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QC

QuantumScape Corp (QS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 marked operational progress toward commercialization: QSE-5 sample shipments commenced for module/system integration, Cobra separator process tracking ahead of schedule for baseline in Q2, and Murata collaboration announced to accelerate ceramics scale-up .
  • Financials: GAAP net loss of $114.4M and diluted EPS of -$0.21; adjusted EBITDA loss of $64.6M; total operating expenses $123.6M. Liquidity ended at $860.3M; full-year CapEx ($45–$75M) and adjusted EBITDA loss ($250–$280M) guidance maintained, and cash runway still extends into 2H 2028 .
  • Versus consensus: EPS missed Wall Street in Q1 2025 (-$0.21 actual vs -$0.190 mean); similar misses in Q4 and Q3 2024, while revenue estimates remain $0 given the development stage and licensing model focus [GetEstimates]*.
  • Potential stock reaction catalysts: accelerated Cobra baseline (ahead of schedule), continued PowerCo/Volkswagen engagement (high-level oversight visits), Murata collaboration to scale ceramics, and confirmation that tariffs have only marginal cost impact with mitigations in place .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Cobra separator baseline ahead of schedule; all equipment installed and qualification progressing, expected baselining in Q2 2025 .
  • QSE-5 sample shipments initiated to launch customer for system-level integration and BMS calibration; UN 38.3 safety tests passed (enabling higher-volume shipments) .
  • Strengthened ecosystem: announced first phase of collaboration with Murata (global ceramics leader) to accelerate separator industrialization; intensified joint work with PowerCo with senior Volkswagen/PowerCo leadership review of progress in San Jose .

What Went Wrong

  • Continued EPS misses versus Street across Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025, reflecting the pre-revenue development phase and elevated operating spend to scale processes and equipment [GetEstimates]*.
  • Operating expenses remain high ($123.6M in Q1), with R&D up year-over-year as the company ramps B1 and Cobra-related work; profitability metrics remain deeply negative given licensing-revenue timing .
  • Persistent competitive noise (BYD/CATL fast-charging claims), requiring management to reiterate QSE-5 “no-compromise” differentiation and safety positioning, signaling ongoing investor scrutiny of the moat until production-scale data is available .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L and Operating Metrics

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$119.7 $114.7 $114.4
Diluted EPS ($USD)-0.23 [GetEstimates]*-0.22 [GetEstimates]*-0.21
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$130.2 $128.7 $123.6
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($USD Millions)$71.6 $4.7 $64.6
Capital Expenditure ($USD Millions)$17.9 $11.2 $5.8
Liquidity ($USD Millions)$841.0 $910.8 $860.3

Note: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Year-over-Year (YoY) Snapshot

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$120.6 $114.4 +$6.2M
Diluted EPS ($USD)-0.24 -0.21 +$0.03
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$131.9 $123.6 +$8.3M

Consensus vs Actual (EPS)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-0.188 [GetEstimates]*-0.208 [GetEstimates]*-0.190 [GetEstimates]*
EPS Actual ($USD)-0.23 [GetEstimates]*-0.22 [GetEstimates]*-0.21
Beat/MissMissMissMiss

Note: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs (Product/Execution)

KPIValueNotes
QSE-5 Energy Density844 Wh/L Product performance benchmark (B-sample)
Fast Charge10%→80% just over 12 minutes Speed metric shared with customers
Low Temp OperationDown to -30°C Performance at cold conditions
UN 38.3Passed Safety test enabling higher-volume shipments
Cobra StatusAhead of schedule; baseline target Q2 Order-of-magnitude separator productivity vs Raptor
Murata CollaborationFirst phase announced Ceramics scale-up partner

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
CapExFY 2025$45–$75M $45–$75M Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA LossFY 2025$250–$280M $250–$280M Maintained
Cash RunwayMultiyearInto 2H 2028 Into 2H 2028 Maintained
Cobra Baseline2025 MilestoneBaseline transition in 2025 Ahead of schedule; baseline in Q2 Raised (accelerated)
QSE-5 B1 Shipments2025 MilestoneShip B1 samples in 2025 On track Maintained
EPS TrajectoryFY 2025N/A“Roughly flat” commentary New commentary

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Technology scale-up (Raptor→Cobra)Raptor baseline set; Cobra equipment released; transition expected 2025 Cobra ahead of schedule; baseline Q2 Improving
Licensing model & PowerCoCapital-light licensing; 40–80 GWh target; $130M royalty prepay framework; joint 150+ team Intensified collaboration; VW/PowerCo leadership visit; continued ecosystem build Strengthening
Ceramic separator manufacturingCobra efficiency “minutes vs hours/days” Murata first-phase collaboration for ceramics Expanding partnerships
Competitive landscape“No-compromise” QSE-5 vs conventional Li-ion; safety and performance focus Monitoring BYD/CATL fast-charge claims; reasserts safety, cycle life, energy density advantages Narrative consistent
Tariffs/supply chainRunway extended; cap-efficient path via partners Tariff impact marginal; anodeless design removes graphite; mitigations ongoing Manageable
Cash/CapEx disciplineCapEx $60–$75M in 2024; 2025 guide $45–$75M Q1 CapEx $5.8M; FY guide maintained; runway into 2H 2028 Maintained discipline

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter, we commenced shipping QSE-5 samples for module and systems level integration and testing… powered by our Raptor separator process… Cobra… can enable an order of magnitude improvement in separator productivity” — Siva Sivaram .
  • “Capital expenditures… were $5.8 million… We reiterate our full year guidance for CapEx to be between $45 million and $75 million… Adjusted EBITDA loss was $64.6 million in Q1… We ended Q1 with $860.3 million in liquidity… cash runway extends into the second half of 2028” — Kevin Hettrich .
  • “We forecast tariffs in their current form would only have a marginal impact… Our anodeless design eliminates graphite… removing cost and supply chain risk” — Kevin Hettrich .
  • “Our business model is resilient to changes in global trade regimes… partnering and licensing globally… building an ecosystem of partners to help rapidly bring our technology to the world” — Strategic Blueprint highlights .

Q&A Highlights

  • Murata collaboration scope: Integral role in high-volume ceramics; speeds and capital efficiency; strengthens robustness of QS platform via global partners .
  • Competitive context: BYD/CATL fast-charging announcements noted; QS emphasizes “no-compromise” solution across safety, energy density, power, fast charge, and cost at scale .
  • PowerCo partnership: Ongoing on-site joint work to integrate Cobra and automation into higher-volume cell assembly; senior VW/PowerCo oversight; economics beyond disclosed framework remain confidential .
  • Tariffs/supply chain: Marginal impact; mitigations via sourcing and design; anodeless architecture reduces graphite exposure .
  • Licensing revenue model: Multi-stream potential (royalties, prepays, NRE/reimbursement); specifics to be provided at appropriate time .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS missed consensus: -$0.21 actual vs -$0.190 consensus mean; Q4 2024 (-$0.22 vs -$0.208) and Q3 2024 (-$0.23 vs -$0.188) also missed. Revenue consensus is $0 across periods given development-stage status and licensing pathway [GetEstimates]*.
  • Implications: Street may need to maintain conservative EPS trajectories while monitoring operating expense discipline and timing of non-product cash flows (NRE, prepays) tied to licensing milestones .

Note: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commercialization cadence improving: Cobra baseline accelerated to Q2; B1 shipments on track for 2025; launch program field testing slated for 2026, enhancing external validation of QSE-5 .
  • Ecosystem de-risking: Murata and PowerCo deepen manufacturing credibility; global licensing model reduces capital intensity and geopolitical exposure .
  • Financial runway intact: Liquidity of $860.3M and runway into 2H 2028 support execution; FY 2025 CapEx and adjusted EBITDA loss guides maintained .
  • Near-term prints likely remain loss-making with consensus EPS risk skewed to misses until licensing cash flows and tech transfer milestones begin to contribute [GetEstimates]* .
  • Competitive narratives bear watching (BYD/CATL claims), but QS continues to emphasize differentiated “no-compromise” safety/performance and anodeless architecture advantages .
  • Trade/tariff risk appears manageable; mitigations and architecture reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, supporting steady execution .
  • Trading setup: Focus on upcoming Cobra baseline confirmation, B1 shipment volumes, and any incremental licensing/customer announcements (including royalty prepay triggers), which can serve as catalysts for sentiment re-rating .