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PPL Corp (PPL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was a clean beat: ongoing EPS $0.60 vs $0.54 YoY (+11%); GAAP EPS $0.56; operating revenues $2.504B vs $2.304B YoY (+8.7%). EPS, revenue, and EBITDA exceeded consensus, aided by more typical seasonal weather and higher volumes in KY/PA . EPS/revenue/EBITDA beats vs S&P Global consensus: EPS +$0.06*, revenue +$0.20B*, EBITDA +$56M*.
  • Guidance maintained: 2025 ongoing EPS range reaffirmed at $1.75–$1.87 (midpoint $1.81), with management expecting to be in the top half; 6–8% annual EPS and dividend growth targets reaffirmed through at least 2028 .
  • Segment drivers: KY +$0.05/share YoY on higher sales volumes (weather); PA +$0.03/share on volume and transmission revenue; RI −$0.01/share on higher operating costs and lower transmission revenue .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: accelerating data-center demand (nearly 11 GW advanced in PA; ~6 GW active in KY), active generation build in KY (battery + CCGTs), and financing clarity (new $2B ATM; ~$170M YTD equity with expected $400–$500M for 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Ongoing EPS and revenue beats; CEO: “We’re off to a strong start in 2025… more typical seasonal weather patterns,” reinforcing operational execution and discipline .
  • Guidance and growth framework reaffirmed (EPS midpoint $1.81; 6–8% EPS and dividend growth through at least 2028), signaling confidence in plan durability .
  • Regulatory tailwinds: PA PUC approval to increase PPL Electric’s DSIC revenue cap to 7.5% (from 5%), improving capital recovery cadence; management highlighted ISR approvals in RI (~$400M across electric/gas) .

What Went Wrong

  • RI ongoing earnings down $0.01/share YoY on lower transmission true-up and higher operating costs; Corporate & Other −$0.01/share on higher interest expense .
  • Battery tariff risk: management acknowledged potential tariff impacts on storage projects, working vendor solutions and watching domestic production to mitigate .
  • Non-GAAP special items ($30M after-tax; $0.04/share) from IT transformation, RI energy efficiency settlement (pre-acquisition activity), and RI integration costs; though improved YoY ($0.12/share in Q1 2024) these remain a drag .

Financial Results

Core Metrics vs Prior Periods

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenues ($USD Billions)$2.304 $2.211 $2.504
Operating Income ($USD Millions)553*323* 678
EBITDA ($USD Millions)893*662*1,028*
EBITDA Margin (%)38.76%*29.94%*41.05%*
EBIT Margin (%)24.00%*14.61%*27.40%*
Net Income ($USD Millions)$307 $177 $414
Net Income Margin (%)13.32%*8.01%*16.53%*
Diluted EPS ($)$0.42 $0.24 $0.56

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment EPS Breakdown (Reported vs Ongoing)

Segment EPS (per share)Q1 2024 ReportedQ1 2024 OngoingQ1 2025 ReportedQ1 2025 Ongoing
Kentucky Regulated$0.25 $0.25 $0.30 $0.30
Pennsylvania Regulated$0.21 $0.22 $0.25 $0.25
Rhode Island Regulated$0.09 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10
Corporate and Other($0.13) ($0.04) ($0.09) ($0.05)
Total$0.42 $0.54 $0.56 $0.60

Special items in Q1 2025 totaled $0.04/share (after-tax), primarily IT transformation, RI energy efficiency settlement, RI integration costs .

KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
PA Retail Delivered (GWh)9,627 10,144 +5.4%
KY Retail Delivered (GWh)7,454 7,803 +4.7%
KY Wholesale (GWh)167 439 +162.9%
Total Delivered (GWh)17,248 18,386 +6.6%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Ongoing EPSFY 2025$1.75–$1.87 (mid $1.81) $1.75–$1.87 (mid $1.81) Maintained
EPS Growth TargetThrough ≥20286–8% annually 6–8% annually Maintained
Dividend Growth TargetThrough ≥20286–8% annually 6–8% annually Maintained
Dividend per Share (Quarterly)Q2 2025 pay date$0.2725 (declared) $0.2725 payable Jul 1, 2025 Maintained
Financial Policy (FFO/ Debt)Plan period16–18% 16–18% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Data center demandPA: 8–9 GW advanced; KY: ~400 MW advanced, ~3–6 GW active; customer savings ~$3/mo per GW PA: nearly 11 GW advanced; >50 GW requests; KY: ~6 GW active; ESAs with minimum load commitments signed Up
Resource adequacy in PAAdvocating legislation; potential for utility-owned generation; Texas-like funds discussed Continued push (House Bill 1272); IOU vs IPP advantages under rate base; PUC large-load tariff discussions Up
Kentucky generation planIRP: CCGTs in 2030/31; 400 MW storage; Mill Creek 5 under construction CPCN filed; Aug 4 hearing; decision expected Nov; possibility to delay coal Unit 2 retirement given load Up
Supply chain/tariffsTight turbine/EPC markets; battery costs vs peakers; timelines 3–5 yrs for CCGT Battery tariff exposure noted; working vendors; potential domestic capacity Stable/Watch
O&M/IT/AIO&M savings to ≥$175M by 2026; IT transformation; AI use cases Continued IT transformation; digital solutions for cybersecurity and efficiency Up
FinancingStrong balance sheet; debt issuance; equity needs to 2028 $2B ATM established; ~$170M equity via forwards YTD; 2025 equity $400–$500M expected Up

Management Commentary

  • “We’re off to a strong start in 2025… reflecting our continued strong financial discipline and operational execution, along with a return to more typical seasonal weather patterns” — Vincent Sorgi, CEO .
  • “We’re focused on creating utilities of the future… modernize our energy networks, better meet the evolving needs of our customers, and deliver increased value” — Vincent Sorgi .
  • Capital plan execution: “On track to complete over $4 billion in infrastructure improvements this year… project $20 billion in capital investment needs from 2025 to 2028” — Vincent Sorgi .
  • Financing clarity: “Established a $2 billion ATM… issued about $170 million of equity through the ATM… expect $400–$500 million of equity in total this year” — Joe Bergstein, CFO .
  • Data centers: “We now have nearly 11 gigawatts of projects in advanced stages… structured ESAs to include minimum load commitments to significantly reduce risk to other customers” — Vincent Sorgi .

Q&A Highlights

  • Equity issuance: Base case is continuing with the ATM; remain opportunistic on other structures (e.g., hybrids) to optimize cost of capital .
  • Battery tariffs: Two battery projects (125 MW under construction, 400 MW in CPCN); managing potential tariff impacts, exploring domestic production options .
  • Kentucky coal retirement: Potential delay of Mill Creek 2 retirement if load materializes; balancing permitting and load needs .
  • Large-load tariffs: PA ESA contracts protect customers (minimum revenue commitments, letters of credit) without needing model tariff; returns on socialized costs via FERC formula (~10% ROE) .
  • Rate case pipeline: KY base rate case intent (file on/after May 30; target new rates Jan 1, 2026); PA evaluating timing; RI planning Q4 2025 case .

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus (Q1 2025)Actual (Q1 2025)Surprise
Primary EPS ($)$0.540*$0.60 +$0.060*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.319*$2.504 +$0.185*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$972.4*$1,028*+$55.6*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust: Given volume-driven upside (weather normalization plus transmission revenue) and continued capital deployment, Street may lift near-term EPS/EBITDA trajectories, while monitoring RI cost discipline and Corporate interest expense .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat on EPS/revenue/EBITDA with clear weather and volume drivers; ongoing EPS of $0.60 sets a constructive run-rate for meeting the $1.81 midpoint .
  • Guidance intact and tone confident (top half of 6–8% EPS CAGR), implying stable near-term revisions risk despite RI/corporate headwinds .
  • Data-center pipeline is accelerating in PA/KY with protective ESAs; incremental T&D/Gen CapEx provides growth optionality and customer bill relief via transmission socialization .
  • KY generation CPCN and rate case timeline are near-term catalysts; potential coal retirement timing flexibility supports resource adequacy if load materializes .
  • Financing overhang manageable: ATM in place, modest 2025 equity ($400–$500M) versus plan scale; strong FFO/debt policy sustained (16–18%) .
  • Watch battery tariffs and RI operating costs; management is proactively mitigating tariff risks and driving IT/O&M efficiencies .
  • Trading lens: Positive revisions skew from beats and reaffirmed guidance; event path includes KY CPCN hearing/decision and data-center announcements, which can re-rate the growth narrative .