Patterson-UTI Energy - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Patterson-UTI Energy Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mike Sabella, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Mike Sabella (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Audra. Good morning, and welcome to Patterson-UTI's earnings conference call to discuss our third quarter 2023 results. With me today are Andy Hendricks, President and Chief Executive Officer; Andy Smith, Chief Financial Officer; Mike Holcomb, Chief Business Officer; and Matt Gillard, President of NexTier Completion Solutions. As a reminder, statements that are made in this conference call that refer to the company's or management's plans, intentions, targets, beliefs, expectations, or predictions for the future are considered forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as disclosed in the company's SEC filings, which could cause the company's actual results to differ materially. The company takes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Statements made in this conference call include non-GAAP financial measures.

The required reconciliations to GAAP financial measures are included on our website, patenergy.com, and in the company's press release issued prior to this conference call. I will now turn the call over to Andy Hendricks, Patterson-UTI's Chief Executive Officer.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and welcome to Patterson-UTI's third quarter conference call. Our third quarter was a monumental one as we closed on two transactions that reshaped our company. Today, we are positioned as one of the market leaders across multiple U.S. onshore service lines with a diverse suite of products and services and a strong presence across the entire U.S. land drilling and completions value chain. We believe these transactions create a long-term competitive advantage for our company, and our wide-reaching digital strategy will help us maximize the value potential for all stakeholders. We will look to use our integrated offering to deepen the partnerships with our customers and further differentiate ourselves on service, quality, and efficiency.

It's becoming increasingly difficult to replicate the success of the larger oil field services providers, and the market should continue to become more bifurcated going forward than it has been historically. We are looking for ways to help keep U.S. shale oil and natural gas competitive on a global basis, and a competitive U.S. shale is important to the success of our company. Helping our customers reach their goals is critical to allowing us to reach our own goals for a strong return on capital and to return a significant amount of capital back to our shareholders through this cycle. The NexTier and Ulterra transactions will help maximize our company's potential. We'd like to welcome the NexTier and Ulterra employees to the Patterson-UTI team.

In the short time we've all been together, we've been impressed by the talent at all levels of both organizations and excited about our shared future. We're working to ensure that we put our people in the right places to succeed. Our employees have worked tirelessly to make the integration a success and have remained dedicated to our company through what has certainly been a stressful period. We believe we have made Patterson-UTI an employer of choice in the oil field, which is already helping us attract and retain top talent and further driving our operational advantage. Operationally, we've already seen several successes by extending the NexTier well site integration footprint. We now have a NexTier Power Solutions natural gas fueling system working on a legacy Universal dual-fuel fleet. On another Universal fleet, we've added NexTier's wireline and last mile logistics.

We are confident completions well site integration will lead to improved well site efficiency, lower costs, and a safer environment for our employees, which will benefit both our company and our customers. It's been just two months since we closed the transaction, and we are already starting to see operational synergies. There are many other areas we see potential to create additional value through the merger for both Patterson-UTI and our customers. From the NexTier transaction alone, we have line of sight of at least $200 million in annualized synergies by the first quarter of 2025, and we are increasingly confident in our ability to meet or even exceed that target. We brought together two of the industry's leading well completion companies, and strong collaboration is already underway. On the Ulterra side, we also see opportunities for revenue synergies between our drilling services and Ulterra products.

As you heard us say before, we cannot, we cannot ignore the benefit of size and scale that comes with these transactions. This is true not only from an operational perspective, but also as we navigate capital markets that are starting to take another look at our sector. The larger market cap and market trading liquidity has expanded the universe of potential investors that can make or grow an investment in Patterson-UTI. We think this is a positive for all of our stakeholders. While our company is much bigger, our commitment to capital discipline is unchanged. Our capital allocation strategy is a major reason why we're excited to be considered by a broader group of investors. We like our strategy, and we think the message is being well-received. For those who've followed Patterson-UTI previously, our capital allocation strategy is largely unchanged.

The foundation starts with a strong balance sheet, as well as organic investing strategy that helps us offer our customers differentiated products, technologies, and services. On the balance sheet, we have an investment-grade credit rating at all three major rating agencies, a testament to the low leverage and significant free cash flow generating potential of the new company. We will use our strong capital structure to be opportunistic at all points in the cycle. On CapEx, we will always be disciplined in our investments and only look to put capital to work where we see opportunities to build or expand our differentiated technologies and services for our customers. We've already seen bifurcation in service quality amongst the peer group, and our CapEx strategy will look for ways to further advance our core competencies.

This should mean a more repeatable return and free cash flow profile for our company through the cycle, with a focus on both short-term and long-term free cash flow generation. To reiterate, we are committed to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders annually, and we have returned more than $1.2 billion to our shareholders over the past 10+ years. We remain committed to our dividend, and we have $281 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization. We believe this is an attractive capital allocation strategy that will allow us to invest in the future of Patterson-UTI to grow our competitive advantage, while also offering our investors a shareholder return program with both income through the dividend and accretion through any buyback. Now, moving on to the macro.

We are extremely excited about the outlook, and we think the behavior we've seen from our competitors and customers this year is yet another sign that we are operating in a more stable U.S. shale industry. Our customers are obviously still sensitive to commodity prices, but they are looking through volatility more than they have in the past. This allows us to better prepare, and relative to prior cycles, it creates a far more predictable outlook for our operations, and we think a more investable sector. For the third quarter, Patterson-UTI's U.S. drilling activity was in line with expectations, with an average of 120 rigs, including one rig that earned 44 standby days after the customer changed its drilling schedule. We ended the quarter with 117 active rigs in the U.S. and have seen our rig count improve to 118 today.

We expect to exit the year with 120 rigs and average 118 for the fourth quarter. Positive momentum should continue into 2024. Our revenue per day is still in the mid- to low-30s, an acknowledgment from our customers that they see value in our premium assets and high-quality services. Super-spec rig utilization remains very high, with activity for this class of rig outperforming the overall rig count. We think super-spec rig activity recovers before the idled lower-spec rigs, which should position Patterson-UTI to outperform the expected recovery over the next several quarters, even as we outperformed the market when the rig count moved lower this past year. On the frac side, there was slightly more white space in Q3 than we were anticipating, as we saw one-off disruptions from several customers.

We continue to mostly see pricing discipline in the frac market, particularly among the dedicated natural gas powered portion of our fleet, where we have the highest returns. As we have said previously, out of our fleet of 3.3 million horsepower, we are choosing to stack some equipment before working at pricing that does not meet our threshold, and we continue to believe that is the right thing for our company. We're using any downtime to maintain our equipment, where appropriate, and prepare for an increase in activity in 2024. This should put us at an advantage as we enter 2024 with a fleet that is more readily available for deployment relative to our peers. The long-term outlook remains positive in our view, even more so considering the delay in activity recovery we have so far seen for our customers.

Oil prices have risen on the back of OPEC supply cuts, but importantly, absent a major macro event, we believe the global balance will need U.S. shale production to grow modestly over the next several years. U.S. shale activity likely needs to stabilize just to keep production flat. The delayed activity response so far should mean activity will have to catch up with deferred activity, which should be a tailwind in 2024. On the natural gas side, we believe the shape of the forward strip is telling us that there needs to be more activity in the gas basins just to meet current natural gas demand. As we get closer to completion of new LNG export capacity later next year and into 2025, we will likely need to see natural gas activity rise again.

In short, we remain optimistic for both the drilling and completions markets, given current commodity prices and the view that we will need a modest increase in U.S. shale oil and natural gas production over the next several years. Meanwhile, the recent slowdown of fracked activity is likely to accelerate attrition beyond what service providers were otherwise preparing for this year across the industry. Additionally, we believe the slowdown has deferred some investments in new equipment. Roughly 2/3 of the industry fleet operating in the U.S. today can be powered by natural gas, and the slowing pace of investment by service providers likely means there's a longer runway to fully replacing the diesel portion of the industry asset base. For our next year completion segment, if we continue to see strong returns, we will still plan to continue to invest to upgrade our fleet at a measured pace.

Any new capacity we bring into the market would likely be 100% natural gas powered and would be replacement horsepower for equipment that is reaching the end of its useful life. More broadly, the industry likely needs to see around 1.5 million horsepower of new builds per year just to keep horsepower flat, and has been considerably below that over the past several years combined. In short, the frac fundamentals appear to be positioned to remain very strong over the next several years. Regarding international opportunity, I want to be clear that our priorities remain continued capital discipline and returning cash to shareholders.... Within our drilling and completion businesses, we occasionally participate in discussions for opportunities in international markets, as we have for years.

But for us to deploy capital, we would need to see a compelling opportunity that has a strong probability of acceptable and accretive returns for our differentiated products and services. And to date, we have not found an opportunity that makes sense for our company and for our shareholders. Therefore, our current pace of international expansion will be primarily focused on Ulterra's previously announced plans in the Middle East and South America, as we believe that is in the best interest of our shareholders. I'll now turn it over to Andy Smith, who will discuss financial results for the third quarter.

Andy Smith (CFO)

Thanks, Andy. The reported financial results for the third quarter include 48 days from Ulterra after that acquisition closed on August 14th and 30 days of NexTier, after that merger closed on September 1st. Total reported revenue for the quarter was just over $1 billion. We reported a small net income attributable to common shareholders, which was essentially break even on a per share basis. This included $70 million in merger and integration expenses, partially offset by the recognition of $29 million of previously deferred revenue, which became recognizable after the customer changed its drilling schedule. Our adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders was $55 million, or $0.20 per share. This excludes the merger and integration expenses, includes the previously deferred revenue, and assumes a 21% federal statutory tax rate.

Adjusted EBITDA totaled $277 million, which also excludes the previously mentioned merger and integration expenses, and includes the previously deferred revenue. Our weighted average share count was 280 million shares during Q3, and we exited the quarter with 417 million shares outstanding. Through the third quarter, we have returned $191 million to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Our board has approved an 8-cent per share dividend for Q4, and we have $281 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization. We intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders annually, consistent with our previous capital allocation strategy.

Through the third quarter, we have returned more than 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders, and given where the share price is today, we will likely repurchase shares in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, we resegmented our reporting this quarter to better reflect the way we manage our business. Our new drilling services segment includes the legacy contract drilling and directional drilling segments. It also includes our Current Power, electrical, and automation equipment, and Warrior drilling rig equipment businesses, both of which were previously reported as other operations. During the third quarter, drilling services revenue was $489 million, which includes the recognition of $29 million in previously deferred revenue. Drilling services gross margin totaled $209 million during the quarter. Direct operating costs included $9 million associated with insurance reserve adjustments and inventory write-downs.

In U.S. contract drilling, we totaled 11,009 operating days, including one rig that earned 44 days on standby after the customer changed its drilling schedule. Average rig revenue per day increased to $38,110, with the previously deferred revenue item positively impacting reported revenue per day by $2,630. Average rig operating costs per day were $19,870, including $790 per day in costs associated with the previously mentioned insurance reserve adjustments and inventory write-downs. The average adjusted rig margin per day was $18,240, a $1,330 per day increase from the previous quarter.

At September 30th, we had term contracts for drilling rigs in the U.S., providing for approximately $760 million of future day rate drilling revenue. Based on contracts currently in place, we expect an average of 74 rigs operating under term contracts during the fourth quarter of 2023, and an average of 52 rigs operating under term contracts over the four quarters ending September 30th, 2024. In our other drilling services businesses, which is mostly international contract drilling and directional drilling, third quarter revenue was $69 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $8 million. For the fourth quarter in U.S. contract drilling, we expect to average 118 active rigs and exit the quarter with 120 rigs operating.

We expect an adjusted gross margin of $16,100 per day, with revenue per day expected to average $35,400, and rig operating costs per day expected to average $19,300. Other drilling services revenue is expected to be $65 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $10 million. Our new completion services segment results include a full quarter of the company's legacy pressure pumping segment, as well as 30 days of results from NexTier Oilfield Solutions, beginning on September 1, 2023, and continuing through the end of the quarter. Additionally, effective September 1st, 2023, we began recording the cost to replace fluid ends as a direct operating cost rather than as a capital expenditure.

Reported revenue in our completion services segment totaled $460 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $91 million. During the quarter, segment revenue was impacted by lower customer activity and slightly lower pricing on certain products and services, with demand and pricing moving lower towards the end of the quarter before stabilizing thus far in Q4.... We think activity and pricing is likely to stay relatively steady at current levels through the rest of the year, aside from typical seasonality. For the fourth quarter, we expect completion services revenue of $950 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $200 million. Our drilling product segment results include 48 days from the recently acquired Ulterra Drilling Technologies, beginning on August 14, 2023, and continuing through the end of the quarter.

Additionally, upon closing the Ulterra transaction, in accordance with U.S. GAAP, we recorded certain assets and liabilities of Ulterra at fair value, which resulted in a step-up in value of the drill bits that Ulterra held at the time the transaction was closed. This accounting adjustment will continue to impact the reported results for Ulterra until we have fully consumed the impacted assets. Third quarter drilling products revenue totaled $47 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $14 million. During the quarter, the step-up in value increased the reported segment direct operating costs by $6 million and increased reported segment depreciation and amortization by $7 million, all of which was non-cash in nature. Given the declines in industry activity, we are pleased with the stability of the drilling product segment.

For the fourth quarter, we expect drilling products revenue of $90 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $30 million. We expect $10 million in non-cash direct operating costs associated with the step-up in value at Ulterra, without which the segment adjusted gross margin expectation would be $40 million. Other revenue totaled $17 million, with $6 million in adjusted gross margin. We expect fourth quarter other revenue and adjusted gross margin to be flat with the third quarter. Reported selling, general, and administrative expenses were $45 million in Q3, which includes partial periods for Ulterra and NexTier. For Q4, we expect SG&A expenses of $65 million. We expect SG&A to decline over the next year as we realize synergies from the merger with NexTier.

On a consolidated basis for the third quarter, total depreciation, depletion, amortization, and impairment expense totaled $198 million. For the fourth quarter, we expect total depreciation, depletion, amortization, and impairment expense of approximately $260 million. We expect fourth quarter cash taxes to be around $5 million. During Q3, total CapEx was $160 million, including $89 million in drilling services, $56 million in completion services, $8 million in drilling products, and $7 million in other and corporate. Our CapEx in Q4 is expected to be $190 million, comprised of $65 million for drilling services, $105 million for completion services, $15 million for drilling products, and $5 million for other and corporate.

The CapEx includes maintenance spending, as well as some investments in NexTier's Power Solutions, natural gas fueling business, and other upgrades on both the completions and drilling fleets. To date, we have delivered annualized synergies totaling almost $60 million from the NexTier transaction, with synergies only slightly impacting our Q3 results as the transaction closed late in the quarter. By the end of Q4, we anticipate reaching an annualized synergy run rate of more than $100 million, which will mostly be back-end weighted and will be more impactful to Q1 results. We are increasingly confident that we can meet or exceed our goal for $200 million in annual synergies associated with the NexTier merger by the first quarter of 2025. During the quarter, we successfully completed a 10-year, $400 million-dollar senior notes offering.

We closed Q3 with nothing drawn on our $600 million revolving credit facility, as well as $67 million in cash on hand. Subsequent to the close of the NexTier transaction and concurrent with our recent notes offering, we now have investment-grade credit ratings from all three major credit rating agencies. Maintaining an investment-grade capital structure is core to our capital allocation strategy, and we intend to continue to run our business in a way that allows us to maintain our investment-grade capital structure. I'll now turn it back to Andy for closing remarks.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thanks, Andy. With both the NexTier and Ulterra transactions now closed, our top priority is successful integration as we work to fully realize the value from these transactions. Our conviction on the rationale for these deals is stronger today than it's ever been, and we remain on track to achieve or even exceed $200 million in annual synergies from the NexTier transaction by the first quarter of 2025. Looking at the overall market, the macro setup is strong and the outlook is improving. We've already seen our rig activity inflect higher, and we expect this positive momentum will continue in 2024. Customers are optimistic at recent commodity prices, but are proceeding cautiously, which we think is a sign of a more stable U.S. shale industry and our belief that cycles will be shallower in the future.

Nonetheless, as these events play out, we think confidence in the cycle will improve, and over the long term, activity and production will need to increase to meet demand based on various long-term forecasts, including the IEA. Finally, while the macro setup gives us confidence in our future earnings power, our priorities will remain sustaining a high return on capital and free cash flow. We will remain capital disciplined with our CapEx, and we will look to invest in areas where we see opportunities to differentiate ourselves to our customers versus simply investing to grow capacity. This should help us to deliver strong returns and free cash flow through the cycle. We remain committed to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to investors through a combination of dividends and buybacks. This is the right strategy for our company and our industry.

Before we go to Q&A, I want to again acknowledge all of our employees who have continued to provide great service quality while working tirelessly to make these transactions successful. Many of our employees have gone above and beyond their day-to-day roles to help make Patterson-UTI an employer of choice, and we would not be here today without you, so thank you. With that, I'd like to now open the lines for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll take our first question from Scott Gruber at Citigroup.

Scott Gruber (Director)

Yes, good morning.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Morning, Scott.

Scott Gruber (Director)

I want to start on the completion segment. How many fleets do you have active today? And, you know, thinking about, you know, the recovery and that count, you know, just given your strategy, do you think E&Ps will be, you know, ready to pay more reasonable rates, you know, for your equipment in early 2021, such that you can kind of see a steady improvement in count, you know, following the improvement in rig count we're starting to see? Whereas, is there some risk that, you know, we get off to a slow start next year?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

So, I'll start with the horsepower. So we have 3.3 million horsepower. We're not calling out the fleets just because there's such a, you know, a range of size in the fleets that we operate. You know, we could be on a smaller fleet in the Midland Basin, or we could be doing a simul-frac in the Delaware, or it could be a big, you know, fleet over in the Haynesville. So, you know, calling out the number of fleets doesn't really help people out from that standpoint because they just vary in size, and they can actually fluctuate within a month or within a quarter. So we do have 3.3 million total horsepower. We did, we did park some of that horsepower as things slowed down with the white space in the calendar.

And like I mentioned earlier, you know, we're using that period just to do some maintenance to be ready for the inflection. Because we can already see the inflection in our own rig count at Patterson-UTI. And I realize we've been outperforming the market in general and with our drilling rig count, but you know, based on, you know, how commodity prices have been trading, especially the forward strip on natural gas, I think you'll see an inflection in the overall rig count. Now, you know, we're gonna see the traditional lag between the drilling rigs picking up, you know, and the frac operations, just because there's really no DUCs out there right now. You know, we've got frac spreads bumping into drilling rigs, and drilling rig activity does need to pick up so that frac activity can pick up.

So as we see those increases, you know, in early 2024, you know, we're already seeing the inflection now, but as we see the increases in early 2024 on the drilling side, you know, there's gonna be a bit of lag on the completion, but then you're gonna see completion activity pick up following drilling activity.

Scott Gruber (Director)

I got it. And I want to turn to, to CapEx next year. I know you guys haven't set the budget, but just kind of want to, want to get your thoughts on the moving pieces, you know, based upon the, the resegmentation. I, I have drilling services, you know, somewhere north of $300 for this year, maybe $320. So I want to see if, if that is, is a good number for next year, if that's down. And then, you know, will the, the completion services CapEx for next year kind of be in a, a high single-digit range? You know, next year, you talked about 8%-9% of revenues, so that's maybe kind of mid $300s.

And then, you know, if I, if I add in $65 for Ulterra, maybe $25 for other, I kind of get pretty close to consensus. Is it kind of... Wanted your early thoughts on, on the pieces and, and what it could total?

Andy Smith (CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Scott, this is Andy. You know, again, we haven't gone through a full budgeting process, but I think if you look at where our fourth quarter is coming in, not necessarily looking at the bucketing of it, but if you look at the total number, the sort of $190 guide, I would think that on a quarter-to-quarter basis in 2024, we're pretty comfortable in the $190-$200 million range on a quarterly basis.

Scott Gruber (Director)

Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We'll move next to Jim Rollyson at Raymond James.

Jim Rollyson (Director)

Hey, good morning, guys, and congrats on getting everything put together. Andy, when we think about the rig market, obviously, you're talking about your bottom's in and starting to improve. So your average rate this last quarter, average revenue per day, ex the one customer situation, was kind of in the mid-30s, and you've talked about low to mid-30s as kind of where the market is right now. Just trying to think through, as we roll through next year, your rig count presumably gradually improves. When do margins bottom, if you kind of look at where you're pricing rigs today versus what contracts are falling off? How do you think about that?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Hey, good morning, Jim. So, you know, first, I want to congratulate the drilling team. They've done a great job through 2023, managing the rig count. You know, this is really a testament to the service quality, to the continued rollout of technology that we are doing on our drilling rigs, and, you know, the partnerships we have with various customers out there that want to keep using us, even when things, you know, are getting a bit soft in the market. So that's going really well. In terms of, you know, leading-edge rates, you know, they were higher earlier in the year. They've softened a little bit, but they really haven't come down that much.

You know, I'd say it is mid to low thirties because it's more in the mid than it is in the low. So that's kind of how I characterize it. And I do expect that that will start to move up, you know, early next year as the rig count starts to push up as well, you know, past this inflection that we're seeing. So, you know, given that, I think, you know, margins are likely to bottom, you know, around Q1, maybe Q2. But, you know, we'll also have some extra costs in Q1 that we have on an annual basis. So that's, you know, that's likely to, to, kind of put that inflection on the margins around Q1.

Jim Rollyson (Director)

Yeah, that makes perfect sense. And as you put rigs back to work, you know, last year, until we got into late last year, you were putting things out in, you know, relatively short terms. And then I think around late third quarter, you started firming up a few things, which proved to be pretty fortuitous. But curious, as you're having conversations and putting rigs back to work right now, maybe the kind of tenor of the contracts that these guys are looking for.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Yeah, we're definitely, you know, weighing them to the shorter side, 'cause we do think we have upside in 2024, just based on the macro outlook going into 2025. So, you know, we're starting with some shorter contracts and or some agreements that allow us to move that up next year.

Jim Rollyson (Director)

Great. Thanks again for the color.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thanks, Jim.

Operator (participant)

And next, we'll move to Stephen Gengaro at Stifel.

Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. I guess two for me. The first, just your current take on sort of supply-demand fundamentals on the pressure pumping side. But maybe talk a little bit about the, if you can, any material bifurcation you're seeing between the lower emission assets and sort of traditional assets, and where your fleet stands right now.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

So, let me start off by saying, you know, I wanna thank everybody in our well completions business at Patterson-UTI for all the hard work they've been doing. You know, we closed on this merger on September 1st, about a month earlier than we had originally planned. And, you know, there was just so much work that was done by the teams to get ready for day one, and day one for us was on a Friday before a Labor Day weekend. And that weekend, we didn't miss any sand, we didn't miss any work. You know, trucks moved equipment, pumps kept pumping. Everything just worked like it was supposed to on day one.

And so hats off to the team on all the planning that was done through this integration process, which started right after we announced the Ulterra transaction, and we jumped into the integration work. So, integration is going very smoothly. You know, we're already talking about synergies. We have a high level of confidence in hitting the synergy number there. And so, you know, I got to start with that and just say thanks to everybody in our well completions team for everything they've done so far to get us where we are. Really excited about how this is going. You know, the market's another thing. So we've had a softening in the market, just really kind of tied to the overall rig count in the industry.

Like I mentioned earlier, you know, we've had frac spreads that are bumping up against drilling rigs with the softening in the market. So it's gonna take an increase in drilling activity to really move that. Now, when it comes to, you know, the pumps and the equipment and the fleets that have remained stickier in this softer market, it certainly is weighted to the primarily natural gas-fueled systems, you know, whether it's dual fuel or other. So, you know, that's certainly caused a bifurcation in the market. When you look at our well completions equipment, you know, roughly two-thirds of that is primarily natural gas powered. So we're in a really good position, and it's why, you know, we've seen a softening in the market, but certainly not any more than that.

So really excited about how, you know, our teams have done through this period, even with the white space that we've seen in the third quarter. You know, that's gonna adjust itself. You know, if you look forward, we are gonna see maybe a little bit of slowdown towards the end of Q4, based on the holiday period, maybe a little bit of winter baked into some of those projections, you know, just in case we get some cold weather. So we'll see how some of that plays out. But, you know, I'm very upbeat for, you know, what 2024 can hold going forward there, and, you know, excited for, you know, what we can offer to the customers.

Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)

Thank you. And I know it's been. Well, it's been two months now, I guess, since the deal closed. But has there been anything that has really stood out as you've kind of looked at the next year way of doing business on the completion side, that surprised you, that's materially different? Like, anything that's really jumped out since the merger closed that has been an upside or downside surprise for you?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

You know, I'm gonna start with the people. The people are great. We're excited to have them as part of the team, and they've got a lot of energy. There's a lot of excitement in trying to pull everything together, and everybody's just doing a fantastic job. A lot of high-quality individuals. And so that's where it starts, and really excited about that. You know, we were already familiar with the equipment. You know, we understood what NexTier was doing in terms of integrating services, whether it's wireline, last mile logistics, the Power Solutions with the natural gas, CNG and blending at the well site. You know, all these things have made NexTier successful, and we've watched that over the years.

You know, at Patterson-UTI, years ago, pre-COVID, we actually looked at adding wireline to our frac spread because we, we understand and we get it. You don't want $50 million worth of frac waiting on $1 million of wireline at the well site. And so that integration is important to efficiencies and just continuity of service and, and to keep pumps pumping. And so, you know, the ability to pull all this together and then bring those integration pieces into, you know, frac spreads that didn't have it previously, is powerful for this business. So excited about that.

Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)

Excellent. Thanks for the details.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Derek Podhaizer at Barclays.

Derek Podhaizer (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

To ask about the synergies. I know the guide sounds like you're gonna reach over $100 million by the end of the year. Seems ahead of schedule. Maybe can you break that down to the different categories you discussed? But now I believe it was SG&A on the cost side, you have the revenue synergies, and then you had some non-payroll spend. Maybe just an update there to help just expand on that synergy number.

Andy Smith (CFO)

Yeah. So, I would say that as we go through the fourth quarter, we are looking at right now on the synergy side, the SG&A synergies are probably about, again, a third of kind of the run rate that we'll see. And then probably, you know, about half of it's probably coming out of procurement at this point in time, and then the rest is the integrated revenue opportunities.

Derek Podhaizer (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the merger expense side, I believe it was $80 million, and I know you just posted $70 million. I thought there might have been a split between the expense side and the CapEx side. Can you just update us there? Clearly, there's a benefit to closing early. You're able to capture a lot of those one-time costs already. Should those all be fully recognized within this year, or will there be any leak over into 2024?

Andy Smith (CFO)

I'm sorry, you were asking... I got confused. Are you asking about expenses and CapEx?

Derek Podhaizer (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. I think the original $80 million one-time expenses, I thought that was split between some OpEx and CapEx, but just seeing that $70 million number this quarter, will that $80 million fully be recognized in 2023? And maybe just some updates on if it's OpEx, CapEx. I thought it was 65-15 split for the OpEx, CapEx.

Andy Smith (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, so, so a lot of it. So some of it will be will leak into 2024, and the reason for that is, again, as you go through some things, until you have defined plans on what you're gonna do around certain items, you're not really allowed to sort of recognize those expenses. So they will slip a little beyond 2023 and into 2024 as well.

Derek Podhaizer (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And then just, just a quick follow-up on the drilling side. You know, you're obviously coming off the bottom, but it seems like activity has been a little bit more lethargic than people originally thought it was gonna be. Can you maybe expand on the privates, the publics, maybe the different basins? You know, what surprises are the downside? I know you guys are constructive on 2024, you went over that, but why, why does it seem that we've been limping into year-end? Just maybe some more color around that.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

That's a great question. I think, you know, we've been having those discussions ourselves, but, you know, there's not any one particular area that you can, that you can call it out. It's, you know, a mixture of publics, a mixture of privates, that are both, being cautious and inflecting at the same time. So, you know, even our rig count adds that we're looking at going into year-end are a mixture of publics and privates. So it's, it's really kind of across the board. I think in the, natural gas plays, we're still seeing a little bit of hesitation to pick up, drilling rigs, and, and I can understand that. But I think that, you know, when you look at the forward strip, that's gonna work itself out, so maybe a little bit later than we initially thought.

But again, you know, when we're talking about our rig count, you know, at 218 now, and then, you know, possibly exiting the fourth quarter at 220, you know, this is an inflection in our rig count, and I think that you'll see the overall rig count kind of move higher a little bit later as well. I think a lot's gonna depend on, you know, how the overall commodity outlook is. And also, I think, you know, you've got a lot of publics that are really kind of waiting for some signals from their own investors to, to say, "Hey, are you gonna take advantage of these higher commodity prices, especially on the, on gas and the forward strip?" So I think those discussions are probably happening for our customers, with their investors. And, but I'm, I'm still optimistic about 2024.

You know, when we talk about natural gas and increases in activity in 2024, I've said this before, I still think it holds true, it's really kind of a two-step function. You're gonna see an initial step up, just kind of based on the forward strip. Will be some moderate growth there. You'll see another step up towards the end of 2024, getting ready for 2025 and the LNG takeaway.

Derek Podhaizer (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks for the call, guys. I'll turn it back.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Andy Smith (CFO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Kurt Hallead at Benchmark.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Morning.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

So, thanks for all the color and info and insight on how you guys pulled this thing together. Lot of hard work in a short period of time, for sure. So I'm kind of curious, as you look at the drilling products business, Andy, what kind of baseline growth, you know, should we be thinking about, you know, for that business, right? The vast majority of the business is U.S.-directed, so we can kinda map that out to, you know, rig count, right? And it sounds like you got some growth opportunities internationally. So I guess that question net-net is really kind of geared toward, outside of North America, what kind of growth do you expect in drilling products for 2024?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Kurt. So their growth is really gonna be tied to the overall rig count growth, you know, as we go forward into 2024. You know, roughly about 70% of their activity is tied to the U.S. rig count onshore. And so, you know, it's really gonna follow that trend. We're really excited about their performance. They're doing really well. You know, even with the softness in the market and the slowdown in the rig count, when you look at it on a revenue per rig basis, they're still holding up well. And so, you know, the team's doing a great job. The market is what it is, but I... You know, we are optimistic about the rig count in 2024, and so you're gonna see growth... from their business tied to that U.S. rig count growth in 2024.

On the international front, you know, roughly, you know, 30% is tied to international growth, and you know, we're excited about that potential there. You know, there's countries you know, outside of North America that you know, they've been in, and they're still increasing their footprints. And so, you know, that, that 30% could grow to be a bigger percentage of that slice of the pie through 2024 and into 2025, and we're excited to see how that's gonna play out.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

Great. Thanks. Really appreciate that. And, so, you know, it sounds like, you've reiterated, a lot of your, viewpoints that you had back in early September about an improvement in U.S. land drilling-related activity. I think back then you kind of, you know, gave an indication that you thought the U.S. land rig count would, get back above 700 sometime in, the latter part of 2024. Given how slow things have been progressing through the end of this year, do you still have a lot of conviction in, the rig count getting back to 700, or is it, you know, recent activity levels kind of, you know, pulling that back a little bit?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Yeah, it has been a little bit slower on the uptick than I thought it was gonna be for the end of this year. I think a lot of that has to do with budgets and, you know, our customers trying to work out exactly what their plans are, but I'm gonna stick with that. You know, I think that, if you look at the forward strip on natural gas and the way, you know, oil has behaved in general across 2023, we've had a couple of dips, but in general, you know, oil commodity prices have been at a healthy level, and, I think that trend is gonna continue. So, yeah, let's go with that. I think we're gonna be close to 700 towards the end of 2024, you know, as an industry rig count.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

Hey, appreciate that, Andy. Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

We'll move next to Keith Mackey at Calgary.

Keith Mackey (Director and Global Equity Research)

Hi, thanks, and good morning. Can we just first talk about the potential, I guess, cross-selling revenue synergies between drilling and pumping? Certainly, that's been a potential benefit of the recent transactions. But, Andy, how is that playing out relative to your expectations? Are there any notable wins or activities you could point to on that front as yet?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Yeah, that's a, that's a great question. You know, we've been in both businesses for a long time now, decades. I wouldn't, you know, characterize it as cross-selling per se, but what I do characterize it is strengthening the partnerships that we have with our customers. And when we announced these transactions, you know, we received nothing but positive feedback from customers. You know, we had longtime partners, you know, who have been our customers for decades, who called me up and said, "Look, you know, a stronger Patterson-UTI is good for us." And, you know, so having the strength to be able to, you know, address their needs across all these services has allowed us to have those conversations.

You know, I wouldn't necessarily, as I said, characterize it as cross-selling, but when you have those strong partnerships at a high level and now you have more capacity to service their needs, you know, that's, that's the bonus.

Keith Mackey (Director and Global Equity Research)

I see. Thanks for that color. Maybe just to follow up on your comment in the prepared remarks around... It was when you were talking about capital allocation strategy. You know, using a strong balance sheet to be opportunistic at all points through the cycle, you know, certainly have been so lately. But can you just expand on that comment a little bit more in terms of how you're thinking about, you know, being opportunistic through the cycle at all points?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

When we're talking about being opportunistic over cycles, we're talking about, you know, over the next five-10 years. Right now, we're focused on integration of the businesses. We still have some work to do, and we're focused on realizing these synergies of $200 million or greater on the synergy with the NexTier deal, and integrating the operations and, you know, working on supply chains, pieces as well. So that's, that's our primary focus. But, you know, historically, we have been, opportunistic, you know, through the cycles. You know, there's been a number of times when we've, you know, gone through dips in the cycle, and we've seen softening that, you know, we've had opportunities to do things with our balance sheet. But I would say, you know, right now, we're just focused on integration.

Keith Mackey (Director and Global Equity Research)

Got it. I'll leave it there. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Sean Mitchell at Daniel Energy Partners.

Sean Mitchell (CEO)

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Kind of as we see a lot around M&A over the last several weeks, as you see the E&P space consolidate, it would seem logical that the kind of consolidators here will want to work with suppliers who have scale. First, I would say, do you agree with this assessment? And then secondly, if so, do you think that pushes more consolidation in the service sector?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Well, the first part of your question, I think you answered yourself, and we believe that. You know, as, as you see some of these large E&Ps take on even you know, large E&Ps and become even larger in the space, you know, we believe they are gonna work with companies that have the scale to be able to service their needs, and we fit right into that. So we're excited about that potential. You know, we do see when these transactions on the E&P side happen, you get a pause in activity, but, then, you know, things start to pick up again. So, you know, we think those are good possibilities. But in terms of further M&A in the service space, you know, I think it's possible. You know, I don't wanna speculate because we're focused on integration right now.

Sean Mitchell (CEO)

Right.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

I do think there's probably some opportunity out there.

Sean Mitchell (CEO)

Maybe one more. Can you just address the labor market today, Andy, and specifically how you and the consolidated companies have managed labor this year as activity has moderated? And maybe provide us your thoughts on finding people today and the ability for the industry to scale up again, should that be necessary?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

You know, even over the last few years, you know, with the massive ramp-up in activity that we've had, we were able to cover all the work. And you know, we had to invest in, you know, the systems and the people for recruiting, and onboarding, and training to be able to do that. And it definitely was tougher over the last few years than it had been in previous, you know, upturns given the strength in the economy over the last few years. But you know, that investment that we've made allows us to get the people that we need to cover the work that's out there, and so we didn't miss any work for lack of people.

You know, this has only been a softening in the market, and we're expecting, you know, as we pass this inflection, to increase activity in 2024. And so, you know, with the moderated growth we're expecting in 2024, you know, versus the softening we had this year, I don't anticipate we're gonna have trouble, you know, adding staff back to do the work.

Sean Mitchell (CEO)

Okay. Thanks for answering this. Appreciate it.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Don Crist at Johnson Rice.

Don Crist (Senior Research Analyst)

Morning, thanks for letting me in here at the end. Andy, your previous comment about pressure pumping kind of bumping up against rigs, how do you think that plays out? I mean, it appears to us, looking from the outside, that the efficiencies on the pressure pumping side have kind of outpaced efficiencies on the rig side. Do you think that kind of results in a smaller pressure pumping fleet industry-wide going forward, or how do you... Can you talk to that just a little bit?

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Well, I think there's a couple of pieces to that question that I can touch on, so I appreciate it. One is, yeah, we are bumping up against the rigs, and so we do need an increase in rig activity. There's just really no DUCs out there, you know, at this point in the cycle and where we are from the softening, so, we do need the rig activity to pick up. But in terms of frac efficiency, you know, it's just been amazing what the teams across the industry have accomplished over the last few years in terms of frac efficiency, you know, for the top-tier players. You know, there's lots of anecdotes of pumping well over 20 hours a day.

Now, that being said, I'm not sure we have a lot of room to grow efficiency, so, I don't think we're gonna need less frac out there. I mean, we're not gonna pump 25 hours a day. So we're, you know, we're already at some pretty high levels of pump hours on a number of our fleets that are out there working, and they're just doing a great job. So you've seen that increasing efficiency over the last few years, but, it's, you know, I think efficiency will kind of slow at this point in terms of what we're gonna see across the industry. As well, I do think that, you know, as we come out of this softening in the market and we increase activity, you're gonna see a tighter frac market.

And, you know, we are gonna have to add some equipment to replace older equipment. It's gonna drive capital discipline across the sector. It's also gonna cause, you know, as you get into later 2024 to 2025, with natural gas demand, you know, with increasing activity, it's gonna cause pricing to move up at that point as well. And so, you know, we're gonna see tightness in the market from equipment standpoint, you know, as we start to get, you know, past the, the inflection point and activity moving up in 2024.

Don Crist (Senior Research Analyst)

I appreciate the color. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the conference over to Andy Hendricks for closing remarks.

Andy Hendricks (President and CEO)

Thank you. I just want to thank everybody for tuning in this morning. Once again, I want to thank the employees of Patterson-UTI. Y'all are doing an amazing job as we work through everything we're working through through these integrations over the last few months, and it's just been impressive to watch, you know, such high-caliber people work through all this. So thanks for what you're doing. Appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.