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PILGRIMS PRIDE CORP (PPC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- PPC delivered another solid quarter: revenue $4.76B (+4.3% YoY), GAAP EPS $1.49, Adjusted EPS $1.70, and Adjusted EBITDA $686.9M (14.4% margin) . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat by ~$0.13B and EPS (adjusted) exceeded by ~$0.12; Q1 saw mixed results (EPS slight miss; revenue beat), while Q4 2024 was EPS beat/revenue miss*.
- U.S. strength and EU margin expansion offset Mexico headwinds (FX and disease); U.S. adjusted operating margin rose to 14.7%, EU to 5.4%, while Mexico fell to 15.4% from 18.3% last year . Management cited legal settlements ($58M) in GAAP results and higher commodity chicken input costs pressuring Prepared Foods profitability .
- Capital allocation/capex updated: Board declared a $2.10/share (~$500M) special dividend; 2025 capex now “slightly less than $750M,” at $650–$700M; net interest expense guided to $115–$125M; tax rate ~25% . A $400M prepared foods plant in GA is expected to lift U.S. prepared sales by 40% at full capacity (1H’27) .
- Key near-term stock catalysts: special dividend timing, Prepared Foods expansion trajectory (Walker County spend cadence), and commodity cut-out/hatchability dynamics that influence U.S. margins and estimate revisions .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- U.S. business and branded Prepared Foods momentum: “Prepared continued to realize significant growth as net sales increased by 20%… Just Bare recently achieved over 10% market share… Pilgrim’s received… People Magazine’s 2025 Food Award for Best Chicken Nugget” . U.S. net revenue rose to $2.82B and adjusted EBITDA to $482.7M .
- EU margin expansion from efficiency and mix: Europe adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 8.2% in Q2 (7.4% last year), driven by “integration of support functions and manufacturing optimization programs” and key customer partnerships . Adjusted operating margin reached 5.4% (vs 4.7% LY) .
- Capital returns and liquidity: Board approved a special dividend of $2.10/share (~$500M), with net leverage still ~1.15x post-payout and ample liquidity; bonds mature 2031–2034 and credit facility runs to 2028 .
What Went Wrong
- Mexico faced FX and disease headwinds: Q2 Mexico adjusted EBITDA fell to $92.3M (from $115.1M LY) amid a 13% YoY FX drag and “bird disease challenges,” though margins remained >16% . Adjusted operating margin declined to 15.4% from 18.3% YoY .
- GAAP headwind from legal settlements: $58.5M of litigation settlements weighed on GAAP operating income; management is addressing ongoing matters (Broiler litigation) .
- Prepared Foods profitability pressure: Despite strong sales growth, “higher commodity chicken input costs were the headwind to prepared foods profitability,” tempering margin flow-through . In deli, “reduction in the growth of rotisserie birds… impacting prices” vs 2024 .
Financial Results
Headline Results and Margins
Consensus vs. Actual (S&P Global)
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Net Sales (Geography)
Segment Profitability (Adjusted Operating Margin)
Key Line Items (GAAP and Non-GAAP)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Prepared continued to realize significant growth as net sales increased by 20%… Just Bare recently achieved over 10% market share… Pilgrim’s… Best Chicken Nugget for our cheesy jalapeño offering.” – CEO Fabio Sandri .
- “With the strength of our liquidity positions, the Pilgrim's Board… declared a special dividend of $2.10 per share… we estimate the U.S. prepared foods business will increase its net sales by over 40%… upon reaching full capacity at this new plant.” – CFO Matt Galvanoni .
- “Adjusted EBITDA margins in Q2 were 17.1% in the U.S… 8.2% in Europe… Mexico… greater than 16%, even though facing year-over-year FX headwinds of 13% and bird disease challenges.” – CFO .
- “We were… 105% staffed… to prepare for… impacts in the labor market [from visa revocations]… we’ve been able to fully staff our plants.” – CEO .
- “USDA estimates growth of 1.5% in 2025, suggesting sufficient supply to meet strong chicken demand… [beef declines support chicken].” – CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Capex cadence and Walker County spend: 2025 ~$50–$70M, 2026 $250–$300M, residual 2027; first-half 2027 start-up; plant supports NAE/veg-fed Just Bare growth .
- Mexico profitability bridge: 13% YoY FX headwind and disease weighed on Q2; Q3 FX impact expected “on par” with LY; live market volatility persists; expansions add ~20% net sales at full utilization .
- Capital allocation/interest: Special dividend reduces cash; net interest guided to $115–$125M; opportunistic bond repurchases remain a tool .
- Labor dynamics: Overstaffing mitigated potential disruptions from humanitarian visa changes; wage inflation manageable; plants fully staffed .
- Supply/demand balance: Industry bottleneck at hatcheries; supply growth via weights (big bird); retail and QSR demand supportive into 2H .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025: Revenue $4.757B vs $4.629B est (beat ~$0.13B); Adjusted EPS $1.70 vs $1.58 est (beat ~$0.12) .
- Q1 2025: Revenue $4.463B vs $4.446B est (beat ~$0.02B); Adjusted EPS $1.31 vs $1.34 est (miss ~$0.03) .
- Q4 2024: Revenue $4.372B vs $4.680B est (miss ~$0.31B); Adjusted EPS $1.35 vs $1.16 est (beat ~$0.20) .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Momentum in U.S./EU and the special dividend likely support upward revisions to FY25 adjusted EPS and capital return frameworks; Mexico FX/volatility and legal settlement cadence are watch items for GAAP. Prepared Foods capacity expansion underpins medium-term mix and margin upgrades .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- U.S. outperformance and EU execution drove a clean beat on revenue and adjusted EPS; GAAP optics were affected by $58M legal settlements that do not recur in adjusted figures .
- Prepared Foods is a structural growth and margin driver: +20% YoY in Q2 and a $400M plant adds 40% sales at maturity; expect mixed shift and reduced volatility over time .
- Mexico remains profitable but volatile; FX and live-market dynamics can swing quarterly results despite solid demand; expansions (1H’26) target +20% sales, dampening volatility longer term .
- 2025 capex trimmed to $650–$700M with clear spend cadence; net interest slightly higher on lower cash post-dividends; tax rate ~25% .
- Near-term trading lens: Cutout values, hatchability/supply trends, and wings recovery are key to Q3/Q4 margin trajectory in U.S.; Prepared Foods momentum and special dividend timing are stock catalysts .
- Medium-term thesis: Diversification (brands, prepared, geographies) plus operational excellence supports double-digit U.S. fresh margins through cycles and EU margin uplift; incremental prepared capacity should re-rate earnings quality .
- Monitor legal settlement run-rate and any tariff/AI-related trade shifts—management sees limited disruption beyond China so far; liquidity and maturities provide flexibility .