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Quanterix Corp (QTRX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered double‑digit revenue growth: $35.2M (+11% YoY) with GAAP gross margin 63.0% and non‑GAAP gross margin 57.7%; EPS was $(0.30), and net cash usage improved to $4.4M .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly beat ($35.2M vs $34.9M*) while EPS missed (−$0.30 vs −$0.254*); EBITDA was better than expected (−$10.0M* actual vs −$11.2M* estimate), and adjusted EBITDA was −$5.9M (non‑GAAP) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Management guided FY 2025 revenue to $140–$146M (2–6% growth), GAAP gross margin 59–63%, and non‑GAAP GM 53–57%; Q1 2025 revenue expected down 10–15% YoY due to U.S. academic softness and timing of larger Accelerator projects .
  • Strategic catalysts: Akoya all‑stock acquisition to expand TAM and accelerate recurring revenue/cost synergy realization ($40M run‑rate by 2026); Simoa ONE launch targeted for late 2025; EMISSION acquisition to vertically integrate bead supply and enable OEM segment .
  • Narrative drivers include continued Accelerator strength (22% growth in Q4), disciplined margin expansion, and initial diagnostics enablement revenue ($2.7M in Q4), offset by instrument softness and U.S. academic “paralysis” weighing on near‑term growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Seventh consecutive quarter of double‑digit revenue growth; Q4 revenue $35.2M (+11% YoY) and non‑GAAP gross margin expanded ~300 bps to 57.7% on price/mix and efficiency improvements .
  • Accelerator Lab revenue rose 22% to $8.6M, driven by clinical trials and custom assay development; diagnostics partners contributed $2.7M in Q4 .
  • Strategic progress: announced merger with Akoya to create integrated blood/tissue biomarker leader; clear synergy timeline to $40M run‑rate by 2026 and path to positive free cash flow in 2026; Simoa ONE target launch late 2025 .

Management quotes:

  • “We delivered 11% revenue growth… despite a capital constrained environment.”
  • “100% of our $40 million operating synergies will be run rate by 2026.”
  • “Simoa ONE… enable up to a 10‑fold increase in sensitivity… substantial increase in plexing and specificity.”

What Went Wrong

  • EPS loss widened YoY to $(0.30) vs $(0.23) and net loss increased to $(11.6)M in Q4; GAAP operating expenses increased to $36.9M with ~$2.7M M&A/restatement costs .
  • Instruments remained pressured (Q4 instrument revenue $3.1M; down 7% YoY though up 29% sequentially), reflecting ongoing capital constraints across academic and pharma customers .
  • FY25 guide below Street by >$12M per Q&A; company cited U.S. academic market “paralysis” and slower H1 Accelerator cadence before 2H pickup .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Margins (Q2→Q3→Q4 2024)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$34.381 $35.7 $35.162
GAAP Gross Margin %58.3% 58.9% 63.0%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %52.3% 53.4% 57.7%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(9.473) N/A$(11.625)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.25) N/A$(0.30)

Notes: Q3 metrics were disclosed on a preliminary/restated basis with revenue and margins; net loss/EPS not provided in Q3 press materials .

Q4 2024 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActualResult
Revenue ($USD Millions)$34.932*$35.162 Bold beat: +$0.230M
Primary EPS ($)−$0.254*−$0.30 Bold miss: −$0.046
EBITDA ($USD Millions)−$11.2*−$10.026*Improvement vs est

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Revenue Composition (GAAP categories)

Category ($USD Thousands)Q2 2024Q4 2023Q4 2024
Product Revenue$19,887 $20,821 $20,489
Service & Other Revenue$13,511 $10,230 $11,922
Collaboration & License729 146 1,696
Grant Revenue254 352 1,055
Total Revenues$34,381 $31,549 $35,162

Operating Mix Detail (management disclosure)

Category ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024
Accelerator Lab Revenue$10.5 $8.6
Consumables Revenue$17.3 $17.4
Instrument Revenue$2.4 $3.1
Other Sales (incl. license)$5.5 $6.0

KPIs and Cash

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Instrument Placements (units)N/AN/A18
Diagnostics Partner Revenue ($M)N/A$2.7 $2.7
Net Cash Usage in Quarter ($M)$5.1 $3.3 $4.4
Cash, Mkt. Sec., Restricted ($M)$299.5 $296.1 $291.7

Non‑GAAP and Reconciliations:

  • Adjusted EBITDA (Q4): $(5.886)M; Adjusted EBITDA margin: −16.7% .
  • Shipping/handling reclassification impacts gross margin and OpEx non‑GAAP metrics .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$139–$144 $134–$138 Lowered
GAAP Gross Margin %FY 202457%–61% 57%–61% Maintained
Non-GAAP GM %FY 202451%–55% 51%–55% Maintained
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$140–$146 New
GAAP Gross Margin %FY 202559%–63% New
Non-GAAP GM %FY 202553%–57% New
Cash Usage ($USD Millions)FY 2025$55–$65 incl. $20 for EMISSION New
Cash Usage from Ops ($USD Millions)FY 2025$35–$45; includes ~$30 Diagnostics/Simoa ONE New
Revenue (YoY)Q1 2025Down 10%–15% New

Note: CFO added color on operations cash usage and investment mix; press release includes total cash usage including EMISSION upfront/milestone payments .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prev. Mentions)Q3 2024 (Prev. Mentions)Q4 2024 (Current Period)Trend
Business Mix: Accelerator vs InstrumentsAccelerator +35% YoY; revised FY24 guide amid capital constraints Accelerator +36% YoY; instruments down 39% YoY Accelerator +22% YoY; instruments −7% YoY but +29% seq. Improving mix; instrument modest sequential lift
Diagnostics Enablement (Alzheimer’s)Partnerships incl. Mt. Sinai, Banner, UCSF, KingMed Launched LucentAD Complete multi‑marker LDT; diagnostics partner rev. $2.7M $2.7M partner rev.; 10 validation sites; FDA breakthrough for LucentAD Complete Building infrastructure; early revenue recurring
U.S. Academic/NIH MacroCapital constraints cited; revised FY24 guide Instruments soft; academia 50% customer mix “Paralysis” causing Q1 down 10–15%; ~10% academic decline assumed for 2025 Near‑term headwind
Product/Platform RoadmapNew assays; p‑Tau 217 kit commercialization Multi‑marker launch; expanding neurology panels Simoa ONE late‑2025 target; +10x sensitivity; expand plexing Advancing; 2025 launch
M&A / ScaleRestatement remediation and strong cash Akoya merger to expand TAM; $40M cost synergies; FCF positive in 2026; EMISSION deal Scaling for recurring/cost leverage
GeographyNA +27%, Europe +2%, APAC −34% FY: NA +17%, Europe +11%, APAC −6% Mixed, APAC softer

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our ability to grow in a difficult environment is the result of investments… focusing on key vertical markets and recurring revenues.”
  • CFO: “We placed 18 instruments in the quarter… GAAP gross margin was 63%… strong performance driven by favorable product mix, strong output and improved inventory management.”
  • CEO on Akoya: “We expect to generate positive free cash flow in 2026… target $1B revenue with EBIT margins of 15% five years post close.”
  • CEO on academic macro: “We think… paralysis… indirect cuts do not fund our systems… If funding is unlocked earlier that’d be upside.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance gap vs Street: Management acknowledged FY25 guide more than $12M below Street, citing academic budget paralysis and H1 Accelerator timing; confidence in 2H recovery .
  • Diagnostics ramp: 10 hospitals/labs in validation; some in contract phase; partner enablement revenues included in guide; direct Lucent testing not included .
  • Reimbursement: Focus on multi‑marker LCD/ADLT pathway in 2025; expect materially higher rate vs single marker precedent .
  • Instrument outlook: Soft across academic/pharma; sequential improvement in Q4; recovery viewed as gradual .
  • OUS expectations: Low double‑digit to high single‑digit growth; U.S. academic and pharma timing are primary headwinds .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Revenue beat consensus ($35.162M vs $34.932M*), EPS missed (−$0.30 vs −$0.254*), EBITDA better than expected (−$10.0M* actual vs −$11.2M* estimate). Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
  • FY 2024: Revenue in line ($137.421M actual vs $137.192M* estimate); Street may lower FY25 revenues following cautious H1 and academic assumptions . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating model resilience: Recurring revenues (~consumables + Accelerator) continue to offset instrument softness; margin discipline preserved with GAAP GM at 63% .
  • Near‑term caution, 2H skew: Expect a soft Q1 (−10–15% YoY) and flat/slightly down H1 before 2H acceleration; academic budget clarity is a swing factor .
  • Strategic upside: Akoya integration and EMISSION verticalization aim to expand TAM, deepen recurring revenues, and drive $40M cost synergies by 2026; path to FCF positive in 2026 .
  • Diagnostics optionality: Partner‑enabled revenue ($2.7M Q4) demonstrates early traction; multi‑marker reimbursement pursuit and clinical utility could unlock medium‑term growth .
  • Watch list: Academic funding signals, instrument demand recovery, Simoa ONE launch milestones, and merger closing progress; any acceleration in therapy uptake (Leqembi/Kisunla) could catalyze diagnostics demand .