Quantum-Si Inc (QSIAW)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 revenue was $0.59M, down 5% year over year and down sequentially versus Q1; gross margin held at 59% while operating expenses rose due to a legal settlement accrual; net loss widened to $28.8M .
• Management cited a near-term commercial headwind from U.S. NIH funding constraints that slowed capital purchases; in response QSI launched multiple instrument acquisition options to drive installed base and consumables adoption .
• Product development remains on track: v4 Sequencing Kit (Q3 2025), v3 Library Prep Kit (Q4 2025), and prototype Proteus sequencing by year-end 2025; Investor & Analyst Day planned for mid-November 2025 .
• Liquidity strengthened: $214.2M cash and marketable securities at 6/30/25 plus $50M gross raised on 7/8/25, extending cash runway into Q2 2028 .
• Street comparison: SPGI consensus for QSIAW (the warrant) was unavailable; third-party sources show Q2 EPS beat by $0.02 and revenue miss by ~$$0.52M, consistent with reported results and call commentary .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Product roadmap execution: “version 4 Sequencing Kit remains on track for a Q3 2025 launch… on track for a Q4 2025 launch of our version 3 Library Preparation Kit” and “on track to achieve successful protein sequencing on a prototype Proteus system by the end of 2025” .
  • Liquidity and runway: $214.2M cash/marketable securities at 6/30 and $50M capital raise closed July 8, extending runway to Q2 2028 .
  • Gross margin resilience: Q2 gross margin at 59% (benefit from legacy inventory) despite mixed volume, indicating consumables/hardware mix and inventory accounting helped margins .

• What Went Wrong

  • Commercial headwinds: management “experienced the full effect of the NIH funding challenges which slowed and, in some cases, stopped the capital sales process” .
  • Operating expense pressure: GAAP total operating expenses increased to $30.5M vs $26.8M prior-year, including $3.4M legal settlement expense, net of insurance proceeds .
  • Revenue softness: Q2 revenue $0.591M (-5% YoY, -29.8% QoQ), reflecting delayed instrument purchases; consumable ramp requires installed base placements to translate into revenue .

Financial Results

Revenue by Geography (Quarterly):

Estimates vs Actuals (Q2 2025):

Note: S&P Global consensus was unavailable for QSIAW; third-party public sources used for comparison.

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO on Q2 headwinds and response: “we experienced the full effect of the NIH funding challenges… Despite the capital spend slow down, we… launched an expanded set of instrument acquisition options to… drive the growth of our user base, capture consumable revenue and generate publications” .
• CEO on development milestones: “version 4 Sequencing Kit remains on track for a Q3 2025 launch… on track for a Q4 2025 launch of our version 3 Library Preparation Kit… on track to achieve successful protein sequencing on a prototype Proteus system by the end of 2025” .
• CFO on liquidity: “cash and cash equivalents and investments in marketable securities were $214.2 million… completed a $50 million registered direct offering… sufficient capital… into the second quarter of 2028” .

Q&A Highlights

• Alternate acquisition models: reagent rental (consumable minimums), third‑party leasing, and short‑term selective placements to rotate units if consumables underperform .
• Revenue bottoming: management expressed optimism ~$0.5–$0.6M could be the trough with acceleration more likely in Q4 as placements convert to consumables .
• Installed base mix: about 65% of installed base outside the U.S., supporting the focus on international/commercial channels amid U.S. academic funding pressure .
• Proteus offering model: no decision yet to apply alternative acquisition models to Proteus; monitoring funding environment .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus was unavailable for QSIAW (warrant instrument). Values retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible for this ticker; therefore, we rely on third-party public sources.
• Third-party comparisons indicate Q2 2025 EPS beat by $0.02 and revenue missed by ~$$0.518M versus Street expectations, consistent with reported results and call commentary .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• The commercial headwind appears funding-driven (NIH); QSI’s pivot to diversified acquisition models is a logical bridge to drive installed base growth and consumables, but consumable revenue lags placements—expect timing risk into Q3 with better visibility in Q4 .
• Product cadence is intact (v4, v3, Proteus) and a key medium-term catalyst set, with an Investor & Analyst Day in mid-November likely serving as a roadmap checkpoint .
• Gross margins remain variable but resilient; mix benefits (legacy inventory costs) and consumables attachment will be critical to achieving sustainable margin structure .
• Liquidity and extended runway to Q2 2028 reduce near-term financing risk and support continued R&D and commercialization, mitigating execution risk amid macro funding uncertainty .
• Watch legal settlement finalization and any incremental costs; current accrual and insurance receivable already recognized in Q2 P&L .
• For trading, narrative hinges on installed base growth, consumable adoption evidence, and Q4 trajectory; a strong consumables ramp or clearer biopharma momentum could drive sentiment improvement versus current capital sales headwinds .
• Given SPGI consensus unavailability for QSIAW, use QSI operating comparisons via filings for fundamental tracking; treat third-party estimate beats/misses as directional and corroborate against future company disclosures .