DQ
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record Q1 revenue of $15.0M, up 509% YoY, driven primarily by D‑Wave’s first Advantage system sale; GAAP gross margin surged to 92.5% and GAAP gross profit to $13.9M as mix shifted to a high‑margin system sale .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $15.0M vs $10.5M*, EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.036)*; strong operational performance but with lumpy mix (bookings down 64% YoY to $1.6M) .
- Liquidity inflected: quarter‑end cash hit a record $304.3M after $146.2M raised in Q1 via ATM; management believes cash is sufficient to reach profitability .
- Strategic catalysts: Advantage2 general availability targeted by end of Q2, expanded system‑sale pipeline (pricing discussed publicly at $20–$40M; long sales cycles), and new quantum+AI/blockchain research avenues that could favor on‑prem systems .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- System sale unlocked step‑function revenue and margin: ~$12.6M of Q1 revenue from the Jülich Advantage system, with consolidated GAAP gross margin at 92.5% and adjusted EBITDA loss roughly halved YoY to $(6.1)M .
- Balance sheet strength: Q1 cash of $304.3M (record), after $146.2M raised in the quarter; management reiterated cash is sufficient to reach profitability .
- Technology momentum: management emphasized first peer‑reviewed “quantum supremacy” on a useful real‑world problem and Advantage2 milestones (fast anneal, error mitigation), with GA expected by end of Q2; quote: “The first quarter of 2025 was arguably the most significant in D‑Wave’s history…” .
-
What Went Wrong
- Demand leading indicators softened: bookings fell 64% YoY to $1.6M; professional services drove over 50% of bookings, signaling pipeline still in on‑ramp stages .
- Deferred revenue stepped down: total deferred revenue fell from $19.4M at 12/31/24 to $6.2M at 3/31/25 as Q4 bookings converted; highlights revenue lumpiness tied to system sale timing .
- U.S. government adoption remains slow versus international interest; management reiterated a domestic “gate‑model bias,” though tone is “hopeful” under the new administration .
Financial Results
- Income statement and profitability vs prior quarters
- Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revenue mix (Q1 2025)
- KPIs and operating metrics
Notes: Non‑GAAP definitions per company exclude SBC, D&A and certain non‑recurring/non‑operating items .
Guidance Changes
No formal quantitative guidance for Q2/FY was provided in the Q1 materials .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “The first quarter of 2025 was arguably the most significant in D-Wave’s history… The end result was a record revenue and gross profit quarter.” — CEO Alan Baratz, press release .
- “Our Q1 revenue came in at a record $15 million, and we closed the quarter with a record $304 million in cash, giving us a very solid cash position that we believe is sufficient for us to reach profitability.” — CEO .
- On Advantage2: “We have completed calibration and benchmarking of several 4400+ qubit Advantage2 quantum processors… with doubled coherence time… 40% increase in energy scale… increased qubit connectivity from 15 to 20 way…” — CEO .
- On blockchain research: quantum proof‑of‑work could “reduce electricity costs by up to a factor of 1,000” — CEO; also highlighted potential partnership approach .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA loss for the first quarter was $6.1 million… decrease of 53%… due primarily to the year-over-year increase in revenue… partially offset by higher operating expenses.” .
Q&A Highlights
- System sales pipeline and economics: Davidson installation is separate from the “handful” of system‑sale opportunities; economics undisclosed; strong global (ex‑U.S.) interest; U.S. bias remains a headwind .
- Margin framework: system sales should carry higher gross margins than QCaaS (70–80% range); Q1’s 93.6% non‑GAAP GM is a directional proxy but deal‑dependent — CFO .
- Advantage/Advantage2 clarification: Jülich’s system is Advantage with an option to upgrade; Davidson’s is Advantage2 from the outset — CEO .
- Revenue per customer trends: average revenue per commercial and government customer increased over the last two sequential quarters — CFO .
- Profitability: management reiterated funded to profitability, but did not quantify revenue run‑rate or timing — CFO .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beats: Revenue $15.0M vs $10.5M*; EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.036)*; implies significant top‑line and per‑share upside vs consensus, primarily on a high‑margin system sale .
- Estimate breadth: 6 revenue and 5 EPS estimates for Q1; forward quarters (Q3–Q4’25, Q1–Q2’26) imply modest sequential growth from a normalized base, with ongoing operating losses expected by consensus* (context only) [GetEstimates; see tables above].
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- System‑sale validation and margin leverage: Q1 shows the earnings power potential from high‑margin system sales; however, mix is inherently lumpy and bookings fell YoY, so durability of system demand is key to the multiple .
- Cash runway: $304M quarter‑end cash provides latitude to pursue Advantage2 rollout, system‑sale opportunities, and accelerated R&D (including gate‑model), lowering financing risk near‑term .
- Advantage2 near commercialization: GA targeted by end of Q2; features like fast anneal and error mitigation may expand addressable workloads and strengthen competitive moat in optimization .
- Production traction matters: Ford Otosan joins NTT DOCOMO and Pattison as production references, a differentiator vs peers; scaling QCaaS ARPC remains an execution lever beyond system sales .
- Government upside skewed ex‑U.S.: Europe and HPC centers are leading system interest (e.g., Jülich); U.S. adoption may improve but remains slower, affecting pipeline timing .
- Watch catalysts: Advantage2 GA, additional system‑sale announcements (management indicated long cycles, $20–$40M price points), and further production deployments; any U.S. policy shift could accelerate government demand .
- Estimate resets: Street will likely lift near‑term revenue/EPS to reflect Q1’s beat but normalize margins absent further system sales; investors should model a hybrid of QCaaS/PS plus episodic systems, with deferred revenue step‑downs around acceptance events .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- GAAP operating expenses Q1: $25.2M; Non‑GAAP adjusted OpEx: $20.2M .
- Adjusted EBITDA loss Q1: $(6.1)M (vs $(12.9)M in Q1’24) .
- Cash flow from operations Q1: $(19.3)M; ATM proceeds net $146.1M in financing cash flows .
- Pricing/signaling: management publicly cited system pricing “anywhere from $20–$40 million,” with long lead times (Fox Business interview PR) .