RBC Bearings - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings, and welcome to the RBC Bearings Fiscal 2024 second quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Josh Carroll, with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Josh Carroll (Investor Relatons Associate)

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings Fiscal 2024 second quarter earnings conference call. With me on the call today are Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Daniel Bergeron, Director, Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer, and Robert Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before beginning today's call, let me remind you that some of the statements made today are forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors. We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risk that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. These factors are also described in greater detail in the press release and on the company's website.

In addition, reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information is included as part of the release and is available on the company's website. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thank you, Josh, and good morning and welcome to everyone. I'm pleased to report that our net sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 were $385.6 million, and this represents a 4.4% increase from last year. For the second quarter of 2024, our industrial products represented 67% of our sales, and aerospace products, 33%. As a footnote, over the past five years, revenue growth at RBC has been compounded at a rate of 16.8%. Gross margin for the quarter was $166.3 million or 43.1% of net sales. This compares to $151.1 million or 40.9% for the same period last year, a 220 basis point improvement from last year.

Clearly, we are tremendously pleased with this performance. The gross margin expansion is derived from increased volumes in our aerospace products plants, thereby improving our absorption rates, coupled with synergy achievements from the Dodge acquisition and price improvement overall on most lines. Our profitability, we are ahead of plan in making good progress and expect to finish the year with gross margins in the low- to mid-40% range. Again, many thanks to the RBC teams for this performance. We all understand well that excellence in customer care is the cornerstone of our success. Adjusted operating income for the period was $88.4 million, 22.9% of net sales, compared to last year's $76 million and 20.6% respectively, a 16.3% improvement. Free cash flow was $45.6 million. Debt reduction continues to be a priority.

We have re-achieved a $490 million decrease in debt since the acquisition of Dodge in November of 2021, 24 months ago. We've now have achieved a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.71 over the trailing twelve months, down from 5.65 from fiscal 2022. RBC's record of EBITDA growth over the last five years now stands at 19.9%. Adjusted EPS was $2.17 a share. Adjusted EBITDA was $122.1 million, 31.7% of net sales, compared to $108.8 million, 29.5% of net sales last year, a 12.2% increase.

Overall, we are proud of the continual improvements made in the execution of our business and are excited to see the robust acceleration and demand for our products from industry leaders in the aircraft, marine, and space industries. We look forward to a March year-end, with revenues finishing between $155 million and $1.6 billion range. On the industrial businesses, during the quarter, the industrial growth was -2.8% overall against some pretty strong comps last year. At that time, improved supply chain performance allowed us to ship orders which were late to customers, creating a bulge in revenues. Dodge revenues were down 4.4% year-to-date, and we expect to be up in Q3 a few percentage points, in this, on this measure.

RBC classic industrial sales were up 1.7% during the same period, and we had very little supply chain impact on the classic side of our industrial business. On aerospace and defense, commercial aerospace was up 24.9%. The aerospace and defense sector was up 22.9% overall. OEM defense includes components for, and assemblies for jets, missiles, helicopters, marine valves, satellites, and rockets. Aftermarket was up 26.1%. The main drivers here are jets, helicopters, and jet engines. The aerospace market is now strongly accelerating, with volumes increasing quarterly. The demand drivers here are, of course, the large plane builders and their supply chain, all in support of production for Boeing and Airbus ships. Also, the private aircraft builders and of course, the many subcontractors who support the industry.

Currently, the OEM is building 737 ships at a 30-38 per month rate. New orders to RBC are inbound at about a 42 ship per month rate and moving to a 47 per month rate soon. On the 787, our current build rate numbers are approximately four per month and moving to seven per month order rate by April. This has a substantial impact to us. Airbus is pursuing the build rate on the 320 ships at about 70 ships per month as they exit 2024. As is typical of these products today, RBC generates approximately 70% of its sales from sole source or primary sourced positions. Our customers trust us. In summary, let's go over the highlight reel.

For Q2, sales were up 4.4% for the period. EBITDA, $122.1 million, up 12.2%. Adjusted net income, $68.9 million, up 11.3%. Full year guidance, revenues $1.55 billion-$1.6 billion. Gross margins expected to be in the low to mid-forties. Debt paydown since November 2021 is $490 million. Trailing EBITDA to net debt today is 2.71. And over half of our revenues are to replace products that are consumed in use. Regarding our third quarter for 2024, we are expecting sales to be somewhere between $370 million and $380 million range. I'll now turn the meeting over to Rob Sullivan, our CFO, for some details on the financials.

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Thank you, Mike. SG&A for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $60.5 million, compared to $57.5 million for the same period last year. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A was 15.7% for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to 15.6% for the same period last year. Other operating expenses for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 totaled $18 million, compared to $21.6 million for the same period last year. For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, other operating expenses included $17.6 million of amortization of intangible assets, $0.3 million of restructuring costs, and $0.1 million of other items.

For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, other operating expenses consisted primarily of $16.8 million of amortization of intangible assets, $4.0 million of costs associated with the Dodge acquisition, and $0.8 million of other items. Operating income was $87.8 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to operating income of $72 million for the same period in fiscal 2023. Excluding approximately $0.6 million of restructuring costs, adjusted operating income was $88.4 million or 22.9% of sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Excluding approximately $4 million of acquisition costs, adjusted operating income for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 was $76 million, or 20.6% of sales.

Interest expense for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $20.1 million, compared to $18.3 million for the same period last year. For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported net income of $51.7 million, compared to $43.8 million for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, net income was $68.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to $61.9 million for the same period last year. Net income attributable to common stockholders for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $45.9 million, compared to $38.1 million for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to common stockholders for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $63.2 million, compared to $56.2 million for the same period last year.

Diluted earnings per share attributable to common stockholders was $1.58 per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to $1.31 per share for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, diluted earnings per share attributable to common stockholders for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $2.17 per share, compared to $1.93 for the same period last year. Turning to cash flow, the company generated $53.1 million in cash from operating activities in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to $29.4 million for the same period last year. Capital expenditures were $7.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to $15.2 million for the same period last year.

We paid down $40 million on the term loan during the period, which was partially offset by drawing $18 million on the revolver for the acquisition of Specline, leaving total debt of $1.32 billion as of September thirtieth.

And cash on hand was $56.6 million. I would now like to turn the call back to the operator for the question and answer session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

Hey, good, good morning, guys. How are you?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Good morning, Kristine.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

You know, maybe focusing on the industrial end market, we saw, you know, a year-over-year decline in revenue and a sequential decline as well. Can you give more color regarding what you're seeing regarding demand signals from your customers by the different end markets you're serving, and how you expect the rest of the year to shape up?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, we'll try. Let's see.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

I know that's a big question.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Well, when we look at our, our industrial end markets, you know, overall they're steady. You know, when I look at, you know, Dodge's second quarter. You know, year-to-date on Dodge, they're up, they're up 2.2%. So when I look at, when I look at Dodge's second quarter, I mean, there's, there's basically, it's a 50/50 split between some, between international and, and, supply chain, the supply chain catch-up that, that happened last year, that, you know, affects the comps in a negative way. And when I look at the international piece, most of that is timing, based upon, you know, or big orders that were, were, received, but product wasn't, wasn't completed in the quarter. So I think that, I think that should normalize itself, and the, and the supply chain is pretty much.

Has pretty much normalized. And now those industrial end markets, some are up and some are down, but overall, they're about, they're pretty steady. And the ones that are up are oil and gas, aggregate, food and beverage, to give you three. And the ones that are down are semicon, warehousing, and construction and mining equipment makers. So, you know, one is offsetting the other and the whole thing seems to be steady. We expect the industrial business to be up a few percent, percentage points in the third quarter on a quarter-to-quarter comp basis, and to be, you know, pretty much steady in the fourth quarter with last year, maybe up a few percent.

It's just, you know, it's hard to project that given, you know, what the Fed is doing, and what you hear for GDP growth, and what you see for employment figures, and then all that has to be sort of put into the stew and stirred around and comes up with some sort of an industrial projection on what your business is going to do. And I don't think anybody really does that well.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

Great. It's really helpful context. Looking at the margins, is there a margin differential between oil and gas, aggregate, and food beverage that are doing well versus the ones under some pressure, like semiconductors, warehousing, construction, and mining equipment? Like, is there one that's more profitable than the others in terms of a overall bucket perspective?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Well, the ones that are down, semicon is fine, and construction and mining is okay. It's not a barn burner. But warehousing is pretty weak profitability-wise. So the ones that are up are stronger than the ones that are, some of the markets that are off a little bit. To some extent, you know, we're rationalizing our offering in some of those markets where the margins are compressed, and so, you know, over a longer period, that'll, that will affect our revenue line, too. It'll be.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

Thank you.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

It'll be a second-order effect, but it'll be in effect.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

Great. Thank you for the color. If I could sneak a third one in. If we look at gross margin, I mean, gross margin at 43.1% in the quarter, 43.2% adjusted, is a pretty high bar for you guys. That's great performance. Can you talk about the drivers of this regarding the synergies you're able to extract from Dodge? And I know, you know, the first few years of the transaction is generally more plant-focused, but are you starting to do more of the shifting to low-cost manufacturing and trying to get more of the next step of the synergy plan from the deals?

Daniel Bergeron (Director, VP, and COO)

Yeah, Christine, it's Dan. For the six-month period, we're up about 1,100 basis points on EBITDA margin for Dodge, driven by a lot by the synergies. That puts us at about, you know, $70 million-$80 million of synergy based on a run rate of $700 million in sales. Done pretty quickly and get in place. I think the ones that we're working on that are longer poles in the tent that are going to contribute over the next two to three years is cross-sell with our sales teams, which is starting to really pick up nicely on the industrial side. We're starting to see a lot of good activity there, so we should start seeing that come in the next 24-36 months and have an impact on our growth on the top line.

We continue to work on insourcing product into our U.S. plants and into our Mexican facilities, and that's more of a long-term goal for us. So that's gonna to get the benefit from those activities, it's gonna take two to three years. So we'll see a lot more of that impact in year four and year five for us on our projections here. So I think we're a lot further ahead in the process than we thought we would be, and I still think we have some really good activity to come along, and we're just starting now to try to take advantage of the size of our company and our buying opportunities and leverage in the SG&A section of the P&L.

So we're gonna start seeing some nice activity there over the next 12-24 months, from everything from, you know, insurance to different services that we have to acquire. We're just a bigger company now, and we have a little more leverage in negotiating contracts. So we're pretty happy where we are in the process right now.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I might add one other thing, Kristine, is that, you know, the Dodge plants in the U.S. are pretty full with production, which makes it a little bit difficult for us to expand production for new products and to expand our lines. And so, in February, our new plant for Dodge will be completed in Tecate, where we're adding 100,000 sq ft and moving some of the Dodge operations into Tecate to open up floor space in the United States for new product lines. And so we're pretty excited about that.

It not only opens up floor space in the United States for new product growth, which has been constrained by supply chain support, but it also allows us to, you know, achieve economic benefits in labor cost and on products that have been under stress. So, yeah, I think we have big hopes for that new plant.

Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Researc)

Great. Thank you for the color, guys.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Please proceed with your question.

Pete Skibitski (Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. Nice performance.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thank you, Pete.

Pete Skibitski (Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Hey, hey, Mike, I was wondering if I could ask you a big picture question, just because you, you know, in industrial, you do touch so many end markets. You know, obviously we've seen kind of ISMs be below 50 here in the U.S. for about a year now, and people think Europe is already in a recession. But things are, you know, things have slowed a bit in industrial, organically, it seems like, but, but not, you know. So your factories were full still. So just wondering, what does it feel like to you? Does it feel like we're kind of in the late part of a cycle, or do you think all the federal spending is kind of offsetting it for you guys? How does it feel like to you? You know, are we deep in a recession?

I'm just wondering, given all the end markets that you touch and the visibility that you have, just kind of your gut feel.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, I think right now we're kind of drifting with the tide in terms of, you know, economic demand in the industrial. I don't think we're, you know, gaining ground in any great way, and we're not losing. We're staying about even. I mean, you can grow industrial if you can grow your market share and if you have some interesting new products to introduce. So to some extent, you have to make your own wind. And so, you know, we're building wind machines. So that's how we see it. That's how we see it.

Pete Skibitski (Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Yeah.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Um.

Pete Skibitski (Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

That, that's fair. No, it makes sense to me. It makes sense to me. And I guess, to the extent you have, I imagine maybe you guys are lightening up on pricing in certain areas because it's a little bit of a disinflationary environment, but I guess to the extent that you have new product introductions, I don't know how widespread they are, but maybe that gives you an opportunity on price. Is that the way to think about it?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, well, you know, we're... You know, when we bought Dodge 2 years ago, you know, we you know, I think the first order of business is to kind of get your fingernails into the business and figure out, you know, how to improve it and how to synergize it with RBC and all that, all that sort of thing. And I would say that took an endless amount of meetings. So, you know, your product development isn't on the forefront. And so, you know, after the first year, we started you know, pulling out what new products they've been developing for the last 5 years that are ready for commercialization and found some very promising ones.

We also found that in some of their product cases, their sales were constrained by the ability of their supply chain to increase production. And the supply chain was unwilling to increase production because they were happy with whatever they were getting for the production they were making. So, you know, based on that, we decided that, hey, listen, you know, these are well-accepted products in the marketplace, and if we produce more, there is a market for them. And so how do we produce more? And the answer to that came that we need to open up floor space for production equipment for these particular items. And so hence, a new plant in Tecate is constructed, and off we go.

And so that's kind of, you know, I mean, we'll get DODGE cooking, but it's, you know, it wasn't the first order of priority, and it usually never is with a new acquisition. You know, it takes some time to, you know, to go through the motions and, and so we've, you know, we're beyond that now, and we're into the growth mode.

Speaker 11

That's great. I appreciate the call. I'll get back in queue.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Morning, guys.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Morning, Steve.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Your industrial segment outperformed some of the other public bearing companies on the top line this quarter. Do you think that's all end market exposure, or are there some other structural differences between DODGE and the public competitors that make your platform more resilient?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

We're just better than everybody. You know, we service the same end markets, you know, it's in many cases, there's great overlap with some of our end markets and to some extent, some of our products. So, you know, I think we do an exceptional job at Dodge and in customer service and customer support, and it's really well recognized. So we don't test anybody's loyalty. And in times like this, where you're sort of drifting with the industrial tide, you definitely want to be a leader in a company that the customers can trust.

That's kind of where we are. I think that's accruing to our benefit.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Well, and it certainly seems to be accruing to the margins. You know, incremental margin in 1Q is 52%. Industrial margin was up 570 basis points to almost 27%. As I look at this quarter, consolidated incremental was 75%, which is pretty amazing. Did you see a similar result in the industrial segment in 2Q, margin-wise?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Yeah. Yeah, the Q2 margins in industrial look very similar to what you saw in Q1. Sustained strength there.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

We're saying all this is primarily Dodge synergy?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

I think the DODGE synergy is absolutely driving their growth. It's the 1,100 basis points that Dan talked about earlier, 1,100%. But the RBC Industrial products margins have done well as, you know, as well. So it's really been across the entire segment that we've seen a lot of strength in industrial.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And just, you know, with the industrial environment becoming increasingly dynamic, and Mike, you referenced that we're kind of drifting along, is there any chance that you'll give us segment margins in the release so we can have more informed conversations on the earnings calls?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Yeah, we can, we can certainly look at that. You know, it's obviously in the queue every quarter, but we can look at breaking it out in future releases for you.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, I mean, you.

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

But the story is that.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah.

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Yeah, the story is that the industrial margins are still, you know, around the 45% mark. Aerospace margins ticked up this quarter, you know, less than a point, but they're definitely up, which is the trend that we were looking for as the plants continue to pick up the capacity with the increased build rates. And I suspect we'll continue to see that as well. We should see the aerospace gross margins at this quarter, on an adjusted basis, we were at 40%, and I think we'll continue to see that grow from there in the future periods.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Yeah, it, it would be great to get that data in real time with the rest of the release, just, so we can update our models before the call. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Larry on for Seth this morning. Just wanted to—you know, I was wondering about the Specline acquisition, if you could give a little bit, a little bit more color on that and what your expectations are for Specline going forward.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Sure. Well, just to kind of reframe Specline. Specline produces line, spherical plain bearings, and rod ends for aerospace customers. That's their business. They basically have the same customer base as RBC. Very similar products, in some cases, identical. So we're comfortable with their markets, their manufacturing methods. We're very aligned here with Specline and how they ran the business. So the acquisition gave us more plant capacity in a very high-demand environment. And it gave us a trained workforce and made our lines more important to our largest customers. So this really hit all of the must-haves for an acquisition for us. That's our acquisition checklist right there.

And so, the owners decided to retire and were looking for a home for their business. We learned about it, and so that's sort of the background story behind the acquisition.

Speaker 11

Gotcha. Appreciate that color. And, you know, you mentioned your net debt now down to about 2.7x. And I know you guys had it bent towards aerospace and defense, looking, you know, looking to bolster that business. Are you guys still looking? And, you know, what does the pipeline look like, like for you guys in terms of, you know, the acquisition pipeline?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, we're certainly still looking.

Speaker 11

Mm-hmm.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

We don't have anything in the immediate crosshairs. You know, we have concepts and ideas and theories, and we're studying the current candidates, but you know, there's nothing that immediately actionable.

Speaker 11

Okay, gotcha. And then just turning to aerospace and defense. You know, you guys, you know, the first quarter growth rates, you know, about above 22%. And, you know, you guys mentioned, you know, the increased build rates. Are you expecting growth to accelerate in the back half of the year, or should we kind of think about, you know, tapping the brakes here a little bit and, you know, not getting too overzealous?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, I'll tell you, right, right now, we're going through a process with all of the, all of the companies, but we're, we're particularly paying attention to the aerospace and defense companies on a five-year plan, you know, and what their content is per ship and how many ships and so on and so forth. And do we have enough floor space? You know, because you just... You know, if your business in aerospace is gonna jump 25% next year, you can't, you can't put everything in place to support that kind of a jump if you don't have it already. And right now, we're, we're exceeding, you know, where we were in 2019 before the pandemic.

And so we know we're good to go in terms of what our current steady state demand is. But to tell you the truth, we're standing on our tippy toes in terms of the capacity that we have, the number of people that we have, so on and so forth, to support what we see coming into our order book. So, yeah, I'd say that we're gonna be. Next year looks like a very strong year for us. In the aerospace defense segment, there's, unless some world event happens that throws the whole thing into a tailspin, you know, we're gonna be substantially strong next year in those markets.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Really appreciate the color, guys. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Hi. Thanks. This is Vivek Srivastava on for, Joe. My first question is on, your SG&A as a percentage of sales. It definitely came in much better than, the previous guidance. Just curious, what caused the upside surprise, and, how much of it was, driven by synergies specifically? And then just very quickly, the stock comp also stepped down. So going forward, any indication on what should be a more reasonable stock comp expectation?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, there was some favorability that we experienced in certain fringe costs and timing of different items that had come in in Q1 that weren't repeating in Q2. So that offered some improvement on the SG&A as a percentage of sales. There was the temporary, you know, reduction in stock comp expense. I expect Q3 stock comp to be $4.3 million, compared to the three point seven we saw this quarter. So, you know, we had favorability in some of the variable costs that came in, which really drove the nice quarter. But as we discussed or as we put out there in the release, as a percentage of sales, next quarter, we're thinking, you know, somewhere between 17%-7.5%.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

That's helpful. And maybe just on the new plant, great to hear that you're freeing up more floor space. But just maybe in the medium term, as this new plant comes through, how should we think about maybe some productivity headwinds or any elevated cost you would point out, because of the plant coming up?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

Yeah. For the Tecate plant that Dr. Hartnett was talking about, we don't expect to see a real disruption there and or a big cost impact.

To capitalize that plant and its, and the floor space over the next 12-24 months. So it should fall, you know.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Okay.

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

You know, normal CapEx, and so.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Great. That's, that's helpful. And maybe just a bit more medium to long-term question. Just megaprojects, we are seeing a lot of activity in the projects which are breaking ground right now. Just any color you can provide on what is your content as a percentage of total plant cost, when do you see some of the benefits start to flow in your order, especially on the industrial side, would be helpful.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Sorry, can you, can you clarify the question?

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Yeah, absolutely. So the large projects, like over $1 billion projects, we have about $900 billion of such projects being announced now. A lot of semiconductor production, a lot of EV battery, LNG plants. I'm just curious if you can -- you have some color you can provide on when you should start seeing orders from these projects start hitting your P&L.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, I think the industry is still waiting to see orders from the infrastructure bill, which would be, you know, substantially important to our business. And it's... I think that's the oldest of the bills that has been approved. And I would say it's the impact that that bill has had on the economic environment so far for everybody is -- seems to be very minimal. So we do expect that once that spending does hit the markets, and when we look, when we look around at, for example, the aggregate market, we see that for the most part, much of the U.S. is running at full capacity today.

So new plants will have to be built to produce cement and asphalt and aggregate in order to absorb that, absorb that capital and, and produce the, and produce the, end items that, you know, improve the roads, improve the, the dams, and improve the infrastructure that, that, that spending is meant for. So we're, we're really at the, at the beginning of that entire phase. This is, this is what it must have felt... This, this is, it must have felt this way in 1958 when Eisenhower announced the building of the Interstate Highway System. I'm sure everybody.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Thank you.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Everybody was waiting for that money to be spent.

Vivek Srivastava (VP)

Great.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Jord Lyonnais (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. This is Jord Lyonnais on for Ron. Could you guys give more detail on what you're seeing for labor, like, talent acquisition, are attrition rates still high, and where that's at?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

We're not seeing... It's dependent upon where you are in the country. I mean, we're in, you know, heavy on the East Coast, light in the Midwest, heavy on the West Coast, you know, heavy in the Southeast in terms of production facilities. We're not seeing any problem with the, that's unusual relative to labor. You know, we're probably seeing more problems that are unusual in California with regard to ridiculous legislations, but we're not seeing, you know, the problem with labor. And, you know, typically, year to year, we'll bring in close to 100 new engineers from as college graduates and train them into bearing makers and assembly makers and valve makers and so on and so forth.

And, we're having no problem recruiting at that level today.

Jord Lyonnais (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Great. Thank you. And then, just one other one. Could you give an update on what you're seeing so far, for the marine exposure, how that's going? Are you guys expecting to see any of the benefits from the supplemental August funding?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Right now, we're very busy working with Newport News and Electric Boat on quoting new boats and new Virginias and new Columbias. There's a lot of activity. That business is growing at double digits, of course, and we expect it to for the next twelve months.

Jord Lyonnais (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks for taking the follow-up. Rob, I just want to make sure I understand your commentary on margin sustainability relative to the 3Q guide.

... at the midpoint, I'm getting consolidated op margin in kind of the mid-20% range, like at, you know, historical levels, versus the 22% plus in the first half. Is the guide conservative, or is one of the segments gonna have a seasonal step down or some headwind in the quarter?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

The third quarter is always a tricky one, right? Because we lose a number of production days. It's not unusual to see a little bit of headwind on that front. But, you know, as I alluded to last year, from a gross margin—or last quarter, from a gross margin perspective, we felt 43 was a good target, and I still believe that. So, you know, it's a challenging quarter with the holidays, you know, just reduces our margin profile. But Q4 looks strong on that front. So, that's kind of where we're looking to shape up for the year.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Does one segment or the other take an outsized hit from fewer days in 3Q?

Robert Sullivan (VP and CFO)

I mean, it depends on the location, so no, not really. It's pretty much across the organization.

Daniel Bergeron (Director, VP, and COO)

Yeah, Steve, this is Dan. I think it would be more impact on classic RBC because we actually closed down a lot around the holidays. So if you look at the six months, it will be right on track to where we were probably on the first six months of the year.

Steve Barger (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Thein with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Tim Thein (Senior Analyst)

Great. Thank you. Good morning. I just... The first one is just in terms of going back to the aerospace discussion, can you just give us maybe a little bit more color in terms of your expectations in, you know, back half of the year and into 2024? A lot of discussion just in terms of the OEM production ramp, which is clear, but maybe just some discussion on, you know, aftermarket, what you're seeing there. Is the supply chain issue has been a constraint for you at all, or just what are you seeing there? And then, again, kind of your expectations into the back half of the year and into 2024.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, 2024 on the aerospace and defense side is gonna be extremely strong for us. You know, we have eight to 10 plants that are servicing that business with different products. And you know, when we look at... We're right now, we're going through our FY 2025 budget review, and we're in the process of establishing what our revenue, our outlook is per unit, per business unit. And we usually start that process in October and then refine it in November and December so that we can put plant budgets together by January, and then we know how much we can spend on SG&A by February. So that's the sequence of events.

And so we're in our second turn on revenue outlooks by plant based upon driven by content and driven by normal in-and-out business to establish, you know, what the 2025 baseline is for the aerospace and defense units. And, you know, it looks to me like everybody's up 20%, and with rare exception, where they're up maybe a little bit more. So it's really gonna depend on, to some extent, how much we're able to produce. Can we get the labor? You know, in some places in the country, that's not so difficult. In other places, it's very difficult.

So, you know, there's a lot of, you know, operational ether to pass through, in order to, you know, put it all together, but it's gonna be a very strong year. And some of our businesses right now, if we could double the capacity, we would double the sales. I mean, you just can't, you just can't turn that up that fast.

Tim Thein (Senior Analyst)

Hmm. Yeah. Got it. Got it. Okay, and then this is probably, you know, slicing things way too finely, but in terms of the, just the full year net sales expectation, was there any change from last quarter? The language changed a little bit from last quarter, and, you know, subsequent to that, you acquired Specline, which obviously doesn't give you a whole for the remaining months of the year. But have your full year net sales expectations changed at all from last quarter?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, I mean, we're 90 days deeper into the year, so we have 90 days more information on how the economy is treating our industrial businesses. We pretty much know how it's treating the aerospace and defense businesses, so, you know, we adjust it accordingly.

Tim Thein (Senior Analyst)

Got it. So maybe industrial is a bit softer, which is certainly not shocking, but maybe that's taken out a little bit of the guidance compared to 90 days ago. That's a fair, and that's more than offset, maybe a little stronger aero environment?

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, that's, that's right.

Tim Thein (Senior Analyst)

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett for any closing remarks.

Michael Hartnett (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Okay, well, that, that concludes our conference call for the, for our second quarter, and I appreciate everybody participating. Appreciate all the good questions, and, look forward to speaking to you again in probably early February. Good day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.