Patterson-UTI Energy - Q2 2023
July 27, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Patterson-UTI Energy second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press star one. Thank you. Mike Drickamer, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Mike Drickamer (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Cheryl. Good morning. On behalf of Patterson-UTI Energy, I'd like to welcome you to today's conference call to discuss the results for the three months ended June 13th 2023. Participating today's call will be Andy Hendricks, Chief Executive Officer, Andy Smith, Chief Financial Officer, and Mike Holcomb, Chief Operating Officer. A quick reminder that statements made in this conference call that state the company's or management's plans, intentions, targets, beliefs, expectations, or predictions for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as disclosed in the company's SEC filings, which could cause the company's actual results to differ materially. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement. Statements made in this conference call include non-GAAP financial measures.
Required reconciliations to GAAP financial measures are included on our website, patenergy.com, and in the company's press release issued prior to this conference call. Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Andy Hendricks for some opening remarks. Andy?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks, Mike. Good morning, and welcome to Patterson-UTI's second quarter conference call. Our drilling business performed very well, with sequential increases in both revenues and margins. Contract renewals favorably impacted our average revenue and adjusted margin on a per-day basis, offsetting the slight decline in our rig count. The improvement in contract drilling revenues and margin during the second quarter met our expectation, and our rig count outperformed the broader industry decrease. The decline in industry activity had a more significant impact on our pressure pumping business, with volatility and white space impacting results. The commodity price volatility in June led to some customers deciding to reduce drilling and/or completion activity.
For us, the decrease in frack activity occurred much faster than the decrease in our rig count, and as such, we believe our pressure pumping activity has already reached a trough here in July, while we expect additional rig releases over the next few weeks. Both rig count and frack activity will improve later in the year and in 2024. In contract drilling, we ended the second quarter with 127 active rigs and expect a reduction of approximately 10 rigs during the third quarter, of which 6 have already been released and 2 more are expected to occur within the next week. These releases are the result of notifications received primarily in late June.
Following these near-term rig releases, we expect our rig count to stabilize and are optimistic that the recent strength in oil prices may positively impact future drilling activity. Despite recent rig releases, day rates remain strong, with recent contract renewals for super-spec rigs in the low to mid-$30s, including ancillary revenue. As previously discussed, we continue to prioritize margins over activity. In pressure pumping, we believe the decline in activity is already behind us, and we have additional work scheduled to begin later this quarter. Based on current activity levels, we stacked a Tier 2 diesel spread in order to accelerate its conversion to a Tier 4 dual fuel.
When this conversion is complete, 10 of our 12 spreads will be dual fuel-capable, including 4 spreads that will be Tier 4 dual fuel, which positions us to take advantage of what we expect to be increasing completion activity later in the year and in 2024. Pressure pumping pricing has been challenged recently, given the decrease in activity. The market pricing for dedicated work has held up better than spot work. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy Smith, who will review the financial results for the second quarter.
Andy Smith (CFO)
Thanks, Andy. Net income for the second quarter was $84.6 million, or $0.40 per share, which included $7.9 million of merger and integration expense and $3.8 million of impairment expense in our E&P business. During the second quarter, we repurchased 1.8 million shares, which brings the total repurchases under our share repurchase program through the first half of the year to 7.4 million shares, or approximately 3.5% of the shares that were outstanding at the beginning of the year. Including $33.5 million dividends, we have returned approximately $126 million of cash to our shareholders through the first 6 months of 2023. At June 30th, $281 million remained under our share repurchase authorization.
However, our ability to repurchase shares during the third quarter may be limited due to the pending merger with NexTier. We remain committed to targeting a return of 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks. Through the first half of 2023, we are well ahead of this target as we opportunistically repurchased shares during the first quarter. Based on our outlook for the second half of the year, we are lowering our 2023 CapEx forecast to $485 million. This forecast is comprised of approximately $280 million of CapEx for contract drilling, $140 million for pressure pumping, $20 million for directional drilling, and $45 million for our other businesses and general corporate purposes.
In contract drilling, average adjusted rig margin per day in the U.S. increased $1,030 sequentially to $16,910, driven by a $1,190 increase in average rig revenue per day to $35,940. At June 30, 2023, we had term contracts for drilling rigs in the U.S. providing for approximately $760 million of future dayrate drilling revenue. Based on contracts currently in place in the U.S. we expect an average of 71 rigs operating under term contracts during the third quarter of 2023, and an average of 44 rigs operating under term contracts over the four quarters ending June 30, 2024.
In Colombia, second quarter contract drilling revenues were $12.9 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $3.7 million. For the third quarter in the U.S. we expect our average rig count will be 119 rigs. Average rig revenue per day is expected to be approximately $35,500, and average rig operating cost per day is expected to be $19,400, which reflects a slight increase in operating costs associated with the number of rigs being stacked this quarter. In Colombia, we expect to generate approximately $8.4 million of contract drilling revenue during the third quarter, with adjusted gross margin of approximately $2 million.
In pressure pumping during the second quarter, increased white space in the calendar and lower pricing on primarily spot market work, contributed to a sequential decrease in revenues and margins. Second quarter pressure pumping revenues were $250 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $53.8 million. For the third quarter, we plan to operate 11 spreads. We have had substantial white space in July, but we expect improving utilization through the remainder of the quarter. Maintaining enough crews for the increasing work will negatively impact margins in the third quarter. Accordingly, for the third quarter, pressure pumping revenues are expected to be approximately $230 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $37 million.
In our directional drilling segment, we experienced a decline in revenue and margin during the second quarter, due primarily to reduced activity levels. Directional drilling revenues were $55.1 million in the second quarter, with an adjusted gross margin of $7.8 million. For the third quarter, we expect directional drilling revenues to decrease to $52 million, although expected adjusted gross margin is expected to be approximately flat with the second quarter. In our other operations, which includes our rental, technology, and E&P businesses, revenues for the second quarter were $21.1 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $8.3 million. For the third quarter, we expect revenues and adjusted gross margin to be similar to the second quarter.
On a consolidated basis in the second quarter, the total depreciation, depletion, amortization, and impairment expense amounted to $127 million, including $3.8 million of impairment charges at our E&P business. For the third quarter, we expect total depreciation, depletion, amortization, and impairment expense of approximately $122 million. Selling, general, and administrative expense for the third quarter is expected to be approximately $31 million. Our effective tax rate for 2023 is expected to be approximately 17%, although we do not expect to pay any significant U.S. federal cash taxes. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Andy Hendricks.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks, Andy. Looking ahead, we are constructive on the overall U.S. onshore market. With WTI trading above $75 and natural gas futures above $3.50 in forward months, E&P operators should see significant improvement in their well economics. We expect that some operators will increase their activity in drilling and completions by year-end and into 2024. As 2025 is planned to be a big year for LNG export, we expect to see activity in gas basins recover in 2024 to previous levels or higher. With the increasing activity in the gas markets, we expect overall utilization and pricing to improve into next year across the U.S. The U.S. onshore market is poised to remain steady and strong for the foreseeable future.
We are very excited about the recent announced transactions that strengthen our position as a leading provider of drilling and completion services in the United States. The merger with NexTier will bring together two top-tier and technology-driven drilling and well completions businesses, creating a leading platform at the forefront of innovation. Ulterra's leading position in the PDC drill bit business will expand our operational and technology platform, expand our data portfolio, and broaden our geographic footprint through strong relationships with key international customers, especially in the Middle East. We continue to work toward closing these transactions and look forward to welcoming employees from both NexTier and Ulterra to the Patterson-UTI team. We'd like to thank all of our employees for their hard work, efforts, and successes to help provide the world with oil and gas for the products that make people's lives better.
Cheryl, we'd now like to open the call to questions.
Operator (participant)
To ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your first question is from Arun Jayaram of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram (Analyst)
Good morning, Andy and team. Andy, you guys have been able to kinda hold, you know, leading edge day rates at attractive levels. You mentioned low to mid-thirties. You know, as we think about, you know, 2024, you know, what's your confidence in being able to hold those types of day rates as we start thinking about kind of fine-tuning our model, you know, for next year?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Good morning, Arun. As we mentioned before, we're really focused on trying to maintain, you know, day rates and margins, not focused on the market share. You know, things have gotten a little bit more competitive recently when you're not on term contract. We decided, you know, we don't want to fight all these, and, you know, our rig count is going to go down a little bit. This is more of a softness that we see improving later in the year and certainly going into next year. You know, it's our objective to try to maintain pricing where we can.
When you look at the leading edge, you know, down into maybe low 30s to mid-30s, and that's including everything, it really hasn't come down that much. Let me hand it over to Mike Holcomb. He'll have some more comments on that too.
Mike Holcomb (COO)
I think the thing that I would add is, I mean, for us, leading edge this quarter is meant renewals with existing customers and clients. There's probably some work out in the market that's a bit more competitive than that. If you think about it looking forward, commodity prices stay in the more recent range going forward, then we're very confident that pricing is going to be stable with some upside as we move into the next year. I think there it really depends on.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
How many oil rigs do you think we could recover next year?
Mike Holcomb (COO)
Yeah, I don't think I know exactly what the number is going to go to next year, you know, you look at where the Baker Hughes rig count is now, where it was earlier in the year, you get recovery in gas, you know, you're probably pushing over 700 rigs in the first quarter next year. I, you know, I think it's just has upside from where we are.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Okay. I know it's a tough one, but I was curious of your thoughts. Thanks. Thanks, Andy.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from Kurt Hallead of Benchmark. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Hey, good morning.
Mike Holcomb (COO)
Good morning.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Appreciate the color commentary as always, and the perspectives on the outlook. Andy, in the context of, you know, the land drilling market, you know, it appears to me that, you know, the pricing dynamics have stabilized, and I think you've referenced kind of low 30s to mid-30s. Is there any incremental... You know, a couple of your peers have talked about maybe some incremental slippage in cash margin as some kind of rigs reprice that might have been priced at a higher level, kind of coming back into the current market elements. You know, when you think about your rig fleet, is everything that you've kind of booked out for the rest of this year, kind of solidly in that, you know, 32-35 range?
Do you see some slippage on cash margin going into the fourth quarter?
Mike Holcomb (COO)
you know, I think right now it's going to be pretty steady. I think we'll have to wait and see how fourth quarter plays out and what the rig count does towards the end of the fourth quarter.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Okay. Then, you know, just a follow-up in the context of the frack market as you add, you know, go from 11 crews to 12 crews here in the fourth quarter. If, you know, run the math on the revenue per crew that you expect in the third quarter, extrapolate that into the fourth, it looks like your fourth quarter revenue could, you know, approach second quarter levels. Logically, to me, that doesn't seem to make sense given the market dynamics. How should we think about, you know, the frack revenue progression going out again into fourth quarter?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
You know, I think, let me just kind of explain what happened in Q2 and what we, you know, seeing from so far in Q3. It's really about towards the end of Q2, we had an acceleration in white space, and we're starting off in July with a lot of white space in the calendar and pressure pumping, and it only warrants us working 11 spreads in the quarter. We're seeing more dedicated work layering in at the end of the third quarter, and so it makes sense to, you know, have that 12 spread working in the fourth. We're carrying some extra costs in the third, but then the schedule starts to round out a lot more towards the end of the third quarter and going into the fourth quarter with much less white space.
You know, a lot of what's happening right now, both, you know, for our drilling rigs and for our pressure pumping, is a result of where commodities were a couple of months ago. Commodities are in a different space right now, and so if you look forward a couple of months, if it stays at this level, then, you know, our schedule for the, for the frack looks a lot better.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. Appreciate that color. Thanks, Andy.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from Derek Podhaizer of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Mike Holcomb (COO)
Hey, good morning, guys. I know you talked about having some confidence that the rig count is going to bottom here. You talked, I think you said 10 rigs and six came off and two more, and we'll get two more after that. Are you just having conversations around starting rigs up in the fourth quarter or end of the third quarter? Are you signing rigs yet? Just a little more color around your confidence that we'll see rigs start being added as we get towards the end of the year.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
I think it's really just, you know, for us right now, it's based on, you know, where the commodities are trading. You know, our customers are gonna start their budget cycles here pretty soon. We feel like, you know, when commodities are at this level, and this has happened historically, that, you know, soon after their budget cycle or even sometimes in the middle, we start to get phone calls to accelerate things. If commodity stays where they are, you know, at these levels, I don't think you'll see the traditional Q4 that gets a little bit soft at the end. I think you'll see a fairly stable Q4 going into the end of the year.
Derek Podhaizer (VP)
Got it. That's helpful. Switching over to, to pressure pumping, obviously, white space is, is putting downward pressure on your profitability. Can you just talk about when you merge with NexTier and you fold into the NexTier integration strategy, how should we think about those synergies that you could unlock? Like, what are you missing today that NexTier provides, and where do you expect profitability to go as you continue to upgrade these assets to, to next gen, and you fold into the wellsite integration strategy that NexTier brings to the table?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Yeah. If you look at, our, you know, fleet of 12 spreads, their, you know, their performance for the customers they're working for is very strong. They're very competitive and, you know, we're gonna have 10 dual fuel spreads, so it's very marketable 12 spreads that we have. As we roll it into next year, what we're really gonna gain is the integration of all the other ancillary services that we can layer on there, whether it's wireline, you know, logistics, sand handling, things like that, you know, the, the, power fuel systems that they have for natural gas blending at the well site. We'll be able to layer that, you know, over time on our 12 spreads, and that's where, you know, we get a lot of upside on the 12 spreads that we're running today.
Derek Podhaizer (VP)
Great. Appreciate it. Turning back.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from Keith MacKey of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Keith MacKey (Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to start out on the pricing in the drilling market and what you're seeing in that low to mid-30s day rate. Can you just talk maybe about some of the regional dynamics? We heard earlier in the year, of course, that gas basins, particularly the Haynesville, were softening, more than oil basins, but with some of those rigs moving over to oil basins, maybe the pricing there has taken a hit. Can you just kind of run us through what you're seeing in the various basins for pricing and how you think that'll play out as we go through this modest recovery in rig counts?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Yeah, if you look through the year, you know, it really kind of started with the Haynesville getting soft and then other basins that feed into Henry Hub, like South Texas, MidCon, you know, those various basins that produce gas. That freed up rigs. Some of those rigs, you know, left gas basins and pushed into oil basins. We didn't actually move any rigs from gas into oil. You know, we're leaving our rigs where they are. We think, you know, there's upside there. The Northeast gas held pretty steady through most of the year, up until recently, I think they're feeling a little bit more stress in the Northeast.
I think there's a little bit of slowdown up there, not to the extent that we're seeing, you know, in the Haynesville and other areas tied into Henry Hub, but a little bit of stress up in the Northeast. I think, you know, that's gonna affect things for a little bit. Again, you know, just looking at the forward strip, if that holds in, all this stress gets relieved for our E&P customers and their economics start to improve. Mike, you want to add anything on that?
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Yeah, I think your concept's probably right. If you look at a hotter basin like out in Permian, if there's some new activity, it's gonna be competitive.
Mike Holcomb (COO)
Yeah, we really haven't participated in that. We've, you know, we've lost some bids out there due to price, but, you know, I think for us, it's been pretty stable across the markets, because we're not, you know, we're not gonna chase that work if it's not in the range that we're looking for.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
You know, when you're a large drilling contractor, and you work a large number of rigs, when you lose a few like we've had, and we're only down about 12% since the beginning of the year on our projections, you know, that's not a huge move for us. If you're a smaller drilling contractor, and you lose the same number of rigs, that's a big hit, and you've got to work hard to keep rigs working at that point. We get that there's, you know, competitive bids out there for rigs, but we don't chase that.
Keith MacKey (Analyst)
Got it. Makes sense. Just to follow up on the pressure pumping side, can you talk a little bit about the timing you expect for the Tier 4 dual fuel conversion to be in the field? Like, should we be thinking about Q4 as a full quarter of 12 spreads, or will that be partially through the quarter, would you say?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
I would think about it as Q4. You know, it does take a little bit of time and, you know, sometimes when we mobilize one of those, we may still be adding some more of the Tier 4 dual fuel trailers while we've started the work, but I'd still think about it as Q4.
Keith MacKey (Analyst)
Got it. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from Saurabh Pant of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Saurabh Pant (Analyst)
Hi, good morning, Andy and Andy.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Good morning.
Andy Smith (CFO)
Good morning.
Saurabh Pant (Analyst)
Hi, I guess I'll start with maybe a follow-up on your expectation for rig count, because it seems like there is some optimism that the industry might be adding rigs towards the latter part of this year. Just to get some clarity or clarification on that, it sounds like that optimism is more on the oil side, and the gas side of activity rebounded more of a 2024 thing, right? I just wanted to clarify on that, if that's correct. What is driving that? Is it more public versus private, or how should we think about who's driving that uptick in the latter part of this year?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
I'm actually upbeat on both oil and gas. When you look at Q4, you look at where the forward strip is, you know, we do actually have some gas customers that'll probably drill into where that forward strip is. We've got gas customers today that are already layering in hedges, you know, for next year at over $4. You know, while oil is certainly in a good spot right now, and I'm upbeat on that, I'm upbeat on both.
Mike Holcomb (COO)
Yeah, I think we've had conversations in some of the gas basins for Q4 startups. They're there for next year's programs, but they'll get started a little bit early. I think we're seeing it both. On the question on the publics and privates, I would just say the way to think about that is, the privates typically react a little quicker either direction. I wouldn't be surprised to, you know, that maybe Q4, they may outpace the publics, but, you know, there's gonna be a smaller switch, so it's. You know, I'm not sure we can really call it, but I think there's generally, you know, privates do react a little quicker.
Saurabh Pant (Analyst)
Right. Right. Okay. Okay, no, perfect. That's very helpful. Maybe a quick follow-up on the, on the pressure pumping side. You commented on activity, 11 spreads in the third quarter, going back to 12 in the fourth quarter. How should we think about that from a entering 2024 perspective? Because earlier in the year, you had contemplated putting a 13th frac spread out in the market. I know the mojo with NexTier is outstanding, so that might change dynamics, right? How should we think about 2024? Potentially, could you be adding that 13th frac spread if there's demand?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Listen, I appreciate that question. It's tough to talk about 2024 yet. We'll address that on the next call when we're looking at a much larger fleet of over 40 frac spreads.
Saurabh Pant (Analyst)
Okay. Now, I guess I got a little carried away with all that optimism. Okay. Okay, thank you. I turn it back.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from James Rollyson of Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
James Rollyson (Director of Oilfield Services Research)
Hey, good morning, guys. on the CapEx front, Andy, the remaining $485, is that relatively spread out over the back half, or is it kind of distributed differently than evenly?
Andy Smith (CFO)
No, it's pretty spread out over the back half.
James Rollyson (Director of Oilfield Services Research)
And, and as you-
Andy Smith (CFO)
A lot of that, again, a lot of that is, you know, as we've come back and some activity's fallen off, we've seen some maintenance CapEx come back. Some of the growth items that we had in there were sort of committed. We'll push a few out a little bit, it should be pretty spread over the back half of the year.
James Rollyson (Director of Oilfield Services Research)
I know this will be a tough question, as you think about where you're looking at activity based on the kind of, you know, optimistic view heading into next year, if you were talking apples and apples, do you think your CapEx next year would be flattish from this year or down just because you're not gonna be reactivating a number of rigs like you did in 2023?
Andy Smith (CFO)
Well, I mean, look, depends on. You know, maintenance CapEx will be what it is, right? I mean, it's obviously linear with, with activity. On the growth side, again, as we put rigs back to work, you know, it depends on your point of view as to where you think the rig count is going ultimately in 2024, as to whether or not we would need any kind of significant upgrades. Remember that a lot of the upgrades that we were doing this year were paid for by our customers in advance last year. Now we don't get to show that amount net. We show that amount gross in terms of our CapEx.
You know, again, depending upon your point of view going forward, you know, you can probably see it, you know, being something less on the growth side than what you would typically see or what you have seen in the typical last few years.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Yeah, especially considering, you know, some of these rigs worked recently, there's not as much CapEx necessary to put them back to work. I think, you know, considering if you're considering an inverse, you know, curve on activity moving up in 2024 versus what we had, you know, softening in 2023, then, you know, I think CapEx would be level to maybe even a little bit lower. I think we can be really efficient next year, apples to apples.
James Rollyson (Director of Oilfield Services Research)
Yep. Makes sense. Last thing, just kind of following up on pressure pumping. Obviously, you talked about in general and carrying some extra costs as you drop a fleet, which has obviously impacted profitability. Has there been any, you know, material change? Like, what have you seen from a pricing and, and kind of commercial terms dynamic in, in this, kind of air pocket of activity here recently?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
We've seen the dedicated pricing hold up relatively well. You know, maybe some small adjustments for some customers, but not a lot. It's really the spot market that's come down maybe 30% or so. That's... You know, it's the spot, and it's temporary, and if activity is increasing, like we think, in later in the year and into next year, that will reverse as well.
James Rollyson (Director of Oilfield Services Research)
Perfect. Thank you, guys.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks.
Derek Podhaizer (VP)
Thanks, Jim.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from John Daniel of Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
John Daniel (Founder)
Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. Just one question for you today. When you think of all of the E&P M&A that we've seen, where buyers rationalize activity, it would seem getting back to the activity highs, if you will, of late 2022, might be tough to do in 2024. I'm just curious if you're seeing anything that would sort of dispute that theory.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
You know, we are seeing some mergers on the E&P side, but at the same time, we're seeing some E&Ps sell off some of their properties, too, and, you know, some smaller companies come into play where they've got to prove up that acreage. I do think the rig count has a chance to get back to the highs of this year. You know, as you know, the rig count never moves up at the same rate it comes down, but that doesn't mean it can't.
John Daniel (Founder)
Right
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
get back to where it was. I think there's enough people with interest to drill out there, even with the mergers, to get back to where we were.
John Daniel (Founder)
Okay. Got it. Look, I'm gonna try to phrase this the right way. Let's say E&P A buys Company B, and they drill and drop a bunch of rigs. Are you seeing that E&P A person coming back and wanting to add back any of those rigs that they stated they were gonna drop? You follow that example?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Yeah. I don't know if I have a good example of that for us.
John Daniel (Founder)
Fair enough. Okay. Hey, that's all. Thanks for including me.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Thanks.
Derek Podhaizer (VP)
Thanks, John.
John Daniel (Founder)
Bye.
Operator (participant)
Your next question is from Connor Lynagh of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Connor Lynagh (Analyst)
Hey, thanks. Good morning. maybe I'll just follow up on John's first question there. Thinking about 2024 activity and whether or not it could get to the highs of this year, would you kind of frame gas activity as having a better chance of getting back to this year's levels with all of the LNG liquefaction capacity coming online? Or I guess, how would you frame whether gas or oil or both have a better chance of kind of getting back to this year's highs? Thanks.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
You know, it's gas that had the bigger downside earlier in the year, and I think it's gas that has the upside. I think, you know, I'm not discounting oil. Oil can still move up from where it is on, in terms of activity, but I think there's more upside on the gas. If you look at some of the, you know, the E&P transactions, let's say South Texas, you know, where you've had properties change hands, some of these E&Ps that have acquired some of these properties are now, you know, making plans to drill them, and we're part of those plans. You know, I still see some upside in gas. You know, I don't think of it just as Haynesville.
I think of it as the broader, you know, basins that are connected to Henry Hub, you know, from South Texas all the way into MidCon. I still think there's more upside on the gas side.
Connor Lynagh (Analyst)
Got it. Understood. Just on the, on the 50% total shareholder return target. Apologies if you guys have already made this clear, but I understand that once the, the deal is closed, that you guys in NexTier have endorsed that target moving forward. Are we to understand that Patterson is still maintaining that target kind of in the second half of this year as the two deals are slotted to close, or could M&A interrupt that 50% target in the second half of this year?
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Well, what we've said all along is, you know, our intent is to return 50% of the free cash flow to the shareholders, you know, we think of it more on an annualized basis. Whether you take that as the starting point from when we first said it in October last year, or you take it from, you know, the start of this year, we're ahead of the schedule, depending on... Doesn't matter where you take your starting point. We've already given back more than 50% of the cash to the shareholders on an annualized basis, we're ahead of that. I wouldn't worry about the M&A disrupting that, and certainly going forward with the combination of NexTier, you know, we still intend to return 50% of the free cash flow to shareholders.
Connor Lynagh (Analyst)
Great. That's really helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Andy Hendricks for closing remarks.
Andy Hendricks (CEO)
Great. I want to thank everybody who dialed into the Patterson-UTI Energy call this morning. We're excited about great things that are happening in the future, our call is gonna look very different next time. Thanks again for dialing in.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.