure that what is the most optimum way to run the plant, there are learnings that we're having, right? Now, we have a choice to make. Do you keep running or do you actually implement some of those learnings?

You know, there are things that we found out that we could do better from a rectifier energization perspective. There are learnings that we have from the stack perspective that were actually going to make the operation of the plant better, right? As we look to implement some of those changes, learnings from our gas plant, that certainly has had some, you know, additional time impact here, right? And again, one of the things we want to make sure, right, for us, getting Georgia, you know, Georgia up and running and getting production in Georgia, it also has to be done the right way and really leverage that learning as we start to think about building our plant in Texas, as we're building our plant in New York as well, right? That's essentially what I would say.

Also, another thing you need to kind of keep in mind, right, is, we've been pushing, just so you guys know, in order to be able to get this plant built in 12 months versus what the industry average of 48 months is, you know, we've actually been pushing folks, but it's in, it's the month of July and August, and on some level, the productivity does go down because it's 100 degrees outside and people have to actually take break and really be able to cool down and then go back.

Sam Burwell (Vice President, US Energy Analyst)

Right, just to give you a sense, the team was on site at 4:30 A.M. today, right? Just to make sure that things were happening. That's another factor. There's nothing anyone can really do about that. Reduce productivity in the month of June, July, and August in Georgia, and that certainly has played a bit of an impact here as well. Would you add anything to that?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I would just wear shorts to the investor day event.

Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks for that. If I, if I, if I could sneak one more, one more in. Andy, in the prepared remarks, you talked dragging down the percent, 13%. I was wondering if you or Paul could go into some details on what these are exactly, and then how should we think about those items over the course of the year?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Great. Kashy, I'll hand it over to Paul.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, I guess what I would say is, I'll just give you a microcosm example. You know, when you're designing something that's new, that's never been done before, then you're trying to manufacture and scale it in mass quantities, obviously, you're going through an incredible learning curve real fast. Sometimes we learn, like, certain materials in terms of how they perform, you know, in, in, in the product and, and when we return, we have, fortunately, we've got a great broad, you know, platform to be able to test the products between the customers we're, we're selling them to, as well as, in the case of electrolyzers, in our own green hydrogen plant.

We're able to accelerate that learning curve, but when you're running through the range of things that we're launching and the, you know, and the scale of pace and all those things, you kind of compound those things. Some of its material, sometimes in terms of how it works, sometimes it's the, the manufacturing processes in terms of how it works, your learnings there. You know, it's those kinds of learning curves that you go through. The good news is we feel like, in particular, many of these things, we've kind of gotten through those, those humps and curves, and, and they're not lessons that you learn again, right? We're able to kind of course correct and, and, and, you know, go through those learnings quickly and, and redirect.

That's, that just gives you a microcosm example of some of the kind of things that that's included in those costs.

Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sam Burwell with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hi, Sam.

Sam Burwell (Vice President, US Energy Analyst)

Good afternoon, Andy.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

How are you doing?

Sam Burwell (Vice President, US Energy Analyst)

I'm doing well. Thanks for squeezing me in. I'll make it quick.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Sure.

Sam Burwell (Vice President, US Energy Analyst)

You guys obviously put out that letter on the 45V to the powers that be recently and laid out your case convincingly, to me at least. It seems like the, the debate or like the, the conflict, the intracorporate conflict, if you will, is on additionality with the NextEras of the world wanting it. You obviously don't, for reasons that make a lot of sense. With that as the backdrop, like, what do you guys consider to be a win on additionality? Like it being put to rest forever? Is it still a win if additionality is a requirement that gets phased in over the next, like, 5+ years?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Sam, what, I'm going to take a step back and say, I stand with Senator Carper, Senator Manchin, where Senator Carper, who wrote the bill, says additionality was not included. I, I'm going to stand by that. I will just add, the longer additionality is pushed out, the better it should be. It... You know, when people ask me that question, you know, we've done a lot of work, and you may have seen some of the work, but essentially, it's bad for U.S. jobs, it's bad for climate, and it's bad for national security. One item that people don't really talk a lot about, and I think you'll start seeing articles about this, this is really at heart. I know Senator Manchin took me aside and said, "Andy, at heart, this is a national security decision.

Will United States continue to be energy independent? To put requirements on the hydrogen industry, which the government has not put on their own buildings as they drive to be net zero, just doesn't make sense. The longer it's out, the better. Yeah, I see no reason for Plug to publicly take a compromised position.

Sam Burwell (Vice President, US Energy Analyst)

Okay, got it. That's all for me. Thanks.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay. Thanks, Sam.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Dendrinos with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Dendrinos (Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you. Hi. I guess maybe just to start here, so in the investor letter, I think you guys all kind of mentioned that you had, you had pushed out some of the timing on, on some of these other facilities, maybe six months or so. Can you just provide, I guess, some additional commentary on that? Is it really just kind of level setting expectations and then giving yourself some more cushion, or, or there's some maybe delays in, in construction that, that we should be thinking about? Thanks.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm gonna let Sanjay answer that one, Chris.

Chris Dendrinos (Research Analyst)

Yeah, sure, Chris, thanks. Look, I'm, I'm glad actually you, you asked that question and give us an opportunity to talk about exactly what's going on here, right? In case of Texas, you know, we wanted to make sure that we were going to get a long-term PPA contract.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

That was very important because that allows you to go and get bankable deals done, make the project bankable. It really starts opening up project financing. We got to do that with a partner like Kiewit, right? That contract negotiation, you know, and again, this is the first of a kind, hasn't been done in the green hydrogen industry. It took about 6-9 months instead of probably a typical 3-6 months, right? We have not executed the contract. EPC is gonna start to kick off. Instead of actually kicking off that EPC in the month of March, it is now in the month of July. That's really what has happened here. Instead of that plant coming online in Q2 of 2024, now it's second half of 2024. That's what happened here.

By the way, we felt like that extra three to six months is well worth it. It is the right thing to do from basically being able to get a contract like this so that it sets the template and the standard of how this project needs to be executed. Otherwise, working and doing all the things that we did in Georgia, all that learning, we would not have taken advantage of that. In terms of New York, it all comes down to substations. We've been having fantastic collaboration with NYPA as well as National Grid. As it stands right now, that substation is probably going to get energized only in Q3 of 2024. Until the substation is energized, we cannot bring the liquid plant online. We have procured all the long lead time items. This is our electrolyzer.

This is our liquefier. Those issues aren't the bottlenecks. Permitting is not the bottleneck. There's nothing else like that, right? Which is why we just wanted to make sure that we articulated why Texas is, you know, end of, you know, second half 2024, why New York is second half 2024. As it relates to Louisiana, we just wanted to make sure that we're being also thoughtful about what that right structure of the EPC contract needs to look like. We've been working hand in hand with our partner, Olin, and instead of that plant also being, you know, end of 2024, based on where we are today, realistically-

End of 2023.

-end of 2023, it is now going to be Q1 of 2024. That's really what has happened here.

Chris Dendrinos (Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Yeah, thanks for that. I guess maybe just on my, my follow-up here, I apologize because I think my phone or Kashy's might have cut out during his last question. You know, in the letter here, there's, I think you mentioned $45 million of incremental investment costs kind of in the quarter for growth. Is that like investments that are gonna have sort of pay dividends going forward, or is that just sort of things that you had to do in the quarter to true things up and I guess, get infrastructure where it needed to be? I guess, how should we think about the benefits of that incremental spend?

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah. Well, I mean, the short answer to your question is absolutely, yes. I mean, when we think about, just to put some context, sales of our electrolyzers will be four times the size in volume than we did in the first half. As we grow into next year, the volume is growing dramatically. This is a product that's very quickly generating a profitable product, margin that is incredibly attractive. It's, you know, one of the many areas that we have opportunities for this ASP management, so because of our unique position in this space. The short answer to your question is, this absolutely has value in helping us propel these incredibly significant platforms that can be incredibly accretive to the company, and you're gonna see the benefits of that.

Hopefully, that helps provide the color you're looking for.

Chris Dendrinos (Research Analyst)

Yeah, appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Percoco (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking this.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Hey, Andy, how are you?

Andrew Percoco (Senior Equity Analyst)

Doing well. Doing well. I'll just squeeze one quick one in here. Most of my, mine have been asked, but it seems like you're, you're pushing pretty hard against additionality. I'm just curious, what, in a world where additionality is required, what does that mean for your business and margins in the, in the near term? Maybe just ask it slightly differently, what are you currently assuming in your margin guidance in 2024 and 2025 as it relates to the hydrogen tax credit? Thanks.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Andrew, let me take a step back and remind folks that the plants that Sanjay has rattled off, Georgia, Texas, New York, Louisiana, all that work started, you know, and started moving forward before the IRA. I'll let Paul answer the second part of that question, but we have real demand for that hydrogen, regardless of how the regulations are written. I think the reason I take such a strong opinion about the IRA, you know, Plug, along with people like Cummins, Air Liquide, we're actually deeply involved in helping architect what the language was, and I can tell you it never came up. Maybe that's why I might be feel quite strong about it because it really shouldn't even be a debate at the moment.

Let me let Paul talk about the margins, profiles, and, and how he thinks about it. I didn't hear the complete context to your question, though.

Sanjay Shrestha (CSO)

What was the margin impact, Paul, if we don't get the production tax credit?

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Well, $3 a kilo. I mean, you know, the way this phrase is holistic, you know, $3 a kilogram is meaningful. We're not gonna not get it all. We're gonna get a substantial portion. If we don't qualify, who will? I think we've got a unique position in terms of all of the relationships we have in Washington, to help shape this in a meaningful way for all the things that Andy talked about. You know, this year you talk about Georgia coming on. We're, we're expecting to start accruing that benefit right away. It's going to have impact this year, and as we move into next year and turn on the additional facilities, it will have even substantially more, you know, impact.

When you talk about $3 a kilogram, you know, the majority of that, if not all of it, in the short term and midterm, the majority of it, you know, we get to, to recognize and, and appreciate. You know, that's incredibly impactful for the, for the near term.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I think it's fair to say, Paul, even without the IRA, our costs go down to one third of what they are today.

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah. As you know, most of you guys know, we started our green hydrogen endeavor even before the IRA got passed, because it is so incredibly economically impactful and accretive to us to produce this at such a much substantially lower cost. You know, overall, we're on the right path and right footing, and this will be impactful, and this is going to be incrementally accretive and additive to the overall equation.

Andrew Percoco (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, thank you. I'll leave it there.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Abhishek Sinha with Northland Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Hi, Abhi.

Abhishek Sinha (Managing Director, Equity Research)

Yeah. Hey, thank you for squeezing me in. Just, just 1 quick one. Overall, I, I keep getting this lot of news here from like, you know, whether it's from different projects in Australia, Europe and whatnot. I mean, I feel like we have a lot of incremental additive value to the existing guidance here, but of course, there's no change in guidance, not just 2023, but even for longer term. I'm just wondering, at least if you look at 2024 or 2025, what projects you could point to that if materially, materially materialized, could really tip the scale on, on the higher end of the back end or see the guidance? I mean, what, what should we hang on?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Now, you know, I've been doing this for 15 years, and I've did pretty good, pretty good on revenue over the years. You know, I, I think we're going to stick by the guidance we've provided already. If something really good happens, we're certainly engaged around the world, Sanjay talked about the sales funnel for electrolyzers, which are real. You know, we're driving every day to make the number bigger, but what we've said in the past for next year and what we've said for 2025, I think we'll just stand behind that today.

Abhishek Sinha (Managing Director, Equity Research)

Good try, though. All right, fair enough. Thank you.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Okay. All right.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Curran with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for running so much later here to, to allow some of the rest of us to ask questions.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Yeah, no problem, Tom, and you are last but not least.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

I just made it. Story of my life. Story of my life. Just two quick ones. First, Andy, Paul, just what are some of the main factors that have obstructed the services division's ability to get closer to, to achieving a break-even gross margin by this point? How has each of those challenges negatively surprised you, either just in terms of its nature, the, the fact that you didn't see it coming or maybe its severity? Then, you know, given that, what, what really undergirds your confidence from here that services will nevertheless be on track for your new profitability improvement timeframe?

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Yeah. Tom, let me tell you why, you know, when I look at the challenge, and the challenge is really comes down to... You know, I'm going to give you the technical challenge, and then I'm going to give you the, our view of why we believe we have good solutions. The technical challenge is really associated with the, the customers and, and this is good, are taking more power out of our unit than they originally did. That means, we need to put more power into the box to be successful, and most of this is involved with material handling. The second item is, you know, fuel cells don't like to start and stop all the time.

You know, we, we understand and have demonstrated that, we know how to manage that, which should be another differential advantage long term for Plug. We have about five or six sites. Now I'm going to talk about the old fleet and the new fleet. We've taken about five or six sites, which we have implemented, you know, all the knowledge we've accumulated, how to add more power, how to manage all these start, stops, and we see that the data shows it works. You know, our biggest challenge has been how to implement these changes rapidly. You know, it takes people, and that's actually been one of the challenges, to get that right.

The second one is, with our metal stack and with what we've done, we can pack so much more power into a unit that we will never run into this issue again. I feel very, very confident, and I, you know, this is not a commitment, but I said in a meeting yesterday during a review. I see no reason long term, the service business can't be more profitable than the product.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Then, you know, my follow-up would then be sticking with gross margin, turning to the equipment division. Where are gross margins currently for each of the major product lines? By major, I mean, you know, material handling, electrolyzers, on-road mobility, cryogenic storage and transportation, and stationary power. You know, what are the run rate targets for each that, you know, as you hit them on a blended basis, are what you expect to enable you to get to that target division average gross margin goal?

Paul Middleton (CFO)

Yeah, there, there's a lot packed in your question given the range of things that we do. I, first and foremost, we have historically, in my public financials, you can look back and see, you know, we've hit 30%+ gross margins in material handling. So we. When you look at the breadth of what we're doing there, it's all about continuing to drive that leverage, and that will continue to be, you know, creative as we grow that. You know, electrolyzers is the early phase of what we're doing there. As I mentioned, we're going to do 4 times the sales in the second half, but it's already in the 20s, and we'll quickly grow up to that 30%+.

When you look at our our long tenured, our long-term, margin goals of 30, going up to 35%, we expect all the equipment business to get there, just to give you some context. So, you know, they're all at different phases, especially some of the newer stuff like stationary, as an example. We're selling our first systems, you know, as we speak, so those are very early in that process. The good news is, it's all about scale. You know, when you look at how fast we're going to ramp these different businesses, it provides that opportunity to scale them from a volume standpoint, from a supply chain standpoint, you know, across those boards.

Cryogenic, the trailer and the tank business, those are existing businesses that are in the mid-20s to high 20s. As we're launching new products like mobile refuelers and hydrogen trailers, those are actually incredibly accretive in the market, and they'll be north of 30 right out of the gate. Don't want to get too descriptive, because I'm sure there's customers listening to a lot of these calls, but I would just say, we have a mix of products today that some more mature, that are already in that range, and many that are poised. If they're not there yet, we'll get there very quickly. That, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of, of color and context.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

Very helpful, Paul.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

Go ahead.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

Go ahead, Andy.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

I'm sorry. No, please go ahead, Tom.

Tom Curran (Senior Equity Analyst)

That was a very helpful overview, and I was just going to thank you for, you know, taking the same marathon approach to your call that the boss does to his shows, so.

Andy Marsh (President and CEO)

That's funny, Tom. On, on that note, let me tell the analysts that we're really looking forward to seeing you at in Georgia on August 23rd. It should be... You'll be able to see, you know, and using the boss analogy, Tom, you'll be able to see a plant like nowhere else in North America, so it's well, well worth coming to. On top of that, very shortly, you will be getting a letter about our Plug Power Symposium, which will be held at our Vista facility. Again, as I mentioned, it's an astonishing facility that we have about 10 minutes south of us here in Latham. Thank you, everyone, for staying on, and I look forward to seeing all the analysts down in Georgia. Bye now.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.