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    Quad/Graphics (QUAD)

    QUAD Q1 2025 posts 6% sales, 14% direct mail volume growth

    Reported on May 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$4.77Last close (Apr 30, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$4.76Open (May 1, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.01(-0.21%)
    • Integrated Marketing Strength: The company continues to win new business and demonstrate multi-product direct mail wins—with its direct mail group reporting +14% volume and +6% sales—underscoring the strength of its integrated MX approach in a challenging environment.
    • Innovative AI and Data Capabilities: The rollout of Audience Builder 2.0 in partnership with Google Cloud enhances targeting and campaign performance, positioning Quad to drive superior marketing outcomes and competitive differentiation.
    • Expanding In-Store Connect Network: Rapid expansion in its omnichannel retail media offering—growing from 15 to over 45 stores with an additional 30 stores coming—indicates strong growth potential in the retail media space.
    • Tariff Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Clients are experiencing dislocations and uncertainties regarding tariffs, with some already adjusting their marketing plans due to concerns about product availability and pricing stability. This could dampen demand if broader economic slowdown materializes.
    • Rising Postal Costs Impacting Marketing Spend: The impending 10% postal rate increase—with only a partial offset available through promotional discounts—introduces cost pressures that may force clients to pull back on mailing campaigns, potentially hurting QUAD's revenue growth.
    • Seasonal Weakness and Lower Q2 Results: Despite some client wins, the guidance indicates lower revenue and EBITDA in the second quarter due to typical seasonal lows compounded by the macro uncertainties (tariffs and economic headwinds), suggesting ongoing volatility in demand. ** **
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue (Net Sales)

    Down 3.8% (from $654.8M in Q1 2024 to $629.4M in Q1 2025)

    Total revenue declined due to lower performance in both the Products and Services segments. The decline builds on previous periods where falling print volumes and altered client mixes had already pressured net sales.

    Products Revenue

    Down 2.5% (to $494.8M in Q1 2025)

    Products revenue dropped mainly due to a weak Catalog segment, which decreased by 7.2% (from $360.4M to $334.1M), though partially offset by a 9.7% rise in Direct Mail revenue (from $144.8M to $158.5M). This continues trends from prior periods where shifts in product mix and lower paper sales impacted performance.

    Services Revenue

    Down 8.7% (to $134.6M in Q1 2025)

    Services revenue declined as both major service areas suffered: Logistics services fell 11.2% and Marketing/Medical services dropped 6.8%. These decreases are consistent with earlier challenges such as reduced print volumes and evolving client demands.

    Catalog Segment (Products)

    Down 7.2% (from $360.4M to $334.1M)

    Catalog sales weakened primarily due to declining print volumes and lower paper sales—issues that were evident in previous periods—demonstrating ongoing challenges in meeting historically higher margins from catalog applications.

    Direct Mail Revenue (Products)

    Up 9.7% (from $144.8M to $158.5M)

    Direct Mail revenue increased despite broader product declines. This gain likely reflects a strategic emphasis and market favorability for direct mail solutions, providing an offset to the weakness in other product areas noted in earlier periods.

    Logistics Services (Services)

    Down 11.2% (from $67.5M to $59.9M)

    Logistics services suffered a steep decline due to lower print volumes and reduced demand—a trend that mirrors similar operational headwinds from previous periods where external macroeconomic pressures and client shifts were already impacting this service line.

    Marketing/Medical Services (Services)

    Down 6.8% (from $80.1M to $74.7M)

    The drop in Marketing/Medical services reflects weaker client demand and lower print volumes that had also affected earlier periods. Cost-reduction efforts and market challenges compounded the decline in these service offerings.

    U.S. Revenue

    Down 4.3% (to $553.8M in Q1 2025)

    U.S. revenue decreased modestly as both product and service sales in the region suffered from persistent declines in print volumes and adverse client mix changes, trends that have been in motion since prior periods.

    International Revenue

    Essentially flat (at $75.6M)

    International performance remained stable, balancing increased print activity in some markets (e.g., Mexico) with declines elsewhere. Previous periods saw similar offsetting factors, particularly following the divestiture of European operations.

    Operating Income

    Rebounded from a loss of $10.7M to a profit of $19.6M

    The operating income turnaround was driven by significant reductions in restructuring, impairment, and transaction-related charges, as well as lower depreciation and interest expenses. Improved cost management and manufacturing productivity built on corrective measures initiated in earlier periods.

    Net Earnings

    Reversed from a loss of $28.1M to earnings of $5.8M

    Net earnings improved markedly due to a sharp decline in restructuring charges (from $32.5M to $6.6M), lower depreciation (an $8.9M decrease), and reduced interest expense. These favorable changes offset the impact of lower net sales and reflect a continuation of cost-saving measures compared to prior periods.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Organic Net Sales

    FY 2025

    Decline 2% to 6%, with a 4% decline midpoint and exclusion of €153M 2024 sales

    Decline 2% to 6%, excluding the impact of the divested European operations

    no change

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $180M to $220M with a midpoint of $200M

    $180M to $220M with a midpoint of $200M

    no change

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    $40M to $60M with a midpoint of $50M

    $40M to $60M

    no change

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    $65M to $75M

    $65M to $75M

    no change

    Net Debt Leverage Ratio

    FY 2025

    Expected to decrease to approximately 1.5x (from 1.6x)

    Expected to decrease to approximately 1.5x

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Integrated Marketing

    Consistently positioned as a key differentiator and driver for Quad’s evolution as an MX company with integration of creative, production, and media services across channels.

    In Q1 2025, emphasized as a competitive differentiator that removes friction in marketing and drives momentum for better client outcomes, with creative case studies like Valvoline Instant Oil Change.

    Steady focus with enhanced emphasis on integration and proven case studies.

    Direct Mail Performance

    Previously highlighted through launch of At-Home Connect and Fusion Mail, with a focus on modernization and advanced data-driven personalization.

    Q1 2025 reiterates modernization via At-Home Connect, leveraging AI-driven data to trigger personalized direct mail and optimize postal costs.

    Consistent focus with increasing reliance on AI and data capabilities for personalization.

    AI-Driven Marketing and Data Capabilities

    Across Q2–Q4 2024, discussed via proprietary household-based data stacks, early iterations of Audience Builder tools, and strategic partnerships with Google Cloud to enable advanced targeting.

    Q1 2025 sees a robust rollout of Audience Builder 2.0 and continued Google Cloud partnership to further leverage the 92% household data stack for smarter segmentation and marketing performance.

    Evolution from initial integration to a more refined, AI-ready toolkit with expanded capabilities.

    Retail Media Networks and Omnichannel Connect Offerings

    Emphasized in Q2–Q4 2024 through In-Store Connect and At-Home Connect, with expansion in retail partnerships and a push to capture growth in RMN channels.

    Q1 2025 reports geographical expansion for In-Store Connect (new retailer additions, expanding store counts) and reinforces At-Home Connect’s role in bridging online engagement with offline impact.

    Growing adoption and geographic expansion with improved strategic positioning in omnichannel marketing.

    Operational Efficiency and Margin Improvement Initiatives

    From Q2 to Q4 2024, Quad highlighted margin improvements via cost reduction, manufacturing productivity improvements, and restructuring actions (plant closures, labor reductions).

    Q1 2025 continues the emphasis with operational efficiencies from improved manufacturing productivity, cost reduction initiatives, postal optimization programs, and facility rationalization.

    Consistent and disciplined focus—with continuous improvements and tactical adjustments to offset lower sales or external impacts.

    Capital Investments and Technological Innovation

    Previous periods described scaling capital expenditures, investments in AI, digital solutions (e.g., In-Store Connect installations), and technology upgrades.

    In Q1 2025, Quad details asset divestitures, increased dividend and share repurchases, and continued R&D in digital tools (e.g., Audience Builder 2.0, Household Fusion) to drive growth.

    Ongoing commitment with a shift toward balancing innovation investments with shareholder-return initiatives.

    Balance Sheet Strengthening through Asset Sales and Debt Reduction

    Consistently discussed in Q2–Q4 2024 through significant asset sales (European operations, facility divestitures) and a multiyear debt reduction program targeting lower leverage.

    Q1 2025 highlighted completion of the European operations sale, further facility sales, and an $81 million net debt reduction while maintaining strong liquidity and proactive interest rate management.

    Steady progress with continued asset monetization efforts and improved financial flexibility.

    Rising Postal Rates and Increased Mailing Costs

    Prior periods (Q2–Q4 2024) noted postal rate hikes (up to 10–13%), their outsized impact compared to CPI, and efforts to mitigate via Fusion Mail and data-driven responsiveness.

    Q1 2025 discusses an anticipated 10% average postage increase in 2025, detailed mitigation measures (Household Fusion, Enru asset acquisition), and client adjustments to factor increased costs into marketing plans.

    Persistent external pressure with proactive mitigation strategies; sentiment remains cautious but solution-focused.

    Tariff Exposure and Supply Chain Disruptions

    Mentioned in Q2 and Q4 2024 regarding potential Canadian tariffs and moderate Mexico exposure, with contingency plans to source alternatives.

    Q1 2025 notes limited direct exposure (11% of procurement spend affected) and careful monitoring of supply chains and client impacts from tariffs, with adjustments already underway.

    Relatively minor exposure that is being actively managed; no major change but continued vigilance.

    Seasonal Weakness and Revenue Volatility

    Consistently described from Q2–Q4 2024 as a predictable cycle with low free cash flow in early periods and peaks in Q4, influenced by inventory build-ups and client payment timing.

    Q1 2025 reaffirms seasonality with an expected low in Q2 and negative free cash flow in the first nine months, with anticipation of a rebound in the fourth quarter based on historical trends.

    Stable seasonal pattern with recognized revenue cyclicity; expectations remain consistent.

    Revenue Decline Concerns and Key Client Loss

    Documented in Q2–Q4 2024 through declines in net sales (4–10% drops) and notable impacts from the loss of a large grocery client affecting agency solutions and overall sales mix.

    Q1 2025 reports a 2% decline in net sales (adjusted for divestitures) largely influenced by lower paper/agency sales and reiterates the effect of the large grocery client loss.

    Persistent concern with modest improvement in percentage terms but ongoing impact from key client losses.

    Competitive Pressures in the Evolving Digital Marketing Landscape

    Q2–Q3 2024 included observations about leveraging proprietary data, AI capabilities, and integrated solutions to outperform digital competitors, with some mention of competition from large players like Amazon.

    Q1 2025 did not directly address competitive pressures; instead, emphasis was on technological enhancements and integrated services that indirectly counter competition.

    Less explicit discussion in Q1 2025 suggests a potential shift in focus toward internal innovation rather than overt competitive commentary.

    Asset Sale Uncertainties and Free Cash Flow Challenges

    Through Q2–Q4 2024, discussions centered on uncertainties regarding timing of property sales, dependence on capital market conditions, and seasonal challenges causing negative free cash flow in early periods offset by Q4 strength.

    Q1 2025 outlined completed and pending asset sales (e.g., European operations, Sacramento building) and reported worsened free cash flow in Q1 due to proactive inventory purchases, with seasonal rebound expected later.

    Ongoing challenges with uncertainty in precise timing, though the seasonal rebound remains a consistent mitigating factor.

    Strategic Technology Partnerships

    Q2–Q3 2024 emphasized the Google Cloud AI partnership to drive advanced audience targeting and automated content generation; Q2 also introduced a Swiftly partnership to enhance the In-Store Connect platform.

    Q1 2025 maintained the critical partnership with Google Cloud for AI and data enhancements while not mentioning Swiftly, indicating a consolidation of focus on established technological initiatives.

    Stable emphasis on technology partnerships—Google Cloud remains central while focus on Swiftly receded in Q1, showing a more consolidated strategy.

    1. Demand Outlook
      Q: Any change in Q2 demand outlook?
      A: Management noted minor dislocations amid tariff uncertainties, but overall client plans remain largely intact with most challenges already accounted for.

    2. Q2 Revenue Cadence
      Q: Will Q2 revenue bounce back?
      A: They expect lower revenue and EBITDA in Q2 due to typical early summer seasonality despite losing a key grocery client earlier.

    3. Tariff Impact
      Q: Are tariffs reducing Q2 revenue?
      A: Management explained that the Q2 deceleration is driven primarily by seasonal trends rather than significant new tariff impacts.

    4. Postal Pricing
      Q: How will postal changes affect costs?
      A: With a 10% rate increase set for July and a 9-month promotional pilot offering up to 12% off, management sees both challenges and opportunities in postal pricing adjustments.

    5. Enru Acquisition
      Q: What did the Enru buy add?
      A: The acquisition bolstered its co-mail capabilities by adding high-density mailing methods and new equipment, enhancing overall efficiency.

    6. In-Store Expansion
      Q: How extensive is In-Store Connect now?
      A: They have grown from 15 to over 45 stores, with plans to add another 30 stores, significantly expanding their retail media network.

    7. Holiday Supply Issues
      Q: When will holiday supply constraints show?
      A: Clients face uncertain supply issues, with the full impact likely disclosed closer to mailings as the unprecedented tariff environment unfolds.

    8. Shipping Exemption Exposure
      Q: Exposure to de minimis shippers?
      A: Management confirmed there is no exposure to retailers using the de minimis shipping exemption, such as Temu or Shein.

    9. Google AI Impact
      Q: Does Google AI improve targeting?
      A: Their new Audience Builder 2.0 leverages AI to enhance targeting efficiency, delivering strong performance though specific ROI details were not provided.

    Research analysts covering Quad/Graphics.