Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Papa John's is accelerating its domestic development, planning to increase net new units in North America by over 20% in 2024 compared to 2023's 57 net new units. This focus on domestic expansion, where one domestic opening equals four international openings in value due to higher royalties and average unit volumes (AUVs), is expected to drive significant value over the next five years. Franchisees are excited about the development incentives and strong returns, with AUVs increasing from $850,000 to $1.2 million over the last five years.
- Significant marketing initiatives launching in Q2 2024 are expected to drive strong comparable sales growth. These initiatives include a 20% increase in media spending, a new advertising campaign, and new product innovations. The shift to a national advertising strategy, which has a 25% higher return on investment than local advertising, will improve marketing efficiency and effectiveness. The company is confident that despite reducing total advertising spend from 8% to 6%, the increased efficiency will lead to a significant improvement in impact.
- Operational improvements are boosting profitability, with restaurant margins improving by 330 basis points year-over-year in Q4. This, alongside the growth in aggregator channel sales by over 50% year-over-year, indicates strong operational execution and successful digital strategy. Papa John's was the #3 brand ordered on Uber Eats for the Super Bowl, highlighting its strong presence on aggregator platforms.
- Negative same-store sales in Q1 2024: Papa John's expects comps to be down approximately 1% for the first eight weeks of the quarter, citing a more cautious consumer placing pressure on transactions through their organic delivery channel, even as domestic third-party aggregator sales accelerate.
- International unit growth slowdown due to geopolitical conflicts and strategic closures: The Middle East, which represents about 20% of the company's international footprint with around 450 units, is experiencing conflicts that impact development. Additionally, Papa John's plans to close approximately 50 underperforming company-owned restaurants in the UK in the second quarter of 2024, which will reduce their international unit count.
- Increased promotional activity and competitive pricing pressures may impact margins: Papa John's is running aggressive promotions, such as an $8.99 large one-topping deal, to compete with competitors offering aggressive pricing. This indicates potential pressure on margins as the company fights for transactions in a competitive market.
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Same-Store Sales Trends
Q: How are current same-store sales trends and what's changed quarter-to-date?
A: The company experienced industry softness in January but saw strength in February, becoming the #3 brand ordered on Uber Eats for the Super Bowl. They anticipated Q1 would be the toughest quarter, with plans for strong comp sales growth taking effect in Q2 when a 20% increase in media spending and a new advertising campaign will launch, along with new innovations in April. Despite a soft start in January, they see strong sales momentum ahead. -
U.K. Store Closures
Q: Why are you closing 50 company-operated units in the U.K. despite improving trends?
A: The 50 restaurants being closed are company stores unlikely to reach profitability due to factors like trade zones moving. They won't benefit from better operations, so the decision was made to close them. The closures will be immediately accretive to income as these are negative profit restaurants. Closing them will make remaining stores higher volume and more profitable, with some sales transferring to other restaurants. -
Domestic Development Incentives
Q: Are franchisees increasing commitments due to new U.S. development incentives?
A: There's significant excitement among franchisees. In 2023, they delivered 57 net new units in North America and plan to grow that by at least 20% in 2024. The development incentive has been extended into 2025, offering 5 years of national marketing fund relief for stores built in 2024 and 3 years for those in 2025. The company is hopeful that domestic development will help close any gaps, noting that one domestic opening equals four international openings in financial impact. -
International Development Outlook
Q: How quickly can international development reaccelerate given challenges in key markets?
A: Three markets—U.K., Russia, and the Middle East—are impacting openings over the next couple of years. The U.K. had been opening about 50 units a year, but some weren't optimal, leading to strategic closures. They are now ensuring new international openings undergo the same scrutiny as domestic ones. Once optimization is complete and geopolitical situations improve, they are confident in their long-term international growth rate. -
Consumer Spending and Value Strategy
Q: What changes are you seeing in consumer behavior, and how are you addressing value?
A: There's been consumer spending softness across industries, which isn't surprising due to macroeconomic factors. Pizza offers great value relative to other segments, and the gap has never been greater. They're balancing premium and value, currently running a national promotion: an $8.99 large one-topping pizza, the most aggressive deal since the CEO joined. While competing for transactions, they continue to deliver premium innovation and maintain a balanced strategy. -
Shift in Advertising Strategy
Q: Can national advertising offset reduced local spend from 8% to 6%?
A: National advertising yields over a 25% improvement in return on ad spend compared to local. By reducing total advertising investment by 25% and gaining a 25% pickup, they believe the impact is at least comparable. New tools and a media partner enhance targeting and efficiency, increasing confidence despite the reduction from 8% to 6%. Some franchisees will continue spending above 6% due to existing local partnerships. -
Innovation Pipeline
Q: Are new products coming in 2024 that could be significant?
A: Yes, they're launching a new innovation in April across multiple platforms: pizza, Papadias, and Papa Bites. This will be advertised holistically to raise awareness of products with less household penetration. They're also innovating in marketing, loyalty, and promotional strategies to drive both pizza sales and additional offerings.
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