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Vicarious Surgical Inc. (RBOT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was execution-heavy: first patient cart and surgeon console built, instrument sets produced and moving into biocompatibility/sterility testing; dossier filing targeted for mid-2025; first human cases still expected later in 2025 .
  • Cash and investments ended at $37.4M; cash burn was $11.7M; full-year 2025 cash burn guidance reiterated at approximately $50M .
  • GAAP EPS of -$2.60 missed Wall Street consensus of -$2.48; adjusted EPS was -$2.58; company remains pre-revenue (no revenue reported) .
  • Catalysts: mid-year technical dossier submission, first-in-human cases later in 2025, plus incremental hospital partnerships (UMass Memorial); NYSE “below criteria” notice adds listing overhang until compliance plan progresses .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Built first patient cart and surgeon console; second set underway for first human case; instrument sets produced and entering biocompatibility/sterility testing, indicating tangible progress toward clinical readiness .
  • Maintained timeline confidence: technical dossier filing targeted mid-2025; initial human cases later in 2025; endpoint aligned with pivotal trial (ventral hernia repair completion) .
  • New hospital partnership with UMass Memorial to optimize perioperative workflows, education, and adoption—expands ecosystem beyond prior partners (HCA, University Hospitals, Intermountain Health, LSU Health) .

Management quote: “We are increasingly optimistic that the progress made in the first quarter will enable us to showcase the groundbreaking value of our V1.0 system in a clinical setting later this year.”

What Went Wrong

  • EPS missed consensus; pre-revenue status continues with operating loss driven by R&D and G&A investments .
  • NYSE continued listing standard notice (average market cap < $50M and stockholders’ equity < $50M) adds a listing risk overhang pending submission and acceptance of a compliance plan .
  • Financing remains a focus: CFO acknowledged active evaluation of financing options and intent to align a raise around upcoming milestones—supportive insider base noted but still a capital-raising need .

Analyst concern: timeline queries on dossier review assumptions and supply chain stability; management indicated dossier mid-year with baked-in review cycles and supply chain challenges from last quarter have been managed without schedule changes .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A (pre-revenue) N/A (pre-revenue) N/A (pre-revenue)
GAAP EPS ($)-$2.90 -$2.36 -$2.60
Adjusted EPS ($)-$2.58 -$2.43 -$2.58
Operating Expenses ($MM)$16.109 $14.978 $15.747
R&D ($MM)$10.000 $8.463 $9.415
G&A ($MM)$5.000 $5.536 $5.291
Sales & Marketing ($MM)$1.100 $0.979 $1.041
GAAP Net Loss ($MM)($17.001) ($13.926) ($15.394)
Adjusted Net Loss ($MM)($15.134) ($14.384) ($15.301)
Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted)5,856,983 5,912,283 5,924,397

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Investments ($MM)$60.9 $49.1 $37.4
Cash Burn ($MM)$12.4 N/A (full-year burn $49.1) $11.7
FY 2025 Cash Burn Guidance—~$50 ~$50

Versus Estimates (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 ActualResult
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-$2.48*-$2.60 Miss by $0.12 (more negative)
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)$0.0*N/A (pre-revenue) In line (pre-revenue)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

YoY and Sequential context:

  • YoY: Adjusted EPS flat at -$2.58; GAAP EPS improved versus -$2.90 (Q1’24) on lower warrant liability impact and opex moderation .
  • Sequential: GAAP EPS deteriorated to -$2.60 from -$2.36 (Q4’24) as operating expenses ticked up sequentially from $15.0MM to $15.7MM .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash BurnFY 2025~$50MM (Q4’24) ~$50MM (Q1’25) Maintained
Technical Dossier FilingMid-2025“Around mid-year” (Q4’24) “Mid this year” (Q1’25) Maintained
First Clinical Patients2H 2025“Later in 2025” (Q4’24) “Later this year” (Q1’25) Maintained
De Novo Submission2026“Late 2026” (Q4’24) Not reiterated in Q1’25 (no change implied)Maintained (no update)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Clinical timelineQ3: First patient <1 year; OUS pivotal ~30–60 subjects; endpoint surgeon completion; STeP interactions with FDA . Q4: First patients later 2025; dossier ~mid-2025; de novo late 2026 .Confirms dossier mid-2025; first patients later 2025; endpoint aligns with pivotal (ventral hernia) .Stable/confident
Product readinessQ3: V1.0 integration weeks away; V&V plan detailed . Q4: V1.0 integration complete via cadaver lab; instruments/capital builds underway .First patient cart & surgeon console built; instrument sets produced; biocompatibility/sterility testing starting .Advancing toward clinic
Supply chainQ3: Not highlighted. Q4: Gated components delayed build; now resolved; production resumed .“Feeling quite good” about supply; schedule unaffected by supply .Improving
Partnerships / adoptionQ3/Q4: Added LSU Health, Temple Health, UI Health .New UMass Memorial collaboration focusing perioperative workflow and education .Expanding ecosystem
AI/tech differentiationQ4: V1.0 foundation for future advanced AI features (multimodal sensing, LIDAR) .Emphasis on visualization, dexterity, sensing; system workflow-optimized .Consistent messaging
Capital / financingQ3: Cash runway into 2026 . Q4: FY25 burn ~$50MM .CFO evaluating financing options; supportive insiders; aim to structure around milestones .Financing likely near milestones
Listing status—NYSE continued listing notice; plan due within 45 days; 18-month cure period .New overhang

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “We anticipate 2025 will be the year Vicarious Surgical evolves into a clinical stage company... Our efforts are directed toward the precise and timely execution of all critical intermediate steps essential for our success in the clinic.”
  • Clinical plan: “We expect to treat a handful of patients at a few sites... The endpoint... will align with that of our pivotal trial, focusing on the surgeon's ability to successfully complete the intended ventral hernia repair.”
  • Regulatory timing: “We’re looking around mid this year at filing our technical dossier... We feel fairly confident... that does bake in some time to go back and forth.”
  • Financing posture: “We’re currently evaluating all options... very supportive insider base... hoping to structure a financing around [upcoming milestones].”
  • Supply chain tone: “We have not seen any further changes or adjustments in our schedule as a result of supply... we are feeling quite good about our supply chain.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Financing runway and approach: CFO emphasized disciplined spend, supportive insiders, and pursuit of financing aligned to milestones—signals likely capital raise around dossier/first-patient catalysts .
  • Supply chain execution: Prior quarter’s gating issues resolved; no schedule adjustments from supply; team managing complex supply chain effectively .
  • Dossier review timing: Filing mid-year with baked-in Q&A cycles based on precedents; confidence in assumptions and timeline .
  • Hospital partners’ role: Partnerships primarily enhance perioperative workflow design, education, and future commercial adoption; clinical value to be demonstrated later this year .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS: Consensus -$2.48* vs GAAP actual -$2.60 (miss). Adjusted EPS -$2.58 matched adjusted actual. Revenue consensus $0.0*; company remains pre-revenue .
  • Prior quarter Q4 2024 EPS: Consensus -$2.69* vs GAAP actual -$2.36 (beat) .
  • With dossier mid-year and first patients later this year, near-term estimate revisions likely hinge on opex cadence and any incremental financing costs; revenue remains $0 until clinical/commercial milestones are achieved .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts: mid-2025 dossier submission and first-in-human cases later in 2025—execution on these should drive stock reaction; watch for pre- and post-event financing .
  • Pre-revenue profile persists; EPS volatility tied to opex and non-operating items (e.g., warrant liability fair value); adjusted metrics track core spending .
  • Operational momentum: consoles built; instruments produced and entering testing; supply chain stabilized—improves confidence in clinical readiness .
  • Partnership flywheel: UMass Memorial adds to ecosystem, focusing workflow and education—supports future adoption narrative once commercial .
  • Listing overhang: NYSE continued listing notice introduces headline risk during cure period; compliance plan submission due within 45 days; 18-month window .
  • Guidance steady: FY25 cash burn ~$50M maintained; watch quarterly burn pacing and capital planning against milestones .
  • Trading setup: Shares likely sensitive to regulatory timeline confirmations, any financing announcement terms, and progress updates on initial patient cases; downside risk from slippage of dossier/clinical timing or unfavorable listing developments .