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QC

QuantumScape Corp (QS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 was a commercialization inflection: QuantumScape expanded its PowerCo collaboration with up to $131M in milestone-linked payments over two years and extended cash runway guidance into 2029, +6 months vs prior, while remaining non-exclusive and adding a JDA with a second global OEM .
  • Financially, GAAP net loss was $114.7M, Adjusted EBITDA loss was $63.0M, and CapEx was $8.3M; liquidity ended at $797.5M and full-year guidance bands were narrowed (CapEx to $45–$65M, Adjusted EBITDA loss to $250–$270M) .
  • EPS was -$0.20 vs consensus -$0.1847*, a modest miss; revenue remains pre-revenue with consensus at $0*, consistent with the development-stage licensing model .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: PowerCo cash inflows (invoice >$10M expected in Q3), B1 sample shipments enabled by the COBRA separator baseline, and the second OEM JDA reinforcing commercial validation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Expanded PowerCo collaboration brings up to $131M of milestone-linked cash inflows over two years; first milestones achieved and >$10M invoicing expected in Q3 2025, extending cash runway into 2029 .
  • COBRA separator process entered baseline production, delivering a step-change in heat-treatment speed (more than 200× improvement vs 2023 and ~25× vs Raptor), enabling higher-volume B1 samples later this year .
  • Management emphasized capital-light licensing model with near-term monetization of development activities and long-term high-margin royalties; “two sources of cash inflows” (NRE/development and royalties) validated by PowerCo .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS modestly missed consensus (-$0.20 vs -$0.1847*), with GAAP net loss roughly flat QoQ; OpEx remained high at $123.6M amid scale-up and equipment automation investments .
  • Accounting treatment of PowerCo cash inflow preliminarily not recognized as revenue; management will update in Q3, limiting near-term reported revenue optics despite customer payments .
  • Execution risks persist: management reiterated challenges in scaling production, meeting technical milestones, and ensuring quality/reliability at volume during transition from Raptor to COBRA .

Financial Results

EPS, Revenue and Consensus Comparison

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EPS ($)-0.22 -0.21 -0.20
Consensus EPS ($)*-0.2083*-0.1904*-0.1847*
Company-reported Revenue ($USD Millions)Not disclosed (pre-revenue) Not disclosed (pre-revenue) Not disclosed (pre-revenue)

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Notes:

  • EPS miss in Q2 2025 vs consensus; revenue remains pre-revenue, consistent with development-stage licensing model .

Operating Metrics

Metric ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
GAAP Operating Expenses128.7 123.6 123.6
GAAP Net Loss114.7 114.4 114.7
Adjusted EBITDA Loss64.7 64.6 63.0
Capital Expenditure11.2 5.8 8.3
Liquidity (Cash + Securities)910.8 860.3 797.5

Q2 YoY Comparison

Metric ($USD Millions, unless noted)Q2 2024Q2 2025
GAAP Operating Expenses134.5 123.6
GAAP Net Loss123.0 114.7
EPS ($)-0.25 -0.20
Capital Expenditure18.9 8.3

Segment breakdown: not applicable (pre-revenue) .

KPIs:

  • Weighted-average shares outstanding rose sequentially (Q4: 525.9M; Q1: 548.0M; Q2: 561.7M), supporting EPS improvement despite similar net loss .
  • COBRA baseline achieved; B1 sample shipments targeted in 2025 and field testing in 2026 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$45M–$75M $45M–$65M Narrowed (lower upper bound)
Adjusted EBITDA LossFY 2025$250M–$280M $250M–$270M Narrowed (improved)
Cash RunwayN/AInto H2 2028 Into 2029 (+~6 months) Extended
Customer Inflows (PowerCo development payments)Q3 2025N/AExpect to invoice >$10M New item

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Licensing model & cash flowsFramework: upfront NRE/licensing prepays + long-term royalties Validated via expanded PowerCo deal; two cash inflow streams reiterated Strengthening
COBRA separator scale-upCOBRA released; goal to baseline in 2025 COBRA baselined; >200× vs 2023, ~25× vs Raptor; enables B1 shipments Executing
Launch program (B1 samples, field testing)B1 shipments targeted; demo phase in 2026 Final B0 shipped; B1 to follow; 2026 field testing reiterated On track
PowerCo collaboration150+ joint team; industrialization focus Expanded payments up to $131M; additional 5 GWh rights; non-exclusive Deepening
Second OEM engagementDiscussions with two OEMs JDA signed with another major global OEM Expanding
Tariffs/supply chainMarginal impact; anode-free avoids graphite dependence Continued emphasis on U.S.-based anode-free architecture and ecosystem partners Stable
Capital markets & runwayATM utilized in 2024; runway into H2 2028 Runway into 2029; strategic on capital markets activity Improving

Management Commentary

  • “This upgraded PowerCo deal… clearly demonstrates the value of our solid-state lithium-metal technology… We are extending our cash runway forecast into 2029” — Siva Sivaram .
  • “Our vision… provides two sources of cash inflows… monetize development activities… then collect licensing royalties as customers ramp” — Siva Sivaram .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA loss was $63 million in Q2, in line with expectations… We narrow the range of our full year guidance for adjusted EBITDA loss to $250–$270 million” — Kevin Hettrich .
  • “COBRA… improving the heat treatment by more than 200 times… most important technology element for gigawatt-hour scale production” — Siva Sivaram .

Q&A Highlights

  • Second OEM JDA: Management confirmed a JDA with a global auto OEM to tailor QSE-5 specs toward eventual licensing, following the PowerCo playbook .
  • PowerCo payments accounting: >$10M invoice in Q3; preliminary conclusion is not revenue; update to come in Q3 .
  • Capacity and equipment: COBRA baseline requires downstream assembly throughput lift; industrialization and automation ongoing with PowerCo’s on-site team .
  • Non-exclusivity & customization: QS retains non-exclusive status; platform customized by OEM (form factor/spec constraints) .
  • Capital markets posture: Management values a strong balance sheet and will be strategic regarding equity issuance .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 EPS: -$0.20 vs consensus -$0.1847* → modest miss; revenue estimate $0* matches pre-revenue status .
  • Consensus breadth: EPS estimates count 4*, revenue 1*, reflecting limited Street coverage and pre-revenue phase.
  • Note: SPGI “EBITDA” definitions may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA”; company reported Adjusted EBITDA loss $63.0M, while SPGI’s EBITDA actual field shows -$89.3M*, indicating definitional differences .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus vs Actual

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EPS Consensus ($)*-0.2083*-0.1904*-0.1847*
EPS Actual ($)-0.22 -0.21 -0.20
Revenue Consensus ($MM)*0.0*0.0*0.0*
Revenue ActualNot disclosed (pre-revenue) Not disclosed (pre-revenue) Not disclosed (pre-revenue)

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term cash catalysts: Watch Q3 invoicing of >$10M from PowerCo and additional milestone-linked inflows over the next two years; although not revenue, these reduce GAAP net loss and extend runway .
  • Execution milestones: COBRA baseline achieved; monitor downstream assembly throughput increases and B1 sample shipments timing through H2 2025 .
  • Commercial validation: Expanded PowerCo agreement and second OEM JDA increase probability of eventual licensing revenues; non-exclusive approach preserves optionality .
  • Guidance quality improving: Narrowed FY2025 CapEx ($45–$65M) and Adjusted EBITDA loss ($250–$270M) indicate cost control amid scale-up .
  • EPS trajectory: EPS improved sequentially with higher share count; modest consensus miss underscores that investor focus should be on commercialization milestones rather than near-term GAAP EPS .
  • Strategic model: Capital-light licensing with high-margin royalties remains intact; watch for progress on the $130M licensing prepayment trigger upon satisfactory technical progress .
  • Trading implications: Headlines around partner inflows, B1 shipments, and new OEM agreements are likely stock catalysts; downside risk if scale-up or accounting treatment disappoints (e.g., inflows not recognized as revenue) .