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PRECISION OPTICS CORPORATION, INC. (POCI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2025 revenue was $4.2M (down 2% YoY) with gross margin 26.6% vs 33.9% a year ago; net loss widened to $(1.3)M and adjusted EBITDA was $(1.0)M as volume shortfalls, program pauses, and higher internal R&D weighed on profitability .
  • Management guided to at least $5.0M revenue in Q2 and reiterated adjusted-EBITDA breakeven at ~$5.5M quarterly revenue; they expect “dramatically improved” results through the remainder of FY25 as production ramps and issues resolve .
  • Strategic milestones underpin the ramp: accelerated deliveries against the $9M single‑use cystoscope order (FY25 estimate raised to ~$3.6M) and a new $340k initial stocking order for a single‑use ophthalmic endoscope (follow‑on orders expected at 2–3x the stocking rate) .
  • Estimates context: S&P Global consensus for Q1 FY2025 revenue/EPS was unavailable at time of analysis due to data limits; as a result, we cannot present vs‑consensus comparisons (S&P Global data unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Single‑use pipeline converting: $9M urology cystoscope production order ramping (FY25 deliveries now estimated at ~$3.6M) and new $340k ophthalmic single‑use stocking order to begin production in January 2025, with first‑year follow‑ons expected at 2–3x the initial rate .
    • Clear path to sequential improvement: management expects “much stronger revenue and dramatically improved bottom line in Q2 and the rest of the year” as production issues are “substantially resolved” .
    • Platform initiative progressing: internal R&D invested in a modular platform expected to shorten time‑to‑market and modestly lift engineering margins as reusable baseline designs are monetized .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Volume shortfalls compressed margins: gross margin fell to 26.6% vs 33.9% YoY and operating expenses rose to $2.4M (incl. higher R&D and one‑time recruiting), driving net loss to $(1.3)M and adjusted EBITDA to $(1.0)M .
    • Program delays: a defense/aerospace customer temporarily paused production due to measurement‑method discrepancies (not product defects), reducing Q1 revenue; yields on a robotic laparoscopy product were also variable, limiting shipments .
    • Engineering mix/under‑absorption: directing engineering resources to platform R&D and ramp transfers constrained billable revenue and contributed to negative adjusted EBITDA in Q1 .

Financial Results

Overall P&L trend (sequential and YoY)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$5.24 $4.70 $4.20
Gross Margin %35.4% 22% 26.6%
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(0.317) $(1.4) $(1.3)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$0.052 $(1.1) $(1.0)

YoY (Q1 FY2025 vs Q1 FY2024)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$4.30 $4.20
Gross Margin %33.9% 26.6%
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(0.5) $(1.3)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(0.2) $(1.0)

Segment mix (Q1 YoY)

Segment Revenue ($M)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Engineering$1.9 $1.9
Production$2.4 $2.3

KPI and liquidity

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash Balance ($M)$0.925 $0.405 $0.636
Line of Credit Availability$1.25M available $0.75M available
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$0.052 $(1.1) $(1.0)

Notes: Management cited 27% gross margin on the call vs 26.6% in the press release; the difference appears to be rounding/definition. We anchor to press‑release figures for precision .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ2 FY2025At least $5.0M New (introduced)
Adjusted EBITDA breakeven thresholdRun‑rate~$5.5M quarterly revenue ~$5.5M quarterly revenue reaffirmed Maintained
Single‑use cystoscope deliveriesFY2025~$2.2M expected (May/Q3 commentary) ~$3.6M expected (accelerated post‑FDA clearance) Raised
Single‑use ophthalmic endoscopeJan–May 2025 (stocking)$0.34M initial order; follow‑ons 2–3x for first year post‑launch (FY2026) New (introduced)
Defense/aerospace program run‑rateQ2 FY2025~$0.85M contribution expected as production resumes New (introduced)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 FY2024)Current Period (Q1 FY2025)Trend
Single‑use endoscopy adoptionRecord $9M cystoscope order; FY25 ~$2.2M modeled; validation of single‑use capability Post‑FDA, accelerating deliveries; FY25 now ~$3.6M New $340k ophthalmic stocking order; first‑year follow‑ons ~2–3x; cystoscope ramp underpinning FY25 growth Improving
Platform solution (Unity)Concept introduced to speed time‑to‑market; strong customer response Limited launch; more formal launch planned; higher‑margin baseline designs Internal R&D elevated; formal launch “in coming weeks”; expected to lift engineering margins modestly Building
Production scalingConsolidation of manufacturing to MA; efficiencies expected Ramping with new lines; issues largely resolved exiting Q1 Hiring ahead of ramp; significant Q1→Q2 step‑up expected Improving
Defense/aerospaceFollow‑on orders; growing traction Temporary pause in one program; expected ~$0.85M in Q2 Pause resolved (measurement method), production resumed; visibility improving Stabilizing
Ross OpticalComponent demand below prior peaks Beginning signs of recovery into early CY2025; increased marketing FY25 flat expected; recovery signs continue Stabilizing
Supply chain/yieldComponents inventory digestion in ecosystem Laparoscopy yields variable; otoscopy shipments smoothed to demand Expect yield improvements; under‑utilization hurt Q1 margins Improving (2H)
RegulatoryFDA 510(k) for cystoscope system (customer) enabled acceleration Ophthalmic single‑use program gearing for June launch; stocking Jan–May Positive

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and pipeline: “Our long-term view… and our strategy to address them, have not changed… we are expecting to grow all segments… the most rapid growth will come from production… key driver… single-use endoscopes” .
  • Milestones: “The recent receipt of first production orders for 2 single-use programs… represents a real milestone… validates the many years of investments” .
  • Platform initiative: “We intend to launch our new platform solution… reduce development risk and time to market… expected to further increase our competitive advantage” .
  • Q2 outlook: “We believe we will achieve revenue… at least $5 million for the second quarter… move us beyond adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of the fiscal year” .
  • Financial model and capital: “High degree of recurring revenue from single-use… confident… ability to attract any needed investment to scale more dramatically in the future” .

Q&A Highlights

  • $9M cystoscope order cadence: ~$3.6M deliveries in FY25; potential to complete sooner given pull‑ins; expect visibility on follow‑ons by mid/late FY26 .
  • Ophthalmic single‑use order: $340k stocking ahead of June launch; first‑year deliveries expected around ~$1.5M; manufacturing may transfer with royalty economics comparable on EBITDA .
  • Pipeline conversion timing: 1 program likely to production within 12 months; another in 12–24/30 months; new programs typically take 2–3 years to move to production .
  • Unit economics: Single‑use programs typically start ≥10k units/year; $100–$300 ASP → $1–$3M starting revenue per program, often skewing toward $2–$3M .
  • Margin dynamics and under‑absorption: Fixed direct labor elevates downside operating leverage on volume dips; recovery expected as volumes rise .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 FY2025 EPS and revenue were unavailable at time of analysis due to data limits. Values retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible; therefore, vs‑consensus comparisons cannot be presented (S&P Global data unavailable).

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Given management’s Q2 revenue floor ($5M) and visibility on single‑use ramps, Street revenue/EPS trajectories for Q2–Q4 FY2025 likely need upward revision on revenue and improved operating leverage if execution meets stated targets .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The single‑use thesis is executing: cystoscope ramp (FY25 ~$3.6M) plus ophthalmic stocking order validate design‑to‑production engine and set up multi‑year recurring revenue streams .
  • Q1 weakness was transient and operational: margin compression tied to under‑utilization and a temporary aerospace pause; production has resumed and yields/process fixes are underway, pointing to sequential improvement .
  • Near‑term catalyst: Q2 print with revenue ≥$5M and a path to EBITDA breakeven validation at ~$5.5M quarterly revenue; a beat on revenue/margins would be a key stock driver .
  • Medium‑term growth drivers: 2–4 programs per year moving into production, each typically $1–$3M starting run‑rate, underpinned by CMOS single‑use imaging leadership and platform leverage .
  • Watch resource balance: internal R&D to launch the platform temporarily weighs on engineering revenue/margins but is designed to accelerate program conversion and raise structural margins longer term .
  • Liquidity is tight but manageable for scaling: cash $0.64M, LOC availability $0.75M, and recent equity raise; management confident in access to capital for capacity as recurring single‑use ramps .
  • Risk checks: execution on yield improvements, on‑time scale‑up (second cystoscope line), and customer demand follow‑through (ophthalmic launch) remain critical to hitting the ramp trajectory .

Sources Read (Q1 FY2025 and prior quarters)

  • Q1 FY2025 earnings press release (GlobeNewswire) with detailed financial highlights and program updates .
  • Q1 FY2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
  • Related press release: Initial $340k ophthalmic single‑use stocking order (Nov 14, 2024) .
  • Prior quarters for trend: Q4 FY2024 transcript (revenue $4.7M; GM 22%; adj. EBITDA $(1.1)M; FY25 cystoscope ~$3.6M) ; Q3 FY2024 transcript (revenue $5.24M; GM 35.4%; adj. EBITDA $0.052M; $9M cystoscope order announced) .