RBC Bearings - Q4 2024
May 17, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings, and welcome to RBC Bearings Fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Josh Carroll, with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Josh Carroll (Head of Investor Relations)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings Fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings conference call. With me on the call today are Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Daniel Bergeron, Director, Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer; Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Rob Moffatt, Director of Investor Relations. Before beginning today's call, let me remind you that some of the statements made today will be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors. We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition.
These factors are also described in greater detail in the press release and on the company's website. In addition, reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information is included as part of the release and is available on the company's website. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Okay, thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm gonna start today's call with a quick review of our quarter and fiscal year and hand it over to Rob for some detailed color on the numbers. Then I'll finish with high-level thoughts on the industry and our fiscal 2025 outlook. In the fourth quarter, we delivered a strong finish to what was a historic year for RBC. Net sales came in at the higher end of our quarterly guidance range at $413.7 million, delivering roughly 5% year-over-year growth, capping out a strong fiscal 2024, with revenues of $1.56 billion, delivering growth of about 6.2% year-over-year. 2024 was another year where 70% of our revenues were sole, single, or primary sourced.
That's a key component of our business profile, and over half of our revenues continue to be from the maintenance and repair-related side of the market. These offer attractive margins and non-cyclical growth and obviously a continually growing, installed base. In the aerospace and defense segment, we reached an important milestone with fiscal 2024 sales surpassing their pre-COVID peak, coming in at $519 million, with a year-over-year growth of 20.7%. We expect more growth to come in fiscal 2025 and beyond, but more on that later. With the segment, within the segment, commercial aerospace was up 12.0% year-over-year in the quarter and 20.3% for the full year, full fiscal year, with defense revenues up 29% in the quarter and 21.6% for the full year.
Additionally, growth in A&D was fairly balanced through the year, with distribution and aftermarket sales up 23.4% and OEM sales up 20%. On the industrial side, trends remain flattish, with fourth quarter sales down 0.4% and full year sales up 0.2%. Broadly speaking, aftermarket sales remain strong, stronger than OEM in both periods, and end markets continue to be mixed, with some growing and others down. During the quarter, we saw strength in power generation, waste and water management, while weakness was seen in multi-industry, aggregates, cement, and oil and gas. Delivering strong organic growth relative to our peers is a key, key part of RBC's playbook, and in fiscal 2025, 2024, that was no exception.
Adjusted gross margins for the quarter came in at $178.3 million, or 43.1% of sales, an expansion of 90 basis points over fiscal 4Q23. For the full year, we came in at $670.5 million, or 43.0% of sales, an expansion of 180 basis points versus fiscal 2023 and a new all-time record for RBC. Our success here is driven by multiple factors, with ongoing synergies from Dodge, from the Dodge acquisition being the biggest contributor, coupled with improving utilization of our aerospace asset base and an ongoing pursuit of growth in higher margin end markets. For comparison, our adjusted gross margin as a percentage of sales for FY...
for the third quarter of 2022 and the first quarter following Dodge acquisition, was 37.6%, compared to 43.1% exiting fiscal 2024. That's a 550 basis point expansion on the gross margin line. At the time of the acquisition, we said we were targeting $75-$100 million of synergies over 5 years. We estimate that we have achieved somewhere between $70 million and $80 million in just over 2 years since the closing, with more to come. You can add, we have already repaid $625 million of term loan that was taken to make the acquisition. The Dodge transaction, and what we've accomplished with Schaublin and Sargent acquisitions before that, has been absolutely transformative for RBC.
Over the past 5 years, net sales have gone from roughly $700 million to over $1.56 billion, growing at a 17.3% CAGR. Even more impressive is EBITDA, which has grown 19.8% CAGR, and free cash flow, which is compounded at an amazing 29.2% CAGR over the past 5 years. I'd like to use this opportunity to express how proud I am of the team for delivering this kind of performance, along with yet another year of strong operating results in fiscal 2024, and for creating much of our own success with company-specific roles and margin-focused initiatives. We have a lot to be proud of in what's been accomplished, and as always, we'll be aiming a little higher in the upcoming year.
With that, I'll turn it over to Rob for more details on the financial results.
Rob Sullivan (CFO)
Thank you, Mike. As Dr. Hartnett indicated, fiscal 2024 was another year of strong organic growth in aerospace, continued growth over markets, industrial business. Total sales growth of 4.9% in the quarter, 6.2% in the full year, was surpassed by adjusted EBITDA growth of 7.4% in the quarter and 11.1% in the year, and by free cash flow growth of 18.4% in the quarter and 35.1% for the full year. This was enabled in part by solid progress on growth margin, gross margin expansion, with fourth quarter gross margin as a percentage of sales coming in at 43.1%, an expansion of roughly 90 basis points year-over-year, and the full year coming in at 43%, an increase of roughly 180 basis points.
Strength on the gross margin line was derived from the Dodge synergies, increased utilization of our aerospace assets, and our ongoing pursuit of higher margin mix. We leveraged the healthy operating environment to make additional investments in SG&A, aimed at positioning the business for continued growth. This includes investments in our IT infrastructure and our overall headcount, including sales force and back office personnel, that should enable the company to be able to secure and process higher volumes of orders for fiscal 2025 and beyond. Even with the SG&A investments, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded, with the fiscal fourth quarter coming in at 31.4%, an expansion of roughly 70 basis points year-over-year, and fiscal 2024 coming in at an all-time record of 30.9%, an expansion of nearly 140 basis points.
This is the first time our full year adjusted EBITDA margin crossed the 30% mark, and based on what we see for fiscal 2025 and beyond, should serve as a base for additional expansion. In terms of EPS, there seems to be a bit of confusion this morning on tax in the quarter. Although our effective GAAP tax rate was 16.8% for Q4, the effective tax rate for our adjusted net income and adjusted EPS is 21.2%. This is reflected in the reconciliation within the press release. I call this out because it's important to note that the strength of our performance in Q4 was primarily driven by our operating performance.
Free cash flow also outgrew the top line, with $69.9 million generated in the quarter, delivering growth of 18.4% year-over-year, and $241.5 million for the full year, representing 35.1% year-over-year growth and free cash flow conversion of 115%. We used that free cash flow to continue to reduce debt from the Dodge acquisition, paying down $225 million on the term loan, coming in at the high end of our internal target for the year. This brings total net debt to $1.1 billion and net leverage to 2.3 times on a trailing basis.
One item that you will want to take into account for your models in fiscal 25 is the planned conversion of our Series A inventory convertible preferred stock, expected to automatically convert on October 15th, 2024. Using Q4 results as an approximation, the net impact of this conversion is expected to be slightly accretive to EPS, assuming conversion at the current share price. It will be more meaningfully accretive, however, to free cash flow, as the conversion will remove the cash dividend payment, reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23 million on an annualized basis. This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal 2024's total cash flow. Importantly, the removal of this cash can further accelerate the pace at which we are reducing the term loan.
Altogether, the combination of healthy growth, margin expansion, solid cash generation, and continued debt reduction capped off a strong fiscal 2024 and leaves the company well-positioned heading into fiscal 2025 and beyond. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Mike for some closing thoughts.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Okay. Thank you, Rob. Before we turn the call over to Q&A, I wanted to spend some time on our outlook and how we're thinking about fiscal 2025. To start, we are guiding first fiscal quarter net sales to $415 million-$420 million, representing year-over-year growth of 7.2%-8.5%. This outlook largely reflects an environment that's similar to the past quarter, where demand in A&D is strong and industrial end markets are uneven... with some markets stronger and others softer, and overall industrial demand supported more by aftermarket sales than OEM. In terms of the full year, our outlook for commercial aerospace remains positive. Passenger miles traveled are back above pre-pandemic levels and continue to grow, driving plane utilization levels up and retirements down. New plane demand remains robust and continues to be throttled by supply chain shortages.
As I've said before, the only constraint in commercial aerospace right now is not demand, but it's supply. On the OEM side, I'm sure many of you have been following the headlines and build rates at Boeing lately. Over the long term, I'm confident that Boeing will successfully navigate the current challenges it's facing and emerge stronger by the end of 2024. We believe that headwind, however, can be mitigated in the short term by stronger than expected requirements from other markets, including international airframe producers, space, defense, and the aftermarket. As for RBC, we fully expect Boeing requirements to rebound by mid-Q3, remembering our products are needed approximately six months before airplane is assembled, and industry lead times are typically 50-60 weeks for our products, depending upon material composition.
Altogether, this points to an A&D revenue is expected to be up low double digits in fiscal 2025, on top of fiscal 2024's record base. It will likely be back-end loaded. I think that's probably obvious. On the industrial side, we believe some tough comps we've seen in pockets of the OEM business should start to abate as we progress through the year, and aftermarket should continue to grow. What's important here is the growth over market. We believe the combination of our ongoing organic sales initiatives, coupled with our Dodge revenue synergies, should continue to grow growth, and our target of 2x GDP is still our target for FY 2025. In terms of gross margin, I mentioned earlier, we made tremendous amount of progress in fiscal 2024 and are well ahead of schedule on the Dodge synergies.
Going forward, we expect higher mix of Dodge synergies to be derived from revenue growth as we continue to work to integrate the sales effort and drive new product development. With that in mind, we expect 50-75 basis points of gross margin expansion in fiscal 2025, driven by a combination of moderating Dodge tailwinds, ongoing absorption of our aerospace capacity, and higher margin new products being introduced to the market. Altogether, this paints a picture of another year of strong free cash flow generation, setting the stage for term loan reduction of another $275 million-$300 million, leaving us on track for our five-year goal of fully repaying the debt generated from the Dodge acquisition.
Our current net leverage is 2, 2.3 times on a trailing basis and even lower on a forward basis, and that's before the $275 million-$300 million of further debt reduction planned for fiscal 2025. This leaves us well positioned to more seriously evaluate M&A opportunities, and the team has been active in growing that pipeline. We expect, at our current rate, to be well under 2x EBITDA by the end of FY 2025. Our principal bias here is to manage the company towards a balanced mix of aerospace and defense and industrial end market exposure over the long term. To conclude, fiscal 2024 was a record year for RBC. We delivered another year of solid growth that was fully further mitigated by margin expansion, or magnified by margin expansion and strong free cash flow conversion.
We are ahead of schedule on our Dodge synergies, and we are on track for our deleveraging and return to acquisitive growth. We look forward to fiscal 25, and we expect more of the same. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Today's first question is coming from Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Kristine Liwag (Analyst)
Hey, thanks for all the details. Mike, you know, you touched on the Dodge Revenue synergies in your prepared commentary. Can you provide more color on how that strategy is going? How the integration of your two sales team have been progressing? I think from what I recall, Dodge has something like 10x the salespeople's legacy RBC Bearings. I'm not sure if that's still the case today, but how would this, you know, be implemented? And when you start measuring results, what kind of revenue synergy target do you think you can extract from this.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
I guess my two times GDP growth was just too simple, huh? Huh, Christine?
Kristine Liwag (Analyst)
Well, Mike, two times GDP growth for legacy RBC Bearings had historically been your target, so I was thinking that revenue synergy from the deal would be incremental.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah. Well, I think there's, you know, there's good revenue synergy here for a number of-- There's a lot in the mix right now in terms of revenue synergy options that are being developed. And part of that mix is accessing more of the world market for Dodge and obviously, RBC will ride on Dodge's coattails. And we're particularly, you know, focused on Europe and India and Mexico and Canada, and we see opportunities in all those areas for Dodge in 25. And if there's opportunities for Dodge, as I said, RBC should follow right through on the coattails. So that's...
Those are, you know, pretty active initiatives that we have underway currently, focused on these different foreign countries, based upon, you know, their markets and what we do in these markets and what we can offer to these markets, and how, how we can better develop jointly between Dodge and RBC, our market access. You know, if, if we take India as an example, India, we have a great amount of infrastructure in India that allows us to have things manufactured there, to move things around the country, to import and export, which requires a certain infrastructure that has some sophistication to it.
But at the same time, we see our many of our aerospace customers moving to India for, you know, economic reasons, and it allows us better access through the Dodge sales force to the Indian aerospace customer base. And we expect to grow that customer base from somewhere less than $10 million a year today, to certainly $30-$40 million per year in the next few years. It's very meaningful. So, and that's just one example of, you know, maybe in an aerospace and industrial synergy ongoing, based upon the support created by the Dodge infrastructure.
Kristine Liwag (Analyst)
Great. Thank you for the color, Mike. And if I could tack a second question, maybe on cost. You know, you know, when you've talked about, like, the footprint of Dodge manufacturing, you've talked about in the past how it's still mostly U.S.-based, but there's opportunity to move some to low-cost countries while keeping, you know, the higher value things in the U.S. Can you give any progress in terms of where you are in terms of that initiative? And when everything is completed, as you've planned in the next 12 or 24 months, how much more margin do you think you can get from a lower cost structure?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah. Well, you know, we just completed building a plant in Tecate, Mexico, for Dodge, you know, basically. And it's about 100,000 sq ft. And it allows us to move some of Dodge's US manufacturing into Mexico and free up some of the floor space in some of the Dodge plants for product expansion, because they are constrained in the Dodge plants based upon floor space and based upon their supply chain. So our plan is to... And actually, it's more than a plan now. We've capitalized it, and we have things moving around. And, you know, if you're on Interstate 10, you know, this weekend, you can watch our trucks go by.
But we expect that's gonna allow us to expand some of Dodge's product offering in terms of volume that they were unable to achieve in the past. So that's gonna not only fund growth, but also move existing product into a low-cost country. And so that's sort of the first step of the effort. And obviously, you know, you don't build a 100,000 sq ft plant overnight, so this has been in the planning for the last 18 months. And we're, you know, we'll be in production in Tecate with the first round of products by July.
Kristine Liwag (Analyst)
Wow, great! Well, you know, I'll keep an eye out for RBC trucks and count them on Interstate Ten. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is coming from Pete Skibitski of Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys. Hope you're doing well.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Morning, Pete.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Let me start. I thought one of the things that stood out was the backlog growth sequentially and year-over-year is really, it's really nice to see that. Was that what we should think of, you know, mostly commercial aerospace, you know, longer term commercial aerospace orders coming in?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, aerospace and marine, I mean, that's probably heavily aerospace and marine. There's some of that is industrial. It's probably 80/20 kind of a thing.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Got it.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, obviously, very little of Dodge's backlog is represented there. It's just, it's not their business model. What's ordered by customers for Dodge is usually shipped within the same day or within two or three days, depending upon the product. So, it never gets a chance to hit backlog. So that's 50% of our sales.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And then just, you know, your guidance for the first quarter, that would be, you know, a re-acceleration of sales, right? You were kind of in that 4%-6% range the last three quarters, now you're talking close to 8%. I imagine the backlog doesn't hurt, you know, with regard to the visibility there, but, you know, can you talk to us about what you're seeing in this first quarter versus the prior three quarters to kind of leads you to believe that sales are going to re-accelerate?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, we're seeing great bookings. You know, there's particularly in A and D. I mean, it's very good. You know, I don't think the Boeing 737 build out, you know, the step down in their production rate is reflected in that quarter. I think it's gonna be reflected in the second quarter. But it isn't reflected in the first quarter at all.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Okay. Yeah, that's helpful. That was a little confusing. 'Cause, yeah, so I was gonna ask you in terms of the changes to Boeing's master schedule and how it's impacting you. And I know they've tried to keep a lot of suppliers at a roughly 30 a month rate, I think, on the MAX, but it sounds like maybe you guys are gonna go below that for a quarter or two and then rise back up. Is that the way to think about it?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, you know, the way I think about it is if you look at, you know, Boeing's production rate now and where they have to be, and, you know, of course, the 38 ships per month is sort of the magic number, right? And they're talking about 20, 25 ships a month right now, maybe 30. So, by next April, we're certainly expecting them to be healthy enough to be assembling 38 ships a month.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Given that, that means for our product, we have to produce it, we have to ship it in October. And if we have to ship it in October, we have to start making it in July. So we're not gonna, you know, we're gonna be making it, probably not shipping it at a great rate. Probably a reduced rate based upon, you know, relative to the first quarter. But I suspect the year will step up after our second quarter, which is September ending, right? I suspect every quarter now will step up to match their assembly rate beginning in April. Maybe they pull that in.
But I think they, you know, I think they know what has to be done. Everything's in their wheelhouse. There's no new rockets have to be invented. It's all basic execution, and they're smart, qualified, capable people. You know, they'll get this done.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Yep. Yep, and I appreciate it. Last one for me. Defense growth was pretty incredible this year. You know, is that mostly marine, you know, the submarines or anything else driving that? And then I just got the feel that maybe you're expecting another, potentially... I can't remember if you said double-digit growth in defense as well as commercial, but it sounds like the strength is gonna continue.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, defense is gonna continue. But right now, you know, for certain, we're constrained by being able to produce enough defense products overall. And so we're working hard to bring up our rates. And so that, that's dependent upon, you know, labor, material availability, supply chain, and other qualifications. So, we're doing a great job bringing up certain rates at, in the sort of the, you know, mid-teens kind of a rate year to year, sometimes a little bit more than that. And in some areas, we have to continue that for the next three or four years to get it to, to get to the, to get balanced with demand. So, some of our defense, and that's particularly in the marine area.
It's very strong. Other areas like, you know, obviously, with what's going on in Ukraine, and, you know, now everybody wants, you know, all the foreign countries want a joint strike fighter. So that's an important platform for us. So we're, you know, gonna—we're seeing more demand coming from Lockheed on those kinds of programs. You know, the long-range bomber is active and demanding, and, that's, you know, we're in the middle of that program. So yeah, marine and airframe are really good for us. Guided munitions is another area that's extremely strong. Whether it's ground-to-ground, like that, HIMARS system, or it's shoulder-mounted, or it's a ballistic interceptor, we're on all those programs.
Right now, there's a lot of replacement demand for Ukraine, and there's also a demand to fortify U.S. arsenals. So I don't see that ending anytime soon. You know, maybe the Ukraine thing gets solved in the intermediate term, but in the longer term, these U.S. arsenals were not deep enough. Everybody recognizes that, including the Chinese. That's why they're building out their arsenals. They're not gonna do anything with Taiwan until they, you know, their arsenals are built up the way they feel comfortable. So, this is gonna, this is a long-term cycle event.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Yeah. No, I appreciate it. It's a great call. I appreciate it, Mike. Thanks, guys.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is coming from Steve Barger of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Steve Barger (Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Hey, Steve.
Pete Skibitski (Analyst)
Hello, Steve.
Steve Barger (Analyst)
Hello. As Mike, as you talked about accessing more world markets for Dodge, is that all organic channel development, or would you think about geographic acquisitions to accelerate that process?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, we would think of both. I mean, you know, but it's organic. I think it's primarily organic. If there was, you know, an acquisition that would accelerate the process, you know, it, we'd consider it, but, you know, it's right now, it's pretty much using the assets that we already have more effectively and sort of building out the teams. It's a, you know, what has to be done there is very achievable. Very achievable.
And so it's a matter of paying attention to what's going on in Europe, spending more time with the foreign nationals at these various sites, and making sure that they're well integrated with the RBC and Dodge missions. And so before we acquired Dodge, Dodge really didn't have access to these markets. They had access through ABB, their previous owner, and ABB sort of didn't pay a great amount of attention to the mechanical side of their world. And so these languished and atrophied. And now we're pleasantly surprised that we have these footprints in active and productive areas of the world that we can spool up.
And so we're in the process of spooling them up.
Steve Barger (Analyst)
When you talk about, I think you said Europe, India, Mexico, Canada, as you start to make a more directed push in that direction, are you competing against other global bearings manufacturers, or is it more against locals? I'm just trying to get a sense for what the market share opportunity is as you do focus in that direction.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, well, it's the global bearing manufacturers if it's bearings. It's sort of the global gearbox manufacturers if it's gearbox. You know, and it's in a lot of cases for air, aerospace and defense, it's you know, particularly aerospace, it's a matter of following your customer to these remote sites and being able to service his requirements effectively. And so if you have the footprint to follow him and to service him, you know, you're well ahead of anybody else.
Steve Barger (Analyst)
Yeah. Got it. And then given all the funding visibility out there from the government for big projects, it's interesting that aggregates and cement are weak. Is this a destock, or what are your customers telling you, and how do you think that unfolds for the back half of the calendar year?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, I think you're, you know, as much about that as I do, Steve. The aggregate and cement business is pretty much correlated almost perfectly with housing starts. So when housing starts are up, that business is very strong, and when housing starts are not up, that business is not so strong. So, you know, when housing starts, it's all about mortgage rates, right? So, yeah, I mean, it's when you read the research on Vulcan or Martin Marietta or the people that are in this world, you know, and the investment analysts correlate housing starts with demand for their business volumes, it's amazingly correlated. I mean, it's like an R square of 95 or something. It's one-on-one. So, yeah, so we look at housing starts.
I don't think the infrastructure bill has really impacted anything at this point. I mean, there's people that talk about it here and there, but it has not had any macro influence to this date that I can put my finger on.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Got it. Nope, that makes a lot of sense. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is coming from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Good morning.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Hey, question, not to nitpick. I know you just talked about the aggregates, but I think the prior view for fourth quarter was for industrial to maybe grow year-over-year a few points. It obviously came up a little bit like... What was it, did the aggregates and cement, I know in the earlier prepared commentary you gave, you know, some of that end market with power gen waste. Did anything turn unexpectedly weak? Was it just that aggregate? I think you flagged oil and gas as being a bit weaker.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, you know, I think first of all, one of the things we didn't talk about was last year. We had. Dodge did have backlog.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
That backlog was supply chain driven. So last year's fourth quarter, that backlog sort of, you know, supercharged the sales number as it was liberated.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
That was about a $10 million impact.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Okay.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
By about 10, by about $10 million.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
So that-
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
That was, that was the difference. So this year, supply chain is normalized. You know, they don't have these kinds of backlogs anymore. And so it's not... It's a hard comp. It's a hard comp for them.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Yeah. Okay, that makes sense. That makes sense. And then just back onto, 25, I wanna make sure I heard it. Did you say low double-digit growth for aero defense combined? And is there a, expected, parse out between commercial aero and defense in that view?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
There's no parse out, but yes, it's combined.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
And, we're just, you know, we're just trying to figure out this Boeing thing and, you know, we had all of our plans around a different build rate for the ships. And so, you know, now we're reevaluating those plans and determining what we should bring in in terms of additional business to offset any of the losses.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
That's, that's sort of ongoing. Yeah.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Got it.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
It's not gonna... You know, it's not gonna be a normal year in terms of assuming Boeing gets their problem solved and gets to where they need to be, like, in the upper 50s in terms of 737 rates per year. I mean, they got a 10-year backlog on this stuff, so they gotta giddy up, so they gotta get-
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Yeah
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
... this problem behind them. So, assuming they get into that kind of, that kind of a mode again, and, I don't think they have a choice. They have to get into that. They have to get this, yes, this behind them.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Yeah.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
You know, we'll be back. We'll be back up into the high teens again.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Yep. Okay. And then just, maybe on that as well, I mean, you, you talked about 50-75 basis points of gross margin expansion, with that ongoing absorption in aero. Is, is that kind of taken into your, your commentary there? Should we expect the margin expansion being a little bit more back-end loaded in 2025 as you kind of get-
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yes
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
... clarity from Boeing? Okay. And then that would imply maybe a really strong fourth quarter, especially as the $5.8 million of preferred drop off. So just from a modeling, I mean, is that kind of how we should think about the year?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
You're on the right track there.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Okay, very good. Last one I had: Sounds like leverage is gonna come down. Any big appetite for more M&A out there? I mean, Dodge has seemingly been a home run and is still driving value creation. So what's the appetite for another deal?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, the appetite's good, you know, but the appetite's picky.
Michael Ciarmoli (Analyst)
Yeah. Got it. Got it. All right, guys, I'll leave it at that. Thanks.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is coming from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Vivek Srivastava (Analyst)
Thanks. This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. My first question is just on revenue seasonality. Looks like this time, your first quarter revenue will be better than where fourth quarter ended. As you think about gross profit and EBIT dollars, should that be sequentially better also on higher sales, or is there something else we should keep in mind?
Rob Sullivan (CFO)
I think as Mike just kind of spoke to regarding margin, you know, we think that overall margin expansion we discussed is really backloaded. It's lumpy throughout the year. You know, we'll continue to invest in a bit of SG&A in fiscal 2025. So, you know, but we're expecting continued strong performance.
Vivek Srivastava (Analyst)
Understood. And just a high-level question, your EBITDA margin this quarter is 31.4%, very impressive. Just as we think about the long term, what kind of margin target long term you have in mind? And then outside of aero volume recovery and some cost synergies, is there anything like improvement in terms of the base business that could further aid that margin expansion?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, I mean, it's, there's no end. Yeah, I think, you know, there's still—it's, it's... how can I say that? It's really a—you know, one by one kind of a project in terms of manufacturing technology and identifying, you know, what—on the Pareto, where are your lower margin performers? And what, if anything, does the world provide in terms of technology to reduce labor or improve material costs or reduce scrap that would accrue to better margin performance?
So we have active programs with all of our plants that we review every month, and we look at the Pareto, and we look at what generates the revenue and what could be done to improve the operating performance of that particular line item, and what the options, manufacturing options, might be for improvement that would benefit the overall margin of the line. So, you know, it's a matter of putting the time investment with all of the divisions, one by one, to create a program of improvement that accrues to a higher consolidated margin.
That's what RBC is really good at, and that's what we've done since I started the job 30 years ago, and we haven't stopped yet. So, yeah, I mean, come on over to one of our plants, and we'll show you how we do that.
Vivek Srivastava (Analyst)
That sounds great. Yeah. Just last question on free cash flow. How should we think about free cash flow in 2025 and from a working capital standpoint, maybe just talk about what improvements are you baking in for the coming year?
Rob Sullivan (CFO)
Yeah. So, you know, as Mike just referenced, ultimately, we're looking to delever by another $275 million-$300 million. So we're gonna have to generate some healthy free cash flow to do that. We're always, you know, targeting over 100% conversion on net income, like 115% this year, so we'll continue to drive that. Within the working capital section, you know, as we look to the long term, which is important to do, we always are strategically looking at our inventory levels, making sure that we're prepared to strike and deliver to our customers as needed. So there's, you know, potential for a little bit of investment in that side, especially in aerospace. And we'll continue to manage the remainder of the working capital along the way.
Vivek Srivastava (Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is coming from Jordan Lyonnais of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Jordan Lyonnais (Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking the question.
Rob Sullivan (CFO)
No problem.
Jordan Lyonnais (Analyst)
Last quarter, you guys said on that 787 you were gonna step up to 7 a month in April, and it would be an important shift. Are you still producing at or still planning to produce at 7 a month? Like, we saw Spirit's cutting headcount, and Boeing also just cut. So could you give any more color for the wide-bodies?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, no, we're, we're staying at 5 a month.
Jordan Lyonnais (Analyst)
Okay. And then also, too, so for the aero guide, how much, if there's still all of the production uncertainty, how much do you guys are looking at the guide of how much you can make up in terms of pricing, or just defense accelerating to make up for the commercial side?
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well, I mean, in terms of mitigating, how are we going to mitigate the shortfall there for Boeing for a while?
Jordan Lyonnais (Analyst)
Yeah, yeah.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Well-
Jordan Lyonnais (Analyst)
Just so de-risking.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Yeah, I think we have a quarter or two of the Boeing effect. You know, I think given a quarter or two, I mean, the maximum input impact on revenues, you know, if we didn't do any mitigation, it would be $20 million over two quarters. $10 million would be sort of the minimum if we did no mitigation over two quarters. So it's a sort of an achievable number.
And when I, when I look at some of the markets that we've been servicing, I mean, particularly we talked about how strong defense is and how much, how much, you know, we can realign our schedules to bring some of that defense, defense production in into earlier quarters, which is what's happening right now, to, for some of the mitigation. But on the other hand, you know, a few years ago, we, we started working in space, and in 2024, we shipped $20 million into the space world. And, so our, our business on space products is accelerating. We see that getting to $40 million, and we see that probably getting to $30 million this year. So, you know, space is starting to become a significant component of our A&D sales.
So, that's part of the mitigation. Defense is part of the mitigation, and increasing our spares sales is another part of the mitigation. So, you know, we have what do we have? Maybe a half a dozen significant divisions that are working on various mitigation techniques, products to offset any shortfall of the for the in the second quarter that we might see from the Boeing production reduction. I suspect they'll get a long way toward the goal. Great. That's really helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett for closing comments.
Michael Hartnett (CEO)
Okay. Well, thank you. Well, that completes our call for today, and I appreciate everybody participating and listening to our presentation. Thank you. You know, obviously, we've delivered another year of solid growth and great cash flow conversion, and we look forward to talking to you again in July.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.