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Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. (PLYM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was operationally stable with Core FFO of $0.46 per share and AFFO of $0.40, supported by stronger blended leasing spreads (19.4%) but offset by deconsolidation of the Chicago JV and transitory Cleveland vacancy; GAAP EPS was $3.24 driven by the $136.8M gain on the Chicago JV contribution .
  • Same-store NOI on a cash basis decreased 0.5% YoY in Q4 (ex-early termination), though excluding the deconsolidated Chicago portfolio it rose 1.1% YoY; portfolio occupancy ended Q4 at 92.5% and same-store at 95.2% .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity improved with a $600M amended unsecured facility (revolver upsized to $500M, new $100M term loan) and a new $90M share repurchase authorization; net debt/Adjusted EBITDA ended 2024 at 5.4x, down for the eighth straight quarter .
  • 2025 guidance initiates Core FFO of $1.85–$1.89, 6.0–6.5% same-store NOI (cash) growth, and $270–$450M of acquisitions at ~6.75% initial yields; management highlighted a >$1B acquisition pipeline and continued leasing progress in St. Louis and Cleveland as key stock catalysts .
  • Street estimate comparison was not available at the time of writing due to S&P Global data access limits; no beat/miss assessment provided (see Estimates Context).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong organic rent mark-to-market: Q4 blended cash leasing spreads +19.4% (renewals +12.6%, new +30.2%); FY24 blended +17.1% .
    • Strategic recapitalization and liquidity: closed the Sixth Street JV (34 Chicago properties) at ~$356.6M (6.2% cap rate) and upsized/extended unsecured credit facility to support growth; net debt/Adj. EBITDA at 5.4x YE24 .
    • Management confidence on growth positioning and Golden Triangle footprint: “we believe Plymouth is well‑positioned to take advantage of market opportunities in 2025” – CEO Jeff Witherell .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Same-store softness in Q4: cash SS NOI declined 0.5% YoY (ex-early termination), reflecting “transitory vacancy within two of our Cleveland buildings” and portfolio deconsolidation effects .
    • Occupancy pressure: total portfolio occupancy fell to 92.5% exiting Q4 (down from 94.2% in Q3 and 97.0% in Q2), with a 110 bps headwind from Cleveland and 70 bps from net leasing in Q4 .
    • AFFO compression: Q4 AFFO per share fell to $0.40 (from $0.48 in Q4 2023), reflecting higher recurring capex tied to leasing and the net impact of the JV .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenues ($MM)$48.686 $51.871 $47.570
Net Income per Share – Diluted$0.03 $(0.35) $3.24
Core FFO per Share$0.48 $0.44 $0.46
AFFO per Share$0.49 $0.40 $0.40
NOI ($MM)$35.080 $34.058 $33.159
EBITDAre ($MM)$31.237 $30.915 $30.663

KPI trends

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Portfolio Occupancy97.0% 94.2% 92.5%
Same-Store Occupancy98.2% 97.5% 95.2%
SS NOI (Cash, YoY, ex-ETI)+9.7% +0.6% −0.5%
Leasing Spreads (Cash, blended)+18.8% +12.2% +19.4%
FY Executed Cash Rent MTM+15.7% (YTD through 7/29) +17.2% (thru 11/4) +17.1% (FY)

Notes: Q4 GAAP EPS reflects a $136.8M gain on real estate from the Chicago JV contribution .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Core FFO per ShareFY 2024$1.88–$1.90 (as of Q2) $1.83–$1.85 (as of Q3) Lowered
Core FFO per ShareFY 2025N/A$1.85–$1.89 New
SS NOI Growth (Cash)FY 2025N/A6.0%–6.5% New
Avg. SS OccupancyFY 2025N/A95.0%–97.0% New
Acquisition VolumeFY 2025N/A$270–$450MM New
G&A ExpenseFY 2025N/A$15.85–$16.45MM New
Interest Expense (net)FY 2025N/A$32.0–$36.5MM New
Wtd Avg Shares+UnitsFY 2025N/A46.051MM New
Net (Loss) per ShareFY 2025N/A($0.26)–($0.23); reconciles to Core FFO $1.85–$1.89 New
Dividend (last paid)Q4 2024$0.24 declared & paid 1/31/25 ——

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Capital/liquidityUpsized unsecured capacity to $1.5B; expected JV closing; net debt to Adj. EBITDA ~6.4–7.1x $600M amended facility in place; net debt/Adj. EBITDA 5.4x; $457M revolver capacity Improved leverage and runway
Sixth Street JVAnnounced recap JV for Chicago; Series C preferred + warrants; deconsolidation expected in Q4 JV closed at $356.6M (6.2% cap); PLYM retains 35%; share of JV in non-GAAP metrics Executed, provides capital
Leasing/occupancyNoted upcoming St. Louis vacancy and Cleveland issues; Q3 SS NOI cash +0.6% Q4 SS NOI cash −0.5% YoY; early 2025 executed commencements lift occupancy to ~94%+; St. Louis 600k SF commenced 1/15/25 Near-term recovery underway
Acquisitions pipelineImproving visibility, Memphis $100.5M at 8.0% initial NOI yield >$1B pipeline; 2025 plan assumes ~$360M acquisitions at ~6.75% yields; opened 2025 with ~$61M Cincinnati deals Active, yields compressing modestly
Cap rates/marketQ3: transaction environment improving Seeing deals at ~6.75% and sometimes lower; competitive bid dynamics; negative leverage observed Cap rates tightening
Macro/tariffs—Tariffs/reshoring driving bulk storage demand from BPOs; pickup in late Jan–Feb activity Tailwind for demand
DispositionsQ2 K.C. sale; expected Columbus option exercise JV gain realized; small Memphis flex sale $2.4M in Feb 2025 Portfolio rotation ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “During 2024, our focus on driving organic growth through leasing and improved property operations resulted in a 17% increase in cash rent spreads... we believe Plymouth is well‑positioned to take advantage of market opportunities in 2025.” – Jeff Witherell, CEO .
  • “The combination of Sixth Street's investment and expanded borrowing capacity fully addresses our current capital needs. Our focus for 2025 will be on leasing and capital deployment.” – Jeff Witherell, Q4 call .
  • “At the midpoint, we assume ~$360M of acquisitions… going-in yield about 6.75%.” – Anthony Saladino, President & CFO .
  • “Of the ~1M SF of 2025 lease-up assumed, ~700k SF is already addressed; the balance is speculative.” – Anthony Saladino .
  • “We’re seeing a lot of capital into industrial… cap rates 6.75% or even lower in some cases.” – Jeff Witherell .

Q&A Highlights

  • Acquisition plan/yields: 2025 guidance embeds ~$360M acquisitions at ~6.75% initial yields, largely on-balance sheet; a ~$150M opportunity could be JV-sized .
  • Lease-up cadence: ~700k SF already commenced toward 2025 occupancy uplift; remaining ~300k SF is speculative but supported by improved activity and prospects .
  • St. Louis/Columbus risk: St. Louis two‑year lease (600k SF Yr1/450k SF Yr2) commenced 1/15/25 with potential expansion; Columbus ODW expected to downsize or vacate with backfills identified, aiming for minimal downtime .
  • Market dynamics: Cap rate compression amid competitive bids; some negative leverage observed; targeting short-wall/value-add where PLYM can create alpha .
  • Strategic capital: Sixth Street relationship supports both balance sheet and potential future JVs; buyback authorized ($90M) offers alternative capital return if pipeline risk-adjusted returns compress .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was not retrievable at the time of writing due to data access limits; therefore, beat/miss versus consensus cannot be assessed here. We attempted to fetch “Primary EPS Consensus Mean” and “Revenue Consensus Mean” but received a provider rate-limit error.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • 2025 setup: Guidance implies modest Core FFO growth (midpoint $1.87) driven by lease-up of transitory vacancies (Cleveland/St. Louis), lower interest expense, and accretive acquisitions—partly offset by preferred dividends and loss of consolidated NOI from the JV .
  • Organic engine intact: Blended cash lease spreads re-accelerated to 19.4% in Q4; with ~1/3 of leases expiring over two years, embedded MTM should support SS NOI growth (6–6.5% guided) .
  • Balance sheet flexibility: $600M amended facility and the JV proceeds reduce leverage and enable scaled deployment; repurchase authorization adds downside support if spreads tighten .
  • Watch occupancy recovery path: Occupancy fell to 92.5% in Q4 but early 2025 commencements have lifted it above 94%; leasing execution in Cleveland and remaining St. Louis block is critical to 2025 midpoint .
  • Acquisition execution risk: Pipeline is large (> $1B) but competitive; yields around ~6.75% could compress; value-add discipline and balance sheet capacity remain differentiators .
  • JV valuation marker: Chicago JV at a 6.2% cap rate provides an external NAV datapoint; PLYM retains 35% economic interest and includes its share in non-GAAP metrics .
  • Trading lens: Near-term stock drivers include evidence of occupancy inflection, acquisition prints (size/yield), and capital allocation (deploy vs. buybacks) against guidance cadence .

Appendices

Leasing & Occupancy Detail (Q4 and early 2025)

  • Q4 leases commenced: 1.532M SF; cash spreads +19.4% (renewals +12.6%, new +30.2%); total occupancy 92.5%; same-store 95.2% .
  • Through 2/24/25: executed 4.277M SF of 2025 commencements (51.7% of 2025 expirations) at +16.6% cash spreads (ex-St. Louis big-box); overall occupancy up to ~94.0–94.3% .

Capital & Liquidity

  • As of 2/24/25: ~$9.0M cash; ~$457.0M revolver availability; unsecured revolver $500M & $100M term loan mature Nov-2028; other term loans mature 2027 .
  • Net debt to annualized Adjusted EBITDA (quarter annualized): 5.4x at 12/31/24; unsecured 72.7% of total debt; 84.5% fixed; WAM 2.6 years .

Chicago JV Snapshot

  • 34 properties; 5.96M SF; 93.1% occupancy; cap rate 6.2%; PLYM 35% ownership; JV ABR $26.244M; PLYM recognized gain on contribution in Q4 .