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Prairie Operating Co. (PROP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $77.7 million grew ~15% QoQ, but missed Wall Street consensus of $87.1 million; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $56.3 million, a >45% QoQ increase and above the $43.7 million consensus, as production ramp and optimization offset price/mix and cost headwinds . Revenue consensus, EPS consensus and EBITDA consensus marked with asterisks are from S&P Global estimates.*
  • GAAP loss per share was $(0.44), driven by preferred dividends and remeasurement items, while S&P “Primary EPS” actual printed at $0.53 versus a $0.32 consensus; comparability is limited given capital structure effects and metric definitions .*
  • Production reached a record 23,029 Boe/d (52% oil), with a current run-rate near ~27,000 Boe/d reflecting well turn-in-line cadence and workover benefits; guidance for 2025 production, capex and Adjusted EBITDA was reaffirmed .
  • Near-term stock catalysts include the EBITDA beat, visible production ramp into Q4 from Noble/Simpson/Rusch pads, and expanded hedging through 2028 that reduces downside commodity risk .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record total production of 23,029 Boe/d and a current production rate of ~27,000 net Boe/d as Noble came online and Simpson slated for Q4, supporting exit-rate visibility .
  • Optimization program delivered tangible uplift: 31 workovers completed by Q3 and plungers installed across 183 wells, driving an average oil production increase of 12.6% per well .
  • Management emphasized a clear, disciplined strategy: “We’re focused on building long-term shareholder value through a combination of high-return organic development, continued operational optimization, and selective, accretive acquisitions” — Edward Kovalik, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue missed consensus ($77.7m vs $87.1m*), despite QoQ growth; commodity realizations fell sequentially (oil $58.70/bbl vs $65.66 in Q2), pressuring topline relative to estimates .*
  • Lease operating expense per Boe increased QoQ to $7.25 (from $5.92), and interest expense remained elevated ($9.0m), tightening GAAP profitability despite operational momentum .
  • GAAP net loss to common shareholders of $22.5m and $(0.44) loss per share reflect preferred dividends and $19.986m remeasurement of Series F preferred, complicating EPS comparability and potentially causing headline confusion versus S&P “Primary EPS” .

Financial Results

Summary vs Prior Quarter

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$68.1 $77.7
GAAP EPS ($)$1.04 basic; $0.18 diluted $(0.44) basic & diluted
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$38.6 $56.3
Average Realized Price (per MBoe, excl derivatives) ($)$35.55 $36.68
Average Sales Volumes per day (Boe/d)21,052 23,029

Estimates vs Actuals (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$87.05*$77.72
Primary EPS ($)$0.317*$0.530*; Reported GAAP EPS $(0.44)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$43.7*$56.3 (Adjusted EBITDA)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue and Production Mix

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Oil Revenue ($USD Millions)$57.94 $64.91
Natural Gas Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.08 $7.57
NGL Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.08 $5.24
Total Production (MBoe)1,916 2,120
Oil Volumes (MBbls)883 1,106
Gas Volumes (MMcf)3,388 3,513
NGL Volumes (MBbls)469 428
Realized Price Oil (ex-derivatives) ($/Bbl)$65.66 $58.70
Realized Price Gas (ex-derivatives) ($/Mcf)$1.80 $2.15
Realized Price NGL (ex-derivatives) ($/Bbl)$8.70 $12.27

KPIs and Cost Metrics

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
LOE per Boe ($)$5.92 $7.25
G&A per Boe ($)$8.58 $5.79
Transportation & Processing per Boe ($)$1.17 $1.04
Ad Valorem & Production Taxes per Boe ($)$3.35 $2.21
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$56.6 $69.6
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$9.7 $57.7
Oil % of Boe~50% ~52%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Average Daily Production (Boe/d)FY 202524,000–26,000 24,000–26,000 Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$260–$280 $260–$280 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$240–$260 $240–$260 Maintained
Hedging Coverage and Prices2025–2028Initiated program post Bayswater Expanded; ~$60/bbl through 2025–2028, ~$4/MMBtu through 2027 Expanded/Enhanced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: The Q3 2025 earnings call was scheduled for Nov. 17, 2025; a full transcript was not available at time of writing. Scheduling references: and .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Production Ramp & Pad ExecutionQ2: 18 drilled/9 completed; Rusch 11-well pad, U-shaped laterals; turn-in-line acceleration planned; ~21,052 Boe/d Noble fully online; Simpson completions finalizing for Q4; Rusch turned to sales; current ~27,000 Boe/d Improving cadence; higher exit-rate confidence
Optimization (Plungers/Workovers)Q2: 30 plunger lift installs; initial workovers underway 183 plunger installs; 31 workovers completed to date; +12.6% avg oil uplift per well Scaling optimization across base, boosting productivity
Hedging StrategyQ2: Program initiated, strong coverage through 2028 Expanded hedges; ~$60/bbl and ~$4/MMBtu locked through 2027–2028 Risk mitigation strengthened
Costs and MarginQ2: LOE $5.92/Boe; G&A $8.58/Boe; Adjusted EBITDA $38.6m LOE $7.25/Boe; G&A $5.79/Boe; Adjusted EBITDA $56.3m Mixed unit costs but margin stronger on volume/optimization
Acquisitions/InventoryQ2: ~>$600m assets acquired; expanding inventory Two bolt-on acquisitions; +11 net locations and 3,400 net acres Continued accretive consolidation

Additional Q3 press releases: Earnings release date announcement (Nov. 13, 2025) ; Operations update (Sept. 2, 2025) .

Management Commentary

  • “With the Bayswater transition now complete, Prairie has assumed full operational control and is running at full capacity across our expanded DJ Basin footprint.” — Edward Kovalik, Chairman and CEO .
  • “Looking ahead, our strategy remains clear and disciplined… high-return organic development, continued operational optimization, and selective, accretive acquisitions.” — Edward Kovalik .
  • Q3 operational highlights included turning nine Opal Coalbank DUCs to sales (avg IP30 ~525 Boe/d per well), completion of the 11-well Rusch pad, Noble pad online, and workover/plunger campaigns improving base production .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q3 2025 conference call transcript was not available at time of writing; call scheduled for Nov. 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM ET (8:00 AM CT) with webcast access from the company’s site .
  • For context, the Q2 2025 conference call emphasized production ramp (plan to turn 35 wells in 2025 with most in 2H), optimization initiatives (gas-assisted plungers), and liquids mix trending toward ~75% of total liquids, supporting margin trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Consensus $87.05m vs actual $77.72m — revenue miss linked to softer oil realizations ($58.70/bbl vs $65.66 in Q2) and mix, despite volume growth .*
  • EBITDA: Consensus $43.7m vs Adjusted EBITDA $56.3m — beat driven by higher volumes and base optimization (workovers/plungers), partially offset by higher LOE/Boe .*
  • EPS: S&P “Primary EPS” actual $0.53 vs consensus $0.32 suggests an estimate beat on that measure, but reported GAAP EPS was $(0.44) due to preferred dividends and remeasurement; investors should reconcile metric definitions before drawing conclusions .*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Production momentum is clear and accelerating into Q4 with Noble online and Simpson near-term; exit-rate should benefit from Rusch turn-in-line and ongoing base optimization — supportive for near-term trading into catalysts .
  • Despite a revenue miss, Adjusted EBITDA materially beat consensus, highlighting operating leverage and optimization efficacy; this can underpin estimate revisions on EBITDA and cash flow .*
  • Cost profile mixed: G&A per Boe improved meaningfully QoQ, while LOE per Boe increased; watch unit costs vs. scale as more wells come online .
  • Expanded hedging through 2028 reduces downside commodity risk and stabilizes cash generation; helpful for medium-term thesis and credit metrics .
  • Capital intensity remains high (Q3 capex ~$69.6m); track returns on new pads (IP30, decline behavior) and unit economics to validate reinvestment discipline .
  • GAAP EPS is distorted by preferred dividends and remeasurement; anchor valuation/comp models on cash flow and Adjusted EBITDA, but be explicit about capital structure impacts on per-share metrics .
  • Guidance reaffirmed for FY25 (production, capex, Adjusted EBITDA), indicating confidence in execution; no negative guidance surprise supports sentiment into year-end .

Additional Source Documents:

  • Q3 2025 8-K earnings press release and exhibits .
  • Q2 2025 8-K earnings press release and exhibits .
  • Q3 press release (GlobeNewswire) .
  • Q3 earnings call scheduling press release .
  • Operations update press release (Sept. 2, 2025) .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (context) .

S&P Global estimates used: Primary EPS Consensus Mean, Revenue Consensus Mean, EBITDA Consensus Mean, Primary EPS - # of Estimates, Revenue - # of Estimates for Q3 2025.*