Qfin Holdings - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Qifu Technology fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please also note that today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Karen Ji, Senior Director of Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Karen.

Karen Ji (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Amberly. Hello everyone, and welcome to Qifu Technology's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our earnings release was distributed earlier today and is available on our IR website. Joining me today are Mr. Haisheng Wu, our CEO, Mr. Alex Xu, our CFO, and Mr. Yan Zheng, our CRO. Before we start, I would like to refer you to our safe harbor statement in earnings press release, which also applies to this call. During the call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent Form 20-F filed with SEC. Also, this call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Please refer to our earnings release, which contains a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures. Also, please note that unless otherwise stated, all figures mentioned in this call are in RMB terms. Today's prepared remarks from our CEO will be delivered in English using an AI-generated voice. Now I will turn the call over to Mr. Haisheng Wu. Please go ahead.

Haisheng Wu (CEO)

Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us today. During the quarter, our efforts in optimizing our top and bottom line performance started to bear fruit, capping off a solid 2023 for us. As we empowered more financial institutions, total loan facilitation and origination volume on our platform reached RMB 119 billion, up 13.8% year-over-year. With the ongoing business optimization, our revenue increased 15.1% year-over-year to approximately RMB 4.5 billion, hitting a nine-quarter high. Our non-GAAP net income increased 25.1% year-over-year to roughly RMB 1.15 billion, representing the fastest growth seen over the past nine quarters. From an annual perspective, total loan facilitation and origination volume on our platform increased 15.4% year-over-year to a record RMB 475.8 billion. Non-GAAP net income increased approximately 6% from last year to roughly RMB 4.45 billion.

In 2023, we promptly adjusted our strategies to navigate market challenges, which allowed us to not only meet the growth target set at the beginning of the year but also achieve a notable improvement in profitability during the second half of the year. This robust performance underscores our operational resilience and sets a solid foundation for our high-quality development in 2024. The consumer credit industry entered the post-pandemic era in 2023. As China navigated a bumpy journey towards economic recovery, consumers within the high-quality segment were becoming increasingly cautious about borrowing. Simultaneously, certain user segments started to face pressures on repayments amid elevated youth unemployment rates. The deceleration in the overall consumer credit market's momentum also led to a decline in the marginal efficiency of incremental growth.

After thorough consideration by management, we have set quality growth and profitability as our primary objectives and shifted our operational strategy to prioritize efficiency over scale. By refining every aspect of our operations, we aim to enhance the long-term healthiness and sustainability of our business. In 2023, we achieved substantial progress in terms of quality growth and profitability. Speaking of quality growth, we extended our market reach to target customers by further diversifying user acquisition channels. Starting in July, we began working with a leading short-form video platform as their only fintech partner through our embedded finance model. By leveraging our strong user profiling and risk identification capabilities, we quickly ramped up our user base and consistently maintained a leading market share on the platform. Additionally, we have actively pursued and engaged in similar collaborations with industry-leading platforms across other verticals, such as e-commerce, payment, and mobile phone app stores.

In 2023, the percentage of new users with approved credit lines through the embedded finance channel rose to 31%, with an 82% increase in loan facilitation and origination volume. Through the ongoing refinement of our profit model, the ROA of our embedded finance business in Q4 increased by roughly 20% from the same period last year. The collaborative nature of this business model allows us to complement the platforms and capitalize on their rapid expansion to quickly achieve scalable profitability. We are optimistic about maintaining another strong growth performance in embedded finance this year. In 2023, we saw a notable improvement in our overall acquisition efficiency. While the number of total new users with approved credit lines increased 7% compared to 2022, our sales and marketing expenses decreased 12%, leading to an impressive 18% year-over-year decline in acquisition cost per credit line user.

In 2023, we improved our profitability meaningfully while sustaining solid growth, thanks to a stronger funding position, greater asset allocation efficiency, and our enhanced products and services. On the funding front, we further optimized our funding structure and reduced our annual funding costs by more than 1 percentage point year-over-year in 2023. We issued RMB 12.5 billion ABSs, representing a year-over-year increase of 56%. Benefiting from the robust demand from state-owned and joint-stock banks, as well as major securities firms, our ABS issuance costs decreased 75 basis points. Additionally, we have secured the first-ever AAA international rating for exchange-traded ABSs. This will help us attract more funding from reputable overseas institutions, allowing us to further boost issuance volume and optimize issuance costs.

In terms of asset allocation, with the accuracy of user profiling and identification continuously improving, we onboarded a more diversified spectrum of financial institution partners, strengthening our ability to serve various loan asset segments. By aligning assets based on the risk appetites of different institutions, we optimized our asset allocation and increased overall returns on our loan portfolio. In 2023, our loan facilitation and origination volume under the ICE model steadily increased. The enhanced precision in asset allocation increased the underwriting efficiency from financial institution partners, resulting in a notable improvement in our take rate. In Q4, our revenue take rate as percentage of loan volume for ICE improved by 54% from the same period last year. On the product front, we launched a loyalty program catering to various user needs and improving the engagement of our existing users.

By offering a wide range of value-added services, we improved our user retention. Going forward, we will continue to enrich our product offerings and implement differentiated strategies to create value for users, ultimately boosting our users' LTV. Risk management is the cornerstone of our business. In the second half of the year, we encountered notable volatility in our asset quality due to the broader macro headwinds. The stricter line controls by China's telecom carriers in Q4 added further pressure to our overall risk profile. In response to these challenges starting in Q3, we have gradually tightened our credit standards and iterated risk strategies across the loan facilitation, credit operation, and post-credit process to improve our risk metrics. First, we further enhanced our credit approval system, which allowed us to extend a greater proportion of credit lines to high-quality users.

Second, we revamped our strategic framework for existing borrowers and introduced external data sources such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Umeng for joint modeling and scoring, thereby enhancing our ability to identify and intercept high-risk customer segments. Third, we fine-tuned our collection strategies and incentive schemes to increase our collection efficiency. With these measures in place, we began to see a steady improvement in risk metrics for new loans in November and onwards, and a gradual recovery in risk performance for overall loan portfolios starting in January and February of this year. As our historical loan assets gradually mature and new loans make up a higher percentage of our portfolio, we expect our overall risk performance to further improve this year. Our Technology Solutions business continued to make solid progress in 2023.

We further optimized our product offerings and entered into partnerships with a number of financial institutions covering different categories, including joint-stock, internet, private, and municipal banks. We tailored our deployment models to cater to their specific needs and remain committed to providing them with end-to-end technology solutions. We expect more clients will be ready to deploy our solutions on a broader scale throughout this year. In 2023, we strategically allocated more resources to artificial intelligence and large language models, and took the initiative in exploring applications of large language models in the financial sector. Our financial large language model outperforms all the open-source financial large language models with comparable parameters in knowledge proficiency, according to open-source benchmarks. Within our intelligent marketing, a total of 600 images and 100 videos are generated by AIGC per day.

Based on performance testing over the past five months, our AIGC-generated image placements have shown the potential to reduce unit acquisition costs by roughly 9%. Taking a longer-term view, utilizing AIGC-generated images along with automated placements will enable us to make quick updates and optimize placement strategies, significantly boosting marketing efficiency. We have also used our large language model to empower the telemarketing team, facilitating communication with approximately 13 million users to date. By providing lead refinement, semantic analysis, and suggested talking points, the drawdown per credit line user increased by roughly 5%. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, as the macro uncertainties persist, we will continue to take a prudent approach in our execution. Our focus will be on pursuing quality growth by optimizing risk performance and operational efficiency to improve overall profitability.

Meanwhile, we will consistently make strategic investments in long-term growth opportunities. This will involve broadening our strategic partnerships across various sectors to further the success of our embedded finance collaboration model and pursuing collaborative user management with our financial partners. Moreover, we will explore a more open platform model, leveraging our extensive industry know-how and user insights to enable more effective connections between users and financial institutions. Through our technology solutions business, we aim to facilitate the digital transformation of more financial institutions. In a word, we're widening the top of our funnel while keeping a watchful eye on its bottom. In 2023, our return on equity on a non-GAAP basis reached approximately 22%, outperforming most financial and internet companies.

We returned substantial value to our shareholders by distributing $170 million in cash dividends for 2023 and repurchasing $132 million worth of shares since we launched the buyback program in June 2023. The aggregate amount accounted for 50% of our net income for the year, representing a significant boost in our shareholder returns. In 2024, we remain committed to further optimizing our capital allocation. After careful consideration from our board, we will maintain our current dividend policy for 2024. Additionally, starting in April 2024, we will implement a new share repurchase program. We are convinced that our company's shares are significantly undervalued, and the current market valuation does not reflect the company's intrinsic value. We are confident about our future prospects and therefore have decided to substantially step up our share repurchase efforts. Later, our CFO will go through the plan in detail.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Alex Xu.

Alex Xu (CFO)

Thank you, Haisheng. Good morning and good evening, everyone. Welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings call. While the fourth quarter was a fairly challenging period for our operation, as macroeconomic recovery progressed slower than we hoped and the consumer sentiment remained muted, we still delivered another solid quarter of financial performance. During the quarter, we took proactive actions to fine-tune our product and service offerings, strengthen relationships with users and key partners, optimize business mixes, and trim exposures to underperforming assets. Total net revenue for Q4 was $4.5 billion versus $4.3 billion in Q3 and $3.9 billion a year ago. Revenue from credit-driven service, capital-heavy, was $3.2 billion in Q4 compared to $3.1 billion in Q3 and $2.8 billion a year ago.

The year-over-year growth was mainly due to longer effective duration, growth in on-balance sheet loans, and contribution from other value-added services, partially offset by a decline in off-balance sheet loans. The sequential increase reflects the growth in on-balance sheet loans and contribution from other value-added services. On-balance sheet loans account for over 20% of the total loan volume in Q4. Overall funding costs further declined by roughly 20 bps sequentially and over 100 bps year-over-year with the help of a strong relationship with financial institution partners and record-breaking ABS issuance. Revenue from platform service, capital-light, was $1.2 billion in Q4 compared to $1.2 billion in Q3 and $1.1 billion a year ago. The year-over-year growth was mainly due to strong contribution from ICE and other value-added services, substantially offsetting the decline in capital-light loan facilitation.

For Q4, capital-light loan facilitation, ICE, and other tech solutions combined account for roughly 57% of the total loan volume compared to roughly 56% in the prior quarter. We expect this ratio to be gradually trending up through 2024 as we try to strike an optimal mix between risk-bearing and non-risk-bearing assets in an uncertain microenvironment. In Q4, we saw continued sequential improvement in revenue take rate for both cap-heavy and cap-light business, mainly driven by a better asset mix. During the quarter, average IIR of the loans we originated and/or facilitated was 21.3% compared to 21.7% in the prior quarter as we purposely trimmed our direct exposure to high-price, high-risk assets in response to the micro uncertainty. Looking forward, we expect pricing to be fluctuating in the narrow band around this level for the coming quarters. Sales and marketing expense increased 4% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year.

Please note, the year-on-year comp is somewhat misleading as sales marketing activities were severely depressed by the sudden outbreak of COVID cases in Q4 of 2022. We added approximately 1.7 million new credit line users in Q4, roughly flat Q-on-Q. Unit costs acquiring new credit line users also increased modestly Q-on-Q to $326 from $306, mainly due to the seasonality. For full-year 2023, unit CAC was approximately $304 compared to $369 in 2022. We will continue to adjust the pace of our new user acquisition based on the macro condition from time to time. Meanwhile, as Haisheng mentioned, we have made notable progress in diversifying our user acquisition channels during the quarter. Overall, we expect to see modest, lower customer acquisition costs in 2024 with improving efficiency and controlled pace.

Furthermore, we will continue to focus on re-energizing existing user base as repeat borrowers historically contribute a vast majority of our business. In Q4, we continue to experience the volatility in asset quality as key leading risk metrics worsened sequentially. Day-One Delinquency was 5.0% in Q4 versus 4.6% in Q3. The uptick in Day-One Delinquency mainly reflects continued negative sentiment among borrowers as they face more economic uncertainties. 30-day collection rate was 84.9% in Q4 versus 86.7% in Q3. In addition to macro condition, 30-day collection rate was further impacted by unexpected line control by telecom carriers since November that resulted in industry-wide lower connection rates of outbound phone lines for collection operations. Although we have taken actions to find alternatives and we believe that such line control issues can be resolved eventually, the impact to our Q4 risk metrics is still quite visible.

We have further optimized our risk management model and applied even more restrictive standards on new applications to mitigate potential risks throughout the quarter. We also proactively adjust our business mix to further reduce our exposure to high-risk assets. By January, we already started to see stable credit quality of overall portfolio as new loans' quality improved and old loans gradually matured. Although economic conditions remain challenging and we may continue to see some fluctuation of these metrics in the near future, we believe overall risk performance of the loan portfolio will be relatively stable in 2024 compared to the full-year performance of 2023. As macro uncertainty persists and credit quality fluctuates, we will continue to take a prudent approach to book provisions against potential credit loss. Total new provisions for risk-bearing loans in Q4 were approximately $2.0 billion, and the writebacks of previous provisions were approximately $341 million.

On a sequential basis, new provision booking ratio increased while the writebacks declined as expected risk of the assets moved higher. Provision coverage ratio, which is defined as total outstanding provision divided by total outstanding delinquent capital-heavy loan balances between 90 and 180 days, was 481% in Q4 compared to 534% in Q3. The provision coverage ratio was still near the high end of our historical range. Non-GAAP net profit was $1.15 billion in Q4 compared to $1.18 billion in Q3. For full-year 2023, Non-GAAP net profit was $4.45 billion compared to $4.21 billion in 2022. Effective tax rate for 2023 was 18.5% compared to our typical ETR of approximately 15%. The higher ETR was mainly due to additional withholding tax provision related to cash distribution from onshore to offshore for dividend payment and share repurchase.

With solid operating results and higher contribution from the capital-light model, our leverage ratio, which is defined as risk-bearing loan balances divided by shareholders' equity, was 3.3x in Q4, at a historical low. We expect to see the leverage ratio fluctuate around this level in the near future. We generated approximately $2.4 billion cash from operations in Q4 compared to $1.2 billion in Q3. The record-breaking operating cash flow was in part due to the change in working capital related to the long national holiday at the beginning of the quarter. Total cash and cash equivalents was $7.8 billion in Q4 compared to $8.2 billion in Q3. Non-restricted cash was approximately $4.2 billion in Q4 compared to $4.9 billion in Q3. The sequential decline in cash position was mainly due to increased cash usage in our on-balance sheet lending.

As we continue to generate healthy cash flow from operations, we believe our current cash position is sufficient to support our business development and to return to our shareholders. In accordance with our current dividend policy, our board has approved a dividend of $0.29 per Class A ordinary share or $0.58 per ADS for the second half of 2023 to holders of record of Class A ordinary share and ADS as of the close of the business on April 15, 2024, Hong Kong time and New York time, respectively. The aggregate amount of dividend distribution for fiscal year 2023 will be approximately $170 million. On June 20, 2023, we announced a share repurchase plan to repurchase up to $150 million over a 12-month period. As of March 12, 2024, we have already bought approximately $132 million worth of our ADS in open market at the average price around $15.70.

We expect to fully execute the current share repurchase plan around the end of March, roughly three months ahead of initial schedule. To further enhance returns to our shareholders, our board has approved a new share repurchase plan to repurchase up to $350 million worth of our ADS over a 12-month period starting April 1, 2024. By our estimate, the above-mentioned two share repurchase plans combined would repurchase nearly 20% of the company's total outstanding shares upon full execution at the current share price. The share repurchase plan further demonstrates management confidence and commitment to the future of the company and the management intent to consistently use share repurchase plans to achieve additional EPS accretion in the long run.

Meanwhile, our board also reaffirmed our current dividend policy, upon which we will continue to distribute 20%-30% of our GAAP net income as cash dividends to shareholders on a semi-annual basis. With the full execution of a new share repurchase program and a dividend plan, the combined payout ratio could well exceed 70% in 2024, and the combined yield based on current market cap will be over 70%, an extremely attractive investment by any measure. Now, regarding our business outlook, as micro economic uncertainty reduces visibility into long-term trends, we want to maintain a prudent approach to strike a balance between loan volume growth and profitability. We have purposely trimmed our exposure to underperforming assets and improved overall ROA levels.

With the change of asset mix and the quality of the growth, the company does not view the growth in overall loan volume as an appropriate indicator to reflect underlying drivers for its operating results. Therefore, the company will no longer provide loan volume guidance in its earnings release for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, under the current market conditions, the company will continue to focus on enhancing profitability and efficiency of its operation. We believe that an outlook of near-term profitability combined with detailed discussion of other key efficiency metrics in earnings conference calls would be more appropriate to reflect management's operational priority and execution efforts. And finally, numbers. For the first quarter of 2024, the company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.15 billion and RMB 1.2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth between 17% and 22%.

This outlook reflects the company's current and preliminary view, which is subject to material changes. With that, I would like to conclude our prepared remarks.Operator, we can now take some questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. For those who can speak Chinese, please kindly ask your question in Chinese first, followed by English translation. In addition, in order to have enough time to address everyone on the call, please keep it to one question and one follow-up, and return to the queue if you have more questions. Once again, that's star 11 for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Richard Xu from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question, Richard. 好的，感谢海中总，感谢徐总的介绍。我就想问一下，听起来管理层对今年的经营策略还是比较谨慎的。那全年的贷款的增速现在大概的目标是什么？那背后刚才也说到一些因素，还有没有其他的一些考虑因素？那现在从内部和外部变化的环境来讲，管理层觉得最关键的几个变化现在关注哪些？然后四季度贷款增速分布现在大概是什么一个情况？然后另一个问题就是现在贷款正常质量的情况是怎么样的？然后今年的整个的季度拨备计提的比例和按拨备金额的比例是大概是什么情况？主要是这两个问题。

Two questions.

Richard Xu (Equity Research Analyst)

First of all, it sounds like management still has relatively conservative outlook for the year. So what's the expected loan growth for the full year? What are the key considerations? And also how the loans will be sort of allocated through the different quarters? Secondly is what's the credit quality trends at the moment and outlook for the provisions for the year? Thank you. 谢谢 Richard。第一个问题我来回答一下。是的，正如您看到的，我们在今年的上半年会采取相对稳健谨慎的一个经营策略。因为我们认为现在目前的宏观经济还是存在不确定性的。因此在这种策略下，我们不会把放款量的整体增速作为我们首要的目标，而是把我们有质量的增长和我们的盈利效率作为我们的主要目标。在这种经营策略之下，在一定的程度上可能会影响到我们的放款量。但是我想说的是，我们对于有缩减的部分主要是边际效率相对低的业务，甚至是亏损的业务。因此对于盈利的影响反而是正向的。从您说的内外部环境的变化来看的话，我们认为尽管宏观有不确定性，但是一季度我们也能看到一些向好的迹象。比如 CPI 也出现了回升。今年前两个月我们的进出口的数据也增长了 8.7%，创造了一个历史新高。那从我们内部的数据来看，我们的风险的表现也在逐步的改善。所以还是有很多向好的变化。那从您关心的分季度的贷款的节奏来看的话，一季度因为有春节因素，它有一定的淡季的表现。那同时我们也会做很多的优化的工作。因此从一季度低点以后的话，我们预计在后面几个季度它的业务量会有逐步一个环比上升的一个趋势。

Haisheng Wu (CEO)

Okay. Thanks, Richard. As you can see, given the macro uncertainties at this stage, we will continue to maintain a prudent approach in our operations, at least in the first half of 2024. Therefore, the overall loan volume growth is not our primary goal. Instead, our primary goal will be the quality of our growth and the quality of earnings. Based on this strategy, I think to some extent will impact our overall loan volume growth.

But as we trimmed our loan exposure to the assets with lower marginal profits or even loss-making assets, we are actually making positive impacts on our profitability. In terms of internal and external data we are looking at, so far we have seen positive trends in the macro data, such as the CPI has improved in February, and the first two months' import and export data also increased by 8.7%. Our own risk matrix is also trending better, which makes us more comfortable about the near future trend. As for quarterly planning, Q1 is usually a slack season for our business. Plus, we made a lot of efforts in optimizing our risk performance in this quarter. We expect our loan volume for Q1 will be the lowest level for this year and then gradually ramp up in Q2 and Q3. 好，第二个问题请我们CRO郑燕说一下。 好的，我说一下现在看到的资产质量的情况，然后待会请徐总讲一下拨备相关的事。对，就资产质量这一块，我们其实在2023年的Q4和2024年的Q1都进行了更多主动的关于资产质量的调整，主要包括优化新增放款的风险来提高新交易的放款质量，以及我们缩减了长期线的交易规模，对冲一些不确定性。同时也加快了我们日常策略和模型的一个迭代速度。从表现来看，前面海生总也讲到我们其实是有一些优化的。那具体来说，12月份，2023年12月份的新增放款的FPD30这个指标已经较Q3的平均水平优化了13%左右。2024年1月份，1月上旬的放款吧，它截止当前已经有比较表现期限的这些放款的FPD30呢，较12月份的FPD30指标又优化了10%。另外呢，去年下半年的长期线占比是大概18%左右。那2024年的新增放款，我们将长期线的占比缩减到10%以内，进一步的去将受宏观影响更敏感的客户的借款倾斜去做了一些缩短。从结果看，今年一二月份的风险指标也已经在逐步改善。我们预计随着存量贷款的逐步到期，今年整体的风险指标都会再得到进一步的。

Yan Zheng (CRO)

Okay, I will do the translation.

Regarding the asset quality, we made more proactive adjustments to improve asset quality in Q4 and Q1 through tightening our credit standards for new loans and cutting back longer duration loans to mitigate the uncertainties. Based on our observation, the FPD30 delinquency rate of our new loans originated in December improved by 13% compared to Q3, and then the FPD30 delinquency rate of the new loans for early January further improved by 10% from December. In addition, longer duration loans accounted for 18% of our new loans in second half last year, while the contribution has been reduced to less than 10% so far in 2024 as we shortened duration for those macro-sensitive users. So far, we have seen improvements in the risk performance of our overall loan portfolio in January and February and expect to see further improvements throughout the year with the legacy loans gradually mature.

Alex Xu (CFO)

Okay. Regarding the provision booking, as you know, historically, we have been on a pretty prudent approach to book the provision. As Zhongzhong mentioned, we are expecting the risk matrix will gradually improve throughout this year, but still probably will take the similar kind of a booking ratio to book our provision, just to be conservative. And at the same time, please note that overall, the capital-heavy loan as a percentage of the total as well as the absolute volume for this year will most likely be lower than last year. As we mentioned, we are shifting towards more capped lifetime segments. So the base for those provisions are getting lower for this year, which means the absolute provision amount will most likely drop versus last year. But the booking ratio will most likely be still the same on the conservative side. Thank you, Richard.

Operator (participant)

[Foreign Language] 非常感谢，非常感谢。Thank you for your question, Richard. Next question comes from the line of Alex Ye from UBS. Please ask your question, Alex.

[Foreign Language] 感谢给我这提问的机会。我这边两个问题。第一个是关于 profitability 的。我记得上个季度管理层也提到说我们未来的目标可能会预计说盈利的增速可能会快于放款量的增速。我不知道这样的一个指引是否还是成立的。那以及说我们未来这样子提高盈利性的一个推动力主要来自于哪一些，以及我们有多大的信心可以达成。因为其实也有不少的下行风险，比如说来自于资产质量，以及我们刚刚也提到说今年会把更多的放款量往 capital-light 去倾斜。那我不知道这两者的盈利性是不是会有一些区别，然后会削弱盈利性。那第二个问题是关于资产质量的。刚刚有提到说挑战来自于宏观的不确定性，然后也有一些可能是短暂性的因素，包括催收电话线路的一个扰动。那想请问一下这些因素里面，管理层觉得哪些可能是更重要的一些因素，以及从一个如果来量化这样的影响的话，觉得 2024 年一个终损率大概会在一个什么样的范围内跟 2023 年相比是怎么样的。

Alex Ye (Equity Research Analyst)

So I have two questions. First one is on the take rate and profitability. So previously, management has guided that going forward, we should probably expect better earnings growth than loan volume growth. I'm wondering if that statement is still valid and how confident is management on this? Can you share with us some of the drivers given there are lots of moving parts and given we should note the downside risk from asset quality and your current strategy of shifting more from capital-heavy to capital-light model? Second question is on asset quality outlook. Management has just discussed about the factors from both macro front and some temporary factors such as the callout capacity.

So I'm wondering which would be the dominant driver? And if we look at this from a vintage loss perspective, what's the expectation for 2024 vintage loss versus 2023? Thank you. [Foreign Language] 好的。我来回答一下前面的第一个。然后后面关于终损的一会儿请郑彦回答一下。应该说从我们今年的增长和驱动力角度，我们应该是从去年的三季度就做了比较多的策略上的一些调整，把更多的工作放在我们整体的质量上。那这些工作在去年的三、四季度也开始逐渐地展现出来效果。我们相信在 2024 年这些成果将会进一步地得到体现。那这些成绩背后的推动因素，我想是几个方面。第一个就是我们对于风险的优化工作。通过这种对于边际的风险的压缩和低效业务的清除，我们应该说整体的资产报的盈利性有了一个很好的提升。这是一个风险角度。第二个就是从资金成本的角度。大家看到我们去年资金成本有一个非常大的一个下降。那今年我们整体看到资金面还是比较宽松的。同时我们也会发行更多的 ABS。因此今年的资金成本我们将会看到有进一步下降的可能。那第三个驱动是从我们资产分发的角度。去年大家也能看到我们通过优化分发提高了我们整体的 take rate。那今年我们将会继续通过优化分发，通过引入更多的金融机构，根据他们的不同的风险偏好来匹配不同的资产，从而来提高我们整体的成绩的转化率和盈利性。那从产品端，产品端我们也在不断地向用户提供更好的产品，提高用户的流程，从而提高我们长期的用户的 LTV。这个我们在去年也取得了非常良好的进步。那第五个角度，我们认为我们对于新的大模型技术的这种研发的投入正在逐渐地对我们业务效率有一个全流程的一个提升。那我们这里可以分享的是我们通过 AIGC 的技术优化我们的投放的图片素材和视频素材，我们整体的这一部分的获客成本能够优化 9%。那通过这个技术对我们销售线索，包括电话销售还是传统销售，我们这种渠道获得的用户的动知的额度有一个 9% 的一个提升。那我们通过 AI 编程，今天在我们整体公司的代码库里面，它实现了 15% 的编码的替换。所以这些工作都会逐渐在每一个环节提升我们整体业务效率，从而最终提高我们的盈利性。总的来说，今年我们也看到了一些宏观上的一些好的一些趋势。那我们上述做的这些工作也在逐步地体现效果。我们对于今年的目标还是非常有信心的。关于您说的资产质量，刚才我们 CRO 也说了，Q4 和 Q1 我们确实也做了比较多的策略性的调整。我们新放款的 FPD30 在过去两个月都有比较明显的优化，加上最近可能宏观也会有一些稳中向好的趋势。所以我们认为整体上的资产质量还是非常可控的。

Haisheng Wu (CEO)

Okay, I will do the translation. Thanks, Alex. Regarding the drivers for profitability improvement, since last Q3, we have made substantial efforts to improve our overall profitability, creating positive impact on our last Q3 and Q4. We expect the trend will continue in 2024. For this year, we believe our profit will increase as we continue to work on our risk funding, asset allocation, and product front. Number one, on the risk front, we will cut back the lower quality or lower efficiency assets to improve the ROA of our overall loan portfolio.

Second, on funding side, last year we have seen substantial decline in our funding cost. Given the still ample market liquidity this year, we will continue to push more ABS issuance and reduce our funding cost further. Third, on asset allocation, we will collaborate with more financial institutions this year to match their risk appetite with appropriate assets to improve the asset allocation efficiency and our profitability as well. Fourth, on the product side, we will further enhance and differentiate our product offerings to increase user stickiness and their long-term LTV. Fifth, we will improve our operational efficiency through large language model empowerment. For example, we applied AIGC-generated pictures to our intelligent marketing, which reduced our unit acquisition cost by roughly 9%. With large language model empowering our telemarketing team, our average drawdown per user increased by roughly 5%. Currently, AI programming has replaced 15% of our coding.

All these efforts, we believe, will eventually improve our efficiency in the near term and the long run. In summary, we have seen some positive signs from the latest published macro data. Our continuous efforts in improving our profitability are also bearing fruits. At this time point, we are confident to achieve our goal to generate better profit growth than loan volume growth. Regarding the asset quality, as our CRO just mentioned, we fine-tuned our risk strategies in Q4 and Q1, leading to a better FPD30 delinquency rate performance of the new loans issued in the last two months. Considering the marginally better macro conditions, we believe our asset quality is also generally manageable. 好，第二个请郑燕说一下吧。好的，我继续补充一下风险这一块。那去年 Q3 的宏观表现低落，确实也是超过很多人的预期的。这个趋势我们看到也延续到 Q4。那一方面主要是宏观的经济指标低迷，现在市场的流动性也出现一定程度的紧张。加上去年 11 月开始运营商线路的一些管制，对我们的收入也造成了一定的影响。那整体导致存量资产 Q4 的风险也进一步有所上升。那我们认为大的宏观层面的不确定性，包括线路问题的影响，确实还会有一定的延续性。但实际上年初至今的一些经济指标和流动性的表现也都有一定。我们的线路的工作也有一些进展。对，然后从我们的资产的表现来看，新增放款前面讲到了，已经得到了比较大幅度的优化。那整体大盘资产的存量资产这一块的日违表现，也是从 11 月的高点开始持续的一个回落。从量化来说，我们年初的经营规划来讲，今年的整体风险的偏好上面也会更加谨慎。所以我们预计，相较于 2023 年而言，2024 年整体放款的终损会有 10%-15% 的一个优化。

Yan Zheng (CRO)

Okay, I will comment on the risk front.

The weaker than expected macro environment in Q3 continued its momentum in Q4. As a result of underperforming macro statistics, liquidity tension in credit markets, and the stricter line control by telecom carriers, our risk matrix for the overall loan portfolio were further trending up in Q4. In our view, the macro uncertainties as well as the line control issue may continue to put pressure on our risk management in this year. But we do see improvements in the latest economic data and market liquidity. Our day-one delinquency ratio has been consistently trending lower from the peak level in last November. From our business planning perspective, we will take a more prudent approach in terms of risk appetite. With all these efforts, we aim to lower our vintage loss for 2024 new loans by 10%-15% compared to 2023. Operator. 好的，非常感谢。 Thank you. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next question comes from the line of Emma Xu from Bank of America Securities. Please ask your question, Emma. [Foreign Language] 谢谢给我提问的机会。我这里有一个小问题是关于股东回报的。我们看到管理层把新一年的股息分配率还是定在 20% 到 30% 的范围内，同时公布了新一期的回购计划，然后回购金额也提升到 3.5 亿美金。管理层也提到了一些后续的考量，提到了这些措施背后的考量。那我也想问一下就是说，这些股东回报是不是长期可持续的？在中期我们有没有一个中期的股东回报计划呢？

Emma Xu (Equity Research Analyst)

So we noticed that you keep your dividend payout ratio at 20%-30%, calculate ratio at 20%-30%, and announce a new shareholder share buyback plan of $350 million. You mentioned some of the considerations behind. I'm just wondering if such shareholder return is sustainable in the long term. Could you share more considerations with us? Thank you.

Alex Xu (CFO)

Thanks, Emma. I think, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we consider the combination of dividend and the share repurchase as lasting kind of measures we're going to take to return to our shareholders. In terms of the mix between the two, from time to time, depending on the market condition, may change.

But the intensity of this kind of return program will probably be similar to what we see in 2024, which was announced. In other words, if we're consistently doing the repurchase and the dividend for the next, say, three years, it could be possible we see the shrink of total share count by roughly 30% or even more, based on current share price. So basically, what we're trying to say is that we view, given our current cash flow position, we view that returning to shareholders is a very important long-term tool to the company. And so we'll continue to do that year by year.

Emma Xu (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. This is very encouraging.

Alex Xu (CFO)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

All right. Thank you, Emma. Next question comes from the line of Yada Li from CICC. Please ask your question, Yada.[Foreign Language] 各位早好，感谢给我提问的机会。今天想先请教一下，从放款量的角度来看，公司未来如果从自营担保猪贷和轻资产模式占比的这样的一个角度，大概的一个变化趋势，然后以及在当前市场的环境下，如果去从金融机构的角度来看，金融机构普遍会更倾向于哪一种合作模式。然后第二个问题也想请教一下，从公司目前 PU 的数据来看，也能发现智能信贷引擎业务增长得非常快，占比也一直在提升。所以想请教一下管理层对于致信业务今年整体的一个发展趋势判断。感谢管理层. Then I will do my translation.

Yada Li (Equity Research Analyst)

First, I was wondering what are the percentage trends of different facilitation models, including the microcredit, the guaranteed model, and the capital-heavy model in the volume going forward? And considering the macro environment, which one is preferred by the financial institutions? And secondly, I've noticed that there was notable growth of the ICE, both in volume and percentage. And during this year, what can we expect regarding the ICE? That's all. Thank you.

[ Foreign Language] 好的，Yada。对，这几种模式它的占比以及趋势，我想说在我们今天这种结构下，这种比例之下，我们不再去简单地去追求某种类型的资产的比例的变化。我们更多的还是想通过对于资方的引入以及分发效率的提升，来整体地提高我们各个模式下的 take rate。同时，我们也会在不同的模式下提升承接的效率，优化我们与金融机构的合作的成本。因此，每个模式下我们都希望它能够有一个 take rate 的提升。比如说您注意到的致信模式，我们在 2023 年持续地引入了更多的金融机构，也优化了我们分发的策略。因此，我们可以看到这个业务的 take rate 有一个 50% 的一个提升。因此，这个业务的占比提升叠加它的 take rate 的提升，它的盈利性的影响就会非常的是正向的。应该说从今年来看的话，我们应该会继续去执行这个策略，去提高不同模式下面的经营的效率，并且通过动态的资产的分发的优化，来提升我们整体公司的盈利水平。

Haisheng Wu (CEO)

Okay. Thanks, Yada. Regarding your question about the loan mix, I think at this stage basically we won't set a target for our loan mix structure. Instead, we target to diversify the funding partnership structure, adjust our loan mix and asset allocation strategy to improve our overall take rate.

In the meantime, we strive to improve the asset matching and allocation efficiency, reduce the partnership cost, and boost our take rate for each of those categories. As you mentioned, let's take ICE for instance. We managed to diversify our funding partnership and optimize the asset allocation under ICE in last year, which resulted in an overall 50% year-over-year increase in our revenue take rate for ICE in Q4 2023. So with ICE contributing more in the loan mix, our overall profitability is also improving. This year, we will continue to conduct this strategy to improve our operational efficiency under different models and make dynamic adjustments to our loan mix to improve our overall take rate. Thank you. 好的，非常感谢管理层。

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Yada. We have reached the end of the question and answer session. Thank you very much for all your questions. I'd like to turn the conference back to the management team for any additional closing comments.

Alex Xu (CFO)

Again, thanks again for joining us for the conference call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact us offline. Thank you. Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.