Playa Hotels & Resorts - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. Welcome to the Playa Hotels & Resorts second quarter 2023 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by 0. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Hymel. Please go ahead.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Thank you very much, Jason. Good morning, everyone, and welcome again to Playa Hotels & Resorts second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind participants that many of our comments today will be considered forward-looking statements and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from what has been communicated. Forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. For discussion of some of the factors that could cause our actual results to differ, please review the Risk Factors section of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which we filed with the SEC last night. We've updated our investor relations website at investors.playaresorts.com with the company's recent releases.

Reconciliations to GAAP of the non-GAAP financial measures we will discuss on this call were included in yesterday's press release. On today's call, Bruce Wardinski, Playa's Chairman and Chief, Chief Executive Officer, will provide comments on the 2nd quarter demand trends and key operational highlights. I will then address our 2nd quarter results and our outlook. Bruce will wrap up the call with some concluding remarks before we turn it over to Q&A. With that, I'll turn the call over to Bruce.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Great. Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Our second quarter results continued to build on the momentum established in 2022, with both ADR and occupancy growing year-over-year in our core legacy portfolio and owned resort EBITDA margin expansion, despite a significant FX headwind. Playa's owned resort EBITDA of $83.1 million in the second quarter was the best second quarter performance in the company's history, driven by the continued recovery in our Jamaica segment and an 18.2% year-over-year revPAR increase in our core legacy portfolio. The quarter was not without challenges, however, as we continued to experience year-over-year pressure from both of the two Jewel Resorts in the Dominican Republic that recently transitioned to Playa management and foreign currency exchange headwinds in Mexico.

Additionally, our operations teams executed at the resort level, delivering 100 basis points of owned resort EBITDA margin expansion on a reported basis, despite an approximate 260 basis point FX drag from the appreciation of the Mexican peso this quarter. The core legacy portfolio resort margins improved 280 basis points year-over-year, inclusive of a negative 270 basis points foreign currency drag. The margin performance was particularly impressive given the moderating pace of year-over-year revPAR growth. As a reminder, our expectation was that the first quarter would represent the highest year-over-year ADR growth for 2023, as we lapped the impact of Omicron last year, and that growth would normalize as we enter the second half of 2023.

Finally, I would also like to note that during the second quarter, we recognized a $4.3 million benefit from business interruption insurance in the Dominican Republic related to Hurricane Fiona, which occurred in the second half of 2022. Although we expect more business interruption insurance proceeds, the exact amount and timing of the proceeds is unpredictable. As I mentioned, fundamental strength during the quarter was led by our Jamaican segment, as this market is a little behind on the recovery curve compared to our other segments, due to the longer-lived COVID-related travel restrictions being in place until April of 2022.

The second quarter of 2023 marked the highest Q2 occupancy rate and owned resort EBITDA margin we have ever achieved in Jamaica, reinforcing our belief that nothing has fundamentally changed for this market compared to the pre-pandemic period, when it was our best performing segment. Compared to 2019, international passenger arrivals into Montego Bay Airport had been lagging our other major destinations by approximately 15-20 basis points during the first quarter. That gap narrowed to approximately 10-15 percentage points during the second quarter, with June showing a significant ramp. Comparing ADRs in the segment vis-a-vis peers, we believe ADRs still have a meaningful runway of improvement ahead. In Mexico, revenue growth in this market was predominantly ADR-driven, given where the country was on the recovery curve.

Both of our Mexican segments were negatively impacted by the year-over-year change in the Mexican peso during the quarter. We estimate both segments would have seen improved margins year-over-year, excluding the impact of FX. We have been actively working on efficiency opportunities to manage costs and help mitigate the significant impact of FX on our margins in Mexico, as evidenced by our Yucatan segment growing margins year-over-year on a currency neutral basis on ADR growth of 6%. Although the second quarter was largely as expected, we experienced some softness in close-in demand for the Yucatan in June for the summer period. Demand, however, improved in July in the month for the month. Our expectation is that demand in the Yucatan will remain choppy through the fall as the transatlantic travel resurgence subsides.

In the Dominican Republic, our legacy DR resorts, excluding the Jewel Palm Beach and Jewel Punta Cana resorts, grew both occupancy and ADR year-over-year, yielding over 900 basis points of resort margin expansion year-over-year. Adjusting for the previously discussed business interruption insurance benefit, resort margins for the legacy DR properties grew by 170 basis points year-over-year. Results of the two Jewel resorts in the DR segment were slightly ahead of the expectations we laid out on our last earnings call, representing an approximate $7 million year-over-year EBITDA drag in the second quarter. We continue to expect the year-over-year profit drag from these resorts to improve during the second half of the year, while we continue to pursue the sale of these assets.

We have been in negotiations with two separate buyers to sell the assets individually, and the only update I can share with you today is that one of the processes is further along than the other, but we are diligently working on both dispositions. On the booking front, demand has remained steady as a whole. In aggregate, during the second quarter of 2023, 47.2% of Playa owned and managed transient revenues were booked direct, down 190 basis points year-over-year. The decline was driven by fewer World of Hyatt redemption bookings, following a significant increase during the first quarter, ahead of a change in the conversion rate for point redemptions.

We expect this to smooth out over the course of the year and believe we'll, excuse me, and believe we will be ahead of our targeted 50% booked revenue mix of transient revenue. During the second quarter of 2023, playaresorts.com accounted for approximately 10% of our total Playa owned and managed room night bookings, continuing to be a critical factor in our customer sourcing and ADR gains. Taking a look at who is traveling, roughly 39% of the Playa owned and managed room night stays in the quarter came from our direct channels. Our OTA mix has remained the most depressed channel compared to pre-pandemic levels for stays. Geographically, the biggest change in our guest mix during the second quarter was our Mexican source guest mix, which was up nearly 500 basis points year-over-year.

Our European source guest mix was down slightly year-over-year, but well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Our Asian source guest mix improved modestly year-over-year, but remains the most depressed as it is only approximately 20% recovered. Our visibility remains a critical factor of our success as our booking window was just under three months. Once again, I would like to thank all of our Playa associates who have continued to deliver world-class service in the face of unexpected challenges and rising operating costs. Their unwavering passion and dedication to service from the heart is what truly sets Playa apart.

Finally, on the capital allocation front, we purchased approximately $34 million worth of Playa stock during the second quarter, and an additional $24 million in July, bringing our total repurchases since resuming our program in September 2022 to approximately $145 million, or well over 11.5 of the shares outstanding. We continue to believe that our significant free cash flow generation is underappreciated, given the modest amount of ROI-driven CapEx expected in the near term and our healthy business fundamentals. We believe that our stock offers a tremendous value opportunity, and share repurchases are a phenomenal use of capital from our free cash flow to boost total shareholder returns over time. With that, I will turn the call back over to Ryan to discuss the balance sheet and our outlook.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Thanks, Bruce. Before I begin my review of the quarter, I'd like to remind everyone that beginning with the first quarter of 23, we elected to reclassify on-property room upgrade revenues from non-package revenue to package revenue to be consistent with industry trends. We've recasted prior periods to conform with our current period presentation, and a reconciliation of the changes made to the prior reporting period for 2021 and 2022 can be found on our investor deck in Slide 5.

Our second quarter results were in line with our expectations as a result of continued ADR growth and easing pressure from energy costs, leading to resort margin expansion of 100 basis points year-over-year, which again includes a 260 basis point headwind from foreign exchange, 180 basis point headwind from the two Jewel resorts in the Dominican Republic, and 180 basis point tailwind from the business interruption proceeds. While the quarter fundamentally was generally in line with our expectations, foreign currency related headwinds in the quarter were approximately $1 million higher than expectations outlined on our last earnings call, and we also had a one-time pension-related catch-up in Mexico. Finally, we experienced a safety-related travel warning for Jamaica during the quarter, which temporarily impacted bookings and weighed on June results.

These types of warnings are not unusual nor unheard of in Jamaica. However, this one picked up more media coverage than we typically see and led to some disruption in bookings and cancellations, particularly in the group segment. It was, however, very short-lived, as we are not seeing any lingering effects into the fall. The ADR strength was broad-based, with all segments reporting year-over-year ADR growth, excluding the Jewel Resorts in the DR. On the cost front, as I mentioned on previous earnings calls, we began to see stabilization in food and beverage and utilities costs on a per unit basis in the middle of 2022, and we're hopeful that the inflationary pressures from these two areas would begin to ease as we moved into 2023 and lap the surge that occurred around the start of 2022.

We began to see signs of improvement during the fourth quarter, and that carried over into the first half of 2023. Although it's nice to see some cost relief, these expenses can be volatile quarter-to-quarter. Again, as Bruce mentioned, we're undertaking, undertaking efforts to streamline and improve our procurement process across the entire portfolio to take advantage of our size and scale. These efforts are just beginning to bear fruit from the work undertaken thus far in 2023, and we expect the benefits to accelerate as the company moves into 2024 and beyond, as our cost savings per purchase category are averaging mid-single digits to high single-digit improvements per category thus far. At the segment level, Jamaica led the way in year-over-year ADR, occupancy growth, and margin improvement, despite the temporary impact of the travel warning I previously mentioned.

The segment experienced significant year-over-year growth in group room night mix, helping yield ADR and closing the gap versus other segments' ADR improvement versus 2019. As a reminder, Jamaica got off to a slower start in 2022 due to the Omicron variant having a disproportionate impact on the segment, given its COVID testing requirements at that time. The ongoing recovery, in addition to the significant investment being made to improve the Montego Bay Airport, which is expected to be completed in the near future, bode well for the Jamaican segment for the second half of 2023 and beyond. Forecasted flight seats into Montego Bay are expected to grow over 10% year-over-year in the second half of 2023, leading all of our major destinations. On the margin front, Jamaica once again benefited from better than expected food and beverage and utilities expense.

Keeping-- please keep in mind, when comparing results in Jamaica versus other segments, that Jamaica generally has higher operating costs than our other segments, and we typically generate higher ADRs as well. Looking at our other destinations, Yucatan Peninsula continued to deliver strong results, with year-over-year occupancy improving and reported ADR growth of 6.4%. Reported owned resort EBITDA margins were down 460 basis points year-over-year, primarily as a result of the 570 basis point negative impact from foreign exchange. Food and beverage and utilities expenses were favorable on a year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis, while higher government policy-driven labor costs negatively impacted margins. The timing of sales and marketing spend also had a modest, favorable impact on our margins.

All told, as Bruce mentioned, we're pleased with the operations team's ability to expand margins on a currency-neutral basis as RevPAR growth normalizes. The Pacific Coast had another fantastic quarter with year-over-year ADR improvement of over 18%, leading to robust margin performance, as food and beverage expenses were also favorable year-over-year in this segment. Similar to the Yucatan, segment margins were negatively impacted by approximately 490 basis points as a result of the sharp fluctuation in the Mexican peso, and would have been up year-over-year, excluding the foreign exchange impact. The Dominican Republic, our legacy resorts, the Hyatt Cap Cana and the Hilton La Romana, grew 18%-- 18.5% year-over-year in their ADRs, with occupancy of nearly 74%, which is also up year-over-year.

MICE business at these resorts increased significantly compared to the second quarter of 2022, helping yield higher ADRs and driving non-packaged revenue per sold room growth. The fundamental improvement year-over-year yet led resort margins at these resorts improving significantly, even after adjusting for business interruption proceeds, as food and beverage and utilities expense pressure continued to ease. The segment performance was dragged down by the two Jewel resorts we recently assumed management of, though their performance was slightly ahead of our expectations. We continue to expect the performance of the two Jewel resorts to improve sequentially year-over-year while we execute the sale process at the resorts. Now turning to our MICE group business.

Our 2023 net MICE group business on the books is $59 million versus $55 million at the time of our last earnings call, is well ahead of our final full year, 2019 MICE revenue of $32 million. Looking ahead to 2024, we currently have approximately $48 million of MICE revenue on the books, well ahead of where we were at the same time last year, setting us up favorably for the first half of 2024 and the high season. From a pacing perspective, this base of MICE business, combined with our leisure transient bookings, has our first half of 2024 revenue pacing up over 20%, with both ADR and occupancy contributing to that. This gives us a sense of optimism as we move to the summer period and look ahead to the high season. Finally, turning to the balance sheet.

We finished the quarter with a total cash balance of approximately $269 million. Total outstanding interest-bearing debt of $1.09 billion. We currently have no outstanding borrowings on our $225 million revolving credit facility, and our net leverage on a trailing basis stands at three times. We anticipate our cash CapEx spend for full year 2023 to be approximately $65 million-$75 million for the year, with roughly $45 million-$50 million for maintenance and other critical CapEx needs, as the remainder is designated for ROI-oriented projects. Also, effective April 15th, where we entered into two interest rate swaps to mitigate floating rate risk in our new term loan, due 2029.

We entered into a two and three-year contract, both of which have a fixed notional amount of $275 million, and carry fixed SOFR rates of 4.05% and 3.71%, respectively. On the capital allocation front, as Bruce mentioned, we repurchased an additional $34 million of stock during the second quarter and an additional $24 million in July. Since we began repurchasing shares last September, we've repurchased 19.5 million shares, or approximately 11.5% of the shares outstanding. We still have approximately $110 million remaining on our existing repurchase authorization.

With our leverage ratios well below four times the anticipated free cash flow generation of the business and the attractive valuation of our stock, we continue to believe repurchasing shares is a very compelling use of capital and intend to use our discretionary cash to repurchase shares going forward, depending on market conditions. We will also continue to invest in our business to deliver value to our guests and shareholders, the bar is high for new projects on a risk-adjusted basis, given the valuation of our stock. Now turning our attention to our 2023 outlook.

Relative to the expectations set at the beginning of the year, our RevPAR growth outlook has largely been as expected, with ADRs improving versus initial expectations, occupancies slightly lower, better than expected performance in our core and legacy portfolio, and fundamentals coming in worse at the two Jewel Resorts in the Dominican. As we said in our release, we now expect full-year adjusted EBITDA of $260 million-$275 million, again, inclusive of approximately $26 million negative impact from the appreciation of the Mexican peso, $15 million of which is expected to hit in the second half of 2023. This is approximately $5 millioA-$6 million higher impact than at the time of our last call.

Our fundamental outlook has remained steady for most of the portfolio, with the exception of the aforementioned summertime choppiness in demand in the Yucatan and construction disruption impacting the Pacific segment. At the midpoint, our full year guidance represents approximately 10% year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA on a reported basis. After adjusting for the hurricane-related expenses and business interruption in 2022 and 2023, and foreign currency impacts, the midpoint reset represents Adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 15% year-over-year. For the third quarter, we expect reported occupancy to be approximately 70%. We expect Q3 reported ADR to grow high single digits on a year-over-year basis, and own resort EBITDA margins to decline year-over-year, given the year-over-year EBITDA drag in the DR from the two Jewel Resorts and continuing FX headwinds in Mexico.

Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, we expect own resort EBITDA margins to improve year-over-year. Putting it all together, we expect Q3 owned resort EBITDA of approximately $50 million-$54 million, the fly collection and management fee income of $2 million-$2.5 million, corporate expense of $14.5 million-$15.5 million, thus leading to Adjusted EBITDA of $36 million-$40 million. Keep in mind that these Q3 estimates include approximately $8 million year-over-year impact from foreign exchange headwinds, or approximately $2.5 million worse than this time of our last call. Given our booking window, we're currently 87% booked for the third quarter.

For the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect reported occupancy to be in the low to mid-70s and low single-digits to mid-single-digit year-over-year ADR growth on a reported basis. We again expect own resort EBITDA margins to be down, but up year-over-year, excluding the impacts of foreign exchange in Mexico. We hope that framework helps guide you as you fine-tune your models and gives you further insight to what we're seeing and expecting. With that, I'll turn it back over to Bruce.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Great. Thanks, Ryan. With the increasing uncertainty in the macro backdrop, we are diligently focused on the areas within our control and are carefully monitoring the landscape. We continue to believe the price certainty and amazing value provided by Playa's all-inclusive resorts resonates very well with travelers, even in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop. With that, I'll open up the line for any questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Sean Kelly from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Shaun Kelley (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Bruce, Ryan, maybe just to start, obviously, talked a little bit about choppiness in the Yucatan, and I think this has been a theme we've seen, you know, a little bit of seasonal normalization across a lot of different travel behavior out there. It, it sounds like your rates remain strong. Can you just talk a little bit more about exactly what sort of customer behavior, you're seeing or kind of calling out there? And just, you know, sort of, like, using your longer term experience, kinda, how would you characterize this? Would you characterize it more as normalization or something a little bit more in the macro?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Yeah, I From our perspective, we began to see a divergence between Mexico and the Caribbean during the second quarter, which we believe is likely attributable to what we've been calling destination fatigue, and I think a few others in the space have done so as well. You know, we believe that's the case rather than anything having to do with pricing or other issues around demand. You know, you've heard us mention many times on the call, we've continued to see, you know, great strength in our other segments in the Caribbean and in, in Jamaica. You know, this has really just kind of manifested itself in the summer period. You know, for, for our comments around our guide and, and our assumptions, we're going to assume that it continues throughout the remainder of the year.

As Bruce mentioned, we already saw some nice stabilization in July. We're kind of preparing for choppiness, but it very, very well could just be, you know, a blip in time or a far more normalized, you know, moment for that, for that destination. You know, if you think and you look at the Yucatan, and specifically the Cancun Airport, and just like international arrivals, one, You've heard us say many times, it's the deepest and most mature market of all of our destinations. If you look back, I think, to 2013, you know, through 2019, international arrivals on a kind of annual CAGR basis into that market, into that airport, were roughly 7-7.5%. If you extend that number through 2022, that CAGR goes to only about 6%.

We're actually still below trend. I think what essentially happened is you had a lot of people visit Mexico in 2021 and 2022, it's essentially the place to be. This year, as you've seen Europe and other destinations reopen, some of which we own assets in, you saw people with more choice and chose to go other locations. We view it more as normalization and just like the return of other choices. You know, we still expect it to be choppy, but we don't have any long-term concerns about the destination.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, I, I echo all the comments Ryan made, and I'll tell you from my standpoint, you know, you can see that this may be kind of a, a June/summer phenomena, as Ryan mentioned, when people have other options in going into the high season. I, I think it bodes very well for the high season. Just anecdotally, United announced that they're adding, you know, the triple seven wide bodies, which they've, you know, haven't done ever, in some of the markets or, or in a very, very long time, you know, daily flights coming from Chicago, Denver, and Houston into the Cancun market. That's a huge number of flights and just kind of indicative, I think, of the strength that the airlines are seeing. If United's doing that, I would imagine the other airlines are going to be doing that.

you know, it's, it's nothing that I think is indicative of anything kind of, longer term. I think it's more of a, kind of a summer phenomena.

Shaun Kelley (Analyst)

Thank you for that. Just as my follow-up, you know, thanks for all the color on owned and operated margins, obviously, there's a few moving pieces here between Jewel and the FX piece. You know, Ryan, just overall, like, how do you think about driving operating leverage from here? You know, we are seeing, I think for owned and operated hotels in the U.S., a bit more of a struggle to leverage operating costs relative to the top line.

For Playa's model, let's kinda call it FX neutral, what kind of revenue growth do you need right now to, to be able to drop through and, and, and see either hold margins or see a little bit of margin leverage, again, in a normalized FX environment as we're thinking out to 2024?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Yeah, on a currency neutral basis, I think we want to see kinda low to mid single digit ADR growth. You know, we, we kinda commented on a few times, you know, the first kind of indications or the first kind of sight lines you have into that were this quarter in the Yucatan, with, you know, it wasn't low single digits, but it was mid single digits, around 6% ADR growth, and on a currency neutral basis, where it would expand margins. You know, Bruce and the operation teams have been acutely focused on, on, on cost and kind of restaffing, giving some of the softness and occupancy that we're expecting in the back half of the year.

As I mentioned, and Bruce Wardinski mentioned, you know, we've made investment in time and energy into our procurement team and have seen-- starting to see some nice gains, you know, in small bits now, but that's why we're pretty excited about what we can, what we can expand into into 2024. Right now, our expectation is on our currency neutral basis, we can still expand margins on a low to mid-single-digit ADR growth.

Shaun Kelley (Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Thanks, Sean.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Patrick Scholes from Truist. Please go ahead.

Charles Scholes (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, Bruce, Ryan.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Hi, Patrick.

Charles Scholes (Analyst)

Bruce, you-- Good morning. Bruce, you were, in the previous question, just briefly touching on airlift and air pricing. We certainly heard from some other companies, some, I would say, some mixed in information or thoughts about those two trends now and going forward. I'd like to hear your thoughts on sort of where we are with the, you know, the trends in airlift to your mid, to your markets and also on pricing. You know, with-- it sounds like pricing is going down for especially Mexico on the air, the airlines. You know, how, how do you think that might impact your ability to price at your resorts on the ADR? Thank you.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, you know, I think, you know, and Ryan, you can add in here, but I, I think overall, you know, what we're seeing is very positive. As you said, you know, prices are coming down. You know, during, you know, the kind of the pandemic and early post-pandemic recovery, you know, leisure travel dominated the airline business, and they were able to increase rates, particularly to high demand markets, and we were in high demand markets, you know. And as Jamaica has recovered, it's become, as we've highlighted, a high demand market. But, you know, overall, with, with airline travel kinda diminishing somewhat, and then just a change in patterns, right? With the, the business traveler and, you know, what they're doing and more importantly, what they're not doing, and how it flows throughout the week.

I think, you know, just like you're seeing, you know, United adding Triple Sevens, you know, you're, you're having the airlines adjust their schedules in ways that they never have before. With the, the weaker, you know, kind of weaker flying midweek, you know, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, they have a lot more capacity, and we're going to be, in my opinion, a beneficiary of, of that excess capacity as they try to put more, you know, more customers into the market. Let's face it, this is where they're making this is where they're making their money. I think that is just, you know, gonna be economically driven and, and we're gonna, we're gonna benefit from that. What, what, you know, you're seeing this summer with, with people traveling to Europe, you know, it's amazing.

You know, I mean, absolutely amazing. So it's not that people aren't spending money and not traveling. They're absolutely spending money and traveling. They're just, you know, traveling different places because, you know, the, the world literally has opened, right? It's, it's, it's much different than it, than it was a year ago or two years ago. You know, look at the Airbnb earnings report for the second quarter, you know, record, record profits. Why is that? It's because the rates people are paying. I think it, it bodes very well for us, both on the airline side and, you know, people's willingness to still pay rates. Just to highlight, we never kind of charged the exorbitant rates as others did. You know, we were always modestly increasing our rates.

Sure, they look great, you know, year-over-year, but it was not, you know, kind of your, your price gouging type of rates. I think our ability to sustain those rates and continue to increase them is, is very strong, and that's what you're gonna see, particularly in the high season. For me, you know, I'm, I'm very bullish on, on, you know, the high season, so, you know, late fourth quarter and into the first quarter of next year.

Charles Scholes (Analyst)

Okay. Just a couple follow-up questions. Just remind us, I'm sure it's, you know, in your earnings release, but somewhere. You know, your average ADR right now for this summer, you know, how much are you above 2019 at this point?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

I think, for the summertime, it's between, like, 40%-45% on a clean underlying basis when you adjust for some of the accounting things and, you know, and adjust for, you know, the fact that we have Cap Cana and others. Again, that's to Bruce's point, and I think at that, at its, at its peak, which was last quarter, and in the last year, at some point, a couple resorts reached as high as, you know, 50%-60%. Again, the absolute dollar is, you know, $75 to potentially $175 more than 2019.

Again, don't mean to assume that that's not a lot of money, but when you include food and beverage, entertainment, and a great guest experience, it's not, it's not double like you've seen a lot of resorts in leisure markets in the United States.

Charles Scholes (Analyst)

Okay. Bruce, one, one last question. This is very high level, you know, this is a question I get a lot from investors, and it's I think it's really a point of controversy in the stock. You know, certainly in domestic, higher-end domestic, United States higher-end resorts, obviously, a lot of pressure, year-over-year. You know, thoughts that last summer was a bubble, and then we had a hotel report this morning. Their Napa, you know, their high-end Napa property saw RevPAR down 11%. I mean, do you think next summer, your resorts can, you know, maintain flat year-over-year RevPAR? You know, again, it's just, it's a highly speculative question, but I just wanna, you know, hear your thoughts about, you know, about that. Thank you.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, yes. I mean, the short answer to your question is yes, I think we can. You know, what you've seen is not really softening. You know, what you described about, you know, Napa, I mean, people got, you know, kind of tired of paying $4,000 for a room night in, in Napa Valley. You know, they're not gonna do that. We don't charge $4,000, okay? We have a much more normalized pattern this year in, in the summer. I think going into next year, you're gonna see it too. The benefit that Playa has, you know, and for, you know, those who haven't been to our properties and don't know our properties is, you know, we are, for the most part, the premier resorts within any given market that we have.

So, you know, we are able to garner kind of that, that premium customer and still attract, you know, good, healthy, rate increases. We do very well on, you know, Tripadvisor and other social media rankings, and that allows us, you know, some, some level of pricing power. You know, I think if you look at 2024, what do I think, you know, today, at a high level? I think we're going to have a lot of pricing power and, and strong demand for the high season. The high season is gonna be, you know, the first quarter into the early second quarter as, as we look at that. Then I think you're gonna see normalized patterns throughout the summer and shoulder seasons, and, and that's not bad, you know?

Maybe those normalized patterns are, you know, mid-single digit, you know, rate increases as opposed to, you know, the higher ones that we've gotten in the past. I think during the high season, we'll have more pricing power. I don't see anything that has occurred, you know, recently for us, as any, you know, kind of warning signal or, you know, red flag. You know, as Ryan mentioned, you know, July recovered, you know, well. You know, you had a little bit of, of, of phenomena, you know, softening phenomena in, in June, and then you had kind of a pick back up in, in July.

You'll probably be, you know, kind of soft into the, into the shoulder season, into the fall, September to August, I'm sorry, August, September, you know, early October, which is, you know, traditionally our slowest time of the year anyway. You know, just the dollar impact isn't as significant. I, I think for going into the high season into next year, you know, there's, there's no warning signs. Then, you know, you look at, you know, what are, what are the headwinds that we face, right? The three headwinds that we've hammered through in the second quarter report: the Mexican peso, seasonal weakness in the Yucatan, and the drag of the Jewel, Jewel resorts in the DR. All three of those things can be mitigated.

You know, the Mexican peso, you know, is at, you know, levels we haven't seen for almost 10 years. You know, I think, you know, we've talked well about the Yucatan situation, and, you know, if when we sell the two Jewel Resorts, you know, that eliminates the drag issue, and then it provides, you know, more, more, more cash for us to continue to buy back stock. You know, I'm very bullish. Very, very bullish.

Charles Scholes (Analyst)

Okay. That, that sounds very encouraging. I could ask a lot more questions, but I think I will stop myself here. Thank you.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Thank you, Patrick.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Chris Woronka from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Chris Woronka (Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for all the details so far. Maybe we could spend a second on, on Jamaica and, and, you know, realizing that it's obviously earlier in the recovery phase, does that tail extend into 2024 or beyond? Do you think if we try to connect the dots between where, say, Mexico got relative to prior peak, is that gonna be a similar kind of trajectory in Jamaica in terms of percentage over prior peak? Is it gonna be better? Any, any thoughts on that?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

I think the way you said it is perfect, and that's kind of our expectation. You know, you guys are probably tired of us saying it, but, you know, just as a reminder, you know, that destination was our best performing market prior to, prior to COVID. So we never had any long-term concerns or impairment concerns about that destination. It was just purely around the ability to get in and out of the country when the rest of the countries were, were not testing, right? So we're pretty bullish on that market and learning some of the investments they're making into the Montego Bay Airport. And the fact that, that, that market, namely fairly close to the airport, where most of our resorts are located, has limited to no supply over the last couple of years, you know, and even, even pre-COVID.

It just lends itself to some nice demand, you know, and, and nice runway for that, for that segment.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

I'll just add to that. You know, what Ryan said is, you know, Jamaica draws very significantly from the northeast coast of the U.S. You know, that's a great market to draw from because, you know, those customers are, you know, willing to pay higher rates than other, other markets. The other place that it draws very well from are, are higher-end groups. I think the fact that, you know, we, we have such premier properties, and, and as Ryan mentioned, they're very close to the airport, it's, it's really attractive for, for guests and, and guests that are, you know, somewhat discerning and willing to pay higher rates.

Chris Woronka (Analyst)

Okay. Understood. On the, on the Jewel sales, I, I, I think you mentioned one of them is, is closer than the other. What, what, what needs to happen to get both of those across the finish line? Is this an issue of, of financing? Is it, is it something else? Just, you know, your, your level of confidence that they can actually get done this year.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

... Sure. You know, first of all, to address, it is not an issue of financing. You know, both purchasers, you know, were able to get multiple quotes from, you know, debt, debt providers within the country. I think that's a, that's a good indicator, and it is due to the strength in the country and, and, and the fact that the banks there, you know, are willing to lend. It's not, it's not that. You know, quite honestly, we were further along with the one that's now not further along, because, you know, the, the, the buyer, that we were, you know, very confident of, you know, for a variety of their reasons, not related to, to financing or economics, you know, pulled out of, out of the process.

That, you know, somewhat, delayed, you know, where we are on that one. But I'm optimistic, you know, I'm, I'm optimistic we're, you know, gonna be back on pace and, and get that done. The other one, as we've alluded to, is, is further ahead, and there are no indications, you know, of, of that not occurring. You know, just. We've said this before, Chris, and you know it, in our part of the world, things just move a little slower. It's just kind of the way it is. And you add to that, you know, where we are in, in the season, and as we said, we're, you know, here we are in August, going into September, October, slowest time of the year.

It's always amazing to me that when you're trying to sell a resort in this time of year, people, you know, kind of slow walk it because, you know, when do they want to buy it? They want to buy it, you know, like December first, when they can immediately have higher cash flows. It's just kind of the nature, nature of the beast. I'm, I'm, you know, positive that we're on, on track to sell the two resorts.

Chris Woronka (Analyst)

Okay. Great. This last question was just kind of on the, I think, back to Ryan's comment on the, what you have for 2024 so far. I think you said $48 million of MICE revenue, and that your overall revenue pacing for first half is up more than 20%. The question is: What percentage of first half revenue is, is, you know, on the... Or do you think, what percentage do you think that represents, or what percentage did you have in 2019 for the first half of 2020 at this time?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Yeah, we're about kind of a third to 40%, you know, of our kind of forecasted occupancy already on the books. I got, again, a lot of that is MICE driven, and that's the beauty of MICE, and particularly having it in 3 key segments, and 3 key, 3 key markets for us, because it allows the revenue team to yield from there. We're, we're, you know, cautiously optimistic about the high season at this point.

Chris Woronka (Analyst)

Okay. Very good. Thanks, guys.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Chris.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Chad Beynon from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Chad Beynon (Analyst)

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Ryan, thanks for all the details around the guide. Wanted to just pry into one of the near-term ones. Q3, you said, I think, occupancy should be around 70%. If I'm looking at Q2 portfolio occupancies, that's about 600 basis points off of pre-pandemic. 70% would kind of imply around 600 basis points, kind of between 500 and 600 basis points. I guess firstly on that, you said you're at 87% booked. Why can't this get a little bit higher, particularly in, you know, some of those higher occ markets like Yucatan and Pacific Coast?

Secondly, and we've heard this from, you know, some of the operators, is this just how we should think about how, you know, companies like companies are gonna be running occupancies a few 100 basis points below? Thanks.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Yeah. I'll, I'll start with your second question first. We've been pretty, pretty, pretty strict about the way we've thought about rate versus occupancy since we reopened, and we've spent an immense amount of time kind of building up the profile of the assets, great consumer reports, great Tripadvisor ratings, great HiSAT rankings, et cetera. We want to do everything we can to protect those rates that we've built and not have a knee-jerk reaction even to some summertime softness and start dropping rates. We are 100% okay with ceding occupancy in favor of ADR. Obviously, that is a hotel-by-hotel decision tree, you know, depending on the, you know, the asset quality level and things like that. In general, across the board, that's been first in mind in the, in the entire revenue and commercial team's focus.

To answer your question, yes, like many other operators, it makes more sense to run at a lower occupancy, so. To answer your first one, it could be higher. You know, our expectation is that the summertime softness that we started to see, you know, particularly in June, is more of a Q3 phenomenon in the Yucatan, you know, more than it was even so in Q2. Again, we do have some construction disruption that we pointed out on the last call. It's not major, but it brings the Pacific Coast occupancies down, because we've got some rooms out of service at the Puerto Vallarta asset.

Then again, just in general, Q3, while it is certainly our lowest season, and the differences in rate between Q3 and Q1 are much wider than occupancies would be, it's still our lowest period, and it's a little more seasonal. It is hurricane season. People wait a little bit more to book because they want to see what, you know, what's coming down the pike and when they want to make decisions. It could absolutely be better than what we're expecting, but at this point, that's what we're comfortable forecasting.

Chad Beynon (Analyst)

Okay, great. Thanks. Separately, just thinking about, you know, future ROI projects, you said CapEx is, is kind of still in that, $75 million or $65 million-$75 million for the year, with, with just a little bit of, of, project CapEx. Now that leverage is at these levels and, and the business is, is humming along pretty well, you know, how are you thinking about, expanding or renovating any of the properties within the portfolio? Thanks?

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

You know, I mean, there's no question, you know, we think the business is doing well and that it makes sense, you know, where there's high ROI projects to do those projects. There's, you know, just one big, you know, one big caveat, and, and, and that is, you know, does that return generate more than just repurchasing our stock? Quite honestly, you know, the attractiveness of our stock, I mean, in, in my opinion, you know, Chad, we're trading at a ridiculously low, you know, multiple, for, for our business. You know, I'm, I'm not, you know, kind of in your shoes. I can't tell you what investors think or, or don't think, or what they're concerned about or not concerned about. All I know is, you know, I'm a hotel guy.

I've been doing this for 36 years, and I look at where we sit today, and we're in an incredibly attractive position. You know, when, when you've got, you know, leverage at, at, at 3x, I'm not worried, you know, about our balance sheet. You know, we've bought back significant levels of stock, and our cash balance at the end of the quarter was still almost $270 million.

You know, it just says to me, we should keep doing what we're, we're doing, and, you know, we will reap the benefits of, of doing that, 'cause eventually, you know, it will become obvious, when our share count is a lot lower and our EBITDA continues to grow at a nice pace, you know, that the company's undervalued and, and, you know, the benefit is going to accrue to the remaining shareholders. That's the, the plan. It's not that we are abandoning, you know, ROI projects at all. It's just we have set a high, a high bar, and so that's kind of it.

Chad Beynon (Analyst)

Fair point, Bruce. We have you trading at a mid mid-teens yield off of next year. Makes sense to us as well. Thanks.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Yep. Yeah, thanks, Chad.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Tyler Batory (Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my, my questions here. A couple follow-ups. Just in terms of the, the, the choppy trends in, in Mexico, is that isolated to the U.S. guests? Are you seeing some choppiness from European travelers as well? Just also talk about the mix in the summer, U.S. versus Europe, where you are right now versus what's, what's more typical.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, we're still over-indexed to the U.S. customer than we were pre-COVID, but yes, it has been, you know, more acutely seen from, you know, U.S. customers, you know, going out elsewhere more than anything. You know, same thing with Europeans are down. We actually saw, as Bruce mentioned, higher mix of, of Mexicans and, and local residents coming into the Yucatan and then kind of staying inner country. It's certainly a less of a mix from the U.S. and European as they have more choice in, in heading elsewhere. You hit that one on the head.

Tyler Batory (Analyst)

Okay. How's your competition reacting to some of this? Are they dropping rates in, in the market? I'm not sure if that's kind of exacerbating the problem a little bit.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

It, it is. You know, Tyler, that's a, that's a good question. You know what always happens, you know, in the hotel business, again, I've, I've been through this many, many times. You know, it's, you know, some people, you know, get scared more quickly than others, and, and it depends on where you are in the price point spectrum. If you're kind of in the lower part of the price point spectrum here, the only really, the only real lever you have to pull is price, right? Some of, some of those who are there, you know, they're, they're doing that. You know, we have been very focused on, on the service side. Even with our lower-rated properties, where they stand kind of in the, in the rate mix, we are focused way more on, on service delivery, okay?

Getting, you know, the satisfaction of the customer. At the higher end, you know, it's even more that way, so it's magnified. That's where I said, you know, that for the most part, you know, we have the premium resorts in, in all of the markets we're, we're in, and so we're able to, you know, kind of retain that. You know, Ryan, you know, answered that before. You know, our decision tree is very much that we're going to focus on rate over occupancy, and if we have to cede a little bit of occupancy, that's okay, because you know what? We're an all-inclusive business, so it's not like it's just an empty room, you know, that you can... or an empty airplane seat, that you can sell at any price.

There's a lot that comes into it because of the food and beverage and service component, and then the impact on, on the other guests. We'd rather, you know, err on, on the, you know, side of, of maintaining the rates versus, you know, driving, you know, the highest level of occupancy. We think it's done really well, you know, since we came out of the pandemic, and we continue to continue that way. I think you're also seeing that some of the pricing that the competitors are doing is really short term, you know, kind of drops in pricing, and it doesn't go into the high season. I, I...

Again, gives me optimism that this is more of a, kind of a summer shoulder season, shoulder, you know, period phenomena than it is a, a kind of fundamental change in the market or the demand.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

If it's truly destination fatigue, which we really believe it is, you know, then moving a price wouldn't stimulate demand anyway. That just means they want to go try somewhere else. We're fine with our, with our pricing.

Tyler Batory (Analyst)

Okay. Makes sense. It's very helpful. Then last question for me. On the non-package side of things, just talk about trends within that. I'm not sure if, you know, maybe the, the uptake on, on some of those extra options has, has changed at all, you know, over the past couple of months.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

no, non-package continues to be strong on a per room basis. You know, just as a reminder, when you're looking at our, our results, they get a little, little wonky because of the fact that, you know, this is the last quarter, you know, in a meaningful way that we're lapping our extended stay protection plan. I think you guys all remember that, you know, during COVID, when you had to test to come back to the U.S., we offered that ESP program where a guest-- adults would pay, I think it was, like, $49 per guest to, essentially, if they tested positively upon exit, then they would, you know, could stay at our hotel for free. That was a big, big seller. We're, you know, that all ran through non-package, and now we're lapping the effects of that.

If you just kind of, you know, take our reported year-over-year non-package for sold room growth of just basically down roughly 90 basis points, you add back, you know, the impact of that ESP program lapping or ending was roughly 500 basis points. You know, the Jewel mix in there as well makes things also a little wonky as well, just given the profile of that customer and the fact that we're building occupancies. Even if you just include the Jewels, you know, your ESP on kind of a, on a clean basis, your non-packaged growth is about 4%.

Tyler Batory (Analyst)

Okay. Okay, that's all for me. Thank you.

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

Thanks.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Tyler.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Smedes Rose from Citi. Please go ahead.

Smedes Rose (Analyst)

Hi. Thanks. You've covered a lot of ground, but I just wanted to ask you, are you seeing any significant new supply coming online in any of your markets, either with, you know, new construction or just kind of repositioning of assets that might be more competitive to you?

Ryan Hymel (CFO)

No, it still remains, where most of the supply that is at least scheduled or has come in is in you know, the greater Riviera Maya market, you know, south of the airport or points north of the airport. Obviously, you've heard us say many times, there's really nowhere else to build or, you know, not a whole lot of conversions going on in Cancun proper. A lot of that supply is being absorbed, but it's really Riviera Maya, where you saw the most, and that's, you know, basically from 2019 to 2023, you know, roughly a 4% CAGR. You know, you compare that to our other destinations that were like 2% or below. While it's elevated relative to others, it's still not a massive, massive amount.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

You know, one, one trend, you know, that's going on, and you've seen Hilton made a recent announcement of, you know, converting the Royal Uno in, in Cancun proper, in the hotel zone there, you know, to, to a Hilton brand, is you, you are continuing to see, you know, kind of brand, conversions, but that's not adding any new rooms. It's, it's adding more branded rooms within the market, and from our standpoint, that's a positive. You know, the more, you know, kind of, big hotel brand customers that start to look at, you know, the all-inclusive product and look at the markets that we're in and kind of get that, you know, confidence level to go there, we think that's a positive. You are seeing that trend, but, you know, very importantly, it is not adding new rooms.

Smedes Rose (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Smedes.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Wardinski for any closing remarks.

Bruce Wardinski (Chairman and CEO)

Great. We just appreciate everybody joining us early on this Friday morning in, in the summertime. Thank you very much for participating in our call. We think there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the future of Playa, and we're gonna continue to execute on our strategy. With that, I wish everybody a great day and a great weekend. Take care.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.