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DQ

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 revenue of $15.0M, up 509% YoY, driven primarily by D‑Wave’s first Advantage system sale; GAAP gross margin surged to 92.5% and GAAP gross profit to $13.9M as mix shifted to a high‑margin system sale .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $15.0M vs $10.5M*, EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.036)*; strong operational performance but with lumpy mix (bookings down 64% YoY to $1.6M) .
  • Liquidity inflected: quarter‑end cash hit a record $304.3M after $146.2M raised in Q1 via ATM; management believes cash is sufficient to reach profitability .
  • Strategic catalysts: Advantage2 general availability targeted by end of Q2, expanded system‑sale pipeline (pricing discussed publicly at $20–$40M; long sales cycles), and new quantum+AI/blockchain research avenues that could favor on‑prem systems .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • System sale unlocked step‑function revenue and margin: ~$12.6M of Q1 revenue from the Jülich Advantage system, with consolidated GAAP gross margin at 92.5% and adjusted EBITDA loss roughly halved YoY to $(6.1)M .
    • Balance sheet strength: Q1 cash of $304.3M (record), after $146.2M raised in the quarter; management reiterated cash is sufficient to reach profitability .
    • Technology momentum: management emphasized first peer‑reviewed “quantum supremacy” on a useful real‑world problem and Advantage2 milestones (fast anneal, error mitigation), with GA expected by end of Q2; quote: “The first quarter of 2025 was arguably the most significant in D‑Wave’s history…” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Demand leading indicators softened: bookings fell 64% YoY to $1.6M; professional services drove over 50% of bookings, signaling pipeline still in on‑ramp stages .
    • Deferred revenue stepped down: total deferred revenue fell from $19.4M at 12/31/24 to $6.2M at 3/31/25 as Q4 bookings converted; highlights revenue lumpiness tied to system sale timing .
    • U.S. government adoption remains slow versus international interest; management reiterated a domestic “gate‑model bias,” though tone is “hopeful” under the new administration .

Financial Results

  • Income statement and profitability vs prior quarters
MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$1.9 $2.3 $15.0
GAAP Gross Profit ($M)$1.0 $1.5 $13.9
GAAP Gross Margin (%)55.8% 63.8% 92.5%
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)$(0.11) $(0.37) $(0.02)
Adjusted EBITDA Loss (Non‑GAAP, $M)$(13.8) $(15.3) $(6.1)
  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus
MetricActual (Q1 2025)Consensus (Q1 2025)
Revenue ($M)$15.001 $10.501*
Primary EPS ($)$(0.02) $(0.036)*
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)6 / 5*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Revenue mix (Q1 2025)
ComponentQ1 2025
System sale (Advantage to Jülich)≈$12.6M (of $15.0M)
QCaaS + Professional Services≈$2.4M (balance)
  • KPIs and operating metrics
KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Bookings ($M)$2.3 $18.3 $1.6
Customers (LTM count)133 (69 commercial; 25 Forbes G2K)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)$178.0 (12/31/24) $304.3 (3/31/25)
Deferred Revenue (Total, $M)$19.4 (12/31/24) $6.2 (3/31/25)
GAAP Operating Expenses ($M)$25.2
Non‑GAAP Adjusted OpEx ($M)$20.2

Notes: Non‑GAAP definitions per company exclude SBC, D&A and certain non‑recurring/non‑operating items .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/ActualChange
RevenueQ1 2025“Revenue to exceed $10M” (3/13/25) Actual $15.0M Exceeded

No formal quantitative guidance for Q2/FY was provided in the Q1 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Q‑2)Q4 2024 (Q‑1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/technology initiativesQuantum AI explorations (RBMs, transformers/diffusion), hybrid solver upgrades; Leap SLAs 99.9% availability Advantage2 calibration (4,400 qubits) and supremacy preprint; AI model training concepts discussed Advantage2 GA by end of Q2; error mitigation (~10x effective coherence on certain problems); open‑source ML toolkit Broadening scope; nearing commercial GA
Product performanceAdvantage2 coherence/connectivity/energy‑scale benefits vs Advantage Supremacy published in Science; 3rd 4,400‑qubit CPU calibrated System install at Davidson (Advantage2), fast anneal feature, solver advancements Strong momentum
Commercialization/system salesBuilding pipeline; NTT DOCOMO production path First system sale to Jülich; Q1 revenue guide >$10M ~$12.6M of Q1 from Jülich system; pipeline interest; system pricing $20–$40M (long cycles) System‑sale model emerging
Government & regulatoryTradewinds “awardable” DoD marketplace; Europe interest Expect more near‑term interest outside U.S.; NQI reauth pending U.S. remains gate‑biased; tone “hopeful” post administration change Gradual progress
Customer production appsNTT DOCOMO pilot (15% congestion reduction) and production plans Pipeline broadening; multiple POCs Ford Otosan in production; more apps expected to enter production in 2025 Expanding
R&D executionAdvantage2 and patent/IP positioning Multichip scaling path; accelerated gate‑model R&D considered Advantage2 GA timing; error mitigation and fast anneal On track/accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “The first quarter of 2025 was arguably the most significant in D-Wave’s history… The end result was a record revenue and gross profit quarter.” — CEO Alan Baratz, press release .
  • “Our Q1 revenue came in at a record $15 million, and we closed the quarter with a record $304 million in cash, giving us a very solid cash position that we believe is sufficient for us to reach profitability.” — CEO .
  • On Advantage2: “We have completed calibration and benchmarking of several 4400+ qubit Advantage2 quantum processors… with doubled coherence time… 40% increase in energy scale… increased qubit connectivity from 15 to 20 way…” — CEO .
  • On blockchain research: quantum proof‑of‑work could “reduce electricity costs by up to a factor of 1,000” — CEO; also highlighted potential partnership approach .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA loss for the first quarter was $6.1 million… decrease of 53%… due primarily to the year-over-year increase in revenue… partially offset by higher operating expenses.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • System sales pipeline and economics: Davidson installation is separate from the “handful” of system‑sale opportunities; economics undisclosed; strong global (ex‑U.S.) interest; U.S. bias remains a headwind .
  • Margin framework: system sales should carry higher gross margins than QCaaS (70–80% range); Q1’s 93.6% non‑GAAP GM is a directional proxy but deal‑dependent — CFO .
  • Advantage/Advantage2 clarification: Jülich’s system is Advantage with an option to upgrade; Davidson’s is Advantage2 from the outset — CEO .
  • Revenue per customer trends: average revenue per commercial and government customer increased over the last two sequential quarters — CFO .
  • Profitability: management reiterated funded to profitability, but did not quantify revenue run‑rate or timing — CFO .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beats: Revenue $15.0M vs $10.5M*; EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.036)*; implies significant top‑line and per‑share upside vs consensus, primarily on a high‑margin system sale .
  • Estimate breadth: 6 revenue and 5 EPS estimates for Q1; forward quarters (Q3–Q4’25, Q1–Q2’26) imply modest sequential growth from a normalized base, with ongoing operating losses expected by consensus* (context only) [GetEstimates; see tables above].

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • System‑sale validation and margin leverage: Q1 shows the earnings power potential from high‑margin system sales; however, mix is inherently lumpy and bookings fell YoY, so durability of system demand is key to the multiple .
  • Cash runway: $304M quarter‑end cash provides latitude to pursue Advantage2 rollout, system‑sale opportunities, and accelerated R&D (including gate‑model), lowering financing risk near‑term .
  • Advantage2 near commercialization: GA targeted by end of Q2; features like fast anneal and error mitigation may expand addressable workloads and strengthen competitive moat in optimization .
  • Production traction matters: Ford Otosan joins NTT DOCOMO and Pattison as production references, a differentiator vs peers; scaling QCaaS ARPC remains an execution lever beyond system sales .
  • Government upside skewed ex‑U.S.: Europe and HPC centers are leading system interest (e.g., Jülich); U.S. adoption may improve but remains slower, affecting pipeline timing .
  • Watch catalysts: Advantage2 GA, additional system‑sale announcements (management indicated long cycles, $20–$40M price points), and further production deployments; any U.S. policy shift could accelerate government demand .
  • Estimate resets: Street will likely lift near‑term revenue/EPS to reflect Q1’s beat but normalize margins absent further system sales; investors should model a hybrid of QCaaS/PS plus episodic systems, with deferred revenue step‑downs around acceptance events .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • GAAP operating expenses Q1: $25.2M; Non‑GAAP adjusted OpEx: $20.2M .
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss Q1: $(6.1)M (vs $(12.9)M in Q1’24) .
  • Cash flow from operations Q1: $(19.3)M; ATM proceeds net $146.1M in financing cash flows .
  • Pricing/signaling: management publicly cited system pricing “anywhere from $20–$40 million,” with long lead times (Fox Business interview PR) .