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PI

P10, Inc. (PX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • P10 delivered solid Q3: Revenue $75.9M (+2% y/y), FRE $36.0M (+3% y/y), FRE margin 47%, FPAUM $29.1B (+17% y/y); ANI declined to $28.6M due to higher cash interest post-2024 refinancing and Qualitas-related borrowing costs .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS slightly beat ($0.24 vs $0.232*) while revenue modestly missed ($75.9M vs $77.2M*); EBITDA missed estimates materially (actual $24.0M* vs $36.0M*) — focus remains on non-GAAP FRE/ANI metrics rather than EBITDA*.
  • Annual organic gross fundraising guidance raised from $4B to “closer to $5B” on strong YTD momentum ($4.3B gross organic FPAUM through Q3), with continued resilience in secondaries and NAV lending .
  • Capital return: Q3 repurchased 110,032 shares at $11.34; remaining authorization ≈$26M; quarterly dividend declared at $0.0375 per share (note transcript stated $0.033; press release/8-K shows $0.0375) — 25% dividend growth since inception .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: raised fundraising guidance, RCP Secondaries Fund V oversubscribed at $1.26B, NYSE Texas dual listing, and accelerating NAV lending/evergreen initiatives (Enhanced, Hark) supporting medium-term growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We have exceeded our 2025 organic gross fundraising guidance of $4 billion and now expect to close the year closer to $5 billion raised.” — CEO Luke Sarsfield .
    • Fee-paying AUM grew 17% y/y to $29.1B; FRR grew 4% y/y with a 47% FRE margin, underscoring revenue durability and disciplined cost management .
    • Strong platform momentum: RCP Secondary Fund V closed at $1.26B (oversubscribed, 13‑month raise) and NYSE Texas dual listing expanded investor engagement channels .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Adjusted Net Income fell 7% y/y to $28.6M, driven by higher cash interest from the Aug-2024 refinancing and Qualitas acquisition borrowing costs; Fully Diluted ANI/share slipped y/y to $0.24 .
    • Step-downs/expirations came in above initial expectations (now slightly above 5–7% for FY25), including early paydowns in credit and a large SMA expiration pulled forward from H1’26 into 2025 .
    • Minor disclosure inconsistencies: dividend per share stated as $0.033 on the call vs $0.0375 in the press release/8-K; total debt referenced as ~$398M by CFO vs $387M in the deck, requiring careful modeling alignment .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.7 (+2% y/y) $72.7 (+2% y/y) $75.9 (+2% y/y)
Fee-Related Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.6 (+4% y/y) $72.7 (+6% y/y) $75.9 (+4% y/y)
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$4.7 $4.2 $3.0
Fee-Related Earnings ($USD Millions)$30.7 $35.4 $36.0
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$23.5 $26.7 $28.6
FRE Margin (%)45% 49% 47%
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS ($)$0.04 $0.03 $0.02
Fully Diluted ANI per share ($)$0.20 $0.23 $0.24
Fee-Paying AUM ($USD Billions)$26.3 $28.9 $29.1

Segment/KPIs

MetricQ3 2025
Organic fundraising & deployments (gross FPAUM)$915M
Private Equity Solutions FPAUM adds$711M
Private Credit Solutions FPAUM adds$192M
Venture Capital Solutions FPAUM adds$12M
Step-downs & expirations (Q3)$673M
Catch-up fees (Q3)$0.37M (primary funds)
Average core fee rate (Q3; FY avg guided)103 bps (maintained)
AUM ($USD Billions, platform)$42.5B (as of Sep 30, 2025)
Cash & Equivalents≈$40M
Total Debt Outstanding~$398M (term $325M; rev $73M; -$11M post-Q3)
Share Repurchases (Q3)110,032 shares at $11.34; ~$26M authorization remaining

Vs Estimates (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue – Estimate ($M)*69.5*71.3*77.2*
Revenue – Actual ($M)67.7 72.7 75.9
Result vs Estimate*Miss (−$1.8M)*Beat (+$1.4M)*Miss (−$1.3M)*
EPS Normalized – Estimate ($)*0.206*0.204*0.232*
EPS Normalized – Actual ($)0.20 0.23 0.24
Result vs Estimate*Miss (−$0.006)*Beat (+$0.026)*Beat (+$0.008)*
EBITDA – Estimate ($M)*32.4*33.0*36.0*
EBITDA – Actual ($M)*24.8*19.4*24.0*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Organic Gross FundraisingFY 2025≥$4.0B “Closer to $5.0B” Raised
Core Fee Rate (avg)FY 2025~103 bps ~103 bps (maintained) Maintained
Step-downs & ExpirationsFY 20255%–7% of FPAUM; ~2/3 in H1 Slightly above 5%–7% Raised
Dividend per ShareQ3 payout$0.0375 (Q2 precedent) $0.0375 (Dec 19, 2025) Maintained (note call stated $0.033 )

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Private credit underwriting disciplineEmphasized rigorous risk-adjusted approach; expanding credit platform (Hark NAV, Enhanced evergreen, WTI venture debt, SBIC) “Not seeing deterioration… portfolios”; private credit <20% FPAUM; opportunity set robust Stable/Positive
NAV lending expansion (Hark)Hark deployments doubled y/y; planning Hark V later in year Continued traction; marketing next vintage; mainstreaming NAV finance Accelerating
Secondaries demandRCP SOF V near $1B by Q2; TruBridge launching secondaries RCP SOF V closed at $1.26B; commingled funds momentum (17 in market) Stronger
Qualitas synergies & US fundAcquisition closed in Q2; integration and cross-sell with RCP/Hark Launching Qualitas Funds US 1 (EU distribution, US investing) Expanding
Distribution channels (insurance/wealth/SMA)Building client solutions; larger pools, evergreen formats, SMA wins (SWF) Insurance traction; SMA early expiration replaced with larger mandate; cross-strategy LPs Broadening
Macro/M&A/IPO sensitivityLower sensitivity vs upper market; opportunity through secondaries and NAV More accommodative backdrop would benefit platform across PE/VC/credit Improving
Fee rate & catch-up feesCore fee ~103 bps; catch-up fees to expand in 2026–2027 Core fee 103 bps; Q3 catch-up modest ($0.37M) Steady

Management Commentary

  • “We have exceeded our 2025 organic gross fundraising guidance of $4 billion and now expect to close the year closer to $5 billion raised.” — Luke Sarsfield, CEO .
  • “Private credit represents less than 20% of our fee-paying AUM today… we are not seeing deterioration in our credit portfolios.” — Luke Sarsfield .
  • “FRR in the third quarter was $75.9 million (+4% y/y)… FRE was $36.0 million (+3% y/y)… FRE margin was 47%.” — Amanda Coussens, CFO .
  • “ANI declined primarily due to higher cash interest paid post our 2024 refinancing and borrowing costs associated with the Qualitas acquisition.” — Amanda Coussens .
  • “Qualitas Funds US 1 will invest primarily in the US and be marketed to European investors — a joint effort leveraging RCP sourcing.” — Luke Sarsfield .

Q&A Highlights

  • SMA Dynamics: Early expiration of a large SMA in 2025 (vs expected H1’26) was replaced by a larger LP commitment; included in FPAUM already .
  • Qualitas US Product: EU-distributed vehicle investing in US lower/mid-market, leveraging RCP portfolio construction; example of platform synergy .
  • Credit Platform Growth: Roadmap across direct lending, asset-based lending, distressed/opportunistic; immediate focus on Hark NAV, Enhanced evergreen, WTI venture debt, and SBIC lending .
  • Capital Return: $26M remaining repurchase authorization; ongoing dividend program (25% growth since 2022 inception) and balanced use of capital (M&A, debt paydown) .
  • Macro Tailwinds: Anticipated pick-up in M&A/IPOs would be broadly positive — near-term lift to credit deployment and amplified PE/VC returns .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 EPS beat modestly while revenue missed slightly; EBITDA meaningfully below consensus. Given P10’s business model, FRE/ANI remain the core operating metrics and were in line with management’s focus on mid-40s margins .
  • Consensus participation was limited (# of estimates: Revenue ~2; EPS ~4 in Q3), implying potential for post-print estimate revisions to reflect higher fundraising/guidance and persistent step-downs dynamics*.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Fundraising momentum is re-accelerating: guidance raised to “~$5B” for FY25 on strong QTD and Q4 pipeline (secondaries, NAV lending, cross-sell with Qualitas) .
  • Earnings quality anchored in fee durability: FRR/FRE growth with mid-40s margins and modest catch-up fees; focus on FRE/ANI over EBITDA for valuation comp .
  • Platform synergy is material: Qualitas US fund, RCP secondaries scale, and Hark NAV lending pipeline create diversified growth vectors with cross-channel distribution .
  • Step-downs/expirations elevated in FY25 but expected to normalize in 2026; recyclable credit capital and SMA expansions offset near-term drag .
  • Capital allocation remains balanced: buybacks opportunistic ($26M remaining), dividend sustained at $0.0375, and capacity preserved for disciplined M&A .
  • Modeling notes: prefer press release/8-K for dividend ($0.0375) and presentation for debt granularity ($387M deck vs $398M call); reconcile disclosures in forecasts .
  • Trading lens: Modest EPS beat and revenue miss suggest neutral near-term, but raised fundraising guidance, oversubscribed secondaries, and NAV lending acceleration are constructive for medium-term re-rating .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 2025)

  • Hark Capital provides $50M NAV facility to Pharos Capital (NAV finance momentum) .
  • Dual listing on NYSE Texas (founding member; broadened market engagement) .
  • RCP Advisors closes Secondary Opportunity Fund V at $1.26B (Q4 announcement; reinforces Q3 commentary) .

Cross-References

  • Q2 results and themes: Record $1.9B organic gross FPAUM; FRE margin ~49%; accelerating Hark deployments; TruBridge secondaries launch .
  • Q1 results and themes: Record $1.4B organic gross FPAUM; introduced AUM KPI (~$38–40B); increased dividend; Qualitas acquisition closed .