Plymouth Industrial REIT - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the Plymouth Industrial REIT Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press Star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Trip Sullivan. Please go ahead.

Tripp Sullivan (President)

Thank you. Good morning. Welcome to the Plymouth Industrial REIT Conference Call to review the company's results for the fourth quarter of 2023. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our earnings release and posted a copy of our prepared commentary on a supplemental deck on the Quarterly Results section of our Investor Relations page. In addition to these earnings documents, a copy of prior Form 10-K, when filed, can be found on the SEC Filings page of the IR site. The change in timing of our disclosures to yesterday afternoon was in response to previous feedback we received to allow more time to digest the earnings results and supplemental. We also thought it might be even more beneficial for you to read through our prepared commentary ahead of time.

Our supplemental deck includes our full year 2024 guidance assumptions, detailed information on our operations, portfolio, and balance sheet, and definitions of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures. We will reference this information in our remarks. With me today is Jeff Witherell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Anthony Saladino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Connolly, Executive Vice President of Asset Management, and Anne Hayward, General Counsel. I would like to point everyone to our forward-looking statements on page one of our supplemental presentation and encourage you to read them carefully. They apply to statements made in this call, our press release, our prepared commentary, and in our supplemental financial information. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Trip. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I hope that everyone had a chance to review the commentary and supplemental information we posted last night. We believe this will provide for an efficient use of time during a busy earnings week. Our intent is to adopt this practice going forward, and as always, we're open to input on how we can improve. There are several themes I want to highlight this morning from our reported results in 2024 outlook. First, the Golden Triangle is a region that we believe can continue to benefit from onshoring and nearshoring of manufacturing to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, as well as the complementary wave of suppliers and distributors.

The data we've gleaned from a number of independent sources indicates that our markets are in front of a trend that could be measured in terms of decades, not years. Second, our balance sheet is the strongest it's been in the history of the company. That's 7 straight quarters of reducing leverage to 6.5 times and a half turn ahead of where we thought we could be at year-end. With a long-term target of 5-7 times net debt to EBITDA, we anticipate operating in the 6 times range during 2024. Third, we're focused on accretive growth in 2024 that translates into FFO growth. We're projecting a 3%+ increase in FFO per share at the midpoint, primarily driven by improved portfolio operations, leasing, and same-store NOI growth.

With the transaction market starting to come to life, we will look to be more active as the year progresses. We expect to fund growth with a combination of asset sales, use of the credit facility, potentially tapping the investment-grade unsecured notes market, and/or selective ATM usage. And lastly, I'd like to highlight the board's decision to increase our dividend by 6.7%, effective with the first quarter. Together, with a better recognition of the value we've created in our portfolio, we anticipate this could help provide an attractive total return to our investors while maintaining an FFO payout ratio of 50%-51% based on our 2024 guidance. I would now like to turn it over to the operator for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin our question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star then two. Our first question will be from Todd Thomas from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. This is AJ on for Todd. We appreciate the detail provided last night ahead of the call. Just first one for me. As I understand, the FedEx facility at the low end of the guide is assumed to be vacant beginning August first, and the midpoint of the range assumes they renew. Just what other factors are embedded in the guidance range around development leasing and other non-same store leasing? And, what gets you to the high end of the range?

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Thanks for the question. At the midpoint, we assume, as you mentioned, St. Louis property remains tenanted. In addition, there's about 25 bps of nonspecific portfolio vacancy and credit loss assumed on top of the drag associated with spaces in Chicago and the other St. Louis property, which we are confident will be leased up in the second half of the year. On the upper bound-... that captures accelerated lease up of Chicago and the other St. Louis property, coupled with savings in interest and general expenses. And then just a clarification on the lower bound, AJ. The lower end reflects vacancy at the St. Louis property, but this outcome is buffered by about 125 bps improvement in portfolio expense recovery.

Speaker 10

That's helpful. Well, and then, just as it pertains, not only to the FedEx facility, but also the other St. Louis facility in Chicago, would you just discuss about the interest, interest that you're seeing in those facilities and your leasing strategy going forward?

Jim Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Yes, I'll take on the FedEx property first. So that's 3919 Lakeview Corporate Drive. Our plan is, obviously, we'd like to have a single user, but as we laid out in our prepared document, that there are other options where potentially they could renew or, you know, take a portion of the space. Ideally, it's one or two tenants. And, you know, we're on that, and there has been some interest to date, even though it's not vacant until August. In Chicago, at 16801 Exchange, we've been marketing that for a while. We do have a long list of prospects, and we expect to RFP out of that very shortly. Our other property in St. Louis, the 9150 Latty Avenue.

We have a prospect that we're negotiating a lease on right now. They're working with the city on some incentives, and they're pretty much committed to this building, and we expect that to be signed very soon.

Speaker 10

Okay, that's helpful. And then last one for me. Just what's the exact timing of the Chicago asset, and how much NOI was included in the fourth quarter for that asset? Just as we think about the run rate heading into 2024.

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

About 300 per quarter.

Speaker 10

Perfect. That's, that's it for me. Thanks, guys.

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Eric Borden, from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Eric Borden (Senior Associate)

Hey, good morning out there, and appreciate the change in reporting style. I guess my first question for you is on the transaction market. You know, you noted a $500 million pipeline in a pure play potential opportunities, but also noted, you know, you're also seeing an increase in JV opportunities. You know, do you have a preference between the two? You know, what is more attractive today between, you know, traditional acquisitions and potential JV solutions?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Eric, it's Jeff. I think we're agnostic, as we always have been. So it's really just gonna be about the opportunity set. And as you know, the JV we did in Memphis, a few years back, has worked out, significantly, for us. So, again, it really comes down to if the asset needs significant CapEx and leasing, and it's true value add, you know, something like that would sit outside the REIT inside of a JV. So what we're focused on for REIT acquisitions are gonna be, you know, more than likely small one-off deals, and that's how we built the company. We get the higher cap deals when we do that. We put them into the portfolio, drop them into our property management platform.

We pick up the recoveries on that. So don't really have a preference as we sit here today. But the transaction market, as we put in the prepared remarks, there are a lot of things opening up. In fact, we're tracking two or three portfolios that we haven't seen in a while.

Eric Borden (Senior Associate)

That's helpful. Is there, is there any new market opportunities within that potential pool?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

You know, we've identified that, you know, Texas would be a place we'd like to be at some point in the future, but we're very focused on the markets we're in, you know, primarily within the Golden Triangle. I think you saw that we sold off New Jersey. We had one asset there. I think we've indicated to the marketplace that we might sell a few other assets where we don't have scale. So I think that's really... You know, we're gonna focus on the markets we're in, and eventually, someday, we'll probably be in Texas.

Eric Borden (Senior Associate)

Okay, that's helpful. Then last one for me is, I understand we're only two months into 2024, and you still have some wood left to chop on the 2024 expirations, but kind of looking a little bit into 2025, you have a couple larger lease expirations coming due. Have you had any initial conversations with these tenants about potentially either renewing their lease or vacating?

Jim Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Yeah, we have discussions with all of our tenants. The larger ones that you're talking about, we've had direct conversations with, and we expect them to stay, but we expect them to, you know, try to negotiate as hard as they can, and we'll negotiate back.

Eric Borden (Senior Associate)

Okay, thanks. I'll leave it there.

Jim Connolly (EVP of Asset Management)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Nick Thillman, from Baird. Please go ahead.

Nick Thillman (Analyst)

... Good morning. Maybe touching a little bit more on kind of your markets in the Golden Triangle, in the onshoring, nearshoring trends. Does this change the type of product that you're willing to own? Like, I know, like, 25% has some spec part of, like, light manufacturing. Is that a product type that you guys would like to own more of going forward? Or is that included in, like, this acquisition pipeline? Or even more looking at the distribution, like supporting these type of onshoring, these facilities kind of coming back to the States.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Nick. You know, it's kind of the same story. We're not really making a pivot, if you will. So the buildings we own are rectangles, right? They're very utilitarian. And so the manufacturing that you can do in them, you know, is conducive to warehousing and other things. So as you know, there's a variety of type of buildings. Some are more conducive with cross-dock, for high-throughput distribution. A lot of our buildings are warehousing, you know, they're not logistics centers, which is a little different. And so it really just depends on the property that's in front of us, the opportunity that's in front of us. So we wanna make money on each building we buy, as you know.

So what we're not gonna do is we're not gonna own pure manufacturing facilities, right? Buildings that are, that are specifically built for manufacturing and 'cause that limits its use, right? So we're not gonna benefit from Ford's manufacturing facilities, but we are gonna benefit from all the ancillary services that are provided to Ford. So that build out is, you know, we own a large facility in Jacksonville, with additional land. I'm sorry, Jackson, not Jacksonville, Jackson, Tennessee. And we're starting to see some benefits in Jackson as well. So it runs the course.

Nick Thillman (Analyst)

That's helpful. Then maybe as we're looking at deployment here in 2024, based on, like, development versus acquisitions, are you seeing more opportunity in one bucket or the other? Maybe what markets are most interesting today?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

So from our standpoint, we're not seeing a lot of development activity. We continue to have a full array of build-to-suit across our properties, so we've got packages out on every piece of vacant land. So we certainly will entertain a build-to-suit at the right yield. I think we've proven out that we can build, you know, buildings on budget and on time. So I think development will really just be driven by a build-to-suit scenario. So acquisitions are really the key. And again, really within our markets, you know, we're seeing opportunities starting to percolate across all of our markets.

So again, as I sit here today, I don't think we would say, "Well, we're not gonna buy here, but we will buy there." It's really just gonna be driven by the opportunity set and the variety of deals that are out there are really starting to open up. I mean, there's this value add. You've got some, you know, some short-term WALT. You've got some long-term product that's now priced right. So the world has changed, and we're looking forward to the opportunities coming up here at the end of this year and into 25.

Nick Thillman (Analyst)

That's helpful, Jeff. And then maybe last one for me. Anthony, any changes or maybe give us an update on what the tenant watch list is, and then what is kind of baked in for bad debt expectations for the same-store guide this year?

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Certainly, the assumption is about 25 bps in guidance. In 2023, I think we realized about maybe 12 bps. The watch list hasn't materially changed in terms of its composition or size. There's a handful of tenants. There's been a trade-out of one or two. But if all those did not come to fruition, we're talking about less than 10 bps in terms of a write-off.

Nick Thillman (Analyst)

Thanks for that.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Mitch Germain from Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Mitch Germain (Managing Director)

Thank you, and thanks again for all the information last night. Jeff, you talk a lot about onshoring trends and the Golden Triangle. I'm curious if you're seeing how this is having an impact on demand in your leasing pipeline.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Mitch, thanks for the question. As we sit here today, I would say results have been limited as to, you know, we've leased to this company based on onshoring. But, you know, if we go back over the last two years, especially in Atlanta, we had quite a bit of activity on the new building that we... The two buildings that we built that are now fully leased. We had quite a bit of activity with foreign companies that are manufacturing oriented, I'd say light manufacturing oriented. So we had quite a few RFPs out on foreign companies. We had one from Belgium and a few other ones that were interested in setting up shop. And that part of Atlanta is a magnet for light manufacturing opportunities.

I think you know the American Nitrile story in Grove City, Ohio. That was quite a few years back, and we leased that up to a nitrile basically latex glove manufacturer, the first one in the United States in 50 years. So we've seen it, and we're starting to see more of that. I know in Chicago, we're starting to see some of it. But to say that we've leased a building to this particular company, I don't-- it hasn't happened in our portfolio yet.

Mitch Germain (Managing Director)

Great. That's super helpful. You mentioned dispositions. I know obviously, Jersey was a market where you didn't really have much size and scale. Is there any sort of region that stands out to you as one that might have properties that you're looking to queue up for a disposition?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

No, I wouldn't say it's regional-based. I mean, I think we've messaged to the market that we might be interested in getting rid of Milwaukee and Kansas City. And then anything other than that, I mean, we have scale in the market, so it's really just for real estate reasons. And I think if you look back in, you know, the Chicago asset we sold last year, that was to a, you know, owner-user. So some buildings are more conducive to an owner-user owning them, whether there's parking restrictions or, or whatever it might be. So, owner-users tend to pay a little bit more.

I mean, we're not really in the business of selling decent real estate that we wanna own, but if an owner-user wants to come in and pay for it 'cause they want it and need it, then, we certainly entertain that. But we don't have a, we don't have a region that we're looking to unload.

Mitch Germain (Managing Director)

Great. And last one for me. I know you just did some development leasing, Atlanta, I believe some Cincinnati's, either executed or soon to be executed, some others in the prior quarters. From a cadence in terms of how the impact is on 2024, it seems to be somewhat backweighted. Is that the way to think about it here?

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Yes, that is how we've reflected it in guidance. And as I mentioned, the upper bound, to the extent that there's some acceleration around the remaining development square footage, there could be an incremental pickup above the midpoint.

Mitch Germain (Managing Director)

Got you. And Anthony, while I have you, I guess one more question. Last year, there was some cadence issues with regards to same property growth. Obviously, I think there were some expenses that hit in 3Q, and then you were able to collect in 4Q and had an acceleration. How should we think about the cadence? Is there anything that you wanna point out with regards to the results that, you know, kinda might impact our analysis of your earnings or your same property results?

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, it's a good question. We do anticipate the quarterly cadence to trend very similarly to 2023, with Q1 being a bit more muted as a result of weather-related impacts and the timing of professional fees, then ramping up during the second half of the year as the balance of Phase One developments stabilize, and we continue to execute on the remainder of 2024 lease expirations.

Mitch Germain (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Again, as a final reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star, then 1. The next question is from Bryan Maher from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Bryan Maher (Managing Director and Analyst)

Great. Thank you, and good morning. Most of my questions have already been asked and answered, but, you know, maybe as we sit here, Jeff, and you've laid out in your prepared information last night, which was appreciated, kind of the parameters upon which you would transact. But can you maybe talk a little bit, in your view, as you sit here today, what the probability is that you think you'd transact? And what the sweet spot would be of what it is in the 500 you're looking for, that would really compel you to move?

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Brian. Yes, I mean, we're tracking some smaller one-off deals in our markets that for a variety of reasons are trading at some pretty high cap rates. I think what we're starting to see now is where debt's coming due, or you're starting to see leases burn off, and someone's gonna have to, you know, refinance in conjunction with finding new tenants, that's gonna be something, you know, people that have held these properties for a while are probably not gonna wanna, you know, get involved in. So we're really starting to see a lot of opportunities where...

And we're starting to see them in Class A big box stuff that we don't play in, but we're starting to see people who bought properties two, three years ago, you know, selling them at what they paid for them or even at a loss. So I think it's gonna be very interesting for us to be able to take advantage of our properties we buy in our markets at fairly attractive cap rates. And I said, drop them into our property management, you know, and get right after them. So that's probably what we're gonna be interested in buying. We are monitoring the portfolios. It's gonna be very interesting to see where those trade. It's been a few years since we've seen decent trades on that.

And then, again, anything heavy value add, we are starting to see some value add deals, you know, maybe small portfolios pop up that could be very attractive in a JV for us. You know, we like the fee income. I think we look back, I keep talking about Memphis all the time, that you're aware of, which was, you know, a heavy value add portfolio that we bought, put our property management team on it right away, and within a couple of years, we bought it back, and into the REIT, and that is paying dividends to us to this day. Still a lot of mark to market left on there. We continue to improve the quality of the buildings as we go forward. So either one of those works well.

I do think it's gonna be small deals, and I think there'll be a JV at some point.

Tripp Sullivan (President)

Perfect. Thank you. That's helpful.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Mike Mueller from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Mike Mueller (Analyst)

Yeah, hi. I guess going back to St. Louis and the guidance range. When I think of, you know, a guidance midpoint, I tend to think of, you know, the most likely outcome, and then you kind of deviate up and down from there. So I guess with St. Louis, you know, staying in place and having no disruption being the midpoint, is it safe to say that you think that's kind of the most likely outcome at this point? 'Cause it, I guess in the transcript, it just didn't read that way.

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, I think at the midpoint, specifically as it relates to FedEx, we don't have any further clarity beyond what we articulated as a range of outcomes. And so we held the midpoint because there could be the possibility that that is less disruptive than we accounted for on the downside, Mike.

Mike Mueller (Analyst)

Okay. And then I guess just a quick same-store question. I know you, that's not included in the same-store range, but if it was in there, do you have a sense as to what the sensitivity would have been by, say, a FedEx move-out?

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Certainly. Yeah. So if that St. Louis property was included in the same-store pool, the range would have been 6-6.5.

Mike Mueller (Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

Anthony Saladino (EVP and CFO)

Certainly.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jeff Witherell for any closing remarks.

Jeff Witherell (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you all for joining us today, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.