Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

RT

Rubicon Technologies, Inc. (RBT)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2023 revenue was $170.7M, up 2.8% year over year; gross profit doubled to $13.2M and adjusted gross margin expanded 264 bps to 10.7% as the company continued portfolio optimization in RUBICONConnect .
  • Adjusted EBITDA improved sharply to $(0.4)M from $(17.6)M in Q4 2022, approaching breakeven, while net loss narrowed to $(15.1)M from $(18.0)M YoY .
  • The team previously guided to positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2023; actual came in slightly negative, representing a miss versus the Q2 commentary that “remain[ed] on target to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter” .
  • Operational highlights included AI-driven features to combat illegal waste disposal, a billing module upgrade, and new enterprise wins and renewals (Neiman Marcus, Vail Properties, Gap, Goodyear, Americold), supporting margin expansion initiatives .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Margin expansion: Q4 adjusted gross profit rose to $18.3M with adjusted gross margin at 10.7% (+264 bps YoY), driven by higher-margin business and portfolio optimization .
  • Strong YoY profitability improvements: Q4 adjusted EBITDA improved by $17.1M YoY to $(0.4)M and full-year adjusted EBITDA improved by $41.3M YoY to $(33.0)M .
  • Strategic wins and product progress: Enterprise additions and renewals (Neiman Marcus, Vail Properties; extended contracts with Gap, Goodyear, Americold) and AI-driven product initiatives underpin operational efficiency and customer outcomes .
    • Quote: “We are focused on execution and driving even greater results for the Company and our valued customers.” – Phil Rodoni, CEO (Q3 PR) .

What Went Wrong

  • Guidance shortfall: Despite prior commentary of positive Q4 2023 adjusted EBITDA, actual Q4 adjusted EBITDA was slightly negative at $(0.4)M, missing the stated target .
  • Commodity headwinds persisted: Management cited softness in OCC (old corrugated cardboard) as a driver of YoY revenue decline in Q3 2023, an ongoing external pressure for recyclable commodity lines .
  • Balance sheet constraints: Stockholders’ deficit remained significant at $(138.97)M as of year-end 2023, with total liabilities of $362.3M vs. total assets of $223.3M, underscoring leverage and equity deficit risks .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$166.0 $171.3 $170.7
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$6.8 $13.4 $13.2
Adjusted Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$13.4 $19.8 $18.3
Gross Profit Margin %4.1% 7.8% 7.7%
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin %8.1% 11.6% 10.7%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(18.0) $(30.2) $(15.1)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(17.6) $(8.9) $(0.4)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(1.98) $(0.85) $(0.34)

Segment revenue breakdown:

Revenue Component ($USD Thousands)Q4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
Service$152,054 $159,119 $158,511
Recyclable Commodity$13,938 $12,138 $12,152
Total Revenue$165,992 $171,257 $170,663

KPIs:

KPIQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
Platform Support Costs ($USD Thousands)$6,005 $5,883 $4,620
Marketplace Vendor Costs ($USD Thousands)$152,590 $151,407 $152,371

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ActualChange
Adjusted EBITDAQ4 2023“Remain on target to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023” (Q2 PR) Actual: $(0.4)M Adjusted EBITDA Missed (lower than guide)
Revenue, Margins, OpEx, OI&E, Tax Rate, Segment Guidance, Dividends2024 / Q4 2023Not provided in Q4 PRNot providedMaintained as “not provided”

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was unavailable due to a retrieval error. Themes below reflect press releases.

TopicQ2 2023 (Prev-2)Q3 2023 (Prev-1)Q4 2023 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesSaaS growth highlighted alongside RUBICONSmartCity deployments Smart city software wins in Phoenix and Austin; digitization focus AI-driven features to combat illegal dumping; new billing module; Next Summit tech showcase Broadening product suite; AI integration increasing
Commodity/MacroOCC softness noted as ongoing market factor Softness in commodities (OCC) cited for revenue decline YoY Recyclable commodity revenue stable YoY (Q4: $12.152M vs. $13.938M in Q4’22) Headwinds moderating but remain a watch item
Profitability Bridge“On track” to positive Q4’23 adjusted EBITDA Record gross profit; margin expansion continues Adjusted EBITDA near breakeven at $(0.4)M; margin gains sustained Sequential progress; fell short of positive EBITDA
Government/Enterprise Adoption>100 cities on RUBICONSmartCity; Denver contract Phoenix and Austin multi-year contracts; enterprise additions Added/extended Neiman Marcus, Vail, Gap, Goodyear, Americold Continued adoption; wallet share expansion
Liquidity/DebtEquity financing $24M, term loan $75M, revolver +$15M Emphasized extended maturities to 2025; liquidity improvements Balance sheet remains leveraged; stockholders’ deficit persists Liquidity improved, but leverage/equity deficit remain

Management Commentary

  • “We are excited to announce our third quarter 2023 results, which include a third consecutive quarter of record Adjusted Gross Profit… continued progress against our Bridge to Profitability plan.” – Phil Rodoni, CEO (Q3 PR) .
  • “We remain on target to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of this year.” – Phil Rodoni, CEO (Q2 PR) .
  • Operational highlights emphasized new enterprise wins, AI-driven feature rollout, and product upgrades designed to improve efficiency and margins (Q4 PR) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was unavailable due to a retrieval error; Q&A themes cannot be verified from primary sources for this quarter. We note prior commentary on commodity softness (Q3 PR) and profitability goals (Q2 PR) as context .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2023 (Revenue, EPS, EBITDA) were unavailable for Rubicon due to a missing CIQ mapping in our SPGI data pipeline. As a result, we cannot determine whether Q4 2023 results were above or below Wall Street consensus for this ticker at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Adjusted EBITDA trajectory improved materially to near breakeven in Q4, supported by margin expansion and platform optimization; sustained execution on pricing and portfolio mix is key to crossing into sustained positive EBITDA .
  • Enterprise and municipal wins (Neiman Marcus, Vail, Gap, Goodyear, Americold, Phoenix, Austin) validate product-market fit and can support revenue stability and margin mix over 2024 .
  • Commodity exposure is a structural headwind for recyclable revenues; continued diversification and higher-margin service mix are critical to offset OCC volatility .
  • Balance sheet remains a key watch item: equity deficit and leverage are elevated; execution on cash discipline and working capital remains essential for investor confidence .
  • The miss versus prior “positive Q4’23 Adjusted EBITDA” commentary may temper near-term sentiment; delivery of a positive Adjusted EBITDA print and clearer 2024 guidance could be important upside catalysts .
  • Product innovation (AI features to reduce illegal dumping, billing module enhancements) and continued smart-city deployments can support a technology-led narrative and differentiated positioning in waste and recycling tech .
  • With consensus estimates unavailable, near-term model updates hinge on company-reported margin progress and any forthcoming guidance disclosures; monitor Events & Presentations page for future calls and guidance updates .

Sources: Q4 2023 8-K press release and financials ; Q3 2023 8-K press release and financials ; Q2 2023 8-K press release and financials .