Plymouth Industrial REIT - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Plymouth Industrial REIT Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need any assistance during today's call, please signal for a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you would like to withdraw your question at any time, please press star, then two. Please note that today's event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tripp Sullivan of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Tripp Sullivan (President)

Thank you. Good morning. Welcome to the Plymouth Industrial REIT Conference Call to review the company's results for the second quarter of 2023. On the call today will be Jeff Witherell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Anthony Saladino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jim Connolly, Executive Vice President of Asset Management; and Anne Hayward, General Counsel. Our results were released this morning in our earnings press release, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, along with our Form 10-Q and supplemental filed with the SEC. A replay of this call will be available shortly after the conclusion of the call through August 10, 2023. The numbers to access the replay are provided in the earnings press release.

For those who listen to the replay of this call, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, August 3rd, 2023 will not be updated subsequent to this call. During this call, certain comments and statements we make may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning prescribed by the securities laws, including statements related to the future performance of our portfolio, our pipeline of potential acquisitions and other investments, future dividends, and financing activities. All forward-looking statements represent Plymouth's judgment as of the date of this conference call and are subject to risk and uncertainties that can cause the actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Investors are urged to carefully review various disclosures made by the company including the risks and other information disclosed in the company's filings with the SEC.

We also will discuss certain non-GAAP measures, including, but not limited to core FFO, AFFO, and adjusted EBITDA. Definitions of these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in our filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Witherell. Please go ahead.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Tripp. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. We are more than halfway through the year. Our team continues to execute across the objectives we outlined for 2023. Fundamentals continue to be strong with positive absorption, better than expected leasing volumes and rent increases, along with market rent growth. Achieving our objectives through the balance of the year will position us for even better growth in 2024. Let's turn to growth first. Our organic growth is right on track with a 6% increase in cash same-store NOI this quarter and a 7.5% increase through the first half of the year. Occupancy in the same-store pool is still around 99%. Our portfolio continues to be among the top performers in the sector.

Leasing results demonstrate the attention we are providing the portfolio, as well as the strong fundamentals in our specific markets. We have addressed 88% of our 2023 expirations and 24% of our 2024 expirations. Both are at a pace and rent increase ahead of where we were this time a year ago. We saw a 19.3% increase in rental rates on a cash basis for the quarter, and through July 31st, we have achieved a 23.1% increase on leases commencing in the second half of the year. That's in line with our commentary last quarter that we might be trending ahead of the 18% to 20% portfolio mark-to-market we have previously estimated. In our development program, we have three more projects left to deliver by year-end.

The two buildings in Jacksonville are fully leased, with deliveries in Q3 and Q4, and our second Atlanta project is coming online in Q3. We still have work to do on leasing up this Atlanta building and the one in Cincinnati that was delivered in Q2. Both of these properties are well located, and I'm confident we'll get these leased up within underwriting. Across the entire $61 million that we have in our development program, we're expecting initial returns in the range of 7% to 9%. Based on the success of this program, we will continue to explore additional opportunities if the returns meet our threshold and we have a clear line of sight on pre-leasing. The other major initiative is to continue improving our capital structure.

We have now lowered our net debt plus preferred metric for five straight quarters and on a path to get to 7x by year-end and further delevering in 2024. While leasing up our new developments are part of this equation, another big piece is the elimination of our 7.5% Series A Preferred Stock. We announced last night that we will redeem the $49 million that's still outstanding. Anthony will get into more of the details later, but I want to highlight two of the main sources of capital for this redemption.

First, we activated the ATM program during the quarter and for part of July and executed at prices that, in combination with sale proceeds from the sale of a property anticipated to occur within the next 60 days will allow us to eliminate the secured debt on that property and redeploy the proceeds towards the Series A redemption on an accretive basis. I've talked about this before and it bears repeating now. We have a handful of properties that we would sell for real estate reasons, meaning it makes more sense to be owned by a user and/or it's a property where we might have little to no scale in that market, as opposed to a strategy of capital recycling. This potential disposition fits that description perfectly. I want to thank a couple of people who have made big contributions to Plymouth over the years.

First, I'd like to thank Martin Barber, who many of you know from his decades of experience in the REIT sector. He retired from our board effective with June's Annual Meeting, after many years of service to Plymouth and its shareholders. Second, I'd like to recognize Penn White, who co-founded Plymouth with me and retired from his positions as President and CIO last month. He'll continue to serve on the Board of Directors, as well as advise the company on acquisitions and strategy. We're fortunate to have benefited over the years from Penn's contributions as well as the investment team he helped put in place. We have a deep, experienced team at Plymouth, and that gave us the luxury of not having to backfill those roles. Before I turn it over to Jim, I'd like to highlight that last month we published our first ESG report.

We are proud of the effort our team went through to document all of the different activities, initiatives, and investments we've made throughout our company and our portfolio. You can find it on the dedicated ESG page on our website. Jim, why don't you provide some color on the leasing activity?

James M. Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. I want to first touch on the leases we previously signed that commenced during the second quarter. We had a 19.3% rental rate increase on a cash basis on leases commencing in Q2. That's on an aggregate basis. You'll note from the release in the supplemental that the new leases experienced a 36% increase, while renewal leases experienced an 11.2% increase. We had a 75% renewal rate during the quarter. Of the leases that were renewed, 21% were associated with contractual rent increases, which impacts the overall renewal rate increase. Through the first half of the year, of the leases that were renewed, 14.2% of the renewals were contractual increases, while during current market conditions, fixed-rate renewals tend to have lower rental rate increases than market renewals.

They do potentially increase renewal probability and usually have lower leasing costs. In many cases, there are no commissions or tenant improvements. Related to the development program, in Georgia, we have agreed to terms on a 72,000 sq ft lease in our 180,000 sq ft facility with active tenants pursuing the balance. In Cincinnati, we are close on numerous deals with full and partial building users. We have addressed over 88% of the total square footage scheduled to expire in 2023. When we add up all these leases signed and commencing in 2023, we will experience an aggregate increase of 20.3% on a cash basis. The lease renewal rate so far for 2023 leasing is 67%.

With total portfolio occupancy at 98% and the same store occupancy at 98.9%, both of which are essentially flat from Q1, we continue to benefit from strong leasing activity with rental rates still accelerating at a record pace. Turning to 2024, we have already leased over 24% of the initial 2024 expirations. We will experience an aggregate 14.6% increase on a cash basis on these rents, 8.7% for renewals and 43.7% for new tenants. This rental increase compares favorably to this time last year, when our earliest batch of 2023 leases were up 11.1% on a blended basis. The renewal percentage for these transactions was 79%, with 53% of the renewal leases associated with contractual renewals. Consistent with nearly every quarter since the pandemic, we have collected over 99% of our rents billed during Q2, and there are currently no active rent deferral agreements.

At this point, I'll turn it over to Anthony to discuss our financial results.

Anthony Saladino (President and CFO)

Thank you, Jim. The second quarter unfolded as we projected and we have exited the quarter with a slightly more accelerated timeline on delevering. Before we get into that, let's walk through some of the key metrics. As we noted last quarter, we anticipated a Q2 Same Store NOI below the full-year trend line, with the second half of the year trending back up. This was only a timing of expected spend associated with scheduled repairs and maintenance occurring mid-year, coupled with the impact of real estate tax assessments that will be substantially recovered by year-end. With the 6% cash same-store NOI increase this quarter, we are at 7.5% through the first half of the year. That's right at the midpoint of our same-store NOI guidance.

G&A for the quarter was down year-over-year on an absolute basis and down 210 basis points as a percentage of revenues, primarily due to the timing of certain professional fees and other expenses. The main drivers of the year-over-year increase in interest expense are the increase on the borrowings of our revolver associated with completing our development program and the approximately 400 basis point increase in SOFR year-over-year. The revolver is our only debt that is not hedged or fixed, and our only contemplated use of the revolver at this time is to fund the Jacksonville development buildings. As noted in the release, we have funded 87% of the $23.9 million of the development program that remains, which includes the two pre-leased Jacksonville buildings and the second Atlanta building that are all delivering in the second half of the year.

The weighted average share and unit count was up year-over-year, with a full quarter of the higher share count from the conversion of Madison's remaining shares of the Series B in two tranches last year. The utilization of the ATM that Jeff mentioned earlier will have a prospective impact on the weighted average share count in the second half of the year. The impact of which will be more than offset by the accretive execution of the Series A redemption. Turning to our balance sheet, we ended Q2 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 7.06x, and net debt plus preferred to adjusted EBITDA at 7.45x, our fifth consecutive quarter of delevering. One of the big opportunities to continue improving the balance sheet that we've talked about for some time is the elimination of our Series A Preferred Stock.

As you saw last night, we announced the redemption of the 7.5% Series A at par, or $25.00 per share. It will be redeemed on September 6th, with a final dividend paid at that time. After that point, the shares will no longer be deemed outstanding and will delist from the exchange. We have $48.8 million of the security outstanding, and we intend to utilize the $27 million of ATM proceeds raised in Q2 and to date in Q3, along with expected proceeds from the sale of our property that should close in the third quarter. The redemption of the Series A is a significant delevering event that, upon execution, is expected to be accretive to core FFO and brings us closer to sustaining below 7x, while creating strategic capacity as we evaluate internal and external growth opportunities.

As of June 30, 95% of our debt carried a fixed rate or was fixed through interest rate swaps, with a total weighted average cost of debt of 3.96% with 58% of total debt on an unsecured basis. Our liquidity position remains strong, as presently we have $12.4 million of cash on hand, plus an additional $6.7 million in operating escrows, and $287.5 million of capacity on the revolving line of credit. The November maturity of the AIG loan for $110 million is our next opportunity to ladder debt maturities and we will provide a substantive update on the execution next quarter. Based on the first half results, we once again affirmed our core FFO guidance for the year.

We made a slight change in the net loss range to reflect additional depreciation, amortization, and interest expense, and a shift in the timing of a lease-up on the remaining phase I development buildings. As I've said all year, we don't have much variability in our ranges this year. With the stability and growth in our same-store pool, the rental rate increases and the volume of leasing we continue to accomplish, and few variables that remain, which would govern the high and low end of the ranges. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using your speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw it, please press star, then two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to a question and a follow-up. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Today's first question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, thanks. Good morning. First question, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your plans to, you know, permanently finance the remaining $20 million to $21 million of preferred redemption. It sounds like you have a disposition teed up. Can you just provide a little bit more detail on the expected proceeds that you expect to generate and maybe bookend, you know, sort of the pricing on that asset sale?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Todd. Thanks for the question. Yeah, we're not getting into a lot of detail on that asset sale. It is the contract, still subject to some final due diligence, so we're not identifying it or kind of getting into that. We did put basically the proceeds almost $20 million. We have talked about in the past, we have a handful of assets. We have another one under LOI for sale, and we're selling these for pretty much real reasons. We're not selling these assets to pay off the Series A. We're working on it, you know, daily.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. You know, should we assume, you know, I know deleveraging was, you know, an important initiative, you know, beyond the Series A redemption, you know, should we assume additional equity issuance is on the table to the extent that the stock remains, you know, in sort of a similar range, you know, to where it's where it's trading to where you issued in the second quarter and through July?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Well, I think the, the easy answer is yes, but remember, any issue needs to be creative. When you, when you put the equity once in line with paying off the Series A, couple that with disposition, it's a, it's basically accretive FFO. That's what we're focused on. We're not going to issue bit of equity. We're going to issue equity that's accretive.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, got it. Just one question around occupancy and the guidance. You know, you ended June, you ended the quarter at 98.9%. You know, you maintained the 98.4% to 98.8% range for guidance. Can you just talk about the trajectory of occupancy from here, you know, in that range, and if there are any, you know, known move-outs or anything specific that you, you can sort of point to as you look out towards the second half of the year?

Anthony Saladino (President and CFO)

During the second half of the year, same store occupancy pretty much flat. On the overall portfolio, operating plan for the entire year was to flow between 97% and 99%, which we've got all the way through. We do have one move out of about 50,000 sq ft, Michaels Corporate in Atlanta. That was in the budget to be vacant for the entire year. We have a lease that we're negotiating that is going to study the 9/1 or 10/1. We're going to be on that for sure. Other than that, there's really minimal turnover for the rest of the year.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

John P. Kim (U.S. Real Estate Analyst)

Hey, good morning. I think the connection's not great, so we couldn't hear some of the answers just provided to Todd's question. I wanted to ask about the preferred redeeming that. Your stock is up 18% year-to-date. You know, it's prudent to reduce leverage. Jeff, I think you indicated before at NAREIT that you thought raising equity in the $25 to $27 range would be appropriate. It looks like today you're more comfortable raising a little bit below that. Just wanted to ask, I wanted to ask how you got there.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Can you hear me, John?

John P. Kim (U.S. Real Estate Analyst)

It's a little bit choppy, so we could hear, like, every other word.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Okay. We tested early on when we got on the call, and it worked. Apologies for that. Yeah, Todd's question was that, and as I said, we've been very consistent. We were not going to dilutive equity, so we took advantage of the ATM to raise capital to the Series A. Remember, that's a half coupon. That with this position, as we, as put out in the remarks, what was just done was accretive FFO. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't draw any conclusions that we're happy to issue equity at this price. It's really going to be deal specific. If it's accretive to FFO, we'll issue equity. If it's dilutive, we won't do it.

John P. Kim (U.S. Real Estate Analyst)

Okay. Got it.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

All right.

John P. Kim (U.S. Real Estate Analyst)

In his prepared remarks, Jim mentioned the difference again that you had between new and renewal spreads and renewal options having an impact on that. I think last quarter, you guys had mentioned that 10% of the remaining expiring leases had that renewal option so going forward, should we expect that gap to narrow?

James M. Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Yes, as it relates to fixed rate renewals, the component of fixed rate renewals in the portfolio will bleed out over the next two or so years. Just remember, John, this is not dissimilar from the blended results that we accomplished as we were addressing 2023 expirations. We're about 400 basis points ahead relative to last year's performance, and are confident we're on the track to achieve blended cash yield at or in excess of 20% on 2024 expirations.

John P. Kim (U.S. Real Estate Analyst)

Okay, great. We'll follow up with other questions. Congrats on the penny.

James M. Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Thanks.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

The next question comes from Nick Thillman with Baird. Please proceed.

Nicholas Thillman (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Maybe following up a little bit on the renewals. 52% of renewal activity was fixed-rate renewals. What percentage of the stuff that's remaining in 2024 has that fixed-rate renewal option embedded in it?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

2024, the entire, of the total is about 8% left. This is a phenomenon that happens every year, so our numbers are always low. Looking at the, the forward year, because the fixed renewals come in sooner. As we move into, we start filling up with new leases and market rate renewals, and that's how that to break from 14% up to 20%.

Nicholas Thillman (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. Maybe there's been a decent amount of comments on, like, bigger box demand being a little softer. Your three largest tenants have spaces over 500,000 sq ft expiring in St. Louis through 2025. Maybe could you provide a little commentary on that specific market and those spaces, and then maybe early indications for FedEx in 2024? Thanks.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Those properties are, well, they're quite well. World Canyon is in one of the properties, and it's the guilds with food. FedEx, it's not a lot of money in the building. Their lease expires July thirty-first. They have two renewal options and notification period is February, so we haven't heard from them what their intentions are, but to the building, it's quite big, and we certainly expect to know.

Nicholas Thillman (Senior Research Analyst)

That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you do have a question, please press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. Hello, the next question comes from Nikita Bely with JP Morgan. Please proceed.

Nikita Bely (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, guys, good morning. Can you talk a little bit about the pipeline for additional development starts, maybe what your yield expectation on the new deals would be? Also any color on potential acquisitions, given the market environment, anything would be appreciated.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Yes. We do have significant amount of land available for development. I think we've talked in the past where we've out longed, we have additional capacity in Jacksonville, additional capacity in Charlotte, also in Cincinnati. Until we have a clear line of sight on leasing, we're probably not any more new development. We're going to finish up what we're having and get at least out. That we do have several prospects out there looking for to suit. If those come to fruition, we will build those. Those yields will be said between 7%. I think we're achieving between 8% and 9%, and those development yields are accretive and very attractive for us. On acquisitions, we continue to have a very, very rough pipeline.

The market is still bifurcated, where we're seeing multiple offers on some properties, limited offers on others. We're still seeing deals, you know, to financing and in cap rates still are somewhat spread out for a fairly wide range. I think we're in agreement with several of the large houses. I know CBRE came out. We don't really see any clarity on cap rates until the end of the year, and that's being driven by the cost of debt that continues to go up.

Nikita Bely (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Right. two more questions, Anthony. You mentioned the $110 million AIG loan that matures. What's the plan for that when it matures? How are you going to take it out? What's the go forward on that one? The last one is just wanted to hear the overall tone from the tenants. Like, what have you heard from the tenants? Now, we've heard that some folks are taking longer to sign leases. Decision-making process is a little slower. The business is not 10 out of 10 anymore. It's just good. It's great, but it's not 2020, 2021. Just the overall color of the conversations that you're having with tenants, like, what are they telling you?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Why don't we start with tenant reception with Jim, and then I'll follow up with a response to your question on AIG.

James M. Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Yeah. Like I said in the past, that, yeah, tenants this year have taken a little longer to sign leases. I think they just want to see how the general direction of the economy and how it's going. It's not really indicative of their businesses. They're all still doing well. The CL businesses are doing great. It's just a matter of, you know, is there going to be a recession or is there not going to be a recession? They're holding off to the latest moment to sign a lease. We're still getting help with rent increases. It's just agreeing to them. They understand that, you know, rent's gone up, but, it's taking a little longer to make sure that any macro issues are just before they sign.

Relates to AIG, the base case, addressing that maturity, to utilize some of the capacity on the line until we turned it out or originated an alternative instrument with a five year to seven year term. As Jeff mentioned, interest rates continue to rise and will likely stay elevated for longer. Our sensitivity to pricing led us to widen our options, including exploring a incumbent lender and other lenders.

You know, the line currently is 6.9%. Short-term bank debt is around 7%. Private placement market, while stable, is not overly receptive to inaugural issuers at this time. The convertible debt market, which has seen a recent uptick in activity, remains opaque in terms of an option for us. On a relative basis, Life Cos are offering really compelling terms starting in the low to mid 5s, depending on PV and term. We've received actionable offers from not only our banking partners, but others, and we look forward to providing for some kind of update on our call.

Nikita Bely (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

James M. Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Anthony Hau with Truist. Please proceed.

Anthony Hau (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe I missed this, but Anthony, can you talk about what drove the 11% same-store expense growth this quarter?

Anthony Saladino (President and CFO)

Anthony, a lot of timing of spend more than anything. I think we mentioned in Q2, we saw a bit of a pop. We always anticipated this kind of ramp to Q4. We're at the midpoint today, if you will, at 7.5%. Anticipate that spend recovery will normalize the balance of the year to get us at or maybe even slightly above the mid.

Anthony Hau (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. For 2024 leasing, if we exclude the renewal options, what would the renewal lease spread be?

Anthony Saladino (President and CFO)

That would be 22.6%.

Anthony Hau (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Anthony Saladino (President and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Mitch Germain with JMP Securities. Please proceed. Closer, your line is live.

Mitchell Germain (Managing Director of Real Estate Research)

Sorry about that. Nice quarter. Jeff, I know I ask you this every couple of quarters, but just curious in terms of your willingness to entertain a joint venture discussion or another joint venture. You know, clearly now that you've cleaned up the capital stack, is that something that is still under discussion?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Sure, Mitch. Yeah, it, it is. I keep going back to the Memphis transaction that we did several years ago, where we were able to buy a $75 million portfolio, and it, and we, we bought it with money because it was about $7 million or $8 million, you know, CapEx, leasing commissions, that we could just not make our balance sheet. I mean, it would just affect our numbers each quarter. So we did it as a JP, we bought it back last year and that portfolio is performing exceptionally well. So for us, that's a win-win, and so we'll continue to, to do that. We're doing that because we believe we're adding value to the shareholder.

You know, as I said, the time, you know, everybody that's in this room is a substantial shareholder on this call, and so we're not going to do anything silly to dilute ourselves. As we do TVs, we're building shareholder value, and that's the entry point. If it's going to add value, we're going to do it. I think it's a great complement for us, and so we actively have discussions come across the table, and there's that don't fit the REIT. If they fit into TV in our markets, you know, we're picking up the property management fees, the asset management fees when we do that. I think we did great business, so we will continue to explore that.

Mitchell Germain (Managing Director of Real Estate Research)

That's helpful. Now that your development exposure is thinning out a little, and industrial fundamentals still, are still, you know, kind of extending this run to the positive, is there any desire to maybe look toward, you know, executing on some of your land positions or is it going to take some either a pre-lease or significant interest to move forward on a new project?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Yes, the latter. As I think, as we are in active discussions on build to suits as we speak on that. I think that's where we're going to focus our attention, not on spec development.

Mitchell Germain (Managing Director of Real Estate Research)

Got you. Thank you so much. Great quarter.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

At this time, we are showing no further questioners in the queue, this does conclude the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Witherell for any closing remarks.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you for joining us this morning. As always, we are available for follow-up questions. Thanks again.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.